Preview AFL Round 17 - Geelong v Brisbane, Skilled Stadium, Saturday July 24 2:10PM

[SJ]

AFL Premiership Round 17
Geelong V Brisbane Lions

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Saturday Jul 24
Skilled Stadium 2:10 PM (Local Time)
Geelong Forecast Geelong Radar


Ladder:

Season Win/Loss

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The Geelong perspective:

Where are they at?:
It would be fair to say that not much credence would be given to anyone tipping an upset this week at the Cattery.
Brisbane started the season in fine form, winning the first 4 games, but have been arguably the worst performing team since then, winning just 1 game since then. They put in an insipid performance against the Hawks in Tassie last week and while you can be sure Michael Voss will espouse the usual cliches about "a greta challenge against the best/opportunity to see where we're at" etc etc, a game against Geelong coming off a loss at Skilled Stadium would be last thing his team needs!
Geelong on the other hand put in a puzzling and disappointing performance against a resurgent Crows outfit who, quite simply, outplayed the Cats.
While starting well and taking a small lead into the half-time break, the 3rd quarter saw Geelong out-classed, out-played, and out-muscled. A late quarter burst saw the Cats almost steal the game, but it would have been an injustice to Adelaide had we come away with the points.
It is difficult to draw any conclusions from the performance due to the extraordinary situation that occurred during the warm-up when the players were witness to one of the club's medical staff suffer a life-threatening heart-attack. He was treated for quite some time on the ground and players were visibly shaken and upset as any football club is a "family" and to say it was distressing to the boys would surely be an understatement?
Bomber Thompson summed it all up best when he said the club would simply pack up, get the flight home and try to forgot Friday night happened.
As a post-script, the staffer in question, Dr. Geoff Allen, has made what is hopefully a full recovery.

Ins and Outs:
For the Cats, Tom Hawkins made an uneventful return to football via the VFL last Saturday and would certainly be in contention for an AFL call up.
Milburn will likely come back in after a well earned rest for "General Soreness". The Match Committee may be cautious about bringing an under-done Hawkins back in immediately as Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett and Corey certainly looked below their best on Friday after all having missed a fair bit of footy of late. Given Geelong's policy of "resting" key players, this may be the last opportunity for giving players who need it a break before finals and some massive home and away games against the likes of Carlton, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs, so don't be surprised to see any of Lonergan, Podsiadly, Blake or Selwood given a rest this week against a badly out of form opponent. Ablett also was the subject of much speculation pre-game on Friday that he would be out, and although far from bad, he certainly didn't achieve the heights we have come to expect from the Little Master.
SJ may return from suspension, but it will depend on how well his broken hand has recovered and his fitness. I expect him to pay and he would be a huge boost to a forward line that has struggled recently.
On the Brisbane side, one would think that Simon Black would earn a hasty recall if fit, as the Brisbane mid-field does not run deep and he is a superstar off the game. Jonathan Brown will be better for the run last week, and Michael Voss has flagged wholesale changes of up to 9 players this week, but it is hard to see who he will include that could actually improve the side, with the exception of Black. Travis Johnstone would be a very nervous player, one would imagine, as he is playing well below his capabilities, but he's not Robinson Crusoe!

Key Matchups:
Brown & Fevola...it looked so exciting and promising early and seemed to be working well, but a combination of injuries and poor supply have blunted this imposing weapon. Scarlett has a great track record on Fevola and I would be very surprised if he didn't get 1st crack at the former Carlton spearhead. Talor and Lonergan will likely share duties on Brown, should both play. All one can hope for against Jonathon Brown is to limit his influence, as when fit, he is probably the best key forward in the game. An imposing physical presence and a booming kick, our defence will have it's work cut out for it trying to negate his influence.
Ling to Black is a lock. I suspect the rest of the midfield match-ups will be left up to Brisbane to sort out, although Daniel Rich and Luke Power can be damaging players if left unattended.
Brennan is a player to be watched carefully, possibly by Enright.
Merrett would look to play on the jPod and would be hoping he can be the first to keep him below 5 goals at the Cattery.

Who will win and why?:
History shows that Geelong have not lost to Brisbane at home since 2003 with an average winning margin of 55 points. Also the Cats handed the Lions their biggest ever home defeat at the Gabba earlier this year to the tune of 81 points.
While one would be foolish to take any AFL side less than seriously, particularly one that has Brown, Fevola, Black and Power in it, it is almost impossible to make a case for Brisbane this week.
They are in horrible form, unlike Adelaide, and they are on a horror road trip, from Tassie to Geelong, also unlike Adelaide.
Geelong while clearly tinkering with the side prior to September, and with a number of key players yet to return to their best form after long lay-offs, have far too much class and form leading into this match at a Stadium where they haven't lost since Rd 21, 2007.
I believe they will view this match as a way to regain some confidence and form before the business end of the season starts.

