Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[ibd77]

Another possible reason for the incursion in Kursk.

If you saw the footage of Putin in the meeting with his military, thats an unhappy man.

Its the nature of autocrats to gaslight themselves, their subordinates don't want to give them bad news, so everything is massaged and manipulated to make them happy. A classic case being the Russian drastic underestimation of Ukrainian willingness and capacity to fight, and the Wests willingness to help them.

Another possible source of misinformation at the moment may be, Ukraine is about to crack, they cannot sustain it much more, they are at their limit, if we keep up the meatwave attacks a little longer, they will fold (the Bareness line in other words)

So, if their military is at their limit, Russia opened a new front, which they stopped, and started to roll back, then launched an attack into Russia itself, which is going to take months for Russia to deal with.

So, if Putins advisers have been telling him, victory is close, they cannot keep this up much longer, he may now have more questions.

Its hard to convince yourself that your close to winning, while your still struggling to kick the army thats too exhausted to fight, out of your territory.

Whatever timeline Putin had, has just been extended, and he still needs a way out, and there still doesn't appear to be one other than offer the Ukrainians something thats attractive enough to bring them back to the table.

Probably the main reason for this offensive is US support going forward. Ukraine needs to demonstrate that the money US has been pumping in isn't being wasted on a lost cause. With an election coming up, the Democrats need results to justify continued support. Noticed how quiet the Trump, MAGA & Russian propagandists camp have been lately?

Timing is everything and Ukraine made this move perfectly. There are probably on a few weeks left before rain season comes and turns everything to mud again, slowing every ones progress. I think Ukraine will be happy to take a portion of the land and setup defenses to hold it as a bargaining chip going forward.

 

[wannabejack]

China claims its Ukraine peace plan has support of more than 110 countries

China officially declares itself a neutral party to Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine and has denied providing lethal aid to both sides, but Beijing and Moscow continue to develop closer ties, most recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting his counterpart Xi Jinping in May.

kyivindependent.com

The inviolability of territorial integrity is one of the fundamental principles of China’s foreign policy and how China perceives its role in international affairs, this being related to its aspirations regarding Taiwan. This gives reason to confidently assume that Beijing has no intention to impose on Kyiv the demand to give up its territories to Russia in exchange for an end to the war, but it does not demand either that Moscow withdraw its troops from its occupied parts of Ukraine as a first precondition for the start of peace negotiations.

It is unknown for sure why Beijing gave up its initial plan, which was supported by all the countries amicable to China and highly praised by Moscow. There is a distinct difference this plan has compared to the six-point consensus; the latter omits a provision on respect for all countries’ territorial integrity and sovereignty based on the UN Charter.

So China's position is now based on the six-point consensus, which harbors a danger for Ukraine and is more than welcome for the Kremlin.

There is a pretty high probability that the Sino-Brazilian “peace” initiative will find sufficient support, given that over 110 countries have already responded positively to it, as claimed by China. This means to say that the global community is going to put pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to make them respect and fulfil the majority’s decisions.

The Kremlin will certainly ignore the UN General Assembly’s consensus resolution, as it did with respect to all the decisions taken by international institutions unsympathetic to Moscow. But for Ukraine, it may be more difficult to disobey a decision by the world’s majority and avoid pressure and demands to take steps towards a ceasefire. As another option, Russia’s shelling attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities will probably add arguments in favor of Ukraine rejecting ceasefire deal with Moscow and continuing fighting against the aggressor state.

From another article
The six-point plan calls for:
1. Non-escalation or provocations by either side.
2. An international peace conference accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, and which includes "fair discussion" of all peace plans.
3. An increase of humanitarian assistance to "prevent a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale," as well as an exchange of POWs, and no attacks on civilians.
4. All possible efforts must be made to "prevent nuclear proliferation and avoid nuclear crisis."
5. Attacks on nuclear power plants and other peaceful nuclear facilities "must be opposed."
6. Enhanced international cooperation on several issues in order to "protect the stability of global industrial and supply chains."
It makes no mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity or the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

 

[Aussie in exile]

China claims its Ukraine peace plan has support of more than 110 countries

China officially declares itself a neutral party to Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine and has denied providing lethal aid to both sides, but Beijing and Moscow continue to develop closer ties, most recently with Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting his counterpart Xi Jinping in May.

kyivindependent.com

The inviolability of territorial integrity is one of the fundamental principles of China’s foreign policy and how China perceives its role in international affairs, this being related to its aspirations regarding Taiwan. This gives reason to confidently assume that Beijing has no intention to impose on Kyiv the demand to give up its territories to Russia in exchange for an end to the war, but it does not demand either that Moscow withdraw its troops from its occupied parts of Ukraine as a first precondition for the start of peace negotiations.

