Preview AFL Rd 17 - Coll vs Carlton - Prematch Discussion, DaVe86's Preview post 138, Teams post 236

[Paddywhackers]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Uh, hmmmm

Haven't beaten us in a GF in 100 years.
You're our finals bunnies
Judd's Brownlow 2010/Eddie's red face etched into history
Head-to-head record, we own you
16 > 15

Go Blues!

We absolutely have belted you guys three of the past four tmies we have played you.

This century, we have made the finals every year bar 2000, 01, 04 and 05, we have played of in four grand finals, are regning premiers and clear flag favourites, during this century, your football club has been a disgusting rabble, won three wooden spoons, been found to be cheaps and so your lase flag way back in 1995 has been tainted, and have had a list of mercanaries and crooks run your club!

We will smash you to pieces on Saturday, it's going to be a mauling, an absolute mauling. Your pretenders, we are flag favourites.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Paddy, I think Poseidon was being tongue in cheek and probably cheekily reacting to posts that said the Blues' posters were lying down taking the expected loss a little passively.

You'd need to read the last few pages, but in fairness, a few of those posts have now been deleted

 

[Paddywhackers]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Haha No worries Swoop!

I did see some of those...

It wil be five straight wins over Carlton on Saturday! Go Pies...

 

[TradeDraft]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

We beat the apparently unbeatable Dons in 2001 without SOS, Kouta and Bradley, so strange things can happen.

I will be there on Saturday, in hope. We certainly have some weapons to fight with, but all Carlton supporters have known realistically to have a chance of beating the Pies we needed all hands on deck, and we don't have that.

in 2002 we beat Port Adelaide in Adellaide in the 1st Week of the Finals without Bucks

 

[Big Kahuna Boot]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

We absolutely have belted you guys three of the past four tmies we have played you.

This century, we have made the finals every year bar 2000, 01, 04 and 05, we have played of in four grand finals, are regning premiers and clear flag favourites, during this century, your football club has been a disgusting rabble, won three wooden spoons, been found to be cheaps and so your lase flag way back in 1995 has been tainted, and have had a list of mercanaries and crooks run your club!

We will smash you to pieces on Saturday, it's going to be a mauling, an absolute mauling. Your pretenders, we are flag favourites.

..'this century' [funny phrase in and of itself since this century's at about the 10%] has been the worst for the blues, yes.. ..however, in the worst period of the blues entire history, with the megabucks fine, draft penalties etc saw us rack up 3 stinky spoons [spoonless up until this point].. ..we've made finals for 4 seasons and will make finals for a 5th season this year.. ..we also won 2 tincup preseason comps which aren't too jazzy but when yer broke and winning spoons, every faux cups are 'something'.. .... ..all in all, for the worst ever period in our clubs history it wasn't as bad as the 'worst periods' of many other clubs..

 

[Scodog10]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

in 2002 we beat Port Adelaide in Adellaide in the 1st Week of the Finals without Bucks

Shhhh that just adds fuel to the absurd notion that they could cause an upset when it really matters.

 

[Poseidon]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Paddy, I think Poseidon was being tongue in cheek and probably cheekily reacting to posts that said the Blues' posters were lying down taking the expected loss a little passively.

You'd need to read the last few pages, but in fairness, a few of those posts have now been deleted

Hehe, you're spot on Swooop. I usually reserve my shit-slinging for the Bay but you guys on here didn't seem to appreciate the more humble and reserved Bluebaggers in this thread.

I don't think we're being passive, just realistic. I'd obviously be disappointed with a loss but at the same time, given the team's form-lines, I can't expect a win either. I'd be relatively pleased with a good showing to prove we aren't done for the season then to come out and maul the Bombers.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Ben Johnson is back this week as most thought (don't ask how I know!).

 

[mattys123]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Ben Johnson is back this week as most thought (don't ask how I know!).

How do you know?

If true, great news, he can join forces with Tooves down back and shut down the highly over rated Carlton small forward fleet.

Expect no more then 1-2 goals in total out of the likes of Betts, Garlett etc this week.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Ben Johnson is back this week as most thought (don't ask how I know!).

Wow, it sounds like you do know, that's great.

