Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Chief]

Waiting for the nukes to drop.

Should be any day now.

Maybe as soon as, what Trump would call, two weeks?

 

[barreness]

Russian 'child snatcher' admits taking 700,000 children

A Russian official accused of war crimes has admitted to relocating more than 700,000 children from Ukraine.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Even if 700,000 is not correct, its still going to be a huge number and not just a few kids from the front lines....

Its not even a new strategy

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/03/opinions/russia-history-deporting-ukraine-children-hook-gaidai/index.html

Lets not forget its hard to claim your children when you've been killed because they bombed your apartment/supermarket, workplace

but whatever, you choose to believe what you want.

I mean it's the tele, the link about 700,000 links to this
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...-war-latest-counter-offensive-nuclear-threat/
There's nothing about children here, insane claim.

Children’s ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova said that while most had been sent to Russia accompanied by relatives, this did not apply to around 1,500 individuals.
Seems more reasonable(from your article), and remains a war crime but debatable if they're orphans

 

[barreness]

Russian always steal children. One of there barbaric habits. They did it extensively in WWII and it's aftermath, the did it during the Chechen war and did it in the various Ukraine conflicts. The best figure I can find is over 19,000 missing with evidence they have been taken. The authors of the report acknowledge it's likely to be higher.

Honestly I'm struggling to find sources for this?

Look they probably did take many hundreds(perhaps more), some orphans, some just separated. Still a war crime yes, but what do you expect them to do, leave them on the front?

 

[barreness]

What if you're wrong?

I could be, what if you are?

Not sure if there is the evidence to hang them yet is all

 

[barreness]

Back to this.

Only a few kids from an orphanage.

The Russians will return them if their parents/relatives get in touch.

Orphanage.

Parents.

Do you see what you're saying here?

Why not arrange with the Ukrainian government for their transfer, put them on a plane and send them home?

This has happened with 400 odd children so far
https://www.international.gc.ca/wor...crises/ukraine-children-enfants.aspx?lang=eng

Plane might be a touch risky

 

[barreness]

Not at all, China are catcus without our iron ore so it's very much a two way balance of trade with neither side able to hold power over the other.

And Australia is very much cooked without our Iron ore exports, you see what I'm saying here?

There's more iron ore deposits than at scale customers so you can deduce the power balance here

 

[Chief]

This has happened with 400 odd children so far
https://www.international.gc.ca/wor...crises/ukraine-children-enfants.aspx?lang=eng

Plane might be a touch risky

Sure thing, comrade.

2024 Russian prisoner exchange - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Chief]

One thing you do when you fully intend for refugees to go home is send them 5000 miles away, demand they renounce their citizenship for Russian citizenship (which locks them into staying in the town for 3 years), and tell them you have saved them from Nazis.



At least a tank driver gave her child bread as they were fleeing on foot from their bombed out city.

Why has Putin not been given the Nobel Prize yet?!?!

 

[wannabejack]

Almost all have been “brainwashed,” said Mykola Kuleba, head of Save Ukraine, a nonprofit organisation that helps to retrieve Ukrainian children from Russian-controlled territory. “And we will never be able to take them back. Because they hate, hate Ukraine now,” he said.

 

[Zidane98]

And Australia is very much cooked without our Iron ore exports, you see what I'm saying here?

There's more iron ore deposits than at scale customers so you can deduce the power balance here

We have plenty of customers for iron ore tovarisch. China needs us more than we need them. Hence why the trading relationship continues.

 

[Zidane98]

Honestly I'm struggling to find sources for this?

Look they probably did take many hundreds(perhaps more), some orphans, some just separated. Still a war crime yes, but what do you expect them to do, leave them on the front?

Putin & his child safety commissioner have an international warrant against their names for child deportation on a large scale. This doesn't happen for what you've just described.

This fact means you simply cannot downplay Russia and its policy of kidnapping Ukranian children against the will of guardians.

You should be horrified by how your nation has behaved here comrade.

 

[wannabejack]

Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream explosion, media claim

The man, a diving instructor introduced simply as Volodymyr Z., was last seen in a Polish town west of Warsaw, but his current whereabouts are unknown, the investigation by ARD, Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Zeit said.

kyivindependent.com

The media investigation claimed that two other suspects – a man and a woman – are also Ukrainian citizens but uncovered no evidence of the Ukrainian government's involvement. Kyiv has repeatedly denied connection to the Nord Stream blasts.

