mattys123
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2012 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 14
COLLINGWOOD VS FREMANTLE
MELBOURNE CRICKET GROUND
SATURDAY 29TH JUNE 1.45PM
TV/Radio;
Note: See quote from "Chief" at the bottom of this post about live streams.
Weather;
Preview (Dave86);
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/newsfeatures/news/newsarticle/tabid/5586/newsid/139794/default.aspx
Ticketing;
My Thoughts;
IT'S GETTING DEEP INTO THE AFL SEASON NOW, and Fremantle are yet to deliver on the potential that new coach Ross Lyon spoke about in the pre season. The Dockers sit on 6 wins and 6 losses, but it's been their recent form that will be of most concern to their legion of supporters, otherwise known as the “Purple Haze”. You see, the Dockers were going along alright about five weeks back when they sat on 5 wins and only 2 losses, yet since that time they have only managed to win one game, with that solitary recent win coming against Richmond at the MCG just before Fremantle had the bye. And it doesn't get any easier for the Dockers this weekend as they face up, again at the MCG, against the in form team of the AFL, the Collingwood Magpies.
Collingwood are on a roll, there's no other way to say it, as after yet another gutsy, tough, hard fought win on the weekend over West Coast, they find themselves on a nine game winning streak, something no other team has achieved so far in the 2012 AFL Premiership Season. And while many clubs have whinged that a plethora of injuries is the reason behind their form slump, the Magpies have defied the normal as despite having as bad of a run with injuries as any team in the league, with the win over the Eagles last weekend the biggest sporting club in Australia now finds itself on top of the AFL ladder for the first time this season. And the Pies are not only on top, but they sit a game clear and have a comparable percentage to just about every team around them. It's been a remarkable run of form from the Magpies under new coach Nathan Buckley, and they will front up at the MCG this Saturday afternoon ready and willing to test Fremantle to the limit.
Last weekend Collingwood faced up in what many thought could be a Grand Final Preview against the West Coast Eagles, and the game didn't disappoint, as the most intense, finals like game of the season was played out in front of over 62,000 people at the MCG. When the siren sounded, Collingwood held a 3 point lead and collected the points, but both teams got plenty of applause from the AFL world for the show they put on. It was a game worthy of the build up, and just whet the appetite as to what these two great clubs may produce when they inevitably meet again in September. Just as the final siren was sounding at the MCG, on the opposite side of the country the Dockers were just starting their home game against Essendon, in a crucial matchup for both teams. The game fluctuated throughout the first three quarters, and Freo would have been happy with their well earned five point lead at the final break, yet what would happen next may well have been the breaking of the Fremantle Football Clubs back in 2012. Simply put they were woeful in the last quarter, and had it not been for a last minute missed shot at goal the Dockers would have gone scoreless in the last quarter of a game they had a chance to win. As it was, Essendon ran away with the game in the last quarter, eventually winning by 24 points after kicking four goals and 6 behinds in the last quarter to the Dockers above mentioned solitary point. It was a poor effort by the Dockers, because if they wanted to play finals they need to be winning their home games, especially games they lead at three quarter time. And things may even get worse for the Dockers as a late collision between their best player on the day, Chris Mayne, and team-mate Greg Broughton resulted in both leaving the games looking groggy and injured, and both failed to train yesterday, putting them in serious doubt for Saturday's game, even though they have been named in the initial team.
Over at Collingwood though, it's smiles all around as despite the poor injury run the Magpies simply keep winning. What seems to surprise most is that each week the Magpies seem to unearth a new youngster that has a say in why Pies are ultimately successful. Last Saturday that man was Jamie Elliott, who in just his fourth game, and standing at a height of only 177cm, the young forward managed to take more contested marks then anyone on the ground, which is staggering when you consider the calibre of marking players on the ground during that game (Cox, Natanui, Cloke, Dawes, Jolly, Lynch, Darling just to name a few). But what was more remarkable about young Jamie's performance was that the majority of his possessions came in the last quarter, when the Eagles were outplaying the Pies and it looked like they were going to run away with a win. Yet Elliott provided a much needed link between the Collingwood backline and the forward line, as Collingwood found a way via a Dayne Beams winning goal to yet again win a close game over a fellow premiership contender. Yes, the big names played well for Collingwood, with the likes of Cloke, Beams, Swan, Brown, O'Brien, Jolly and Maxwell all playing a massive part in the win, but it was Elliott who will be remembered out of this game for his last quarter heroics. And it's been that ability of the Collingwood Football Club to find young replacements for their injured stars that has seen it rise to the top of the competition after 13 rounds.
At the selection table the Pies have bought in two youngsters, with Jackson Paine returning after some good VFL form, while young Irishman Caolan Mooney will make his debut, at the expense of another Irishman, Marty Clarke. Tom Young was also omitted. The Magpies will go into Saturday's game expecting to win, and therefore extending their winning streak to ten games before three very tough matchups against old foes Carlton, Geelong and Hawthorn.
Opposition Analysis.
Fremantle need to find form, and find it fast, one win in their last five games doesn't bode well for a side expected to at least make the final eight, if not push for a top four position. And yes, once again the Dockers have had a poor run with injuries, but as explained above, sides like Collingwood and their cross town rivals West Coast have been able to cover injuries and continue to win. There are some positives for the Dockers though, with Hayden Ballantyne returning this week after serving his second suspension of the season, this time for a silly off the ball hit to the stomach of Richmond's Chris Newman. The Dockers have also recalled Dylan Roberton, with Crozier and Crichton making way. Fremantle still have a knack of being competitive on their day, and there are reasons for that.
