Confirmed Bailey Smith: 4-way trade: B. Smith (WB) & pick 45 to Geel / pick 38 to Carl / Macrae (WB) to StK / pick 17 & Kennedy (Carl) to WB

[Libbaaaa]

Just seen Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

in a car driving on Punt Rd.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Just seen Bailey Smith in a car driving on Punt Rd.

So it's definitely geelong?

 

[Libbaaaa]

So it's definitely geelong?

The plot thickens

 

[bradfisher14]

???

 

[year of the cat]

???

View attachment 2136939

He's more likely to be spending time at those two hospitals than at Ikon Park,

 

[Ashman23]

He's more likely to be spending time at those two hospitals than at Ikon Park,

With all his charity work?

 

[year of the cat]

With all his charity work?

Of course.

 

[Iago]

Sure, but the Dogs have every right to reject trades and utilise the list management rules that allow for that.

By suggesting that Smith is effectively a Geelong player already, Geelong fans are admitting that they have a right to acquire players more easily and cheaply than other clubs do. There's no two ways about it.

Who is suggesting this?

You're confusing fans with the club. Thankfully fans don't run clubs. You seem to be of the opinion that Geelong believe they have every right to pick up a player without offering something. This is the same Geelong who have traded for free agents in the past. Something I don't believe any other club has done ever.

I am sure you will respond with a "read the thread and see what other Geelong people are writing", again none of these people represent the club in trade negotiations and are either delusional or deliberately winding you up.

 

[STPer18]

TBF on the Rioli one this is Gold Coast we are talking about, they gave you pick 7 to take Jack Bowes off their hands.

The Bowes trade made everyone forget the time we traded them pick 27 for a 1st round priority pick + change. Any trade involving those guys needs a disclaimer added to it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You're confusing fans with the club. Thankfully fans don't run clubs. You seem to be of the opinion that Geelong believe they have every right to pick up a player without offering something. This is the same Geelong who have traded for free agents in the past. Something I don't believe any other club has done ever.

I am sure you will respond with a "read the thread and see what other Geelong people are writing", again none of these people represent the club in trade negotiations and are either delusional or deliberately winding you up.

I'm acting on the basis of Smith's actions and the word from people connected to the situation

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Sure, but the Dogs have every right to reject trades and utilise the list management rules that allow for that.

By suggesting that Smith is effectively a Geelong player already, Geelong fans are admitting that they have a right to acquire players more easily and cheaply than other clubs do. There's no two ways about it.

I understand being a bit salty about it, but in what world does he not go to Geelong ?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I understand being a bit salty about it, but in what world does he not go to Geelong ?

A world that another club drafts him?

 

[Iago]

I'm acting on the basis of Smith's actions and the word from people connected to the situation

By suggesting that Smith is effectively a Geelong player already, Geelong fans are admitting that they have a right to acquire players more easily and cheaply than other clubs do. There's no two ways about it.

Above is what you wrote. How does one correlate to the other?

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

A world that another club drafts him?

So the Bulldogs end up getting nothing to prove some sort of point... And which club would use a high draft pick to take him anyway, knowing he doesn't want to be there ?

 

[Foxman98]

So the Bulldogs end up getting nothing to prove some sort of point... And which club would use a high draft pick to take him anyway, knowing he doesn't want to be there ?

Richmond St Kilda Essendon GWS

 

[threenewpadlocks]

By suggesting that Smith is effectively a Geelong player already, Geelong fans are admitting that they have a right to acquire players more easily and cheaply than other clubs do. There's no two ways about it.

Above is what you wrote. How does one correlate to the other?