Ukraine Rejects as ‘Nonsense’ Alleged Role in Nord Stream Blasts

Speculation has long swirled about who was behind the operation, with both Ukraine and Russia denying any involvement.

www.kyivpost.com

Six people were directly involved in carrying out the operation, which cost around $300,000 and was privately financed, the report said.
Using a rented yacht, they sailed out to the area of the pipelines and dived down to lay explosives on them, it said.

Zelensky also initially approved the operation, but when the CIA learned of the plan, they asked him to stop it going ahead and he ordered a halt, according to the report.
Zaluzhny, who was removed from his post earlier this year in a shake-up, pushed ahead anyway, the WSJ said, citing Ukrainian officials.

 

[wannabejack]

Analysis: Disarming Belarus: Lukashenko Attempts to Keep Power by Weapons Transfers to Russia

Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region poses difficult geopolitical challenges for the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, which require asymmetric responses.

www.kyivpost.com

“Belarus is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, a NATO-like alliance created by Russia from several post-Soviet republics), and according to the new CSTO doctrine, when one member is attacked, others should help, as far as possible. It is quite realistic that Lukashenko, by imitating a threat from Ukraine, is trying to ‘ward off’ the need to send his troops to help the Russians in the Kursk region, especially given the attitude of the Belarusian army towards the Russian-Ukrainian war,” ...

However, according to Belarusian media, Lukashenko found another way to help Russia – a batch of Belarusian armored vehicles was sent to Russia.

...reducing the combat capability of the Belarusian army is a plus for Ukraine, which can reduce its troop presence on the border with Belarus and deploy more units in the East, for example. Also, such involvement of Belarusian equipment indicates problems with resources and equipment supplies in Russia itself,”...

 

[barreness]

Sure thing, comrade.

2024 Russian prisoner exchange - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They're not prisoners, jesus christ read the link, it's not pro russian

Now offering up Ukrainian orphans for adoption in Russia is very suspect, but I could understand the reasoning

 

[barreness]

We have plenty of customers for iron ore tovarisch. China needs us more than we need them. Hence why the trading relationship continues.

Lol, sweet stats mate

2021 iron ore importers; 70% is China, the next best is Japan at 7%(which we already export to), South Korea at 5%(you guessed it)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270008/top-importing-countries-of-iron-ore/

Which market did you have in mind? Proxima B possibly? India has their own iron ore

China most definitely doesn't need us more than we need them

 

[barreness]

Putin & his child safety commissioner have an international warrant against their names for child deportation on a large scale. This doesn't happen for what you've just described.

I mean politics certainly does factor into who gets arrest warrants and who fulfils them. Bibi certainly free to tour many parts of the world. Every American president has been a war criminal

Putin was invited to Mexico with a guarantee of no arrest
https://www.reuters.com/world/mexic...arrest-russias-putin-during-visit-2024-08-08/

What are we to make of the fact that in its eleven-year history, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has prosecuted only Africans?
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/14/africa-attacks-international-criminal-court

This fact means you simply cannot downplay Russia and its policy of kidnapping Ukranian children against the will of guardians.

You should be horrified by how your nation has behaved here comrade.

I'm horrified by most of the world, it's the first stage of grief, some of us have moved on to acceptance

 

[jatz14]

Lol, sweet stats mate

2021 iron ore importers; 70% is China, the next best is Japan at 7%(which we already export to), South Korea at 5%(you guessed it)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270008/top-importing-countries-of-iron-ore/

Which market did you have in mind? Proxima B possibly? India has their own iron ore

China most definitely doesn't need us more than we need them

This is a MAD situation. For some exports, we cannot easily replace them, but they cannot easily replace us either.

However, being a totalitarian state, their capacity to inflict damage on their society in pursuit of CCP policy goals is greater than our governments ability to inflict damage on Australian society in pursuit of geopolitical goals.

Its just that none of the issues arising have been sufficiently serious to warrant such extreme action. Its been symbolic more than anything.

 

[barreness]

This is a MAD situation. For some exports, we cannot easily replace them, but they cannot easily replace us either.

Yep, and if you read the previous posts you'd see that's exactly what I was arguing. Brazil's iron ore is feasibly more accessible than manufactured consumer goods(from Japan?) but that's a deep argument

However, being a totalitarian state, their capacity to inflict damage on their society in pursuit of CCP policy goals is greater than our governments ability to inflict damage on Australian society in pursuit of geopolitical goals.

Damage? They have a greater ability to unify and direct their society in a certain direction, is that damage?

