Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Chief]

It's a state chief. Repeating the lies of either side is propaganda, try to burrow down and spot what truth you can(fog of war, all that jazz)

So, burrowing down to a lie and repeating that online is "acceptance"?

 

[jatz14]

The Australian govt is more than able to ignore the internal force of civilian's opinions, the interests of powerful capital sectors not so much, the interest of the US empire even less so

It is able, and has, ignored civilians opinions, to a point. The flaw in your argument is the assumption that Australians civil opinions are a univocal voice, or, more likely, you assume that the section of civil society that espouses an opinion you approve of, is the real voice of Australia. So, the government ignoring them is the government ignoring the wishes of the people.

As for bowing down to the US, that is entirely voluntary, not some sign of compulsion and coercion.

This relationship is a BDSM relationship, not a master slave relationship, we have a safe word, we get a say. We are where we are because we want to be there.

If you don't like it,

Talking about it in trigger words changes reality in no way at all.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

There's politics at the heart of all ICC/ICJ warrants

Show us examples of this and how politics were allegedly involved in the ICC issuing an arrest warrant. Bonus points for proving that the ICC issued arrest warrants without show cause.

Siberia? source?

Putin ‘resettling Ukrainians 5,500 miles away in Russia’s far east

People in Mariupol are being asked to sign papers claiming Ukrainian troops shelled their city

www.independent.co.uk

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attract...iews-Hotel_Ukraine-Moscow_Central_Russia.html
Hotel Ukrania still a pretty nice place in Moscow if you'd like to visit

What would happen to the hotel owners if they decided to rename it Slava Ukraina and drape it with Ukranian flags everywhere?

Ok, so link something

More Than 700,000 Ukrainian Children Taken To Russia Since Full-Scale War Started, Official Says

Russian children's commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova has said that more than 700,000 Ukrainian children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

Direct admission from Russia's child commissioner that they had taken children to Ukraine. Not just a few either like you previously alluded to. It's systemic, on a large scale and definitely an attempt to destroy Ukranian culture / identity. Instead of defending it you should be outraged comrade.


We get it comrade, you are told a different "reality" over there but it is encouraging that you are slowly coming around to the fact that Putin is a fascist that must be stopped before we have another WW2 on our hands.

 

[Zidane98]

Andrei Illarionov: I was Putin’s right-hand man in the Kremlin — here’s what you don’t know about him and why the Ukraine war will end in only one way • InView.org.uk • Independent News

Andrei Illarionov reveals the reason why Vlad turned against the West

inview.org.uk

Putin's always harbored dreams of recreating a new Russian empire, right back to his early days as President. He's always wanted Ukraine, NATO or no NATO. He clearly fears a Ukraine in NATO can no longer be invaded, attacked & subjugated.


Someone needs to remind him the colonial expansion era ended in the early 1900s.


Russia will be a shambles of a state as long as it has a bunch cold war era dinosaurs in charge stuck in a USSR like mentality. Going to take many years to rebuild & reimage Russia after this war ends.

 

[Zidane98]

It is able, and has, ignored civilians opinions, to a point. The flaw in your argument is the assumption that Australians civil opinions are a univocal voice, or, more likely, you assume that the section of civil society that espouses an opinion you approve of, is the real voice of Australia. So, the government ignoring them is the government ignoring the wishes of the people.

As for bowing down to the US, that is entirely voluntary, not some sign of compulsion and coercion.

This relationship is a BDSM relationship, not a master slave relationship, we have a safe word, we get a say. We are where we are because we want to be there.

If you don't like it,

Talking about it in trigger words changes reality in no way at all.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Vatniks struggle with the notion of states being free & independent. The mental gynmastics by some trying to liken Australia's relationship to the US being the same as Belarus to Russia is simply laughable.


Ukraine is never going to be a Russian vassal state again and the longer Putin continues invading for no reason the longer it will take to normalise relations between the two states post war.

Surely it is in the interests of Russia to be able to find a way to coexist peacefully with neighboring states that don't want to be a vatnik state like Belarus is.

 

[wannabejack]

China ally hints Putin-Xi pipeline plan is going nowhere

Russia's proposed Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline project to China appears to have hit a roadblock.

www.newsweek.com

Russia's gas sales have withered because of the ongoing war in Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin has since sought to expand the country's foothold in China and other markets. Figures released in January, however, showed that Russia's gas sales to China have failed to make up for the lost trade with Europe caused by Western sanctions imposed over the conflict, which is now in its third year.

