Bluemour Discussion Thread XVI - Facts Not Welcome

[Coops93]

Martin could benefit greatly from a Pre season under Andrew Russell and a fresh start away from that unmitigated disaster that is GCFC.

He also seems to me to be a player who'd be better in a better team. His best assets are on the outside but at the Suns he's needed on the inside, which he can do quite well, though it's probably not where he's most effective.

If we are after him I wonder what role we're considering for him?

 

[Blue__Balls]

He also seems to me to be a player who'd be better in a better team. His best assets are on the outside but at the Suns he's needed on the inside, which he can do quite well, though it's probably not where he's most effective.

If we are after him I wonder what role we're considering for him?

There's the kicker - if we're into him now, that's based on availability, talent and cost. No idea how the new coach will use him, and that's where the decision lies.

Makes him a good target for SOS, as he can fill a number of roles depending on what else we get.

As far as price - I reckon there will be a few other deals done by both clubs before a potential Martin to Carlton trade.

Carlton:
2019 Picks: 14, 40, 50, 70
Likely 2020 picks: 8, 26, 44, 62

Gold Coast:
2019 Picks: 1, 12, 48
Likely 2020 Picks: 2, 20, 38, 56

There's a big gap for both clubs in the second round this year, which is where you'd be looking for sweetening or balancing pick swaps of some value.

Pick 14 by itself is probably a reasonable starting point, but I'd think we'd want a later second round pick back for this draft (30-36 range) so that we're not taking blokes with Picks 70+ just to meet the minimum requirements.

Our future first is too high, and I reckon GC probably want some more immediate value back given their limited draft assets this year.

I'd love to see us get it done for our future second plus a ready-to-go player, as that may suit both clubs. I know they don't hold a heap of value, but guys like Macreadie or Kerr could be attractive prospects for the Suns. Future pick ~26 plus Macreadie or Kerr?

 

[Coops93]

There's the kicker - if we're into him now, that's based on availability, talent and cost. No idea how the new coach will use him, and that's where the decision lies.

Makes him a good target for SOS, as he can fill a number of roles depending on what else we get.

As far as price - I reckon there will be a few other deals done by both clubs before a potential Martin to Carlton trade.

Carlton:
2019 Picks: 14, 40, 50, 70
Likely 2020 picks: 8, 26, 44, 62

Gold Coast:
2019 Picks: 1, 12, 48
Likely 2020 Picks: 2, 20, 38, 56

There's a big gap for both clubs in the second round this year, which is where you'd be looking for sweetening or balancing pick swaps of some value.

Pick 14 by itself is probably a reasonable starting point, but I'd think we'd want a later second round pick back for this draft (30-36 range) so that we're not taking blokes with Picks 70+ just to meet the minimum requirements.

Our future first is too high, and I reckon GC probably want some more immediate value back given their limited draft assets this year.

I'd love to see us get it done for our future second plus a ready-to-go player, as that may suit both clubs. I know they don't hold a heap of value, but guys like Macreadie or Kerr could be attractive prospects for the Suns. Future pick ~26 plus Macreadie or Kerr?

Weren't they somewhat interested in Casboult last year or the year before? Maybe he'd have a role to play in this trade.

Maybe 14 & 40 for Martin and Brodie? We might be able to add Casboult to that mix as well.

Outside of players, I think a fair trade might be:

14 & 40
for
Martin and ~20-25 this year. Given they don't have a 20-25 this trade might get a bit sticky. That's where I think we might need a player back worth around a pick in the 20s.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Weren't they somewhat interested in Casboult last year or the year before? Maybe he'd have a role to play in this trade.

Maybe 14 & 40 for Martin and Brodie? We might be able to add Casboult to that mix as well.

Outside of players, I think a fair trade might be:

14 & 40
for
Martin and ~20-25 this year. Given they don't have a 20-25 this trade might get a bit sticky. That's where I think we might need a player back worth around a pick in the 20s.

Cas is out of contract and a free agent - if he's happy to go he won't be part of a trade.

Was perusing the GC list for possible sweeteners, and the one that popped out (that I wouldn't have given much thought to most days) was Tom Nicholls.

14 for Martin and Nicholls. We get the classy HFF/HBF/part time mid, as well as a 27yo ruckman. He's not a world beater, but he's ready to go and is getting reasonable numbers in the NEAFL this season. Could cut both Phillips and Lobbe, and go into 2020 with Kreuzer > Nicholls > TDK with guys like Jones, McKay, Casboult as crisis options.