Our govt is an expression of the bourgeoisie elite, they've shown they've got an almost unlimited power to do damage(?/direct) to Australian society

Its just that none of the issues arising have been sufficiently serious to warrant such extreme action. Its been symbolic more than anything.

Of course, you should read back to see what I was arguing against

 

[Chief]

I'm horrified by most of the world, it's the first stage of grief, some of us have moved on to acceptance

Repeating the lies of the abductors is "acceptance"?

 

[Zidane98]

I mean politics certainly does factor into who gets arrest warrants and who fulfils them. Bibi certainly free to tour many parts of the world. Every American president has been a war criminal

Putin was invited to Mexico with a guarantee of no arrest
https://www.reuters.com/world/mexic...arrest-russias-putin-during-visit-2024-08-08/

What are we to make of the fact that in its eleven-year history, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has prosecuted only Africans?
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/01/14/africa-attacks-international-criminal-court

I'm horrified by most of the world, it's the first stage of grief, some of us have moved on to acceptance

There is nothing political at all about Putin's arrest warrant.

It's clear he has deliberately targetting Ukranian children for large scale filtration, resettlement in Russia (often in Siberia so there's almost no hope they can find their way home themselves).

It's clear attempt to destroy Ukranian culture. Brainwash kids repeatedly that they are not Ukranian but really Russian.

The evidence is everywhere, even from Russians themselves admitting it.

This is an absolute fact you can't escape from.

 

[wannabejack]

..

It's clear he has deliberately targetting Ukranian children for large scale filtration, resettlement in Russia (often in Siberia so there's almost no hope they can find their way home themselves).

It's clear attempt to destroy Ukranian culture. Brainwash kids repeatedly that they are not Ukranian but really Russian.

...

As we all know, there's a long history of "resettlement" to Siberia.

 

[jatz14]

Yep, and if you read the previous posts you'd see that's exactly what I was arguing. Brazil's iron ore is feasibly more accessible than manufactured consumer goods(from Japan?) but that's a deep argument

Damage? They have a greater ability to unify and direct their society in a certain direction, is that damage?

Our govt is an expression of the bourgeoisie elite, they've shown they've got an almost unlimited power to do damage(?/direct) to Australian society

Of course, you should read back to see what I was arguing against

Yes. If the people have no choice, they are not unified, they are obedient. If they are harmed by what they cannot avoid, that is damage.
Our government doesn't have an unlimited power to inflict damage, just more taking what you believe, and adding unending hyperbole. The nature of our government is weakness, they steer a path between competing forces. The exact nature of the path varies a bit by the nature of the government, but only a bit.

The Chinese government has a greater capacity to just ignore internal forces, IF IT SO CHOOSES, which, generally they aren't going to, that's just not smart. The Australian governments ability to ignore internal forces is like an order of magnitude less, whoever you think they are beholding to.

 

[barreness]

Repeating the lies of the abductors is "acceptance"?

It's a state chief. Repeating the lies of either side is propaganda, try to burrow down and spot what truth you can(fog of war, all that jazz)

 

[barreness]

There is nothing political at all about Putin's arrest warrant.

There's politics at the heart of all ICC/ICJ warrants

It's clear he has deliberately targetting Ukranian children for large scale filtration, resettlement in Russia (often in Siberia so there's almost no hope they can find their way home themselves).

Siberia? source?

It's clear attempt to destroy Ukranian culture.

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attract...iews-Hotel_Ukraine-Moscow_Central_Russia.html
Hotel Ukrania still a pretty nice place in Moscow if you'd like to visit

Brainwash kids repeatedly that they are not Ukranian but really Russian.

The evidence is everywhere, even from Russians themselves admitting it.

This is an absolute fact you can't escape from.

Ok, so link something

 

[barreness]

Yes. If the people have no choice, they are not unified, they are obedient. If they are harmed by what they cannot avoid, that is damage.
Our government doesn't have an unlimited power to inflict damage, just more taking what you believe, and adding unending hyperbole. The nature of our government is weakness, they steer a path between competing forces. The exact nature of the path varies a bit by the nature of the government, but only a bit.

The Chinese government has a greater capacity to just ignore internal forces, IF IT SO CHOOSES, which, generally they aren't going to, that's just not smart. The Australian governments ability to ignore internal forces is like an order of magnitude less, whoever you think they are beholding to.

The Australian govt is more than able to ignore the internal force of civilian's opinions, the interests of powerful capital sectors not so much, the interest of the US empire even less so