Preview AFL Round 11 - Carlton v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:50PM Friday 8 June

[CatTricks]

The likes of Guthrie, Motlop, Stringer, Smedts etc have not had a taste of finals football so not sure how they will handle pressure as mentioned by footscore.

If its a close game we will see Bartel, Kelly, Sel, Scarlo, SJ etc stand up and get us over the line.

God I hope the rumour of Selwood missing is BS

 

[winty]

After putting in a shocking effort against an improving Port Adelaide side last Saturday night, Carlton will be hell bent on getting back on the winner’s list after a poor month. After putting 2011 grand finalist Collingwood to the sword in Round 3 to the tune of 10 goals, the football world was full of praise for Carlton, but since that Friday night, the Blues have lost 4 of their last 7 games by an average margin of 44 points, with the three wins being over Fremantle, GWS and Melbourne.

On the other side of the ledger, the reigning premiers have been rather slow getting out of the blocks so far this season. While both teams currently sit on a 6-4 win loss record, the Geelong side of 2012 looks to be a shadow of the side that swept all before them last season. While the loss of seasoned veterans like Cameron Ling and Brad Ottens to retirement have hurt, the side has also missed the pace of players like Wojcinski and Varcoe, while some of the senior players have either been down on 2011 form, or been missing through injury or suspension. This has resulted in Geelong having blooded the second most debutants this season, only behind new side GWS. While most of these players have shown promise, they can’t be expected to perform to the levels of their better credentialed and experienced teammates.

So, with both teams sitting precariously at the bottom of the top 8 coming into Round 11, this week’s encounter is one of those proverbial “8 point games”, as a loss here to either side could see the hopes of the vanquished earning an all important top four berth vanishing before their eyes.

The last time they met.

Round 9, 2011 – Geelong 15.12.102 d. Carlton 14.16.100

In a pulsating encounter, Carlton got the jump on Geelong early, leading by 2 goals at quarter time. Carlton got out to a 20 point lead halfway through the 2nd term, before Geelong kicked 4 of the last 5 goals of the term to go into half time level. Geelong jumped out to a 14 point lead before Carlton pegged them back, only for Geelong to get the last goal of the term to go to the last change 7 points clear. In a pulsating last term, the lead changed several times before Robert Warnock had a chance to put the Blues ahead in the last minute. Unfortunately for Blues fans, the big ruckman was slightly concussed, and missed the set shot, allowing Geelong to milk the clock and run out narrow winners. For Geelong, Kelly and Selwood both gathered 29 touches and Johnson and Varcoe chipped in with 3 goals each, while for the Blues Heath Scotland and Marc Murphy led the side with 34 and 32 touches respectively, while Kade Simpson kicked 3 majors, with Garlett, Walker and Waite contributing 2 goals each. Heath Scotland got the 3 Brownlow votes, while Selwood and Paul Chapman got the 2 and 1 respectively.

Key match-ups

Jamison vs Hawkins/Podsiadly

Michael Jamison has been one of the best performed defenders in the league this season. With the likes of Lachie Henderson, Jeremy Laidler, Nick Duigan and Bret Thornton all missing, more responsibility falls onto the shoulders of the 25yo defender. While Tom Hawkins was missing last week due to minor knee surgery, it is expected that the Tomahawk will be back in the Geelong side this week. If he is forced to miss another week, I can see Jamison standing alongside James Podsiadly in the Geelong goal-square. While the mature aged forward has been pretty much playing 2nd fiddle to Hawkins thus far this season, and even the unlikely full forward Harry Taylor last week, he still needs watching, as he has shown in the past he is capable of kicking a bag if given the chance.