Cats by 67 points

AFL Round 17 Geelong V Brisbane Lions

 

[Cohzee]

Your forecast link is pointing to Sydney.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/geelong.shtml

 

[SJ]

Interesting. It is automatically generated. I will alert the powers that be. Cheers.

 

[cats2rise]

Would love to see Duncan, Gillies and Menzel get a game.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Judging on the form we showed against Adelaide, this could be another embarassing game for us.

Nah, nah. We'll shit it in at Skilled then proceed to piss ourselves against any quality opposition that knows how to apply pressure.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Assuming he doesn't take the easy route and drop Pods and Lonergan, it will be interesting to see which two premiership players Bomber does drop this week. Assuming the 3 ins are right to go, we will find out a bit about what he considers the best 22 to be this week.

 

[Duskfire]

Pods better play this week; its at Skilled and its against Brisbane. He should kick his allocated five everytime he is down at the cattery.

 

[CatFan79]

Assuming he doesn't take the easy route and drop Pods and Lonergan, it will be interesting to see which two premiership players Bomber does drop this week. Assuming the 3 ins are right to go, we will find out a bit about what he considers the best 22 to be this week.

There's no-one in our team that needs a reality check more than Mackie..

Mackie has tickets on himself and I don't think he's as professional as he could be. His strength has been finding space and ball use, neither of which are working for him.

His obvious weakness is contests. He cannot ride a tackle or lay one. Its so crucial to apply frontal pressure these days and Mackie struggles I think through lack of effort on the field combined with a lack of effort off the field in not gaining strength..

Looks to me that Mackie has found a spot in our 'winning' side that he's comfortable with.. IMO he's too comfortable and is really starting to get shown up..

Thompson won't drop him though. He seems to be a coach that think to himself 'when everything is working as it should, Mackie is a very good player and contributes well'

 

[PatrickBateman]

His obvious weakness is contests. He cannot ride a tackle or lay one. Its so crucial to apply frontal pressure these days and Mackie struggles I think through lack of effort on the field combined with a lack of effort off the field in not gaining strength..

Agreed! This year has not been good at all for Mackie. The guy has absolutely no aggression in him whatsoever. His tackling, chasing(especially), physical presence is terrible. I'm sick of seeing the guy pulling out of contests too.. he's got the 'stick one arm out to make you look interested in a contest' down.

If he can't find space, no use. Even then, his disposal this year has been average. I'll 2nd the call for him to go back and get some aggression(if that's possible) in the VFL. Way too comfortable.

 

[PoidaCat]

Cats by 12-14 goals. Should rape them.

 

[Sttew]

There's no-one in our team that needs a reality check more than Mackie..

Mackie has tickets on himself and I don't think he's as professional as he could be. His strength has been finding space and ball use, neither of which are working for him.

His obvious weakness is contests. He cannot ride a tackle or lay one. Its so crucial to apply frontal pressure these days and Mackie struggles I think through lack of effort on the field combined with a lack of effort off the field in not gaining strength..

Looks to me that Mackie has found a spot in our 'winning' side that he's comfortable with.. IMO he's too comfortable and is really starting to get shown up..

Thompson won't drop him though. He seems to be a coach that think to himself 'when everything is working as it should, Mackie is a very good player and contributes well'

I thought Mackie played reasonably well v Adelaide, particulalrly in 1H

 

[corio bay]

looking forward to this one.

managed to score some "pivots" tickets to the captains room

first time i will be wearing a suit to the footy

 

[gocatsgo]

Personally, i think we need to get our best team together and see what they can produce.

Bring in Stevie J, Hawkins and Milburn (if they are all right to go)
out: Hogan, Lonergan and........this is the hard one, personally, i'd drop Blake and ruck with Hawkins and Ottens, but i don't think they'll do that.

It'll probably end up being a player with `general soreness' again, perhaps Mackie would be a good one to use that excuse on this week

 

[SJ]

I really hope we don't even go more handball happy (if that's even possible) this week and instead start mixing up the game plan a little within a match. The pendulum has swung too far towards the handball in our game plan now for mine. Turned into a bad habit and borderline obsession.

 

[The Big JPOD]

What about shannon byrnes? he has had a shocker of a last few weeks, he goes missing for long periods of times and needs to go back and get some confidence bad!

Hogan also need to go back of find some footy.. seemed lost a few times against Adelaide!!