He worked very hard in the VFL last week and showed good endurance and touch.

PS Yeah, Pies replay v NM just coming onto Fox

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

..'this century' [funny phrase in and of itself since this century's at about the 10%] has been the worst for the blues, yes.. ..however, in the worst period of the blues entire history, with the megabucks fine, draft penalties etc saw us rack up 3 stinky spoons [spoonless up until this point].. ..we've made finals for 4 seasons and will make finals for a 5th season this year.. ..we also won 2 tincup preseason comps which aren't too jazzy but when yer broke and winning spoons, every faux cups are 'something'.. .... ..all in all, for the worst ever period in our clubs history it wasn't as bad as the 'worst periods' of many other clubs..

In short, this century has been pretty shit for Carlton ... so far. Is that a fair summary?

 

[cookie monster]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Upon the request of a Collingwood Mod, here is my preview for the game I posted on my board. Hope you guys enjoy

CARLTON VS COLLINGWOOD

Saturday 16 July 2:10pm

Melbourne Cricket Ground

The game's biggest rivals meet for the second time in 2011 for a sold-out, blockbuster clash at the MCG.

Form:
Carlton WWLWL
Collingwood WWBWW

After turning going into round 14 with an imposing 10-2-1 record, Carlton now sits teetering on the brink of dropping out of the top 4 having lost 2 of it's last 3 matches. Big question marks are being raised about Carlton's ability to play good, consistent football against quality opposition, and rightly so. Carlton has only beaten one team in the top 8, being Sydney. From my point of view, Carlton struggles to match up against teams that employ defensive presses. Essendon in round 4, West Coast 3 weeks ago, and surprisingly the Bulldogs last week are proof that holes can be poked in Carlton's structure as soon as the ball carrier is surrounded by multiple opposition players.

The Collingwood juggernaut continues to chug on seamlessly without any major hiccups. They now sit atop the AFL ladder, having only lost one game for the year. There is no question that Collingwood is the best team in the land, and their ultra professionalism leaves little doubt as to what we will expect to see out on the field week in, week out. This team is coming off the back of a steamrolling win over top 4 aspirant Hawthorn, and a record breaking destruction of North Melbourne.

Last Time They Met:

<iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/i95NcHfIWEQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Likely Teams:

Carlton


B: Yarran Thornton Laidler
HB: Duigan Bower Russell
C: Gibbs Ellard Simpson
HF: Scotland Henderson Walker
F: Betts Kreuzer Garlett
R: Warnock Judd Murphy
I/C: Robinson, Austin, Touhy, Houlihan

Collingwood

B: Leon Davis, Ben Reid, Harry O’Brien
HB: Alan Toovey, Nick Maxwell, Heath Shaw
C: Dane Swan, Dale Thomas, Sharrod Wellingham
HF: Jarryd Blair, Chris Tarrant, Andrew Krakouer
F: Steele Sidebottom, Travis Cloke, Leigh Brown
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Ball
Int: Luke Rounds, Lachlan Keeffe, Simon Buckley, Alex Fasolo

Critical Matchups

Ryan Houlihan v Heath Shaw

Ryan Houlihan showed through last year that if he stays fit, he is a more than capable defensive forward. He will have to be on his game here as he comes up against the best rebounding defensive unit in the AFL. Heath Shaw is a proven All Australian rebounding defender, and has the potential to really hurt the opposition with his 80m surges from defense. Many schools of thought believe that for Collingwood to be exposed, their defenders (particularly Shaw and O'Brien) have to be made accountable and cannot be able to gather too much easy ball. Houlihan must be ready to harass, chase, and tackle to curb Shaw's influence on the game. By the same token, he must be prepared to run and spread hard in order to provide an option for a depleted Blues forward line.

Bryce Gibbs v Scott Pendlebury

With the success that Gibbs had against Pendlebury at the last outing, I'd strongly suggest this matchup will happen again. Pendlebury is probably Collingwood's most damaging midfielder, and the Blues' brains trust will be sure to minimise the damage he can inflict. For mine, Gibbs needs to make sure that he is not solely used as a negating midfielder, but also that he spreads hard to create opportunities for his team mates. In the Richmond game it was evident that his creativity and ball use at full flight are rivaled by very few in the AFL and Carlton looks a much better outfit when he is setting up plays for them. It would be such a waste to see Gibbs negate Pendlebury for the whole game, Pendlebury must also be made accountable.