A former official at the National Security Council of Mongolia told the newspaper that the pipeline project will likely be delayed.
"We are entering a long pause, where Moscow no longer believes it can get the deal it wishes from Beijing and will probably park the project until better times," Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva said.

Future murky for Russia-China pipeline as Mongolia omits project from plan

Mongolia has left the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline connecting Russia and China out of a long-term action plan, a move observers attribute to sanctions against Moscow and testy price negotiations.

www.scmp.com

 

[Zidane98]

Who knew, Chinese playing the Russians to get cheap gas off them.

How Russia has fallen. Slowly becoming a client state of China

 

[Jello_B]

Russia “repatriating” Ukrainian kids is consistent with their views that Ukraine isn’t a real state. I mean they say this outright.
Not sure why you would argue this one barreness?

 

[rank and file]

Show us examples of this and how politics were allegedly involved in the ICC issuing an arrest warrant. Bonus points for proving that the ICC issued arrest warrants without show cause.

Show us where the ICC arrest warrents against Israel went.
ICC weaker than a paper tiger.

 

[Zidane98]

Show us where the ICC arrest warrents against Israel went.
ICC weaker than a paper tiger.

This is the backdrop to the war in Ukraine thread so this is irrelevant.


Putin & Russia's child commissioner arrest warrant is not political. The Kremlin fully admits to taking large amounts of Ukranian children from Ukraine and resettling them in Russia. They do like to resettle them 5000 miles away in Siberia to make it particularly difficult for the children to find their own way home back to Ukraine.

 

[wannabejack]

Expert warns: “Azerbaijani” gas may mask Russian energy's EU return - Euromaidan Press

As China shatters the Kremlin’s dream to make up for lost gas exports to the EU, an unexpected new player enters the European gas chessboard. However, Baku’s gas offer is but a Trojan horse, warns energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar.

euromaidanpress.com

The gas issue is presumably central to the negotiations. Following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, Russia has drastically reduced its gas exports to Europe, impacting its revenues. In contrast, Azerbaijan has signed an agreement with the EU to increase its exports, positioning itself as an alternative supplier.

Another crucial aspect is the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The current contract expires at the end of 2024, and Kyiv, refusing renewal, explores alternatives – notably, substituting Russian gas with Azerbaijani supplies for EU transit. Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed this as “one of the proposals” under consideration.

On the surface, this idea seems advantageous:

• Depriving Moscow of substantial revenue (over $10 billion during the two years of the full-scale war)
• Ensuring continued EU gas supply
• Maintaining Ukraine’s transit income.

Yet, Ukrainian energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar cautions this might mask another Kremlin stratagem.
Putin and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev are discussing a scheme to continue Russian gas flow through Ukraine under the guise of “Azerbaijani” gas, Mykhailo Gonchar believes.
The scheme is straightforward: An Azerbaijani company would contract with these European countries. Unable to meet demand alone, Azerbaijan would purchase additional gas from Russia, effectively relabeling Russian gas as Azerbaijani for European consumption.

 

[rjslcM]

Adam always delivers Something:



(A few THOUSAND books produced with state backing to cook Russian brains, covering the adventures of time-travelling Russians bringing modern weapons back in time to rewrite history so Russia ends up winning all the battles and wars they really lost, and the English are demolished so they never colonise anyone and so the USA never exists and the Russian empire rules the world forever because everyone else is "Nazis" and "fascists" but Russia is "progressive" and pure.)

What did I just watch?

The alarming part is that it is likely effective and difficult to escape as it begins to filter the perception of many young minds. Bizarrely though as they posture to be this nation of superior people that needs to save the rest of the world from moral corruption; this only serves to weaken and isolate themselves.

Which makes me think they could sell a better story by reinventing themselves a bit.

Russ is an attractive but unsettled young man who finds himself standing at a cross-roads for not the first time in his life. After years of public humiliation and a lack of love at the hands of his father; Russ copes with his childhood trauma by deceiving himself with narratives of superiority daily, while regularly fighting and belittling those around him. However, the one thing that Russ seeks through this - power - is being taken from him as his entire social world decides they are tired of his shit, consequently isolating themselves from him. Will Russ wake up to his self-destructive actions before its too late? Could a chance encounter at the final moment help him to trust and find love again? Will he have the courage to reinvent himself into a more cooperative person, or will he continue to dwell on historical ‘what if’s’ as times run out?