Kruezer/Hampson/Warnock vs West/Stephenson

After shouldering the ruck duties for Geelong for six weeks earlier in the season, Trent West has recently been joined in the ruck by 29yo recruit Orren Stephenson. The duo will have a challenge on their hands this week, as they come up against the 2nd best ruck combination in the league in terms of hit-outs, who are currently averaging 48.4 hit-outs a game, compared to Geelong’s 39.1, which sees them equal 10th on the table alongside Richmond. Although Kreuzer was a late withdrawal last week, I expect him to be back this week. While the absence of Murphy and Scotland will deplete the Carlton midfield somewhat, they will rely on their ruckmen to give Judd, Curnow, Robinson and Simpson first use of the ball. If West and Stephenson can break even in this regard, it could help Geelong add another win to their tally.

Judd vs T.Hunt

With Murphy and Scotland out injured, a lot of midfield responsibility falls onto the broad shoulders of the dual Brownlow medallist. He is more than equipped to handle the pressure though, and will be relishing the prospect of playing against Geelong without Cameron Ling keeping him company all game. However, Taylor Hunt has stepped up to the plate and is Geelong’s new run-with guy. While not as effective as Ling, he has already claimed the scalp of Sam Mitchell, who was free-wheeling in the first half in Round 2, before Taylor Hunt clamped down on him in the 2nd half.

Robinson vs Selwood

On the other side of the ledger, Carlton’s first choice tagger Andrew Carrazzo is currently out with a shoulder injury, which means that Mitch Robinson could fill in that role for his side in Carrazzo’s absence. He has had experience in the role, doing a good job on Gary Ablett during a NAB Cup game a few seasons ago. Joel Selwood has taken on the captaincy role with aplomb, seemingly lifting his game even higher than it has been before. However, it’s been noticed that taggers can get under his skin, and he has lashed out at his minders a few times already this season. If Robinson can frustrate Selwood to the extent that he’s more worried about retribution than winning the footy, it could help Carlton neutralise one of the main cogs of Geelong’s midfield machine.

Betts/Garlett/Yarran vs J.Hunt/Enright/Guthrie

One of the biggest threats to Geelong over the past few seasons has been the pace of Carlton’s small forwards like Eddie Betts, Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett. In 2010, that trio kicked 9 goals between them on the MCG and were a big reason for Carlton beating Geelong that day by 6 goals. Needless to say, those players need to be closely minded if Geelong are to win on Friday night. Corey Enright has had success playing on quick, small forwards, having completely blanketed the dangerous Cyril Rioli in the Qualifying Final last season. After being battered from pillar to post three weeks ago in the media for ducking his head in a contest, Josh Hunt has rarely put a foot wrong in recent weeks and is playing some of his football. Cameron Guthrie is only playing in his 2nd season, but has shown glimpses this year that he could be a good player for Geelong going forward. However, Hunt’s lack of foot speed and Guthrie’s lack of experience could be a worry against the pacy and experienced Carlton trio. If the Geelong trio are capable of somehow curtailing the influence of Betts, Garlett and Yarran, it could go some way to tipping the game in Geelong’s favour.

Verdict

It will be difficult tipping Friday night’s game, as it is unknown which Carlton side will turn up, and the same could be said for Geelong. While Carlton have been brilliant at times this season, they have also turned in some shocking performances as well, none more so than their effort last week. On the other hand, Geelong have had patches in games where they’ve looked nothing like the premiers of 2011. Saturday’s game against GWS was a prime example. Twice GWS jumped out to multiple goal leads in the first half, only for Geelong to come out after half time and kick 12 goals to 2.

Carlton will be keen to make amends for their poor showing last week, and I can see them going all out to get back onto the winner’s list, particularly early. It will be up to Geelong to match them for intensity from the get-go.

I know it’s an old cliché, but Friday night’s game will be won in the midfield. I think with the absence of both Marc Murphy and Heath Scotland, Carlton could be a little light on for options to rotate through the middle. Steve Johnson, Selwood and James Kelly have been some of the shining lights for Geelong this season, and if that trio can continue with the form they’ve shown in recent weeks, it’ll go a long way towards a Geelong win.

I can see Carlton coming out all guns blazing to answer their critics, but Geelong will weather the storm and end up winning by 3-4 goals.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Good preview Winty.

