mattys123
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2015 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 6
COLLINGWOOD vs GEELONG
FRIDAY 8TH MAY 7.50PM
M.C.G.
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER;
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.loop.shtml
ROUND 6
COLLINGWOOD vs GEELONG
FRIDAY 8TH MAY 7.50PM
M.C.G.
BROADCAST GUIDE;
http://www.afl.com.au/broadcastguide
WEATHER;
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.loop.shtml
Collingwood and Geelong, when they've clashed over the past decade there has always been a lot on the line, and on Friday night at the MCG the two will clash in a vital round 6 fixture. The Magpies have started 2015 in fine fashion, winning 4 of their first 5 games to somewhat surprisingly sit in second spot on the ladder. The Cats haven't had as good a start to the season but losses to the Hawks, Dockers and Kangaroos, three preliminary finalists from last season, can almost be excused. The Cats bounced back to form with a strong win over the Tigers last week setting up the best Friday night fixture of the season so far.
Of course these two have a lot of recent history that stems back to 2007. Collingwood and Geelong played in 3 preliminary finals and a grand final in a four year period, with the Cats coming out on top in all but one game, the 2010 preliminary final. The biggest clash of course was the 2011 Grand Final, a game where the Magpies led early but the fitter Cats ran over the top to record their 3rd premiership win in 5 seasons. Since that Grand Final the two have played 4 times in total with Collingwood winning 3 and Geelong winning the sole matchup last season.
PREVIOUS FORM
Coming into this game Collingwood couldn't be in much better form, and their fans are close to delirium after two big wins over arch rivals Essendon and Carlton. The first off those wins came as somewhat of a shock to most as the Pies dominated the second half against the Bombers on ANZAC day to record their most impressive win in a long time. The win over Carlton was expected, but the manner in which Collingwood absolutely dominated for all four quarters couldn't go unnoticed. The most impressive part of the Pies start to the season has been their young defensive unit though, which is currently only slightly trailing the experienced Fremantle defense for total points conceded. The Magpies are now a tough team to score against.
Geelong has had a tough draw, there's no other way of saying it. The one concern was the manner of their losses though, with heavy defeats to Fremantle, North Melbourne and Hawthorn. The Cats needed a win last week and they got it, defeating another struggling team in Richmond with relative ease. The final margin of 9 points wasn't a true indication of the game as Geelong led for the entire match and should have won by more. Mitch Duncan and Tom Hawkins led the way for the Cats and for the first time this season their backline held up pretty well. It was a crucial win for Geelong that may well put their season back on track.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
At first it seemed the Pies came through game vs Carlton with a clean bill of health but Jackson Ramsay and Paul Seedsman are unavailable this week after picking up minor injuries in that win. There was good news though with the Magpies VFL side had a stunning win over the reigning premiers Footscray on Saturday, with Jordan De Goey, Jarrod Witts, Brenden Abbott and Jonathon Marsh all pushing for senior selection with top performances. De Goey and Marsh were both brilliant in the win, and both are showing great signs for the future. At selection Collingwood through a shock out with Tony Armstrong promoted off the rookie list to come into the side alongside youngsters Jarrod Witts and Tom Broomhead. Corey Gault was omitted with Paul Seedsman and Jackson Ramsay out because of those injuries. It's a positive time to be at Collingwood with youngsters re-committing long term, the latest being Tom Langdon and Jamie Elliott for 3 more years each. That clearly shows this group believes they can achieve something big, and while this is just the early stages, exciting times are ahead for the biggest club in the land.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
It's hard to judge how good the 2015 version of Geelong is. Yes, they aren't up there with the top echelon of teams, as shown by their three losses this season. But their two wins have come against decent opposition still. This Friday night might be the fairest gauge of the Geelong Cats so far in 2015. In comparison to the Pies they will have a longer injury list although both teams will field several youngsters in their endeavours to rebuild while remaining competitive. The Cats will look to welcome back a few players who have missed games with Stokes, Clark, Mackie and Cockatoo all in contention to return to the seniors. The loss of James Kelly will hurt a Cats side already missing several experienced players though.
The Cats have a problem, and it's their midfield. They ranked bottom of the league for contested possessions and 15th for clearances, something previously unheard of in the recent great era of that football club. Only Joel Selwood is really still pulling his weight in the middle, and it's an area they will have to improve upon if they are to beat the Magpies this Friday. They have some talent, Guthrie, Caddy and Duncan but the absence of some of the stars of years' past is hurting them right now. Against a Pies midfield that is leading the league in contested possessions the Cats will have to figure something out fast or risk being dominated in this area. The ruck is also a concern for the Cats with Simpson and Blicavs struggling to take control in any game so far this year.
Geelong's defense is still pretty strong, despite giving up some big scores in a few of their games this season. Led by Taylor, Lonergan, Rivers and Enright this defensive unit is still capable of shutting even elite forwards down, as seen against the Tigers for the first three quarters last week. The Magpies forward line is still a work in progress, with Elliott and Cloke the only truly dangerous forwards. The Cats will back themselves to be able to contain the Pies forwards, but their may be questions about how Geelong clears it out of defense against a Magpies team which is creating so much pressure. This may well be where the game is won or lost, if the Cats can rebound the ball out of the Pies offensive zone they will gain a huge advantage there.
If there's one area that the Cats can dominate the Magpies they will believe it will be their forward line. Especially if Mitch Clark and Rhys Stanley are fit and ready to return the Geelong forward set up looks very dangerous indeed. The young Pies defense has been in great form so far this season but matched up against the likes of Hawkins, Clark, Stanley, Motlop, Walker, Johnson and Stokes it will face it's biggest test of the season to date. Geelong does have a selection quandary on their hands if Clark and Stanley are both fit but it's a positive quandary for once. This is the area of the ground that for the Cats to win this game they will have to dominated for sure.
The Cats are wounded, they are missing several key names and lost a few more over the weekend past. With the absence of Kelly, Bartel, Vardy, Menzel, Mackie, McIntosh and Smedts it leaves the Cats almost being forced to play inexperienced players, something the Pies know all too well from last season. Geelong still has plenty of talent though, especially when it comes to key position players and that's where they will be hoping to gain an advantage on Friday night. They will have to play better then they have at any point this season though to come out on top.
TEAMS
TIP
The Magpies are clearly in better form then Geelong and most things point to a Collingwood victory on Friday night. Collingwood's team defense at the moment is the envy of a lot of teams and although Geelong's backline looks strong on paper it has struggled at times this season. Geelong still possess the talent to win a game like this but for them everything will have to go right. Final selection was surprising from both teams yet it doesn't change my tip, Pies to move to 5-1.
MAGPIES BY 17 POINTS.
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