 

[Coops93]

Cas is out of contract and a free agent - if he's happy to go he won't be part of a trade.

Was perusing the GC list for possible sweeteners, and the one that popped out (that I wouldn't have given much thought to most days) was Tom Nicholls.

14 for Martin and Nicholls. We get the classy HFF/HBF/part time mid, as well as a 27yo ruckman. He's not a world beater, but he's ready to go and is getting reasonable numbers in the NEAFL this season. Could cut both Phillips and Lobbe, and go into 2020 with Kreuzer > Nicholls > TDK with guys like Jones, McKay, Casboult as crisis options.

No, do not want Nicholls. Please no. I wanted him cut from the Suns list and was genuinely surprised to see he was still part of the team when they posted some video a little while ago and he was part of it. I'd rather Casboult play fulltime ruck ahead of him tbh.

 

[rp84]

This year sure. Having an off year. Plenty of players have off years, even the good ones. 79 goals, 49 behinds for his career. Hardly unreliable. 60% efficiency this year, sure, 71% for his career. Plus 4 clearances a game this year, 6 tackles a game this year, including 4 tackles inside 50 which is what we are looking for, forward 50 pressure. Averages 4 score involvements a game for his career. Hardly having a terrible year. Its not as bad as some are making out. I think he is being undersold personally. Jack Martin would be a good get for us. especially if he's interested as rumoured.

Shhhh...he is playing terribly. Bottom 50 player of the league...

 

[Andypooh23]

Cas is out of contract and a free agent - if he's happy to go he won't be part of a trade.

Was perusing the GC list for possible sweeteners, and the one that popped out (that I wouldn't have given much thought to most days) was Tom Nicholls.

14 for Martin and Nicholls. We get the classy HFF/HBF/part time mid, as well as a 27yo ruckman. He's not a world beater, but he's ready to go and is getting reasonable numbers in the NEAFL this season. Could cut both Phillips and Lobbe, and go into 2020 with Kreuzer > Nicholls > TDK with guys like Jones, McKay, Casboult as crisis options.

Nicholls is also a Free Agent.

 

[Blue__Balls]

No, do not want Nicholls. Please no. I wanted him cut from the Suns list and was genuinely surprised to see he was still part of the team when they posted some video a little while ago and he was part of it. I'd rather Casboult play fulltime ruck ahead of him tbh.

Not a sexy pick at all, but he's at an age now where opportunity could see something workable. Would prefer one of the younger guys, for sure, 23-25yo would be the idea range.

Nicholls is also a Free Agent.

Fair call - didn't actually look at his contract status, but unsurprising in hindsight.

 

[Blue Pulse]

How much of a factor will a new coach to our club play, in enticing players or scaring off players?

if Sydney lose Longmire, I can't see a new coach letting Papley walk, unless what is coming back is too good to refuse.

 

[Coops93]

Shhhh...he is playing terribly. Bottom 50 player of the league...

Has some dodgy shoulders as well

 

[rp84]

Has some dodgy shoulders as well

Pretty sure plenty of off field issues..we are pretty much doing GC a massive favour.

 

[Matt Clape]

How much of a factor will a new coach to our club play, in enticing players or scaring off players?

if Sydney lose Longmire, I can't see a new coach letting Papley walk, unless what is coming back is too good to refuse.

In the same way, if Longmire goes, the Swans may struggle to convince Papley to stay. Contract or no contract, once players make the signal they want out it’s hard to keep hold of them.

 

[rp84]

Not a sexy pick at all, but he's at an age now where opportunity could see something workable. Would prefer one of the younger guys, for sure, 23-25yo would be the idea range.



Fair call - didn't actually look at his contract status, but unsurprising in hindsight.

27 is the perfect age for our backup ruck. Its just that nicholls is shit.

 

[Coops93]

The club has offered Ross Lyon a God father offer, which he has knocked back at this stage. Lyon would prefer to stay in Perth.

#Bluemour

I too would prefer Lyon stay in Perth.

 

[Bostonian]

So we've made a huge offer to Lyon.

Bolton's been gone for two weeks, we formed a committee to start a detailed search for a new coach and already the best they've come up with is "let's give Lyon a heap of money" as plan A.

How can such a rushed decision have been made already?

 

[slashin_velvet]

The club has offered Ross Lyon a God father offer, which he has knocked back at this stage. Lyon would prefer to stay in Perth.

