Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[gbatman]

Dow will be a lot better player at St Kilda if Lyon happens to rate him. Same for Fisher at North. The moment the coach doesn't rate you as a player you know it and you're done. Your confidence is cooked, opportunity is limited at best.
Happens all the time at all levels. Happens in the AFL a lot. We've landed players like Scotland, Hewett, Newman etc because their former coach rated them lowly. Came to us where we rated them, gave them more than enough opportunities and turned them into good players.

Chances we get a hammering for letting them go next yeah are fairly good but it doesn't matter as long as what we come away with takes us forward. We get what we need and that makes us better, that is what genuinely matters to us.

If losing some AFL quality senior players gets us there that's fine.

Big question is who are we getting. We all want to see us take the next step. Are we getting some quality senior players in or are we hitting the Draft?

We know what we will get with dealing with SOS, he'll get Dow cheap. Fisher I have no idea what North will offer but it's probably in the 3rd round.

My gut says we're probably going to go to the draft again the best we can. No point just trading for players if they aren't the ones we want.

Think next year might be an aggressive list management year. Think we might get busy signing mature talent then, perhaps what we need isn't quite there this year.

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Hopefully we get some whispers out of tonight’s event

 

[gab213]

Harsh but very fair.
That’s the situation in a nutshell.
Personally, I think it’s a mistake.

Unfortunately, these are the sort of decisions that good clubs need to make in pursuit of the ultimate prize. These are not always popular with all parts of the supporter base at the time. I remember at the time we got Greg Williams in we lost a really popular club man in Minton-Connell. A lot of us were disappointed to lose him but ultimately bringing Williams in was 100% the right move.

There will be a few more of these type of situatioins arise as we improve the list and a couple of more fan favourites eventually transition out of the team.

Good luck to Dow, wherever he ends up but this is all part of becoming a stronger club.

 

[Arr0w]

But this is the key point - he hasn’t done everything right. He hasn’t solidified a position in our best 22, is not strong defensively and doesn’t have a second position.
Unfortunately - IMO - he is unlikely to resolve those last two issues.

He will have the same struggles trying to cement himself at the Saints

And, we know how much more Ross wants a defensive style

 

[thylacine60]

Just getting in early, do we see a need for an "I Told You So" thread? For the grieving dowagers to use next season, every time he gets a touch.

 

[Arr0w]

Just getting in early, do we see a need for an "I Told You So" thread? For the grieving dowagers to use next season.

This should do it

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Unless we want to use the Voss thread, that was fun

 

[4thchicken]

The discussion is based on views that see Dow as a better option than Hewett /Docherty/Kennedy as midfield on ball rotations. Also Dow is younger than any of these players and therefore has time to improve further - a perception that given arguments made regarding his current level of performance already surpassing those three - basically the Club is throwing a very good player with points of difference away - for nothing.

The view sort of segues into another view expressed on here and that is that the midfield in particular lacks leg speed which as the argument goes, is the main reason Carlton can't run with faster teams who have embraced leg speed as the #1 input into transitional play effectiveness.

The argument is expanded by suggesting that the coaching and selection process could easily accommodate Dow even keeping all of Cripps/Walsh/Cerra and two of Hewett/Docherty/Kennedy in the line up by shifting Walsh to a wing rotation - because Walsh is an endurance runner and can replace Hollands or Cottrell - so Carlton doesn't lose any outside run and or if not that Docherty should be played as a defender where he has AA credentials - and is arguably a better option than Cincotta/Newman or Boyd or Marchbank.

More extreme arguments point to games given to players in the forward mix that haven't performed as well as Dow as pointing to a lack of Dow awareness in the MC.

Opposing views point to certain deficiencies in DOw's defensive capabilities and lack of two way running - suggesting that in fact Dow doesn't really improve the run of the midfield given players are expected to run both ways and that if Dow was a potential high impact player lie a Degooey or Dangerfield he would have shown this predisposition and capability by now- opposing this is teh argument that Dow has not been given much opportunity to demonstrate his forward craft ability.

So depending on one's view on the Carlton midfield as favoured by the coaches and or one's view on how Carlton needs to be restructured to play like Collingwood plays or one's view on Dow V other on ball alternatives or one's view on where players are best fit into the team for offer all balance- Dow seems to be the missing link in the coach and MC thinking - or surplus to needs.

I would summarise the Dow debate on here as a talisman for Voss and his coaching /game plan and player selection ability.

No Dow means Voss is never going to achieve the ultimate success because it speaks not only to No Dow but also his inability to understand how games are won these days against better teams with one poster in particular referencing 'the modern game' - where teams invest primarily in fast runners able to go back and forth and run through and around opposition who all have slower players.

