Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

The point is to deter, you'll notice Russia hasn't been brave enough to attack.

That's the whole point of the invasion, Ukraine was getting awfully close to joining and Russia couldn't have that.

It's a very successful deterrence, hence Russia's moves. This is all predicted by Putin's speeches circa 2008, and wiki leaks article from a CIA(I think?, gotta check my sources) head. This war was avoidable

Russia doesn't agree.

I don't care, Urals is the end, ~70% of their population is in Europe

Given your whole narrative is about less people dying, if the US goes on that's a lot of dead Russians.

Exactly. The US can't go, nor NATO. Individual(particularly non nuclear) countries have been free to do so yet they haven't

don't get me wrong, the Uas is not perfect. The US should have provided and allow others to provide better tech quicker and should remove all restrictions on their use to let Ukraine tegain its territory.

The restriction thing is hot air, "stop holding me back bro". Ukraine has been striking Russian territory for as long as they could(see Belgorod) and deemed it worthwhile to strike deep rather than urgent need on the front. A couple of missile types aren't that big of a deal tbh

 

[Cap]

That's the whole point of the invasion, Ukraine was getting awfully close to joining and Russia couldn't have that.

It's a very successful deterrence, hence Russia's moves. This is all predicted by Putin's speeches circa 2008, and wiki leaks article from a CIA(I think?, gotta check my sources) head. This war was avoidable

Yes, it was completely avoidable if 1. They'd let Ukraine in sooner and 2. Putin wasn't a genocidal maniac who invaded proving to the world why all those other countries joined.

I don't care, Urals is the end, ~70% of their population is in Europe

Of course you don't care, its not useful.

The leadership of Russia seem themselves as Russia not European.


Thats not to suggest the millions of Russians who fled don't see themselves as European.

Exactly. The US can't go, nor NATO. Individual(particularly non nuclear) countries have been free to do so yet they haven't

Why they don't want to send their own people?

You mean the countires that Russia will likely go after next and the ones doing huge amounts of donations (per capita).

The restriction thing is hot air, "stop holding me back bro". Ukraine has been striking Russian territory for as long as they could(see Belgorod) and deemed it worthwhile to strike deep rather than urgent need on the front. A couple of missile types aren't that big of a deal tbh

They had to do it with their own stock and have had to build up that capacity.

If you want this war to end quicker, you would be in full support letting Western Missles his Russian airbases in Russia

 

[Mobbs]

Mobbs can dismantle this in a few paragraphs.

Russia are the fascists, not Ukraine.

Imagine how long it would take to load and share such a video with your youtube on state-enforced slowdown!

 

[QuietB]

What was the Cuban Missile Crisis about?

If I remember correctly the USA completely lost their minds at Russia setting up shop so close to mainland USA - like the brink of nuclear war lost their minds.

Any parallels here

 

[Andre]

What was the Cuban Missile Crisis about?

If I remember correctly the USA completely lost their minds at Russia setting up shop so close to mainland USA - like the brink of nuclear war lost their minds.

Any parallels here

Not unless the US said they plan to base nuclear missiles in Ukraine when no one here was listening.

 

[jatz14]

Not unless the US said they plan to base nuclear missiles in Ukraine when no one here was listening.

Not nukes silly, wasn't it bio labs breeding genetically programmed assassination bugs or something.



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[jatz14]

That's the whole point of the invasion, Ukraine was getting awfully close to joining and Russia couldn't have that.

It's a very successful deterrence, hence Russia's moves. This is all predicted by Putin's speeches circa 2008, and wiki leaks article from a CIA(I think?, gotta check my sources) head. This war was avoidable

I don't care, Urals is the end, ~70% of their population is in Europe

Exactly. The US can't go, nor NATO. Individual(particularly non nuclear) countries have been free to do so yet they haven't

The restriction thing is hot air, "stop holding me back bro". Ukraine has been striking Russian territory for as long as they could(see Belgorod) and deemed it worthwhile to strike deep rather than urgent need on the front. A couple of missile types aren't that big of a deal tbh

Russia could have that.

Because Finland did join, and Russia did have that, despite saying for years, that they couldn't have that.

The difference is not what they can and can't have, it's what they thought they could and couldn't get away with.

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[ibd77]

I wonder if the Ukrainians are doing a thunder run to Moscow? Looks like the door is wide open and the Russians are not prepared.

 

[barreness]

Yes, it was completely avoidable if 1. They'd let Ukraine in sooner and 2. Putin wasn't a genocidal maniac who invaded proving to the world why all those other countries joined.

