Game Day Around the Grounds - Rd 11 - 15

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Their run home looks pretty friendly and their next two games are Bombers and Brisbane.

Brisbane (A) - Win
Essendon (H) - Win
North (H) - 60-40
Carlton (A) - This is the moment
Melbourne (H) - Win
Collingwood (A) - 70-30
Fremantle - Win
GWS (A) - Loss
Hawthorn (H) - 50-50
Adelaide (A) - 20-80

I see 13 wins with crucial games against us, North, Hawthorn and Adelaide. They need to lose all those for us to overtake them.

We would need 8 of our last 11

St Kilda - Win
GWS (A) - Loss
Collingwood - Win
Adelaide (H) - 35-65
West Coast (H) - 50-50
Sydney (A) - Loss
Hawthorn - Loss
St Kilda - Win
Brisbane (A) - Win
Melbourne - 60-40
Essendon - Win

I see 12 wins there, plus the Eagles game for the point of the exercise. To pass the Eagles we need to beat one of Adelaide or Hawthorn.

For the record, don't think we will do it, but I just wanted to point out that if we continued to play as we did against Geelong and West Coast play as they have been, there is a path.

Reality is we will probably go 11-11.

 

[passmark]

They are 40 percentage points ahead and typically have big wins at home.

Effectively two games ahead at the moment and one if we get across the line tomorrow.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Brisbane (A) - Win
Essendon (H) - Win
North (H) - 60-40
Carlton (A) - This is the moment
Melbourne (H) - Win
Collingwood (A) - 70-30
Fremantle - Win
GWS (A) - Loss
Hawthorn (H) - 50-50
Adelaide (A) - 20-80

I see 13 wins with crucial games against us, North, Hawthorn and Adelaide. They need to lose all those for us to overtake them.

We would need 8 of our last 11

St Kilda - Win
GWS (A) - Loss
Collingwood - Win
Adelaide (H) - 35-65
West Coast (H) - 50-50
Sydney (A) - Loss
Hawthorn - Loss
St Kilda - Win
Brisbane (A) - Win
Melbourne - 60-40
Essendon - Win

I see 12 wins there, plus the Eagles game for the point of the exercise. To pass the Eagles we need to beat one of Adelaide or Hawthorn.

For the record, don't think we will do it, but I just wanted to point out that if we continued to play as we did against Geelong and West Coast play as they have been, there is a path.

Reality is we will probably go 11-11.

There's no way we are 50/50 with the Eagles. No where near 35% chance against the crows tbh.

 

[Jabba73]

"slightly"

Sorry, bit of an exaggeration there, should have said marginally.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

There's no way we are 50/50 with the Eagles. No where near 35% chance against the crows tbh.

Eagles are not the Eagles away from home. 1-4 with 3 of those losses by over 40 points and the one win against Port by 8 points. We are in the conversation on our home turf, injuries notwithstanding.

Crows, again home turf. Maybe we have Silvagni and Jaksch adding to our scoring power. Maybe they are a couple down. 1 in 3 chance in a two horse contest doesn't seem so far fetched. Remember our terrible side last year went down by single figures late in our game against them last year.

 

[GHENGIS]

North won't win the flag.

Problem is....not sure who will.

Nope- will make up numbers in the finals this year and probably next as well, before beginning their decent back to the lower half of the ladder

 

[GHENGIS]

There's no way we are 50/50 with the Eagles. No where near 35% chance against the crows tbh.

Not impressed with the eagles at all this year - more than beatable in Melbourne. If our good form holds 50/50 is about right

 

[Jabba73]

Norf will fall off a cliff once their core group of senior players retire during the next couple of seasons.

If they don't have a serious tilt at the flag this year, it may be too late. The two games either side of the upcoming bye round will be a fair indication of where they are going to finish.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Eagles are not the Eagles away from home. 1-4 with 3 of those losses by over 40 points and the one win against Port by 8 points. We are in the conversation on our home turf, injuries notwithstanding.

Crows, again home turf. Maybe we have Silvagni and Jaksch adding to our scoring power. Maybe they are a couple down. 1 in 3 chance in a two horse contest doesn't seem so far fetched. Remember our terrible side last year went down by single figures late in our game against them last year.

I wish I could share your confidence . Wow, we really do have a good draw this year, we play the shit teams twice and the good interstate teams at home.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I wish I could share your confidence . Wow, we really do have a good draw this year, we play the shit teams twice and the good interstate teams at home.

Benefits of a bottom 4 finish.

Geelong, North, Hawthorn, Dogs, Eagles, Giants, Crows, Port, Dees once

Saints, Pies, Bombers, Lions, Sydney are the teams we got twice. Fortunately 4 of those teams have got worse since last year.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Norf will fall off a cliff once their core group of senior players retire during the next couple of seasons.

If they don't have a serious tilt at the flag this year, it may be too late. The two games either side of the upcoming bye round will be a fair indication of where they are going to finish.

Can see them finishing 7th or 8th along with the Eagles.

 

[Big Sim is Back]

Good to hear Norf are so brave after losing their captain just before half time. Add the corky that has slowed down Cunnington and they have done so well against the odds to stay with the rampant Cats.

******* short memories on the commentary team tonight, we beat them under worse circumstances a couple of weeks ago you muppets.

Too right. 30 scoring shots to 14. Had **** all to do with their injuries, they were comprehensively outplayed.