• Smith is out of contract but in theory has no right determine which club he gets to. Dogs can either accept that there's an adequate trade for him so the club trading for him doesn't have to risk the draft, or otherwise send him to the draft if they don't like the trade haul. Smith is not a free agent.
• But Geelong and Smith acting as if he's already a Geelong player. Such as nominating a specific club, buying a property in the area.
• The value of the draft pick in terms of expected future output of the player is not as good as Smith. The expectation of Smith's future output is roughly equivalent to a top-10 pick, considering the past evidence of the fact that there is a reasonable chance that any given top 10-20 pick never goes on to play meaningful AFL games. When compared to pick 17, whoever has Bailey Smith would be more likely to win more games over the next 10-15 years with Smith than with pick 17. Therefore, Geelong are acquiring a player more cheaply and easily than the rest of the league.
• Geelong are not inherently entitled to an out-of-contract player even though they nominate them in a trade, that's what free agency mechanisms (and its requirement that a player serve eight years before getting to that stage, or be delisted, offers).
• Geelong fans are turning their noses up at the fact that they might have to pay trade assets roughly equivalent to Smiths' future output as a player.
• They are doing this by saying "we'll just take him in the draft", suggesting that other clubs wouldn't
• And the reason they're suggesting that other clubs wouldn't, because Smith would discourage other clubs to draft him, which given he's required to go through a draft, is in theory draft tampering.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

So the Bulldogs end up getting nothing to prove some sort of point...

It's not a matter of proving a point, it's a matter of leveraging the fact that Geelong don't want to take any risks with their acquisition of Smith against Geelong, given their existing commitment to him. Geelong already understand there's not no risk otherwise they wouldn't even bother offering anything at all, because nothing is better than something. Why offer pick 17 at all to the Dogs if you can just draft him?

And which club would use a high draft pick to take him anyway, knowing he doesn't want to be there ?

Tampering.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

But Geelong and Smith acting as if he's already a Geelong player. Such as nominating a specific club, buying a property in the area.

That's not completely true. These are all actions of Smith and Smith alone.
He nominated a club and he bought property.

The value of the draft pick in terms of expected future output of the player is not as good as Smith. The expectation of Smith's future output is roughly equivalent to a top-10 pick, considering the past evidence of the fact that there is a reasonable chance that any given top 10-20 pick never goes on to play meaningful AFL games. When compared to pick 17, whoever has Bailey Smith would be more likely to win more games over the next 10-15 years with Smith than with pick 17. Therefore, Geelong are acquiring a player more cheaply and easily than the rest of the league.

You're surprised players out of contract will attract value under their worth? That's just how it goes.

 

[Iago]

• Smith is out of contract but in theory has no right determine which club he gets to. Dogs can either accept that there's an adequate trade for him so the club trading for him doesn't have to risk the draft, or otherwise send him to the draft if they don't like the trade haul. Smith is not a free agent.
• But Geelong and Smith acting as if he's already a Geelong player. Such as nominating a specific club, buying a property in the area.
• The value of the draft pick in terms of expected future output of the player is not as good as Smith. The expectation of Smith's future output is roughly equivalent to a top-10 pick, considering the past evidence of the fact that there is a reasonable chance that any given top 10-20 pick never goes on to play meaningful AFL games. When compared to pick 17, whoever has Bailey Smith would be more likely to win more games over the next 10-15 years with Smith than with pick 17. Therefore, Geelong are acquiring a player more cheaply and easily than the rest of the league.
• Geelong are not inherently entitled to an out-of-contract player even though they nominate them in a trade, that's what free agency mechanisms (and its requirement that a player serve eight years before getting to that stage, or be delisted, offers).

So you have the same problem with every out of contract player nominating which club they would like to be traded to?

I am sure Smith is allowed to buy property where ever he chooses, like any other person in the country. Some people buy property in cities they never plan to live in!

Again I ask you, how are Geelong acting like he is already a Geelong player?

 

[Turbo911]