Or just not expanding NATO, both would work

Of course you don't care, its not useful.

Geography, wild I know

The leadership of Russia seem themselves as Russia not European.

Cold war stuff, and the other side refused to acknowledge it's end

Thats not to suggest the millions of Russians who fled don't see themselves as European.

Why they don't want to send their own people?

You mean the countires that Russia will likely go after next and the ones doing huge amounts of donations (per capita).

.......Yes, there is no hold on the Baltics, Poland, or former Yugoslavia sending troops. But they don't want to get involved

They had to do it with their own stock and have had to build up that capacity.

If you want this war to end quicker, you would be in full support letting Western Missles his Russian airbases in Russia

They could already, NATO control of weaponry is minimal. Ukraine has hit Russian territory whenever they could, it's just not worthwhile for the most part, front-line is more important

 

[barreness]

Russia could have that.

Because Finland did join, and Russia did have that, despite saying for years, that they couldn't have that.

The difference is not what they can and can't have, it's what they thought they could and couldn't get away with.

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Sure. Invasion of Russia clearly comes through Poland/Belarus/Ukraine, more important

 

[Cap]

Or just not expanding NATO, both would work

There is only 1 reason to get upset about an expansion of a defensive pact

You come across as the type of person that will rob their neighbours because you are upset they all joined neighbourhood watch.

Geography, wild I know

Cold war stuff, and the other side refused to acknowledge it's end

For someone who preaches for Russia you certainly don't listen to what they actually say about anything do you.

.......Yes, there is no hold on the Baltics, Poland, or former Yugoslavia sending troops. But they don't want to get involved

Because as I've mentioned before, the majority are small countries with small armies...it makes no sense for them to potentially bring forward an invasion and then not have the soliders required to defend until NATO arrives.
Providing equiment at the levels they have is impressive.

They could already, NATO control of weaponry is minimal. Ukraine has hit Russian territory whenever they could, it's just not worthwhile for the most part, front-line is more important

NATO provided weaponry is 0.

Individual EU countries is significant. Slowly they are allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia

Of course it would have made a different, granted it would have been mainly stopping the cruise missiles hitting apartments, hospitals and childcare centres, but you've already acknowledged you don't believe that happens, so I can accept in your view it wouldn't make a difference.

But glide bombs also caused havoc recently, it would have helped reduce those.

The delay however forced Ukraine to have to develop their own capacity, So Russia got two years of bombing hospitals and apartment complexes.

Anyway hopefully this whole argument is moot and this Kursk incursion can help topple Putin.

 

[Cap]

Apparently the other player joined a group of chess players to learn defensive moves.

So its all the USAs fault.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Keep ignoring reality mate

Explain to me why you support Russias illeagle invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Aussie in exile]

That's the whole point of the invasion, Ukraine was getting awfully close to joining and Russia couldn't have that.

It's a very successful deterrence, hence Russia's moves. This is all predicted by Putin's speeches circa 2008, and wiki leaks article from a CIA(I think?, gotta check my sources) head. This war was avoidable

I don't care, Urals is the end, ~70% of their population is in Europe

Exactly. The US can't go, nor NATO. Individual(particularly non nuclear) countries have been free to do so yet they haven't

The restriction thing is hot air, "stop holding me back bro". Ukraine has been striking Russian territory for as long as they could(see Belgorod) and deemed it worthwhile to strike deep rather than urgent need on the front. A couple of missile types aren't that big of a deal tbh

So with that logic you wouldn't have a problem if Russia invaded a NATO and NATO countries reacted, yes or no,

 

[Aussie in exile]

Keep ignoring reality mate

How the kremlins propaganda machine handling Ukraines invasion into Russia?

 

[Aussie in exile]

This is what happens when you consume propaganda unthinkingly

Read and weep

Ukraine war: Cross-border attack into Russia's Kursk enters fifth day

Russia has declared a "counter-terror" operation in three regions, as it struggles to contain the incursion.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Chief]

Adam always delivers Something:



(A few THOUSAND books produced with state backing to cook Russian brains, covering the adventures of time-travelling Russians bringing modern weapons back in time to rewrite history so Russia ends up winning all the battles and wars they really lost, and the English are demolished so they never colonise anyone and so the USA never exists and the Russian empire rules the world forever because everyone else is "Nazis" and "fascists" but Russia is "progressive" and pure.)

 

[Chief]

Meanwhile, TikTok commentators getting attacked and hacked from Russian sources.