Mitch Robinson v Dale Thomas

Usually we would probably see Carazzo take Thomas, but with Carrots missing, I would love to see this matchup happen. I wouldn't tell Robbo to completely negate Thomas, rather I'd have them running off each other. Robbo has the potential to get under Daisy's skin and prevent him from making his line breaking run. He needs to be made to earn his uncontested ball as he is far too damaging when teams pay him little attention. I'm sure Robbo would be licking his lips at this opportunity.

Travis Cloke v Lachlan Henderson

This matchup could be interesting, as it has the potential to swing in either team's favour. I'm sure most would agree that Travis Cloke's strength is the ball he can win in the air. There is no player in the competition you would be relying more on to take a contested mark. In saying this though, the strength of Henderson's defensive work has been his ability to defeat his opponent in the air. It is once the ball hits the deck, and occasionally on the lead that his opponent has the opporunity to cut him up. Personally, I see Cloke kicking around 4 goals, but think he will be made to earn his contested ball. It's such a shame that we don't get to see a Jamison v Cloke matchup, which would have been quite a spectacle.

Summary

This is probably the biggest game of the year for the Blues. There hasn't been a bigger moment this season for them to prove their mettle, and grind out a win with a depleted line up against the ultra professional, battle hardened Pies. Can the Blues cope with the defensive press of Collingwood? Or will we once again see the critical handling errors that usually occur when placed under such pressure?

Yes the Blues do seem to rise to the occasion, and yes, it is clear that we prefer the open expanses of the MCG where we can use our run and carry to advantage, but at the end of the day, there is no proven target inside forward 50 for the Blues. Walker and Betts usually seem to go missing against quality opposition, whilst Garlett is now in the middle of a form slump. Can Thornton step up and kick 3 odd goals? I'll say he can if given the opportunity, but I think he will be swung between the forward line and defense the whole game; limiting his opportunity.

Up the other end it isn't much better. Lack of defensive options has meant Lachlan Henderson has been forced to hold up a Key Defensive Post. Will he be able to cope with the endless ball supply afforded to Cloke by his midfielders?

So many things would have to go right for Carlton to win. It's not an impossible task, but very improbable nonetheless. Carlton's midfield would have to wipe the floor with Collingwood's, a midfield that isn't exactly cannon fodder. Ultimately the loss of it's bookends will be too much to handle, and Carlton should do well to avoid a messy blowout.

Collingwood by 36 points

 

[mattys123]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Nice preview Cookie.

I think you have under estimated Cloke's "engine" though, he is as capable as any tall forward in the league of running his opponent around, and he is constantly moving.

If as you say Hendersons' weakness is his speed and ground ball winning ability, then you would think Collingwood, and Cloke will target that weakness and basically run him around all day.

It will be an intriguing matchup though, I think Hendersons' future is down back, especially once Jamison returns, so it will be interesting to see how he goes on a true power forward.

 

[JollyBallsUp]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

..'this century' [funny phrase in and of itself since this century's at about the 10%] has been the worst for the blues, yes.. ..however, in the worst period of the blues entire history, with the megabucks fine, draft penalties etc saw us rack up 3 stinky spoons [spoonless up until this point].. ..we've made finals for 4 seasons and will make finals for a 5th season this year.. ..we also won 2 tincup preseason comps which aren't too jazzy but when yer broke and winning spoons, every faux cups are 'something'.. .... ..all in all, for the worst ever period in our clubs history it wasn't as bad as the 'worst periods' of many other clubs..

Don't play down the 3 wooden spoons you won because the first one was won with dad’s army after the many years of picking up recycled players. The draft sanctions came after your first wooden spoon was well and truly won. In fact the AFL was so late in handing down your sanctions that you were able to trade one of your picks for Barnaby French.
The second wooden spoon was always going to happen given the clean out after the 2002 season.