It is unknown for sure why Beijing gave up its initial plan, which was supported by all the countries amicable to China and highly praised by Moscow. There is a distinct difference this plan has compared to the six-point consensus; the latter omits a provision on respect for all countries’ territorial integrity and sovereignty based on the UN Charter.

So China's position is now based on the six-point consensus, which harbors a danger for Ukraine and is more than welcome for the Kremlin.

There is a pretty high probability that the Sino-Brazilian “peace” initiative will find sufficient support, given that over 110 countries have already responded positively to it, as claimed by China. This means to say that the global community is going to put pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to make them respect and fulfil the majority’s decisions.

The Kremlin will certainly ignore the UN General Assembly’s consensus resolution, as it did with respect to all the decisions taken by international institutions unsympathetic to Moscow. But for Ukraine, it may be more difficult to disobey a decision by the world’s majority and avoid pressure and demands to take steps towards a ceasefire. As another option, Russia’s shelling attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities will probably add arguments in favor of Ukraine rejecting ceasefire deal with Moscow and continuing fighting against the aggressor state.

From another article
The six-point plan calls for:
1. Non-escalation or provocations by either side.
2. An international peace conference accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, and which includes "fair discussion" of all peace plans.
3. An increase of humanitarian assistance to "prevent a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale," as well as an exchange of POWs, and no attacks on civilians.
4. All possible efforts must be made to "prevent nuclear proliferation and avoid nuclear crisis."
5. Attacks on nuclear power plants and other peaceful nuclear facilities "must be opposed."
6. Enhanced international cooperation on several issues in order to "protect the stability of global industrial and supply chains."
It makes no mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity or the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Any country that gets in bed with China will regret down the line, and Russia will regret this.
China can't be trusted on any level, and i speak as someone who in the past had worked there for several years.
If you ignore China you ignore the elephant in the room

 

[barreness]

you've always down played the genocidal part of this war and the deliberate targeting of civilians.

Your whole position can be summarised by

Russia say something bad - thats just propaganda and they dont mean it

Russia do something bad - it wasn't that bad, US have done worse and Ukraine are probably making it up.

anyway, enough of this. Its game day in the SFA!

You're stretching the meaning of the term genocide, if we just throw it around willy nilly then it's meaningless(ie cultural genocide).

If this war is genocidal then every war is, which is a fine position but it's pacifist and you can't back the arming and funding of Ukrainians in the same breathe

 

[barreness]

Any country that gets in bed with China will regret down the line, and Russia will regret this.
China can't be trusted on any level, and i speak as someone who in the past had worked there for several years.
If you ignore China you ignore the elephant in the room

Australia runs off exports/imports to China, such a short-sighted view

 

[Cap]

You're stretching the meaning of the term genocide, if we just throw it around willy nilly then it's meaningless(ie cultural genocide).

If this war is genocidal then every war is, which is a fine position but it's pacifist and you can't back the arming and funding of Ukrainians in the same breathe

that's not even remotely true, which you know.

So yes, you can point put out Putin is committing genocide and arm the people he is trying to exterminate regardless of the gymnastics you try to perform.

 

[Chief]

You're stretching the meaning of the term genocide, if we just throw it around willy nilly then it's meaningless(ie cultural genocide).

Russia's actions and stated intentions exactly fit the generally accepted points of genocide.

Including taking children.

 

[barreness]

Russia's actions and stated intentions exactly fit the generally accepted points of genocide.

Including taking children.

that's not even remotely true, which you know.

So yes, you can point put out Putin is committing genocide and arm the people he is trying to exterminate regardless of the gymnastics you try to perform.

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

All kinds of insane numbers have been floated but once again you lot have been hoodwinked by propaganda. If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back. But sure they've stolen 100k kids because Russia have millions to spend educating them in a collapsing economy or something

 

[Chief]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

Oh you are so pilled.

 

[barreness]

Oh you are so pilled.

I tried the red one but it only filled me with maoist rage

 

[Cap]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

All kinds of insane numbers have been floated but once again you lot have been hoodwinked by propaganda. If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back. But sure they've stolen 100k kids because Russia have millions to spend educating them in a collapsing economy or something

Russian 'child snatcher' admits taking 700,000 children

A Russian official accused of war crimes has admitted to relocating more than 700,000 children from Ukraine.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Even if 700,000 is not correct, its still going to be a huge number and not just a few kids from the front lines....