Debates like this will never end until a coach wins a flag playing with a game style that he has built a team around- and will be ongoing whenever one team who does win a flag and plays with a different game style ( and by game style I mean a different set of player types and capabilities at their disposal).

Other component of consideration is list profile (age/injury history) - Cripps/Hewett/kennedy arent young are have all shown that they can struggle with injury/whilst coming back from injury - having depth that has potential to take over with continued development is highly valuable.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Dow probably would have stayed if offered longer term deal but feels he is not rated. SOS has made it clear for a while they want him. I have no idea the money as I never ask and I have never heard a player discuss it. He has some great mates at club especially Walsh who he’s in Japan with. I want him to stay but it’s NOT happening. He’s gone and it was decided weeks ago. The deal with Saints is done it’s just about how

As I have said before SOS keeps in close contact with players he drafted and rates Dow highly still.

I don’t know what it will take to get it done but it won’t be much and I don’t see any hassles. A few Blues people wanted a pick swap to go slightly higher in draft but nothing confirmed

My source for this couldn’t be more impeccable

I'll be stunned if we come away with a third rounder.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Probably a future 3rd (#48)* rounder for Dow would be a fair trade outcome, considering the circumstances of all parties…

 

[kingkingston]

Dow will be a lot better player at St Kilda if Lyon happens to rate him. Same for Fisher at North. The moment the coach doesn't rate you as a player you know it and you're done. Your confidence is cooked, opportunity is limited at best.
Happens all the time at all levels. Happens in the AFL a lot. We've landed players like Scotland, Hewett, Newman etc because their former coach rated them lowly. Came to us where we rated them, gave them more than enough opportunities and turned them into good players.

Chances we get a hammering for letting them go next yeah are fairly good but it doesn't matter as long as what we come away with takes us forward. We get what we need and that makes us better, that is what genuinely matters to us.

If losing some AFL quality senior players gets us there that's fine.

Big question is who are we getting. We all want to see us take the next step. Are we getting some quality senior players in or are we hitting the Draft?

We know what we will get with dealing with SOS, he'll get Dow cheap. Fisher I have no idea what North will offer but it's probably in the 3rd round.

My gut says we're probably going to go to the draft again the best we can. No point just trading for players if they aren't the ones we want.

Think next year might be an aggressive list management year. Think we might get busy signing mature talent then, perhaps what we need isn't quite there this year.

Hurts when you have depth at the position you play. Sometimes you have 5 players who can play the same position but only 3 can be selected.

 

[SOS Rules]

Good luck to Paddy and Fish except when they play us. We're not going to be big players in the trade period I would have thought with Elijah Hollands being our main piece of business. Our focus will be on how we improve our list via the draft. We have a few areas we need to address. Let's hope whoever we draft, are competitors at heart and can add to competition for spots. Our main improvement next year will come from within. Here's to an injury free pre season.

 

[Benaly28]

Good luck to Paddy and Fish except when they play us. We're not going to be big players in the trade period I would have thought with Elijah Hollands being our main piece of business. Our focus will be on how we improve our list via the draft. We have a few areas we need to address. Let's hope whoever we draft, are competitors at heart and can add to competition for spots. Our main improvement next year will come from within. Here's to an injury free pre season.

Our best ‘recruit’ next year will be Z.Williams.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WyntersGame_]

Best Wishes to Paddy & Fish

Fish - Would have thought he'd push for a finals playing team if he was looking to leave but I believe a move is the best option for him. I loved what he did for the first 2-3 years at the club. Unfortunately he is just to light weight for the midfield and that's where he see's himself, so if he can get midfield minutes elsewhere, good luck to him.

Paddy - I've said it in previous discussions, I've really loved what he's done to improve himself this year and I really thought long term he could be a great player for the club instead of the wasted talent I thought he was at the start of the year. Best of luck to him.

If we find someone in any of the drafts with some of his positive traits I won't be too upset he's moved on because it's best for him as he doesn't appear to have the backing of the coaches. I think he thrives next year.

I just hope we haven't put all out hopes into the existing midfield we have and left ourself short. Some of the starters are approaching 30 and play a bruising style which means as they get older they are more susceptible to injuries. We need depth to cover this. I also feel the preferred mix got found out last year in our poor run of form. I think we need someone with that side step to open things up and speed would help too.

Happy to be proven wrong next year obviously

 

[TENACIOUS]

Unfortunately, these are the sort of decisions that good clubs need to make in pursuit of the ultimate prize.

