mattys123
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2013 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND EIGHT
COLLINGWOOD VS GEELONG
MCG
SATURDAY 18TH MAY 7.40PM
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Collingwood are in trouble, there's no easy way of putting it and this weekend it doesn't get any easier as the Magpies return from a spirit deflating loss to Fremantle and run head on into the greatest team of the last six seasons, Geelong. On Saturday Night at the MCG the Cats will look to do what most though unlikely, and that is place the Magpies in the negative when it comes to their win/loss ratio for 2013. Coming into this season even the most fervent Collingwood hater had to admit that the Magpies would most likely be a premiership contender and would at worst just miss the top four, but at the moment, after yet another perplexing effort and loss the Pies find themselves on the very precipice of the final eight and with a few very dangerous teams nipping at their heels. Geelong on the other hand, well this season couldn't have started much better for them and they now sit outright atop the ladder with an unbeaten 7-0 record as they look to continue their remarkable recent success in years ending with an odd number. Since the epic preliminary final that these two teams played in 2007 they have met 12 times and the record is 5-7 in the favour of the Cats and the Cats obviously got the one win that really mattered in the 2011 season decider.
PREVIOUS FORM
Last Friday night the two remaining unbeaten teams matched up at Etihad as Geelong took on the precocious and controversial Essendon and early on it looked as if the team under an illegal drug use cloud would run away with the points but as they always seem to do the Cats finished the stronger and ran away with a 28 point win. While the Cats hierarchy would have been happy to dispose of yet another unworthy challenger the thing that would have pleased them most is that it wasn't only their big names that helped them get the win, with Stokes, Motlop, Blicavs, Smedts and Lonergan all playing significant roles in the teams win. The ability to continually regenerate their list has been the strength of the Cats in this dominant 6 year period and it's showing up once again this year.
Collingwood on the other hand dug themselves deeper into the hole of woe they have been in for most of this season when on Saturday night in Perth they simply didn't turn up in the first quarter and allowed a fellow injury depleted team in Fremantle to kick the first 6 goals of the match. No matter how much you analysis the 27 point loss that eventually became of that game one thing was clear, that the Magpies lost the game in the opening 25 minutes or so. And that's a frustration for coach Nathan Buckley because you can prepare perfectly all week but if the players aren't willing to give an effort in that opening stanza then even the world's greatest manager/coach will struggle to get a win most weeks. There were some promising signs amongst the rubble though with fifth gamer Josh Thomas finally showing the potential that has saw him retained for so long at the club with a 28 possession performance that was the equal of any other Pies midfielder on the night. Sam Dwyer also played his best game for the club in his first season with a 25 possession game which may just be a sign that the Pies may be about to click into gear and perform somewhere near their potential.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
In a period where most teams have struggled to get wins over Geelong (the last 6 years) the Magpies have been one team that has held their own with the 5 wins in the last 12 contests. That will give Nathan Buckley and his men a little bit of confidence leading into this game and they will need that confidence boost as they face yet more injury a key suspension. Heath Shaw is the recipient of that suspension (1 week) after he hit annoying Fremantle small forward Hayden Ballantyne in the groin, and not only gave away the free kick and a goal but also an opportunity to line up against Geelong this week. On the injury front there's the two Irishman Marty Clarke (corked thigh) and Caolon Mooney (bruised knee) that have not come up this weekend, although Clarke has been listed as ill and Mooney omitted but it's hard to believe either of those labels. The big loss during the week though was Dale Thomas who has succumbed to a recurrence of an ankle injury that bothered him after last season ended and he will miss at least the next two games.
At the selection table the Pies chose to bring in 4 players, with most of the 4 changes forced upon them. Into the side came Ball, Witts, Russell and Marley Williams while Shaw, Mooney, Clarke and Thomas were the outs. The inclusion of Witts shows that the coaching staff might be starting to commit to a two genuine ruck set up which is similar to what a lot of other clubs are using now too. Williams and Russell had to come in with the backline severely weakened by injury and Shaw's suspension, as both were needed against a dangerous Geelong forward line. Luke Ball finally making his return is a bonus for the Pies although expectations on his output have to be a little down after missing so much football. Once the Pies get Ball and Beams back in that midfield though it will be a better unit, although obviously Beams isn't back just yet. Collingwood will come out fired up on Saturday Night, they just have to, but ultimately it will be whether they can sustain an effort and a strong output for four quarters that will determine if they can upset the top of the ladder Cats.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS.
Geelong once again have reinvented themselves and for the umpteenth time have climbed their way back into premiership contention in 2013. Last year was a poor year for the Cats as they didn't even win a final but you just knew they'd bounce back given their amazing record in years ending with odd numbers. How Geelong has done this is a thing to gaze at in wonder as they continuously introduce new players to replace those that have left the club for one reason or another over the past few seasons. The Cats may well once again have the most talented list with the best depth which is staggering to say the least. Their start to 2013 has been almost perfect as they have handled everything that has been thrown at them including a decent sized and talented injury list. The Cats are strong but they aren't perfect, just yet, and there are areas that the Pies will look to exploit on Saturday Night.