Shades of Good Will Hunting but geopoliticised, should be a real tear-jerker

 

[wannabejack]

Ukraine Has its Foot on Gazprom’s Throat

Russia’s Gazprom continues to send gas even though Ukraine has captured a key technical site in Kursk. The consequences could be serious.

cepa.org

Understanding Gazprom’s approach requires recognition of Sudzha’s strategic significance. It is the only remaining route to deliver gas directly to Europe and became even more crucial after the Yamal and Nord Stream 1 pipelines ceased operations in 2022.

In short, Gazprom can no longer trust the system that proves and details a large part of its exports and therefore its revenues.

Since the company’s employees are no longer there, and anyone can interfere with the metering equipment, its executives can no longer rely on the accuracy of the data produced.

Gazprom is acutely aware that even a brief interruption in transit could make its customers switch to alternative gas supply routes, potentially permanently.

Maintaining gas transit to the separatist region of Transnistria is also crucial for the Kremlin. Without the provision of free gas, the reintegration of this region with Moldova might become possible

Neither Ukraine nor Europe faces substantial risks if the transit were to be interrupted. In fact, it may be more prudent to end it during the summer rather than in January when the demand for gas is at its peak.

 

[wannabejack]

Has the Ukrainian counteroffensive into Kursk dented Putin’s popularity in Russia?

Vladimir’s Putin’s domestic popularity rests on his image as a strong leader who can ensure order. The Ukrainian military’s surprise incursion into the Kursk region has taken 1000 km of Russian territory, and it may be taking a bit of Putin’s prestige, too. Using sentiment analysis

newsletters.filterlabs.ai

In sum, FilterLabs found that the Ukrainian invasion may have indeed tarnished Putin’s prestige. The mainstream national media mostly trumpeted his aid programs. But in using Talisman to collect and analyze local data from Kursk and from social media across the country, FilterLabs was able to find real frustration with the Russian government. The aid was inadequate, the military bungling, and—most dangerously for Putin—the president deserved some of the blame.

Putin’s Media Coverage Suffers in Aftermath of Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Sentiment around Putin is falling in key areas around Russia

newsletters.filterlabs.ai

In sum, sentiment around Putin is falling in key areas around Russia. This development suggests a few potential implications. First, the Russian government can control the tenor of national coverage and mainstream news in Moscow itself. But outside of the national news and capital city, controlling the downward trend of sentiment in news outlets is a more difficult matter amid economic and other challenges.

Second, as we observed in last week’s newsletter, while most mainstream news outlets voice no criticism of the president even when they must mention him in conjunction with bad news, many social media users are directing their discontent with the incursion toward Putin, calling it a failure of the government and of Putin himself. Putin’s response to the incursion—although spun positively in the mainstream news—is seen as inadequate at best and insulting at worst. Our review of regional news coverage also revealed that, compared to national outlets, regional media is less likely to sugarcoat news that is likely to be perceived as negative by their audiences.

Third, reality matters. It is hard to say how consequential the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be, but it is undoubtedly shocking and, for Putin, embarrassing. Propaganda and spin can only do so much in the face of bad news.

 

[barreness]

Russia “repatriating” Ukrainian kids is consistent with their views that Ukraine isn’t a real state. I mean they say this outright.
Not sure why you would argue this one barreness?

It's more the insane numbers that get thrown around re: kids. Have stolen a few, which is a war crime

What is a real state?

 

[barreness]

Show us examples of this and how politics were allegedly involved in the ICC issuing an arrest warrant. Bonus points for proving that the ICC issued arrest warrants without show cause.

Man I did link it, the ICC is for Africans. The whitest they'll go is some former Yugoslavia. Every American President would be in the Hague dungeon if it wasn't political

Where's Bibi's warrant?

Putin ‘resettling Ukrainians 5,500 miles away in Russia’s far east

People in Mariupol are being asked to sign papers claiming Ukrainian troops shelled their city

www.independent.co.uk

ok, that took a lot of paywall rumbling to get through but this is the source

'according to Kremlin documents seen by i'

I news is the daily mail, it's an article from 2 and a half years ago and there's been no follow up, nor did they post the 'Kremlin document'. Any recent follow up on the gulag meme here?

What would happen to the hotel owners if they decided to rename it Slava Ukraina and drape it with Ukranian flags everywhere?

Probably a little risky throwing out fascist shoutouts in the heartland of the soviet union that lost 27 million to the Nazis's

More Than 700,000 Ukrainian Children Taken To Russia Since Full-Scale War Started, Official Says

Russian children's commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova has said that more than 700,000 Ukrainian children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

Direct admission from Russia's child commissioner that they had taken children to Ukraine. Not just a few either like you previously alluded to. It's systemic, on a large scale and definitely an attempt to destroy Ukranian culture / identity. Instead of defending it you should be outraged comrade.

