Game Day AFL Round 9 - Collingwood vs Geelong Matchday Discussion.

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2016 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 9
COLLINGWOOD vs GEELONG
SATURDAY 21ST MAY 1.45PM
M.C.G.


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WEATHER;

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Collingwood needed a win, and they got one. Last Saturday night the Magpies made the trip north to Brisbane to face another struggling team, the Lions, at the GABBA. The game was over by quarter time as a contest as the Magpies had the only 13 scoring shots in that first term. The Pies eventually ran out 78 point winners and yet we probably didn't learn too much about where they are at. After losses to Carlton and West Coast that left them with a 2-5 record, the win against Brisbane was needed, but still doesn't answer a lot of questions.


This weekend we might get some answers when Collingwood come up against one of the in form teams in the AFL, the Geelong Cats. The Cats couldn't have started this season much better, they've won 7 out of their 8 games and most of those have been by big margins. The day before the Pies won in Brisbane, Geelong themselves were impressing during an interstate trip, as they defeated the Adelaide Crows by 26 points on Friday night football. It was perhaps the most impressive performance yet from this Geelong outfit and leaves them as premiership favourites in some markets.

Of course these two clubs have some recent history, as between 2007 and 2011 they faced off in no less than three preliminary finals, and ultimately the 2011 season decider where the Cats won their third premiership in 5 seasons. Since that grand final, the two teams have met 6 times with Collingwood winning 4 of those, including the round 22 meeting last season by a margin of 48 points.

The Cats will go into this game as heavy favourites though and on form that's completely justified.



COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

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The win over the Lions took some pressure off Collingwood but they still only have the 3 wins after 8 games. Coming into the season the clear message coming out of the club was that finals was the realistic aim. Now that seems unlikely unless the Magpies can get on a roll and gain ground on the teams fighting for a spot in the finals. That starts this Saturday at the M.C.G. and it doesn't get much harder than this. The Cats are on fire and their key position players will worry the Pies to no end. The hope is though that Collingwood can win the midfield battle and stay in the game long enough to have a shot at winning it late on. To do that a lot will have to go right. The ruckman (most likely Grundy and Cox) will have to continue on from their good output against the Lions. The Pies midfield is undoubtedly their strength at the moment and the addition of Adam Treloar is just starting to pay dividends. Many said the Pies over paid for Treloar in the trade period yet after 8 game the ex Giant has only 3 players ahead of him in the entire AFL with more possessions. That's an impressive return for a player coming off surgery in the pre season and learning how to play with an entirely new group of team mates. Add in Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, De Goey, Varcoe, Greenwood and Crisp and this Pies midfield is finally running on all cylinders.

To beat Geelong though it's going to take more than just winning the clearances. The Pies will have to use the ball well when going forward to give their attackers a chance to score freely. Geelong's backline is rated as the best defense in the AFL this season and with a mix of experience and youth if the Pies can't use the ball properly going inside forward 50, they can't win. The positive is that Mason Cox, Darcy Moore, Alex Fasolo and Jesse White are starting to figure out how to play together. The absence of Cloke and Elliott is hurting but last week the Pies were ably to score freely, all be it against lesser opposition. The Pies backline may be the biggest worry coming into this one though. With Nathan Brown still out of the side, and now struggling with a hamstring injury, it's left to Reid, Frost and Howe to restrict a very dangerous Geelong forward line.

At selection it looked like the Pies might go one week without losing anyone to injury, yet Ben Sinclair is this week's victim, struck down with concussion symptoms yet again. Ben Reid returns though and will help the Magpies struggling defense to no end. Can the Pies win this game? Maybe, but it's more about showing that they are improving and are back to being competitive against one of the better teams in the AFL.



GEELONG PREVIEW

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Geelong are a remarkable football club. They've finished in the top 4 (at the end of the home and away season) in 7 of the last 9 seasons, and have played off in no less than 4 grand finals in that time, with 3 premierships. The most remarkable thing though is they never seem to go away. After having an “off” season last year, where they finished outside the top 8 for the first time in 9 seasons, they have rejuvenated their list with a mixture of smart drafting and being aggressive through trades and free agency. Of course the biggest addition in the off season was Patrick Dangerfield but they've also picked up the likes of Stanley, Smith, Clark, Selwood (Scott), Henderson and Caddy in recent years. They now sit second on the AFL ladder and in some markets are premiership favourites after 8 rounds.

The Geelong forward line is one of the best going around at the moment, if only they could kick straighter. It's amazing to think that the second best attack in the AFL is ranked in the bottom 6 for goal kicking accuracy, just imagine if they could kick straight. The Cats forward line is built around 3 main goal scorers at the moment, and all are different types of players. Tom Hawkins is the obvious key target, and while his form over the past few weeks hasn't been great, he's still capable of kicking a bag on his day. The other 2 are Shane Kersten and Steven Motlop who have both started the season really well and are challenging Hawkins for the club's goal kicking leader. The Pies backline has been decimated by injuries really, as their preferred starting six were all missing last weekend. The return of Reid will help but it's still an area of the ground that can be exploited for sure.

