Confirmed Bailey Smith: 4-way trade: B. Smith (WB) & pick 45 to Geel / pick 38 to Carl / Macrae (WB) to StK / pick 17 & Kennedy (Carl) to WB

[MisterMarcus]

Richmond will have a million picks before the cats pick 17 it’s a no brainer to take him and he’s exactly what they need.

So Richmond waste a top pick on a player who doesn't want to be there, and the Doggies get literally nothing.

Only team who doesn't lose out in that scenario is Geelong.

 

[Bald]

Apart from the fact Kelly was coming off a career-best season, and Smith is at arguably his lowest point (mediocre 2023 and missed all of 2024), yeah they're exactly the same.

Mediocre 2023? He averaged:

24 disposals
3.5 clearances
3.5 tackles
3.5 inside 50s

For context, Max Holmes who won your best and fairest averaged:

24 disposals
3.3 clerances
3 tackles
4 inside 50s

It was down on his previous form but let's not rewrite history and pretend he wasn't still at a high level in 2023..

 

[adogsfan5]

Only team who doesn't lose out in that scenario is Geelong.

You don’t get the player you want, plus a fractured relationship with player manager and a rival club. Let’s stop pretending Geelong can just wipe their hands clean here.

 

[adogsfan5]

Cats supporters want people to just forget that trade...

The Kelly trade was:

• Geelong: Kelly, Pick 52, F3
• WC: Pick 14, Pick 24, Pick 37 and F1

This equated Kelly's value at Pick 2

The only significant difference between Kelly and Smith is that Smith is coming off the year out with an ACL.
Both uncontracted.
Both with a six-year deal waiting at their new club.
Smith is 23. Kelly was 26, but definitely had another 6 years left at the top level, particularly as he was a late starter.

It is crazy that Geelong think pick 17 alone is a 'fair deal'.

Kelly’s form when getting traded was better than Smiths. Finished second in the bnf.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Kelly’s form when getting traded was better than Smiths. Finished second in the bnf.

And AA and 5th in the Brownlow.

And Geelong and Kelly's relationship was not fractured like BS and the Dogs is. And we don't/didn't have Bevo as coach who seems to have a toxic relationship with a few of his players, inc. BS.

And Geelong was willing to offer Kelly and serious contract, unlike the Dogs pretend 2 year deal tabled for BS.

Plus WCE had overlooked Kelly for about 5 years, until we picked him up and made hi a star.

Not comparable trades at all.

 

[joe444]

Kelly’s form when getting traded was better than Smiths. Finished second in the bnf.

And Geelong traded with his club of choice despite offers elsewhere, but I'm not sure what point is being made by the comparison anyway.

The fact that there isn't even the hint of a rumour about clubs with a pick higher than Geelong even making vague contact with the Dogs about Smith should surely be enough of a reality check, but good luck to em. Gotta haggle.

 

[Bald]

And Geelong traded with his club of choice despite offers elsewhere, but I'm not sure what point is being made by the comparison anyway.

The fact that there isn't even the hint of a rumour about clubs with a pick higher than Geelong even making vague contact with the Dogs about Smith should surely be enough of a reality check, but good luck to em. Gotta haggle.

Genuinely curious, if it comes to the night and the team with a pick before yours says "We are going to take Bailey Smith, but we're open to trading our pick for yours and your future first, what say you?" what then?

It's all good and well to say teams won't draft him, but they don't have to, to take advantage of the situation.

 

[MacStradbroke]

Mediocre 2023? He averaged:

24 disposals
3.5 clearances
3.5 tackles
3.5 inside 50s

For context, Max Holmes who won your best and fairest averaged:

24 disposals
3.3 clerances
3 tackles
4 inside 50s

It was down on his previous form but let's not rewrite history and pretend he wasn't still at a high level in 2023..

Some serious cherry picking of stats here.

 

[Superstar swan]

No chance it goes to the draft

17 and f2 gets it done

 

[joe444]

Genuinely curious, if it comes to the night and the team with a pick before yours says "We are going to take Bailey Smith, but we're open to trading our pick for yours and your future first, what say you?" what then?

It's all good and well to say teams won't draft him, but they don't have to, to take advantage of the situation.

No, obviously. A future second, maybe. It's a hell of a risk for a club to take on a player they don't necessarily want.

I think in all these discussions we overlook the fact that it's genuinely in clubs' interests to not develop a reputation as screwing around with the careers and personal lives of their players. And no p8767896ing off player managers.