Would Geelong also look at giving blake a week off? get otto in the ruck and hawkins in to help him out...?

 

[Big Fozza]

i would love to see Duncan get back in.

 

[CatTricks]

Are the Cats going to persist with Scarlo Harry and Lonners down back? and then Otto, Blake, Pods, Moons and Hawk??

SJ's back this week!!!!

 

[re cat]

This will be Fev's first trip to SS. Lol. Scarlo will slaughter him.

 

[Cattery]

There's no-one in our team that needs a reality check more than Mackie..

Mackie has tickets on himself and I don't think he's as professional as he could be. His strength has been finding space and ball use, neither of which are working for him.

His obvious weakness is contests. He cannot ride a tackle or lay one. Its so crucial to apply frontal pressure these days and Mackie struggles I think through lack of effort on the field combined with a lack of effort off the field in not gaining strength..

Looks to me that Mackie has found a spot in our 'winning' side that he's comfortable with.. IMO he's too comfortable and is really starting to get shown up..

Thompson won't drop him though. He seems to be a coach that think to himself 'when everything is working as it should, Mackie is a very good player and contributes well'

Agreed! This year has not been good at all for Mackie. The guy has absolutely no aggression in him whatsoever. His tackling, chasing(especially), physical presence is terrible. I'm sick of seeing the guy pulling out of contests too.. he's got the 'stick one arm out to make you look interested in a contest' down.

If he can't find space, no use. Even then, his disposal this year has been average. I'll 2nd the call for him to go back and get some aggression(if that's possible) in the VFL. Way too comfortable.

So glad you guys have found a suitable replacement for Harley, you both must have been distressed when your favourite whipping boy retired.

 

[AlwaysOnTheBall]

Lonergan was poor against the Crows, and although he has had a good season, he is behind Scarlett and Taylor in defence. He may be 'rested'.

Mackie needs a break.. He's most dangerous when he sneaks forward to bang a goal from 50 out. He is a good player, but needs to get form in the reserves.

Hogan was terrible last week and should not be selected above Duncan. I have big doubts about his ability to have a positive impact when we aren't smashing a hapless opponent..

I'd love to see Otto and Hawkins ruck for us, but don't see Blake getting dropped ?

I think we'll win by around 5 goals this week.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

There's no-one in our team that needs a reality check more than Mackie..

Mackie has tickets on himself and I don't think he's as professional as he could be. His strength has been finding space and ball use, neither of which are working for him.

His obvious weakness is contests. He cannot ride a tackle or lay one. Its so crucial to apply frontal pressure these days and Mackie struggles I think through lack of effort on the field combined with a lack of effort off the field in not gaining strength..

Looks to me that Mackie has found a spot in our 'winning' side that he's comfortable with.. IMO he's too comfortable and is really starting to get shown up..

Thompson won't drop him though. He seems to be a coach that think to himself 'when everything is working as it should, Mackie is a very good player and contributes well'

Agree...Mackie has been very poor in actual defending and contests lately. I am a big fan of the drive he can provide offensively (but even that is down at the moment) but when you are letting your teammates down defensively, it is good to send a message to everybody about what the standards are by putting you in the VFL for a week or two.

But someone else will get the chop. Assuming we make the three changes (Milburn, SJ, Hawkins) then one of the 8 defenders will have to go you would think, so I am expecting one of them, along with Pods, to make way.

Btw, I find it interesting that when asked about Hawkins game on Saturday, Amos said:
"I think if he pulls up really well and he's OK for next week then they'd certainly consider him for AFL selection if his foot's fine, I think he can play.

"That becomes a selection issue whether they play two full-time ruckmen or whether they play a part-timer."

This would indicate that maybe it is between Blake and Hawkins for the one spot.

 

[witsend]

Btw, I find it interesting that when asked about Hawkins game on Saturday, Amos said:
"I think if he pulls up really well and he's OK for next week then they'd certainly consider him for AFL selection if his foot's fine, I think he can play.

"That becomes a selection issue whether they play two full-time ruckmen or whether they play a part-timer."

This would indicate that maybe it is between Blake and Hawkins for the one spot.

No doubt...
Mooney and Pods are the CHF and FF.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No doubt...
Mooney and Pods are the CHF and FF.

Still not confident of the "lock" spot. Expecting "omitted" at some stage.

Call me a pessimist if you must.

Anyway so does anybody think we can play all three?

Or is it really only Blake vs Hawkins?

Blake would be stiff to be left out, but it could happen.

 

[keyboard_warrior]

so pumped for this game, will be heading down to skilled for the first time since 95. just hoping they get a rocket up em this week and perform for me

 

[muzz777]

SJ a chance to come back in?