• Smith is out of contract but in theory has no right determine which club he gets to. Dogs can either accept that there's an adequate trade for him so the club trading for him doesn't have to risk the draft, or otherwise send him to the draft if they don't like the trade haul. Smith is not a free agent.
• But Geelong and Smith acting as if he's already a Geelong player. Such as nominating a specific club, buying a property in the area.
• The value of the draft pick in terms of expected future output of the player is not as good as Smith. The expectation of Smith's future output is roughly equivalent to a top-10 pick, considering the past evidence of the fact that there is a reasonable chance that any given top 10-20 pick never goes on to play meaningful AFL games. When compared to pick 17, whoever has Bailey Smith would be more likely to win more games over the next 10-15 years with Smith than with pick 17. Therefore, Geelong are acquiring a player more cheaply and easily than the rest of the league.
• Geelong are not inherently entitled to an out-of-contract player even though they nominate them in a trade, that's what free agency mechanisms (and its requirement that a player serve eight years before getting to that stage, or be delisted, offers).
• Geelong fans are turning their noses up at the fact that they might have to pay trade assets roughly equivalent to Smiths' future output as a player.
• They are doing this by saying "we'll just take him in the draft", suggesting that other clubs wouldn't
• And the reason they're suggesting that other clubs wouldn't, because Smith would discourage other clubs to draft him, which given he's required to go through a draft, is in theory draft tampering.

You state a top 10 on previous performance - which Smith’s best was a couple of years ago
Neglecting to state since there there has been off field issues & missing a year due to ACL injury which would lower the cost from a top 10 pick & can also impact future performance

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You state a top 10 on previous performance - which Smith’s best was a couple of years ago
Neglecting to state since there there has been off field issues & missing a year due to ACL injury which would lower the cost from a top 10 pick & can also impact future performance

Even with the decline in form, and with the ACL, the very fact that a player who has proven to establish themselves most recently as a best 22 footballer already has a leg up from the fact that a draftee is not likely going to start best 22 from day one and has to improve from that point on.

There are a multitude of examples of this.

You only have to go through the lists of historic pick 9's, pick 10's whatever in the draft to find a list of players who played fewer than 100 career games, most of which of less value in a game than even Smith's "bad form" games to finish his 2023.

It really isn't that hard:

 

[threenewpadlocks]

So you have the same problem with every out of contract player nominating which club they would like to be traded to?

I am sure Smith is allowed to buy property where ever he chooses, like any other person in the country. Some people buy property in cities they never plan to live in!

Again I ask you, how are Geelong acting like he is already a Geelong player?

Yes, I do, at least to the ones that have acted the way Smith has

 

[threenewpadlocks]

He nominated a club and he bought property.

Of which there was clearly no influence from the nature of his and his managements from Geelong.

We're being driven to believe that Geelong broke no rules in terms of tampering in how they're allowed to talk to players, the and the negotiations were nothing but Geelong offering terms of a contract, stating and intention to trade and confirming the fact that if they don't trade for him, they will have to let the draft play out.

We weren't born yesterday

You're surprised players out of contract will attract value under their worth? That's just how it goes.

If the draft was able top operate effectively and Smith didn't tamper to the fact that he should be willing to equally play at any club that drafts him, should he not want to be at the Dogs, given that he hasn't reached free agent rights, if the Dogs don't want to accept Geelong's trade offer, than the equilibrium point should be much closer to his actual value.

Because in theory there should be a much higher chance of any club drafting him before Geelong's first pick, because he's a good enough player to be worth that pick, so if purely on player value vs. draft pick value, Smith would never reach the very pick that Geelong are offering up in the trade. St Kilda would much rather Smith with a top 10 pick than the relativley large possibility of drafting another Hunter Clark or Nick Coffield with the equivalent pick.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Just because other clubs overpay for players doesn't mean we have to.

Of course not.

Overpaying is Cotton On's job, not the Cats..

 

[Turbo911]

Even with the decline in form, and with the ACL, the very fact that a player who has proven to establish themselves most recently as a best 22 footballer already has a leg up from the fact that a draftee is not likely going to start best 22 from day one and has to improve from that point on.

There are a multitude of examples of this.

You only have to go through the lists of historic pick 9's, pick 10's whatever in the draft to find a list of players who played fewer than 100 career games, most of which of less value in a game than even Smith's "bad form" games to finish his 2023.

It really isn't that hard:
View attachment 2137102

Geelong has done well with previous pick 17’s
Some names you will know
James kelly
Harry taylor
Daniel Menzel
Ollie Henry (via coll)

Can look to add Bailey Smith in the near future

17 is not a trash pick like that’s trying to sell

There was also Peter Street at 17 so there is also a history of 17 being good for the doggies lol

Really isn’t that hard ….