How many times? 700k is an insane number, Ukraine would barely have 700k in total prewar. The Russian kids minister has said 1500 have been moved, seems a reasonable figure

We get it comrade, you are told a different "reality" over there but it is encouraging that you are slowly coming around to the fact that Putin is a fascist that must be stopped before we have another WW2 on our hands.

War is peace, peace is war..........something something Orwell warned

 

[barreness]

It is able, and has, ignored civilians opinions, to a point. The flaw in your argument is the assumption that Australians civil opinions are a univocal voice, or, more likely, you assume that the section of civil society that espouses an opinion you approve of, is the real voice of Australia. So, the government ignoring them is the government ignoring the wishes of the people.

Nah, there's plenty of opinions I disagree with that are ignored too, obviously I think that's a good thing

As for bowing down to the US, that is entirely voluntary, not some sign of compulsion and coercion.

It's voluntary until it's not, see Gough. We signed on to pay them 400 billion for submarines we won't get and to store spent fuel rods down the road from me, only the blind can not see

This relationship is a BDSM relationship, not a master slave relationship, we have a safe word, we get a say. We are where we are because we want to be there.

If you don't like it,

Talking about it in trigger words changes reality in no way at all.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

The safe word is Pine gap and then they change out the leadership for a new one. Closer to a pimp than a daddy, they do attempt some aftercare I guess

 

[Zidane98]

Man I did link it, the ICC is for Africans. The whitest they'll go is some former Yugoslavia. Every American President would be in the Hague dungeon if it wasn't political

Where's Bibi's warrant?

ok, that took a lot of paywall rumbling to get through but this is the source

'according to Kremlin documents seen by i'

I news is the daily mail, it's an article from 2 and a half years ago and there's been no follow up, nor did they post the 'Kremlin document'. Any recent follow up on the gulag meme here?


Probably a little risky throwing out fascist shoutouts in the heartland of the soviet union that lost 27 million to the Nazis's

How many times? 700k is an insane number, Ukraine would barely have 700k in total prewar. The Russian kids minister has said 1500 have been moved, seems a reasonable figure

War is peace, peace is war..........something something Orwell warned

Well there are statues of Stalin everywhere in the so called Russian Federation and he is the ultimate Soviet Nazi collaborator.

 

[barreness]

Well there are statues of Stalin everywhere in the so called Russian Federation and he is the ultimate Soviet Nazi collaborator.

ahahahahaha

We've done this conversation so many times. A non aggression pact is not collaboration, Hitler's Ukrainian puppet in Bandera is quite popular in the nationalist community though

Once again, the soviet union defeated Hitler

 

[Zidane98]

ahahahahaha

We've done this conversation so many times. A non aggression pact is not collaboration, Hitler's Ukrainian puppet in Bandera is quite popular in the nationalist community though

Once again, the soviet union defeated Hitler

You really aren't able to go off script are you tovarisch?

 

[Mobbs]

You really aren't able to go off script are you tovarisch?

Sorry that's not the bit which made me spit out my nicotine gum. I didn't even see that bit!

 

[barreness]

You really aren't able to go off script are you tovarisch?

Sorry that's not the bit which made me spit out my nicotine gum. I didn't even see that bit!

You guys have a warped propagandised sense of history, but go off queens

 

[Mobbs]

You guys have a warped propagandised sense of history, but go off queens

Your Bandera lie has been debunked over and over. You would be well-advised to stop repeating it.

 

[barreness]

Your Bandera lie has been debunked over and over. You would be well-advised to stop repeating it.

Nah it hasn't been debunked, there is a fascist element to Ukrainian nationalism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera_monument_in_Lviv

I would note Zelensky is most certainly not from this camp and was elected on a peace platform, he does have to be aware of them and keep them down because they'll try to kill him at some point

 

[Mobbs]

Nah it hasn't been debunked, there is a fascist element to Ukrainian nationalism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera_monument_in_Lviv

I would note Zelensky is most certainly not from this camp and was elected on a peace platform, he does have to be aware of them and keep them down because they'll try to kill him at some point

"Hitler's Ukrainian puppet" is the lie. Misuse of his legacy might perhaps be outside his range of influence, wouldn't you think?

I'll file this alongside the conflation of "coup" with "revolution" via a conjoined "coup/revolution" phrase, and yet another attempt to assert Azov batallion is pro-nazi.