I think you may be correct with the way you see the match panning out. Carlton will come out all guns blazing, but the lack of depth with their midfield rotations will probably see Geelong kick away a little towards the end of the match and win by about 3 or 4 goals.

We'll need to be switched on early, it will be hell for leather there for a while.

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

Why change things BigFooty????

As for game...well hopefully both Enright and Selwood make the team as we really need to put our best squad on the park considering the importance of the game. As was pointed out, at 6:4 we don't have room to move and a win is absolutely essential.

Going to be a great pressure test for Guthrie, Motlop, Stephensen, Hunt and whoever else is able to get in squad. Very important learning experience and perhaps the first bit of real pressure these guys have been under.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Why do we have to play Carlton this week? They're coming off a poor loss and now their coach is under fire. If they ever wanted to play well, now is the time. On the other hand, if we win, at least it means we're going OK.

They've been playing poorly for nearly two months and counting. I think I'm one of the more pessimistic posters on this board, but I think we shouldn't have any trouble with this Carlton side, with Murphy, Carrazzo, Waite, Scotland, Laidler, Thornton (I don't really rate him, but it's another missing tall wo can play at either end for them) and possibly Duigan and Kreuzer out. I don't care if it's a grind, like the Bulldogs game, but we should get the victory, which might get us to equal fifth on W-L, by the end of the round.

The Port Adelaide wasn't an anomaly; that's where they're at. And their VFL side was destroyed on thew weekend and didn't have a single senior-listed player named in their best. This could quite easiliy be their side on Friday night:

B: Joseph, Jamison, Watson
HB: Yarran, Bower, Tuohy
C: Simpson, Gibbs, Armfield
HF: Ellard, Walker, Lucas
F: Betts, Hampson, Garlett
R: Warnock, Judd, Robinson
I/C: Bootsma, Curnow, Collins, Russell

Yeah, Duigan and Kreuzer could come into that side, but realistically, that side (with or without Kreuzer and Duigan) couldn't be confident of beating any AFL team. Their backlines and forwardlines are far from full strength, which will shift the Cats' focus to players who have traditionally been able to get under the radar like Walker and Garlett.

 

[darren forssman]

Why change things BigFooty????

bigfooty revamp.....1 star.

why change what aint broke?

 

[Rosso]

Not sure but I'm just waiting for the real Geelong to stand up. Belief and pride pushed us over the line against the Hawks and in the end nearly got us there against the Dockers and Pies. Yet our best win for the year is probably against Brisbane where we led from start to finish. Every other match has been in the balance or close to it for a fair part of the match.

Hopefully the ins will include the likes of Hawkins, Corey, Wojcinkski, Enright, Motlop & Christenson. With no forced outs, that leaves Schroder, McCarthy, Smedts, Gillies on the outer with Guthrie & Stringer being nervous. Finally we reach a point where blokes really have to force their way into the side. With Simpson and later Varcoe also due for inclusions in the second half of the year, there is certainly something to look forward to.

30+ would be a solid result but really you'd love to see a smashing, just to give those that sit above us something to think about during the bye.

 

[SJ]

bigfooty revamp.....1 star.

why change what aint broke?

None of the 'appearance' is set - the skin will be completely modified to feel again like BigFooty.

This was the quickest way to get it up and running ASAP with far better forum software.

Let's not criticise it on day 1 when vBulletin was refined over years and years to how it was on Monday.

 

[darren forssman]

fair enough, changed the big soccer format to default and it is mildly easier to navigate and view.

anyway to ensure we dont lose the listing of sub-forums that were on the left hand side?