The AFL sanctions contributed to your 3rd spoon but I would have preferred they took away your 1995 premiership NRL style as well as adjusting the win loss record for all those games won whilst cheating the cap. Even you guys can’t be proud of what went on between 1995 to 2002.

How could the wooden spoon team of 2002 be over the cap?

 

[KingKobra]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Isn't it difficult to keep a lid on it with things travelling so well. Sure things can change, but with the depth and our coaching staff how can you wish for more? World domination!

 

[Jabso]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

..'this century' [funny phrase in and of itself since this century's at about the 10%] has been the worst for the blues, yes.. ..however, in the worst period of the blues entire history, with the megabucks fine, draft penalties etc saw us rack up 3 stinky spoons [spoonless up until this point].. ..we've made finals for 4 seasons and will make finals for a 5th season this year.. ..we also won 2 tincup preseason comps which aren't too jazzy but when yer broke and winning spoons, every faux cups are 'something'.. .... ..all in all, for the worst ever period in our clubs history it wasn't as bad as the 'worst periods' of many other clubs..

 

[DTShowtime]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Tarrant was doing a lot of work with the forwards today, set shots & general positioning. With Waite out, he'll more than likely go forward.

 

[Avatar]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Tarrant was doing a lot of work with the forwards today, set shots & general positioning. With Waite out, he'll more than likely go forward.

Feeling the same as pre-NM match. Don't mind Tarrant getting swung forward in a pinch-hitting role but don't see him lining up there for any lengthy period.
From memory Maxwell and Reid went forward for short periods last week (outside of how they normally press forward in the press), but can't recall Tarrant doing so.

 

[Swooop]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Summary

So many things would have to go right for Carlton to win. It's not an impossible task, but very improbable nonetheless. Carlton's midfield would have to wipe the floor with Collingwood's, a midfield that isn't exactly cannon fodder. Ultimately the loss of it's bookends will be too much to handle, and Carlton should do well to avoid a messy blowout.

Thanks cookie monster, nice work

I think your final paragraph probably sums things up perfectly.

 

[Big Kahuna Boot]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

In short, this century has been pretty shit for Carlton ... so far. Is that a fair summary?

..of the previous decade, the middle section was most definitely shizen.. ..something blues supporters have had no previous experience with.. ..sucked bigtime.. ..so yeah, it's definitely had it's shite.. ..better seasons bookending it, albeit no ultimate glory.. ..again, a decade [all up 15yrs so far] with no flag is another thing we haven't gone through [leastwise in my lifetime]..

..a lot of new ground, and admittedly being so shizen for those years was not easy at all..

 

[Big Kahuna Boot]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Don't play down the 3 wooden spoons you won because the first one was won with dad’s army after the many years of picking up recycled players. The draft sanctions came after your first wooden spoon was well and truly won. In fact the AFL was so late in handing down your sanctions that you were able to trade one of your picks for Barnaby French.
The second wooden spoon was always going to happen given the clean out after the 2002 season.

The AFL sanctions contributed to your 3rd spoon but I would have preferred they took away your 1995 premiership NRL style as well as adjusting the win loss record for all those games won whilst cheating the cap. Even you guys can’t be proud of what went on between 1995 to 2002.

How could the wooden spoon team of 2002 be over the cap?

..a bit of 'lost in translation', i wasn't directly attributing spoons to penalties, but rather just discussing in general the shizen years.. ..there's a whole host of reasons why we got each spoon, and ultimately they matter little cos a spoon is a spoon and when you never had any, you don't care why [or rather you do, but sweet F.A can done done about it] you're 'winning' a spoon, you just cop it and move on as quick as you can..

..did we cheat in 95?, who knows.. ..ultimately even if we directly didn't, promising to pay extras in the subsequent years still helps to keep a list together.. ..is that 95 flag 'tainted'?, possibly.. ..as is 93 bombres who got done for over the cap in a flag year [only proven team].. ..lions 3 peat truely clean?, no not really and so on.. ..you take your wins, and there's times you're not proud of things your club has done.. ..every, and this includes your team, every club has shamed it's supporters [and itself] at some point in time.. ..all i can say is on top of shoddy club management, the AFL penalties for the cap breaches were by far and large a heavy punishment, and in the scope of a compromised competition.. ..about as 'fair' as it was gonna get..

