SJ
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AFL Premiership Season Round 4
Geelong V Richmond
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Sunday22 AprilSimonds Stadium 1:10 PM (Local Time)
Geelong Forecast Geelong Radar
Geelong V Richmond
_______________________________________________________
Sunday22 AprilSimonds Stadium 1:10 PM (Local Time)
Geelong Forecast Geelong Radar
Preview
The vibe
I've witnessed many a "false dawn" down at Punt Road. We all have. This feels different to me. This group, lead by Cotchin and Martin, feels like the new breed. Tigers fans are clearing their throats. Will the purr become a roar?
Cats are trying to work out how to do it all again. Stephenson is trying admirably to fill in for the retired Ottens but Ling doesn't yet look replaceable. It took until round 15 to register the first loss last year. This year there are already two losses on the board. Will the Cats' fortunes mirror their wounded stadium? Or do the Cats have more lives yet?
Last time the Tigers beat the Cats
Round 9 2006 Kardinia Park
During the Cats' well documented annus horribilis the Tigers pulled off a stirring victory at the Cattery. To add insult to injury, Danny Meyer and Adam Pattison both played, as did Brad Ottens, the man they had replaced at Tigerland. Take THAT Geelong! Richmond were within a kick at every change before piling on 5.2 in the final quarter to Geelong's 0.9 to win by 20 points. Mathew Stokes picked up 11 possessions on debut, while Kent Kingsley impressed the Tigers' recruiting team with a dominant six possession, one behind display in his fourth last game for the Cats.
Since then, the Cats have won seven in a row against the Tiges.
Last time they played
Round 18 2011 Docklands
This match wins my award for least memorable Cats game of 2011. Nobody expected the Tigers to win. And they didn't. Geelong were up by 61 at half time, and pulled away in a riveting second half to win by 62. Allen Christensen picked up a Rising Star nomination after equalling the career high 26 disposals he'd gathered against Adelaide four rounds earlier. Chris Newman strained his PCL. Nuff said.
Key Matchups
A noticeable feature of all recent encounters is that no Richmond player ever mans up on a Geelong opponent. That being said, let's examine some theoretical duals.
Lonergan vs Vickery
Lonergan had his hands full against North's tall timber last week but should fare better against the sadly out-of-touch Vickery (should he even be selected). Vickery has taken three matches to gather as many possessions as Cotchin gathers in one half. Shannon Byrnes could do the job of minding him on current form.
Hawkins / Pods vs Rance / Grimes
These four men are arguably the form players for both sides. Hawkins has continued his form from the finals, Rance has announced himself as the defensive general in the absence of Moore, Grimes has just collected the Rising Star round three nomination (congratulations!) and Pods is in career best form (in my opinion). Having said all that, Hawkins is still yet to perform consistently throughout any home-and-away season. He has a real chance to impress at home against the younger, smaller Richmond defenders.
Best four mids
Martin, Cotchin, Foley, Deledio vs Selwood, Bartel, Kelly, Corey
Mmmmmmm! Explosive exciting up-and-comers versus quartet of triple premiership superstars.
The prediction
Richmond played very well at the Cattery in the NAB Cup this year and one of the surprising factors was kicking for goal. It was a perfect example of knowledge being dangerous. The Cats kept telling us all just how difficult kicking for goal will be at the Barwon River end, without the grandstand for cover. And then, as if to prove it, they kicked for goal like pansies.
Richmond didn't know how difficult it would be and they didn't care. They just went BANG! Check out the Riewoldt and Houli goals in the second quarter if you don't believe me. If Richmond can reproduce that sort of attitude they'll put on a good show.
Geelong, in their defence, were missing a host of premiership players, and will be keen to make amends in the first game at home in 2012 after unavailing the premiership flag.
Line betting says Geelong by 36.5 points. I'll say Geelong to win under the line. Cats by 28.