 

[Bundy_28]

u flogs have no clue, Cats by plenty

 

[topic97]

dunno about flogs mate but I am somewhat confident of a win but it's sure going to be a tougher match than I first thought early in the week.
Didn't expect so much scrutiny by the media on Carlton...they really trying to spur them on to a win over us

Yeah thats the thing that worries me, but having said that they have a plethora of injuries which are obviously contributing to their form slump, its not from want of trying.
Unless they can bring back Waite, Scotland, Carazzo, Thornton, Creuzer & Murphy(which they cant) I cant see their form altering dramatically - perhaps it might be a closer one than last weeks but thats a hell of a lot of firepower yet to come back.
I mean, that would be like us having Hawkins, Kelly, Enright, West & Bartel out - realistically.

Having Murphy, Scotland & Carazzo all out at the same time is a big issue for them because opposition taggers then solely focus on Judd as there isnt any other players that are anywhere near as damaging.

 

[topic97]

Not sure but I'm just waiting for the real Geelong to stand up. Belief and pride pushed us over the line against the Hawks and in the end nearly got us there against the Dockers and Pies. Yet our best win for the year is probably against Brisbane where we led from start to finish. Every other match has been in the balance or close to it for a fair part of the match.

I beg to differ there mate - that Pies game we should have won by a decent margin but just missed due to crap kicking.
The press that we had against them in the last quarter was magnificent to watch - Collingwood couldnt get the ball out of their back half.
I still think, even though we lost, that was the best quarter of footy I have seen the cats play all season - nothing has matched it yet to the same focus & intensity.

The Hawks game, they assisted us by putting the cue in the rack & we took advantage of it.
The Dockers one shits me still, look at them now, we should have pummeled them....

 

[hbk_aus]

u flogs have no clue, Cats by plenty

You are here for a good time, not a long time arent you champ.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Corey Motlop Enright Hawkins Wojo in

Gillies Smedts Schroder McCarthy Stringer out

emg: Gillies Stringer Smedts

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Kreuzer Henderson and Duigan in, Scotland Bower and Curnow out for Carlton.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Team looks a bit better this week. Would have to be almost the best one we have fielded this year wouldn't it?

 

[RobDog18]

Corey Motlop Enright Hawkins Wojo in

Gillies Smedts Schroder McCarthy Stringer out

emg: Gillies Stringer Smedts

Aww yeah, that's what i'm talking bout!

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

Kreuzer Henderson and Duigan in, Scotland Bower and Curnow out for Carlton.

Strong Team for us.....lets hope we line up as is.

Great to see Wojack back in there.

Carlton have gone in tall and that has troubled us in the past....we should be a little wary on that. Big job for O' and West but confident we have enough first rate defenders to counter the Tall n Small strategy.....no Waite is definitely a bonus as he is a big focal point for them.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Strong Team for us.....lets hope we line up as is.

Great to see Wojack back in there.

Carlton have gone in tall and that has troubled us in the past....we should be a little wary on that. Big job for O' and West but confident we have enough first rate defenders to counter the Tall n Small strategy.....no Waite is definitely a bonus as he is a big focal point for them.

Yeah great team, well done to Wojo on 200 even though he will probably start as the sub.

Hopefully Hawkins plays.

I reckon we can cover their tall forwards easily it's the small forwards that will take the planning. Our rucks will have our work cut out for them hopefully they can at least break even there. If they can it will help our mids, and that's where it will be won and lost.

 

[you pick one]

Gillies emergency puts a question mark over Enright for me.

 

[RobDog18]

Gillies emergency puts a question mark over Enright for me.

I hope not though, i'm getting sick of all these late changes...

 

[David the Cat]

Gillies emergency puts a question mark over Enright for me.

Fair call. Looks a good side though....and if Enright doesn't come up, will they go for Gillies or Smedts given the Carlton forward line?

PS: Has the new format made it to Qld yet?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Gillies emergency puts a question mark over Enright for me.

Gillies should really be an emergency every week, when he is not in the 22, because he provides coverage if any of the back six go down, no matter whom it is. Still, it wouldn't be like us to have the same side lining up on the weekend as the one that was named on the Thursday night.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Mackie will miss.

 

[David the Cat]

Mackie will miss.

Why?