..i do think the club was also made an example of, not saying this in any way to belittle anything.. ..but there's plenty of instances in 'afl history' where a club [or a player] cops a far heavier penalty to scare others.. ..would rather things got penalised a little more evenly/consistently..

 

[Optimax]

Re: AFL Rd 17 - Coll vs Carlton - Prematch Discussion, DaVe86's Preview post 138

You did cheat in 95

It's been proven

 

[Big Kahuna Boot]

Re: AFL Rd 17 - Coll vs Carlton - Prematch Discussion, DaVe86's Preview post 138

You did cheat in 95

It's been proven

..the big penalties we copped were for breaches from 98-01 from memory.. ..we never suffered any penalties for 95..

..check dis..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#Australian_rules_football

 

[mattys123]

Re: AFL Rd 17 - Coll vs Carlton - Prematch Discussion, DaVe86's Preview post 138

..the big penalties we copped were for breaches from 98-01 from memory.. ..we never suffered any penalties for 95..

..check dis..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#Australian_rules_football

Please, we all know you cheated, Carlton just didn't have the integrity to put it's hand up like the other 10 or so clubs did at the time.

From the same wiki page;

• In 1996, Essendon were fined a record $638,250 ($250,000 in back tax and penalties, $112,000 for draft tampering and $276,250 for breaching the salary cap regulations), forfeited their first, second and third round picks in the National Draft and were excluded from the 1997 rookie and pre-season drafts after a joint Australian Tax Office and AFL investigation found that they had committed serious and systematic breaches of the salary cap regulations totalling $514,500 between 1991 and 1996.[20]
• Ten other clubs were fined in 1996 for minor breaches in a crackdown following the Sydney incident the year before: Fitzroy, St Kilda and North Melbourne ($30,000 each), Richmond ($20,000), and Brisbane, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles ($10,000 each).

All clubs were cheating during that period, in a number of different ways, to say you weren't cheating is incorrect, what you should have said is "we were never caught".

Having said that, at no point do I believe Carlton were cheating any more then several other clubs during that stage, and thus to me, the 95 flag is no less tainted then Brisbane's 3 in a row.

Carlton were "caught" once the AFL actually got serious about the salary cap, come around 2000 and onwards, before that the policing of the SC was a bit of a joke really, but the difference in 2000 and up to when Carlton were really stung is most clubs fell in line with the SC, while Carlton didn't until they were smashed in a big way.

 

[Blue1980]

Re: AFL Round 17 - Collingwood vs Carlton - Prematch & Selection Discussion

Don't play down the 3 wooden spoons you won because the first one was won with dad’s army after the many years of picking up recycled players. The draft sanctions came after your first wooden spoon was well and truly won. In fact the AFL was so late in handing down your sanctions that you were able to trade one of your picks for Barnaby French.
The second wooden spoon was always going to happen given the clean out after the 2002 season.

The AFL sanctions contributed to your 3rd spoon but I would have preferred they took away your 1995 premiership NRL style as well as adjusting the win loss record for all those games won whilst cheating the cap. Even you guys can’t be proud of what went on between 1995 to 2002.

How could the wooden spoon team of 2002 be over the cap?

Correct on some points, incorrect on others. We weren't guilty of any salary cap breaches in 1995, and the majority of clubs copped fines and were found to be over during the 90s (most notably Essendon and Melbourne). Sydney were a million over in 1987 when the cap was only 1.25 million!

Anywho, when clubs cleaned up their act in the 90s with the amnesty, John Elliott ensured we did not. Of course no one at the club isn't proud of it, he was allowed to run the club like his own corrupt businesses, and not only that we hung onto players for too long in the 2nd half of the 90s, drafted/traded in diabolical fashion which was obviously how we got the spoon in 2002 (the penalties were only after the end of the season), then due to our sanctions got the foreign legion in which worked for a fairly pointless 2004, before reverting back to bottom in 2005 and rebuilding correctly from that point on.

So yes I agree we were always going to be in for lean time regardless of penalties on top of that, the penalties ensured it would be longer.