Norf are so full of their own bathwater at the moment it was great to see a plug pulled tonight.Could well drop their next 4 too, please Lord.

Thompson, Harvey, Petrie, Thomas, Dal Santo: have their every been that many punchable faces in one team? I can't think of another.

Just want them to drop to 6th then lose the elimination final by a goal kicked after the siren from a free kick for a staged around the neck.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Good to hear Norf are so brave after losing their captain just before half time. Add the corky that has slowed down Cunnington and they have done so well against the odds to stay with the rampant Cats.

******* short memories on the commentary team tonight, we beat them under worse circumstances a couple of weeks ago you muppets.

Exactly what I thought every time they said it. Sure they sung our praises for our performance accordingly but we got up under the same circumstances and we were not a 10-1 team.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Benefits of a bottom 4 finish.

Geelong, North, Hawthorn, Dogs, Eagles, Giants, Crows, Port, Dees once

Saints, Pies, Bombers, Lions, Sydney are the teams we got twice. Fortunately 4 of those teams have got worse since last year.

Yeah, I understand the difference between the draw of of bottom team etc. but I just don't like us getting ahead of ourselves! We are still shit, I just worry about our supporters getting ahead of themselves.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Yeah, I understand the difference between the draw of of bottom team etc. but I just don't like us getting ahead of ourselves! We are still shit, I just worry about our supporters getting ahead of themselves.

I don't think we will get near it. We need to win all the ones against teams lower than us, and beat 2 teams above us, while hoping the Eagles lose to all above them and us.

I don't agree that we are shit, unless you have a very liberal interpretation of the word. Developing is as low as I will go. Their efforts this year can't be dismissed.

Having said that, a couple of key injuries and we might lose 9 of our last 11.

 

[El Topo]

Yep, would much rather win 3-4 less games but get to play against the top teams twice. Teams dont improve by playing minnows.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Yep, would much rather win 3-4 less games but get to play against the top teams twice. Teams dont improve by playing minnows.

Dogs surged in 2015 by virtue of having a bottom 6 draw. The confidence they gained have made them contenders this year. Belief is an amazing thing, not to mention the valuable experience into some of their talented young players and just knowing how to win.

 

[El Topo]

Dogs surged in 2015 by virtue of having a bottom 6 draw. The confidence they gained have made them contenders this year. Belief is an amazing thing, not to mention the valuable experience into some of their talented young players and just knowing how to win.

Agree that belief is a wonderful thing, but we're winning games with an older side than the dogs were last year. IMO a tougher draw would mean around 3 less wins, but a chance to knock off Geelong twice rather than, say, *FC. Beat the best to be the best, ect ect.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Has kicked a total of 5 goals in his last 6 games. Is really struggling at the moment.

We told them.

Waite has finally realised his potential. Far better player than he ever was at Carlton. Rinse and repeat for a lot of other players that have left.

But we protest, he was good at Carlton too, just wildly inconsistent. He got injured a lot at Carlton and isn't getting injured at North but that's not a reflection of Waite, but either their medical staff or just plain dumb luck.

But let's look at how he is scoring so much more at North, and how his contested marking has gone up a level.

Goals per game

2012 - 2.45
2013 - 1.93
2014 - 1.81
2015 - 1.82
2016 - 2.25

Scoring shots per game

2012 - 3.72
2013 - 3.14
2014 - 2.87
2015 - 2.87
2016 - 3.41

Contested marks per game

2012 - 2.27
2013 - 2.21
2014 - 2.18
2015 - 1.74
2016 - 2.00

Marks Inside 50

2012 - 2.27
2013 - 2.93
2014 - 2.56
2015 - 2.39
2016 - 2.75


In those 3 Carlton years we did not legitimately make the finals during the home and away season. Our win/loss record with Waite in the side was 18-1-22 in his last 3 years. At North the record is 25-10.

He is in a far better side and about the only thing he has upped is his tackle rate .... by about 1 per game in 2016, not 2015 however.

I mean, spare me the career best form rubbish. He's just not playing as the top banana many weeks so has a little more freedom but still isn't dominating statistically as they would have you believe.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Agree that belief is a wonderful thing, but we're winning games with an older side than the dogs were last year. IMO a tougher draw would mean around 3 less wins, but a chance to knock off Geelong twice rather than, say, *FC. Beat the best to be the best, ect ect.

Damn. Well we will just have to win more games and beat Geelong in the finals. I know it's not ideal but whatcha gonna do?

 

[Jabba73]

Too right. 30 scoring shots to 14. Had **** all to do with their injuries, they were comprehensively outplayed.

Norf are so full of their own bathwater at the moment it was great to see a plug pulled tonight.Could well drop their next 4 too, please Lord.

Thompson, Harvey, Petrie, Thomas, Dal Santo: have their every been that many punchable faces in one team? I can't think of another.

Just want them to drop to 6th then lose the elimination final by a goal kicked after the siren from a free kick for a staged around the neck.

The Saints circa 2005 would have to go close.

I'll see your Dal Santo and raise you a Milne, Baker, Goddard, Gerhig, McGough, Montagna, Gram, Fiora, Jones etc.

 

[Aphrodite]

Norf

 

[JustaBattler]

lol norfs

 

[HBF]

West Coast are the vulnerable ones now. They are the ones we need to beat when we meet. Real 8 point game.

And we play them at the MCG where they struggle.
Hard to believe they went scoreless in the last quarter.

 

[Aphrodite]

Would love to see GC get a win over those ferals today!