Geelong had a serious problem in season 2015 and that was it's midfield. They ranked dead last for clearances last season and 13th for all contested possessions. That was a huge drop off for a team who from 2007-2013 were consistently in the top 4 in both areas. Captain Joel Selwood was left to fend for himself in the middle, with little support around the contested ball situations. Of course all that has changed with the addition of Patrick Dangerfield. Straight away the Cats are ranked in the top 3 for both clearances and contested possessions and it's made a huge difference to the whole team. Of course there's others that are helping the two superstars, with Bartel, Blicavs, Guthrie, Duncan and Caddy all averaging multiple clearances a game. That's the effect a strong double pairing can have in the middle. The ruck work is also better though, with Blicavs, Stanley and Smith providing one of the more unique yet effective ruck setups in the AFL. They come up against a Pies midfield that is struggling in both key areas, although the return of Taylor Adams and Travis Varcoe last week helped a lot.

The Cats defense has conceded the least total points so far this season. That's no shock at all when you see their setup. With Lonergan, Henderson and Taylor as the key position defenders, and with help from Enright, Mackie and Bartel, you can already see that it's a formidable lineup. There is some doubt about Lonergan this week due to concussion, but even without him they should be able to restrict the Magpies inexperienced and injury hit forward line. If the Pies were looking at a weakness down back it would be the Cats inability to rebound the ball out of their defensive zone. They only rank 16th for rebounds from the back 50, and with the likes of Blair, Varcoe and Fasolo putting pressure on, maybe the Pies can keep the ball inside their forward zone if they can get it in their enough. That's a big if though, and this Geelong defense is that good that it's hard to see Collingwood putting up a big score against them.

Geelong couldn't be go much better really, apart from that goal kicking accuracy of course. Sitting second with only one loss after 8 rounds is a dream start and gives them a strong base to build off. Their injury list is small when compared to most others, especially Collingwood's, and this has allowed a stable side for coach Chris Scott to work with early in the season. Geelong also only made the one change at selection with George Horlin-Smith forcing his way in after strong VFL form. Tom Ruggles makes way. The Cats will go in with a really strong and fit lineup and will expect to win this game.

TEAMS

MAGPIES

B: J.Frost, B.Reid, B.Maynard

HB: A.Oxley, A.Toovey, J.Howe

C: T.Varcoe, A.Treloar, S.Sidebottom

HF: J.De Goey, D.Moore, J.White

F: A.Fasolo, M.Cox, J.Blair

R: B.Grundy, S.Pendlebury, T.Adams

I/C: L.Greenwood, J.Crisp, B.Crocker, J.Smith

EMG: J.Witts, J.Marsh, M.Goodyear

IN: B.Reid

OUT: B.Sinclair (Concussion)

CATS

B: L.Henderson, T.Lonergan, C.Enright

HB: M.Blicavs, H.Taylor, A.Mackie

C: S.Motlop, J.Selwood, C.Guthrie

HF: S.Kersten, Z.Smith, C.Gregson

F: J.Bartel, T.Hawkins, D.Menzel

R: R.Stanley, M.Duncan, P.Dangerfield

I/C: J.Bews, J.Caddy, G.Horlin-Smith, D.Lang

EMG: B.Smedts, N.Vardy, T.Ruggles

IN: G.Horlin-Smith

OUT: T.Ruggles (Omitted)





TIP

This game sees the 2nd and 12th placed sides go head to head so obviously the 2nd place side, the Cats, will go in as favourites and be expected to win. The Cats defense has been magnificent so far this season and their midfield has improved it's ability to win the contested ball. The recent history between the two suggests Collingwood matches up pretty well against Geelong and if the Pies bring their intensity and effort of last week they could steal this game.

For that to happen Ben Reid has to play like the old Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe needs to be fit and rediscover his best form and the Pies midfield needs to at least break even at the clearances. If all those things happen and Geelong kick inaccurately at goal once again, Collingwood can cause a massive upset on Saturday.

MAGPIES BY 5 POINTS.
 
Not feeling confident after the job Geelong did on Adelaide last week. To be competitive and show some improvement in skills in a match against a better side will be what I will be looking for.
 

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Brave Tipping Us as So Far the Cats have been way better side then we have been/

We just need to start like we did last time we played last year;)

One good thing that is Cats are as Bad Shot on Goal as Us.

I think we will get Beaten and Sadly Well Beaten by a very Good Cats Side. Cats by 40pts

I still give a Smokey Chance though
 
I called it last week the Cats will be Premiers in 2016......all I want is for us to play our best game for the year.......whatever the result.

Go Pies!
 
I think we have a chance as long as we can get on top around the clearances, especially in the middle of the ground - Geelong rely a lot on Dangerfield and Guthrie (not sure if that's how you spell it) was fantastic last week but they do fall away if you can shut down the top players. We were good last week and even though the opposition wasn't great, the team would have got confidence and being away from Melbourne as a group often seems to release the pressure valve from the big Vic teams. Also, not many changes this week, which helps players gel together, and we get Reid back as an extra bonus. We have to play tough, contested footy and make Geelong earn every possession and if we do a 10 point win is ours (98 to 88 for those who like to know exactly what's going to happen). PS - unfortunately I have to work tomorrow so I won't see our great win and, if it all happens to go to shit, I won't know about it until it's over.
 