The Cats backline has gone through a myriad of changes over the past few seasons with superstars like Matthew Scarlett and Tom Harley retiring and a change in personnel that has seen the Cats defense change it's look, and style over the past few seasons. This year the Cats seem to have taken it to a new level though with the most versatile backline that many have ever seen, and this was shown last week when key defenders Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan both impacted the scoreboard while key forward James Podsiadly found himself down back at times. Harry Taylor is likely to stay down back this week though as he has a great record on the Pies most dangerous forward Travis Cloke, although Tom Lonergan has also taken Cloke in some recent match ups. Most teams have one strength in their backline, be it small/medium defenders or key position defenders but the Cats have strength in both areas and of course their smaller defenders are led by absolute stars Corey Enright and Andrew Mackie, who throughout the Cats remarkable run over the past 6 years have been a leading source of defense and also drive out of the defense. The Pies forward line really isn't working that well lately and this week it runs into the best defense in the AFL, so it will be interesting to see how Collingwood choose to try and break down the Cats strength.The Cats forward line has gone through a heap of changes over the years too yet maybe now it is more dangerous than it has ever been in this great run that the Cats have had. James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins of course lead the way up front as the two main tall targets but it's the smaller, pacy forwards that have had a massive impact in 2013. The likes of Smedts, Christensen, Motlop and Stokes have added a new dimension to the Geelong forward line that has worried just about every team they have played in the opening 7 rounds. In the past it was Chapman, Johnson and Stokes as the dangerous small forwards but this new group may even be more dangerous, especially against the depleted Magpies defence. Collingwood will go into the game without three of it's first choice small or medium defenders with Heath Shaw, Tyson Goldsack and Alan Toovey all unavailable, which basically means the Pies will have to bring in either their second tier defenders or some youth to assist the defense with stopping the Cats scoring ability. It may be where the game is won or lost because if the Cats can get the ball inside their forward 50 more than the Pies can at the other end, it's hard to see Geelong losing.
Geelong's midfield, much like the rest of the side has gone through many changes, non bigger than the loss of Gary Ablett a few years back, but Joel Selwood and the every durable James Bartel have stood up and led a younger, less experienced group towards yet another premiership push. Geelong have attempted to rotate numerous young players through the middle so far this year with Horlin-Smith, Schroder, Thurlow and ex Gold Coast Suns player Josh Caddy all getting a run in the middle at some point this year. One player who yet again has reinvented himself is Steve Johnson, who after several years up forward has become a more permanent part of the midfield rotation so far in 2013. The Geelong midfield is proof that statistics sometimes can prove to be false as the Cats trail the entire league for clearances yet they lead the league for inside forward 50 entries. One area where the Pies might be able to expose Geelong is in the ruck with Trent West struggling a little bit and rookie upgrade Mark Blicavs performing at about the level you would expect someone with his inexperience to perform at. Whether the Pies choose to bring in a second genuine ruckman, like a Witts or Hudson remains to be seen but it is genuinely one area which may be able to be exploited on Saturday Night.
The Cats are a top team once again, there's no denying that and although they lost both games to the Pies last year they are in much better form than Collingwood at the moment, although they do have some injury concerns of their own. Taylor Hunt won't be available for up to 2 months after suffering a broken collarbone last week while Paul Champan is still at least a week away from returning to action also. Travis Varcoe and Daniel Menzel are also two long term injuries at the club. Geelong was able to recall premiership stars Joel Corey and Josh Hunt though who have overcome their respective injury concerns, and they come in for the injured Taylor Hunt and the suspended James kelly. The Cats will be confident of beating the depleted and struggling Collingwood outfit but will know that anything short of their best and they may just open the door for an upset win to a desperate Magpies outfit.
TEAMS.
TIP.
Most will say it is hard to see Collingwood causing an upset here but what the Magpies still possess is an array of talent that can on it's day push even the best sides to the limit. The inclusion of Ball and the addition of Williams and Russell to the backline give the Pies a chance of at least pushing the Cats and they will come out more fired up than they were last weekend in Perth. The selection of a second genuine ruckman in Jarrod Witts also makes things interesting with the Geelong tall defenders now having three Magpie key position forwards to contend with instead of two and without Rivers and the retired Scarlett this is one area the Pies might be able to exploit. Collingwood will have to do everything right to come away with a victory on Saturday night but stranger things have happened and I believe the Cats are due for a loss after getting themselves up to beat the Bombers last week.
PIES BY 3 POINTS.