Could just be a coincidence they comment on the Farage-right in the UK.

 

[Jamolad]

...The restriction thing is hot air, "stop holding me back bro". Ukraine has been striking Russian territory for as long as they could(see Belgorod) and deemed it worthwhile to strike deep rather than urgent need on the front. A couple of missile types aren't that big of a deal tbh

In fairness, Ukraine has probably struck Belgorod less times than Russia has.

 

[barreness]

Read and weep

Ukraine war: Cross-border attack into Russia's Kursk enters fifth day

Russia has declared a "counter-terror" operation in three regions, as it struggles to contain the incursion.

www.bbc.co.uk

Was a move largely unpredicted; could be based, could be the flickering of a light before it blows, we'll see in a few weeks

Explain to me why you support Russias illeagle invasion of Ukraine.

I don't, the least bird flu hawk in this thread

So with that logic you wouldn't have a problem if Russia invaded a NATO and NATO countries reacted, yes or no,

That would be WW3 and probable nuclear war

How the kremlins propaganda machine handling Ukraines invasion into Russia?

Cute how you came up with a second more 'cutting' reply after a few minutes

 

[barreness]

There is only 1 reason to get upset about an expansion of a defensive pact

You come across as the type of person that will rob their neighbours because you are upset they all joined neighbourhood watch.

Or just consider that they won't ever have to defend because they have three nuclear armed countries and the largest force projection in human history. It's a political block that does make aggressive wars though

For someone who preaches for Russia you certainly don't listen to what they actually say about anything do you.

Most of what they say is propaganda, same for all countries really

Because as I've mentioned before, the majority are small countries with small armies...it makes no sense for them to potentially bring forward an invasion and then not have the soliders required to defend until NATO arrives.
Providing equiment at the levels they have is impressive.

Ok so not willing to risk their troops

NATO provided weaponry is 0.

semantics

Individual EU countries is significant. Slowly they are allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia

Of course it would have made a different, granted it would have been mainly stopping the cruise missiles hitting apartments, hospitals and childcare centres, but you've already acknowledged you don't believe that happens, so I can accept in your view it wouldn't make a difference.

Never said that, but go ahead and verbal me

But glide bombs also caused havoc recently, it would have helped reduce those.

The delay however forced Ukraine to have to develop their own capacity, So Russia got two years of bombing hospitals and apartment complexes.

Anyway hopefully this whole argument is moot and this Kursk incursion can help topple Putin.

Sure, why not

 

[Cap]

Or just consider that they won't ever have to defend because they have three nuclear armed countries and the largest force projection in human history. It's a political block that does make aggressive wars though

Most of what they say is propaganda, same for all countries really

Ok so not willing to risk their troops

semantics

Never said that, but go ahead and verbal me

Sure, why not

you've always down played the genocidal part of this war and the deliberate targeting of civilians.

Your whole position can be summarised by

Russia say something bad - thats just propaganda and they dont mean it

Russia do something bad - it wasn't that bad, US have done worse and Ukraine are probably making it up.

anyway, enough of this. Its game day in the SFA!

 

[jatz14]

Another possible reason for the incursion in Kursk.

If you saw the footage of Putin in the meeting with his military, thats an unhappy man.

Its the nature of autocrats to gaslight themselves, their subordinates don't want to give them bad news, so everything is massaged and manipulated to make them happy. A classic case being the Russian drastic underestimation of Ukrainian willingness and capacity to fight, and the Wests willingness to help them.

Another possible source of misinformation at the moment may be, Ukraine is about to crack, they cannot sustain it much more, they are at their limit, if we keep up the meatwave attacks a little longer, they will fold (the Bareness line in other words)

So, if their military is at their limit, Russia opened a new front, which they stopped, and started to roll back, then launched an attack into Russia itself, which is going to take months for Russia to deal with.

So, if Putins advisers have been telling him, victory is close, they cannot keep this up much longer, he may now have more questions.

Its hard to convince yourself that your close to winning, while your still struggling to kick the army thats too exhausted to fight, out of your territory.

Whatever timeline Putin had, has just been extended, and he still needs a way out, and there still doesn't appear to be one other than offer the Ukrainians something thats attractive enough to bring them back to the table.

 

[Chief]

Perhaps they can swap captured territory and kidnapped children?

 

[Zidane98]

Perhaps they can swap captured territory and kidnapped children?

Won't be long before Ukraine captures Kursk NPP and trades it for Zaporizhia NPP.