Cats by 5 goals +.
 
I think we have a chance as long as we can get on top around the clearances, especially in the middle of the ground - Geelong rely a lot on Dangerfield and Guthrie (not sure if that's how you spell it) was fantastic last week but they do fall away if you can shut down the top players. We were good last week and even though the opposition wasn't great, the team would have got confidence and being away from Melbourne as a group often seems to release the pressure valve from the big Vic teams. Also, not many changes this week, which helps players gel together, and we get Reid back as an extra bonus. We have to play tough, contested footy and make Geelong earn every possession and if we do a 10 point win is ours (98 to 88 for those who like to know exactly what's going to happen). PS - unfortunately I have to work tomorrow so I won't see our great win and, if it all happens to go to shit, I won't know about it until it's over.

Huge job for our on-ball brigade this week.
 

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Symmetry for you lads. Round 9 2013, same opposition, same form guide, and we rolled them. Krakouer and Sammy Dwyer show, despite a third quarter Geelong goal fest. I believe we might be in the same boat this time come round 9 2016, with nobody giving us a hope in John Elliot hell, and then we know how that turned/ will turn out :cool:

P.S. for those familiar with numerology, lots of threes in there. For those unfamiliar, zero does not count, unless you count the points Geelong goes home with....;)
 
The game is on at 10.30am at the Aussie Sports Bar in Luang Prabang, Laos. First game I will have seen in 3 weeks so I hope the boys acquit themselves admirably or at least tolerably well. Glad Reid is back in because our defence needs the touch of class he provides. Williams is another who is becoming a long term out - when is he due back? Geelong are in 2nd spot so the game will provide a good indication of where we are at as a team. It is going to be difficult watching the game without alcohol support. I could have a beer I suppose but I drink enough of it later in the day and evening without adding to my tally in the morning. In the close heat that congregated under the bar's inadequately shaded laser-lite roof, I watched the Swans beat the Hawks this afternoon, and we downed a couple of bottles of Beer Lao each followed by a few more at dinner. With any luck the boys won't get me too anxious or angry and I will be able to watch in relative comfort, substituting a mango shake for the beer.
 
All i want to see is the boys having a real crack and giving geelong hell playing 4 qtrs of relentless pressure.

Here's the stats from the 2008 game nobody saw coming. Look at that tackle count...
 

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A fully fit back six still don't look like world beaters to me, but a fit Reid helps this depleted version a great deal. Jesse is named forward, but does he play back again, along with Howe? Do they mix it up within the game?

I think we are a genuine chance if we can get our runners off the chain and, most importantly, kicking straight. If guys like Crisp, Varcoe, Treloar, Blair, Smith and Sidebottom can apply some scoreboard pressure it will make the task that much easier.

In the middle Greenwood has been a little underwhelming. I'd like to see Adams left in there, and hopefully he and JDG can feed it out to Pendles and Treloar.

Back in the pre season against Geelong, Mason Cox showed what a handful he could be, even leaving Harry Taylor looking a little nonplussed at times. Another good game from him opens up opportunities for those around him. Fas is playing well and young Crocker showed a bit in his debut. Confidence has been a theme on our board this week and Crocker has it. Looking forward to seeing him see what he can do in his second game.

It all comes down to creating enough scoring opportunities and kicking much straighter than last week. Oh, and restricting Marty Monster to 3 or less goals. 4 max.

Tipping us by 10 points in a boil over.
 
The game is on at 10.30am at the Aussie Sports Bar in Luang Prabang, Laos. First game I will have seen in 3 weeks so I hope the boys acquit themselves admirably or at least tolerably well. Glad Reid is back in because our defence needs the touch of class he provides. Williams is another who is becoming a long term out - when is he due back? Geelong are in 2nd spot so the game will provide a good indication of where we are at as a team. It is going to be difficult watching the game without alcohol support. I could have a beer I suppose but I drink enough of it later in the day and evening without adding to my tally in the morning. In the close heat that congregated under the bar's inadequately shaded laser-lite roof, I watched the Swans beat the Hawks this afternoon, and we downed a couple of bottles of Beer Lao each followed by a few more at dinner. With any luck the boys won't get me too anxious or angry and I will be able to watch in relative comfort, substituting a mango shake for the beer.

Enjoy the match mate. Start with a mango shake and end with a celebratory beer. The Pies will trounce the Cats today.
 
As long as Collingwood knows there danger on the field and overcome danger on the field we will be safe.

( the same joke writer was used who writes for the panel, now taken out the back and now disappeared)
 
It all comes down to creating enough scoring opportunities and kicking much straighter than last week. Oh, and restricting Marty Monster to 3 or less goals. 4 max.

Tipping us by 10 points in a boil over.
If we can kick straight and get the confidence up early would be great, if we miss early I dare say it will be tough. Hopefully we got all the kicking yips out last week.

Early confidence and heavy pressure will be the key along with some luck and we may just get over the line. We need it!
 
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