But I try to remain as clear eyed about this as possible. Pick 17 on its own seems a bit skinny. But there has to be something in the consensus that he goes to the PSD, he will get to Geelong.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Genuinely curious, if it comes to the night and the team with a pick before yours says "We are going to take Bailey Smith, but we're open to trading our pick for yours and your future first, what say you?" what then?

It's all good and well to say teams won't draft him, but they don't have to, to take advantage of the situation.

We ask them why they're spending a precious Top 10-15 pick in a supposedly great draft, on a player who openly does not want to be at their club.

 

[iameviljez]

This isnt true at all

With Bailey Smiths level of service he would be a restricted free agent where Bulldogs could match Geelongs salary offer... which they would... which means Bailey Smith would either play AFL for the Western Bulldogs or stack groceries at Aldi

RFA doesn't exist in other sports, I think Biggy_Boy is referring to a situation where RFA is not a thing.

 

[Bald]

Some serious cherry picking of stats here.

Not really? I can push it further.

Max Holmes only has a significant advantage over Bailey in meters gained and marks.

If that's all it takes to differentiate between the best player at your club and a mediocre season then that's interesting to say the least.

 

[iameviljez]

But there has to be something in the consensus that he goes to the PSD, he will get to Geelong.

Not if he goes via the PSD he won't, because the PSD picks are junk. ND only

 

[Bald]

We ask them why they're spending a precious Top 10-15 pick in a supposedly great draft, on a player who openly does not want to be at their club.

Because we really like what Bailey brings and we'll back in our system, given we're taking him in the first round we'll have 3 years to do it and if it clearly isn't working, you can offer us a trade at the end of next year for a contracted Bailey Smith.

There, easy.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

RFA doesn't exist in other sports, I think Biggy_Boy is referring to a situation where RFA is not a thing.

How many sports operate with a draft in the world? Like 3?

Comparisons with soccer etc are way off base.

 

[joe444]

Genuinely curious, if it comes to the night and the team with a pick before yours says "We are going to take Bailey Smith, but we're open to trading our pick for yours and your future first, what say you?" what then?

It's all good and well to say teams won't draft him, but they don't have to, to take advantage of the situation.

And btw, you can't swap picks in the PSD, which is where Smith would go.

 

[iameviljez]

How many sports operate with a draft in the world? Like 3?

Comparisons with soccer etc are way off base.

As a genuine question - what happens to out of contract players in the NFL, NHL and NBA?

 

[Bald]

And btw, you can't swap picks in the PSD, which is where Smith would go.

No he wouldn't, because we have a pick before Geelong in the PSD.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Because we really like what Bailey brings and we'll back in our system, given we're taking him in the first round we'll have 3 years to do it and if it clearly isn't working, you can offer us a trade at the end of next year for a contracted Bailey Smith.

There, easy.

If it didn't work out, his value would tank further so the other team would end up getting less than they paid for him. So it would seem very silly to me.

And I don't understand why Dogs fans are desperately trying to talk up this scenario. If it happens, instead of getting what you see as 80c in the dollar, you get nothing.

 

[branedotorg]

surely this is going to arbitration

 

[Milanista28]

Cats out 17+38+57+F2nd
Dogs out Smith+48
Dons out 28+31

Cats in Smith+31
Dogs in 17+28
Dons in 38+48+57+F2nd

Any teams sad here?

 

[joe444]

No he wouldn't, because we have a pick before Geelong in the PSD.

Do I really have to explain to you why that can't happen?

The AFL will step in straight away; the AFLPA are on record about what they'd do in such a situation (e.g. they wouldn't give a stuff if they bankrupted the club in court).

There's a reason why "Send Him to the Preseason Draft" is essentially a light-hearted meme.

 

[Bald]

If it didn't work out, his value would tank further so the other team would end up getting less than they paid for him. So it would seem very silly to me.

And I don't understand why Dogs fans are desperately trying to talk up this scenario. If it happens, instead of getting what you see as 80c in the dollar, you get nothing.

I'm not talking up the scenario. I'm providing a bit of context around what the scenario looks like. It's not just a matter of Bailey going to the draft and Geelong drafting him and everything is fine. There's every chance a club with pick 16 takes full advantage of Geelong and tests whether you really want him or not.

You can't say that Geelong will do what's best for Geelong (with regards to giving up unders for him because you can get him in the national draft anyway) and not expect other clubs to do what is best for themselves.

 

[Bald]

Do I really have to explain to you why that can't happen?

The AFL will step in straight away; the AFLPA are on record about what they'd do in such a situation (e.g. they wouldn't give a stuff if they bankrupted the club in court).

There's a reason why "Send Him to the Preseason Draft" is essentially a light-hearted meme.

I'm sorry, what can't happen?