Wait until 2025/26/27

AFL Out of Contract Players in 2025

List of AFL players coming out of contract at the end of 2025.

www.footywire.com

 

[Dramoth]

Paddy has played under 3 coaches at Carlton, Bolton, Teague and Voss and hasn’t been able to consolidate a spot,

In 2018, he played 20 of a possible 22 games and in 2019, played 19 games under Bolton/Teague. In 2020, he played 3 under Teague and in 21, 17 under Teague. In 22 and 23, he played 14 games under Voss.

For most of that time, his midfield/stoppages coach was Barker. He was rated in his first 2 years and then Teague came in and he fell off a cliff?

He hasn't had any significant injuries over the 6 years with us.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

In 2018, he played 20 of a possible 22 games and in 2019, played 19 games under Bolton/Teague. In 2020, he played 3 under Teague and in 21, 17 under Teague. In 22 and 23, he played 14 games under Voss.

For most of that time, his midfield/stoppages coach was Barker. He was rated in his first 2 years and then Teague came in and he fell off a cliff?

He hasn't had any significant injuries over the 6 years with us.

It's a good point. My main issue with Dow was how they left him in the 2s even when an opportunity opened up in the team and no matter how good his form was. It is demoralising for him and the other players.

I think he'll be decent at St Kilda but playing Ross Lyon style would not immediately seem the perfect fit to me.

We haven't exactly looked after his trade value so we'll be lucky to get a 3rd rounder I would imagine.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Fisher with 2 years to run on his contract and with a 4 year contract at North has to be worth more than the pick 40ish we're being offered.

I'd say a pick in the 20s or just tell North we'll keep him for another year and they can try again next off-season. I'd be more than happy if we keep him.

Whatever we get for Dow should be ontraded to GC for BOO (brother of Ollie).

 

[95blues]

This should do it

Prediction - Bookmarked

Enjoy reading a "prediction" post , whether it is good, bad or ugly. So post your predictions, or that of other posters, which will hopefully create an interesting time-capsule for years to come, of Carlton related opinion. Predictions can be as varied, players, ladder position, coaches...

www.bigfooty.com

Unless we want to use the Voss thread, that was fun

Nah. Combine it with the SPS regret thread.

 

[lukep_86]

Heard on SEN earlier that a future 4th will get the Dow deal done. I might be looking at it through Blue coloured glasses and it's hard to quantify but surely he's worth at least a third, especially considering his form late this season.

 

[myblueroan]

Heard on SEN earlier that a future 4th will get the Dow deal done. I might be looking at it through Blue coloured glasses and it's hard to quantify but surely he's worth at least a third, especially considering his form late this season.

What a crying shame if that's the case. Find a way to keep him for depth if possible.

 

[Soapy V]

Some feedback from last night. Have a couple of targets for trade but not what I would call big names. More about needs

Focus is on trying to get 2-3 "Good"picks in the draft via upgrades. Add a couple of young very talented kids would be awesome

List is mainly settled and we are in a great space List Balance and Salary Cap wise. We are now in a position where we should be in contention for many years to come

Many club ínsiders believe our List still has a lot of improvement to come

 

[DollarsandSense]

Some feedback from last night. Have a couple of targets for trade but not what I would call big names. More about needs

Focus is on trying to get 2-3 "Good"picks in the draft via upgrades. Add a couple of young very talented kids would be awesome

List is mainly settled and we are in a great space List Balance and Salary Cap wise. We are now in a position where we should be in contention for many years to come

Many club ínsiders believe our List still has a lot of improvement to come

Great work Soap (so glad you are back) Keen to hear more about who the 'needs' focus are....

Love the second bolded sentence...

 

[RPCB]

SOS playing hard ball over Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

is the most SOS list management decision he has ever made.

 

[macky99]

Some feedback from last night. Have a couple of targets for trade but not what I would call big names. More about needs

Focus is on trying to get 2-3 "Good"picks in the draft via upgrades. Add a couple of young very talented kids would be awesome

List is mainly settled and we are in a great space List Balance and Salary Cap wise. We are now in a position where we should be in contention for many years to come

Many club ínsiders believe our List still has a lot of improvement to come

Agree with the strategy of improving our draft position in this draft, there seems to be a fair gap in the 1st 10-12 in this draft, but there will be a cost to make that happen eg at least next year's F1st on the table.

 

[Soapy V]

Agree with the strategy of improving our draft position in this draft, there seems to be a fair gap in the 1st 10-12 in this draft, but there will be a cost to make that happen eg at least next year's F1st on the table.

I don't know for sure but got feeling it's on the table. Some people feel the Campo boys (especially one of them) could be Top 10 next year