#Bluemour

The bad news is that we offered it to Ross in the first place......
The good news is he knocked it back....
The best news is that if true, Brad Scott isnt a done deal - thank the heavens

 

[CFC18]

He also seems to me to be a player who'd be better in a better team. His best assets are on the outside but at the Suns he's needed on the inside, which he can do quite well, though it's probably not where he's most effective.

Part of our issue I feel is, are we a club that can promote as being able to get the best out of players, elevate their game and/or prolong their careers. While it might be easy to explain away the likes of Kerridge, Lamb, Mullet, Lang, Fasolo, Pickett, Garlett as stop gaps, not having the talent and so forth we've ultimately been a revolving door for the age group we will be targeting.

We can throw out names like Greenwood, Ellis-Yolmen, Elliot etc. as potential targets but the scrapheap pile is there for all to see - the challenge may not be in selling our future potential as a club, but selling ourselves as the best long term fit for these players. Likewise with Martin, which players can we point to and say their game elevated as a result of coming to us. I can think of Jones.

 

[Juddrockz]

Possibly why SOS was seen with Lyon having lunch and then SOS seen heading west?
Time will tell.

 

[CFC18]

So we've made a huge offer to Lyon.

Bolton's been gone for two weeks, we formed a committee to start a detailed search for a new coach and already the best they've come up with is "let's give Lyon a heap of money" as plan A.

How can such a rushed decision have been made already?

When logic suggests a rumour doesn't make sense...

We would sound out potential interest before putting an offer on the table.

 

[Blue Pulse]

So have we just gone back to a messiah coming or is Lyon really the best option, I really don't care who he is mates with but, surely, we need what is best for the club and the development of these players. If he is it, great, but, he was either an option for next season already, or they have decided, in 2 weeks, that Ross is the way going forward?

 

[Coops93]

Part of our issue I feel is, are we a club that can promote as being able to get the best out of players, elevate their game and/or prolong their careers. While it might be easy to explain away the likes of Kerridge, Lamb, Mullet, Lang, Fasolo, Pickett, Garlett as stop gaps, not having the talent and so forth we've ultimately been a revolving door for the age group we will be targeting.

We can throw out names like Greenwood, Ellis-Yolmen, Elliot etc. as potential targets but the scrapheap pile is there for all to see - the challenge may not be in selling our future potential as a club, but selling ourselves as the best long term fit for these players. Likewise with Martin, which players can we point to and say their game elevated as a result of coming to us. I can think of Jones.

Well yes they are easy to explain away. Most of them were never really high potential guys to begin with and very few of them were brought in with the expectation they'd step up. Of them I'd say only Lang and Pickett were seen as potentially taking a step, maybe Lamb as well.

The difference between the other guys we've brought in and Martin is that Martin is already a B grade player most of the time with real A grade potential. The reason I think he can step up with us is he won't need to play an inside contested role as much as he does at the Suns, so he'll be able to express his talent more than he's currently able to.

 

[Soapy V]

Lyon has impressed me with what he has done with Freo over the last 2 years. Given where our list is at he might well be the best coach for our young group.

 

[Coops93]

Lyon has impressed me with what he has done with Freo over the last 2 years. Given where our list is at he might well be the best coach for our young group.

This is where I wonder why he would leave. He's gone through the tough, down period and has put in the hard work. Now they're just starting to get some reward for all that. Why would you go through all that only to leave for another grind ?

 

[Blue__Balls]

So have we just gone back to a messiah coming or is Lyon really the best option, I really don't care who he is mates with but, surely, we need what is best for the club and the development of these players. If he is it, great, but, he was either an option for next season already, or they have decided, in 2 weeks, that Ross is the way going forward?

Could be working down the list.

Option 1 - established senior coaches.
Clarkson, Lyon, Longmire, Scott (kinda)

Option 2 - second chance draw.
Ratten, Voss, Sanderson

Option 3 - promising assistants.
Teague, Burns, whoever else I can't recall.

Don't think we make offers to everyone on the list, but the selection panel might see those "tiers" as the best way to prioritise discussions. Review and sound out the established coaches first, if the ones we think would be suitable aren't amenable, move to the next tier and do the same. The further down the list you go the more work needs to go into the process, as you're extrapolating out on how someone will do in a role they're less experienced, or completely inexperienced in.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

At least this time round we have a number of good coaching options to pursue.