Its not even a new strategy

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/03/opinions/russia-history-deporting-ukraine-children-hook-gaidai/index.html

Lets not forget its hard to claim your children when you've been killed because they bombed your apartment/supermarket, workplace

but whatever, you choose to believe what you want.

 

[Mobbs]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

Removing them to within the territory of a country in combat with their own, is a war crime.

There's evidence all up the ying yang. But then again you QUESTIONED THE INTENT OF MISSILES AIMED AT A CHILDRENS HOSPITAL so I guess whatever destroys children or childrens lives is pretty much same same and whatever for you.

 

[Chief]

Lets not forget its hard to claim your children when you've been killed because they bombed your apartment/supermarket, workplace

Make orphans, then "rescue" them from your front line troops who are known to rape kids.

Such selfless acts. Why are we criticising them?

 

[Cap]

Make orphans, then "rescue" them from your front line troops who are known to rape kids.

Such selfless acts. Why are we criticising them?

I guess they wouldn't do the rape and tourture thing if other countries stopped joining defensive pacts designed to stop them raping and tourturing people.

It's all the USAs fault really

 

[wannabejack]

"a few kids from an orphanage near the front line" ??



"The best example, actually, the one that resonates with me is the theft of children by the Nazis from German occupied territory.."

 

[GhostofJimJess]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

All kinds of insane numbers have been floated but once again you lot have been hoodwinked by propaganda. If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back. But sure they've stolen 100k kids because Russia have millions to spend educating them in a collapsing economy or something

What if you're wrong?

 

[CD Xbow]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

All kinds of insane numbers have been floated but once again you lot have been hoodwinked by propaganda. If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back. But sure they've stolen 100k kids because Russia have millions to spend educating them in a collapsing economy or something

Russian always steal children. One of there barbaric habits. They did it extensively in WWII and it's aftermath, the did it during the Chechen war and did it in the various Ukraine conflicts. The best figure I can find is over 19,000 missing with evidence they have been taken. The authors of the report acknowledge it's likely to be higher.

 

[jatz14]

What if you're wrong?

He will move to a new talking point.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Chief]

If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back.

Back to this.

Only a few kids from an orphanage.

The Russians will return them if their parents/relatives get in touch.

Orphanage.

Parents.

Do you see what you're saying here?

Why not arrange with the Ukrainian government for their transfer, put them on a plane and send them home?

 

[Zidane98]

Australia runs off exports/imports to China, such a short-sighted view

Not at all, China are catcus without our iron ore so it's very much a two way balance of trade with neither side able to hold power over the other.

 

[Zidane98]

The only evidence is a few kids from an orphanage near the front line, should they have left them there?

All kinds of insane numbers have been floated but once again you lot have been hoodwinked by propaganda. If parents/relatives turn up or apply they are free to take the kids back. But sure they've stolen 100k kids because Russia have millions to spend educating them in a collapsing economy or something

Excerpt taken from official ICC press release

Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova

Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin...

www.icc-cpi.int

Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.


Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).



I'm sorry comrade but this isn't propaganda, this is cold hard reality. Your leader is up on war crimes charges for kidnapping children en masse from UK. This warrant is only issued after a thorough legal process with both respondents here given plenty of opportunities to counter the pending arrest warrant.

It shows how low you are prepared to go to defend Putin by suggesting that it's propaganda. The facts are Putin has kidnapped huge amounts of Ukranian children through filtration camps.

 

[Chief]

barreness are you OK? Did your home in Kursk get bombed?

 

[wannabejack]

Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream explosion, media claim

The man, a diving instructor introduced simply as Volodymyr Z., was last seen in a Polish town west of Warsaw, but his current whereabouts are unknown, the investigation by ARD, Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Zeit said.

kyivindependent.com

The media investigation claimed that two other suspects – a man and a woman – are also Ukrainian citizens but uncovered no evidence of the Ukrainian government's involvement. Kyiv has repeatedly denied connection to the Nord Stream blasts.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Even Russians now must be worried about how safe they are under little legs.

Steve Rosenberg: Ukraine's advance undermines Putin's image as 'Mr Security'

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk raises questions about Mr Putin's ability to keep Russia safe.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[wannabejack]

"The success of Ukraine's incursion illustrates once more Russia's strategic ineptitude, administrative deficiencies, and material shortcomings. These weaknesses were already evident in 2022 during the failed Russian attack on Kyiv in the spring and the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts in the autumn. The current Ukrainian operation again undermines the narrative of Russia's alleged invincibility and superiority – a mirage often propagated to justify a Russian victor's peace with Ukrainian territorial concessions."