The Dockers midfield in previous seasons has been seen from an outsider to be a weakness, especially when the big man Aaron Sandilands has found himself injured, but it seems the Dockers reliance on the 211cm giant has dimmed a bit recently. Even last week, without Fyfe, Morabito and Hill, the Dockers midfield won the two key stats of clearances and contested possessions, and their two ruckman, Griffin and Clarke held up their end of the bargain, or at least they seemed to, like the rest of the team, for three quarters. Nick Lower played maybe the best game he has played as a Docker, and with assistance from the likes of Mundy, Pearce, Crowley, Barlow and Deboer the Fremantle midfield wasn't the primary reason why the Dockers have struggled over the past month or so. And if the Dockers can get Fyfe, Hill and Morabito back in that midfield, and with cameos from club great Matthew Pavlich the midfield may still be able to carry this Fremantle side into the final eight.
The Fremantle defense has also been much maligned over the years, and although the have had the added assistance of experienced defender Zac Dawson in 2012, they have still struggled to contain some key forwards, as shown last week when Michael Hurley of the Bombers had his career best haul of 6 goals in the Bombers run away win. Yet, with the defensive minded game plan that new coach Ross Lyon has, and the names that usually occupy the backline for Freo, they have been fairly effective in restricting teams scores in 2012, as they have conceded only 37 more points in total than the ladder leading Collingwood. Many will say that is solely because of Lyon's gameplan and style, but with Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin as their key tall defenders, and Dawson's addition the Dockers back line is fairly effective in most games, especially so far in 2012.
If the Dockers are seen to have a real weakness, it's their forward line, and despite captain Matthew Pavlich (23 goals) and Chris Mayne (22 goals) racking up good tallies, Fremantle rank 13th for scoring in 2012 so far. The consistent loss of small forward Ballantyne hasn't helped things either, as he's only managed 10 goals so far this season, but there really does seem to be a lack of support for the two leading scorers at the football club. The best sides in the competition don't solely rely on their forwards to score, and the Dockers need to find more goals from their midfield if they are to move up the ladder in the final part of the 2012 home and away season. They do have potential, and maybe the answer lies in getting Fyfe, Hill and Morabito back into the side, as it may not only assist the midfield, but it may also add much needed scoring power to a side that is simply struggling to put up big scores, especially against the better sides.
The Dockers will be motivated this week, they have to be after their dismal late performance against the Bombers, but they face a task that no team has been able to complete in the last 11 weeks (10 rounds), and that is beating the mighty Collingwood Football Club. Fremantle will be praying every one of the “probables” for this game come through with flying colours in time for Saturday's game, as without them it's hard to see them being competitive, let alone beating the Magpies on their own home turf.
Key Matchups;
Crowley vs Swan
Crowley may well take Beams, but if the Essendon game was anything to go by Lyon prefers Crowley to take the most inspirational of the opposition midfelders, and that is Dane Swan this week, especially with Pendlebury still out. Crowley held Watson for three quarters last week, but the Bombers captain had a big say in the win late, which is also a time of the game that Swan seems to be able to break away from those annoying taggers and help his team win.
Toovey vs Ballantyne
I'm more hoping for this matchup then anything, as I think Harry O'Brien may be given the role, but Toovey is undoubtedly the Pies best medium sized shut down defender, so I'd be giving him the job on the Dockers most dangerous small/medium forward, and that's Ballantyne. On his day the pesky Ballantyne can win a game of his own boot, and restricting the little man to only a few shots at goal will go a long way to ensuring a Collingwood win.
Pavlich vs Brown
Pavlich has been in good form so far this season for the Dockers, especially considering he still mixes his time between the midfield and forward line, but it seems when games get close Pavlich stays forward, so Brown is his likely opponent, and it should be a great matchup between two top class footballers.
Teams;
Tip.
The only way the Dockers have a chance of winning this game is if they come out early and get a lead over the in form Collingwood team. Fremantle have been poor late in games this season, with no more proof needed than what happened last weekend in Perth. Fremantle will get some confidence out of their recent win on the MCG, and may start the game well because of that.
But with Collingwood in the best form they have been in since about this time last year, you can only really see one result eventuating as far as the win/loss question is concerned. Even though the Pies won't get superstar Scott Pendlebury back, their midfield is still loaded with talent and the potency of the Collingwood side and it's ability to put up a big score should be too much for a defensive minded Fremantle. Dayne Beams and Steele Sidebottom are just two magpies who are in career best form, which is another sign that points to a Collingwood win.
I expect this game to be a tough, hard contested game, with the Dockers under new coach Ross Lyon being transformed away from their previous outside running game to focus more on contested possessions and defense, but in the end the top Magpies outfit will break down the Freo wall and run away with a fairly easy win, to extend their winning streak to 10 games.
Pies by 41 points.
VFL
The Collingwood VFL side returns home to Victoria Park this weekend, as they face up against the side one place below them on the ladder, the Frankston Dolphins. The game is scheduled to start at 1pm on Sunday.
GO PIES.
