Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[DangerousD]

Just on Collingwood.

Yes they were aggressive during the 2022 trade period and that helped them win the 2023 cup.

The year before they only brought in Lipinski on the cheap and NDaicos at the draft and nothing else of note if I remember correctly. So a year of the draft and a low collateral trade of Lipinski allowed they to go hard at trade time the following year.

Yes and in 2022 we only brought in Acres, whilst also trading out depth player Setterfield, last year we traded out two depth players and brought in Hollands and this year it seems we are hitting the draft again, that will be three years in a row

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Every team above us could present a similar run down of who’s returning from injury and who can improve to help them climb the ladder.

Collingwood were aggressive prior to winning the flag and continue to to be aggressive to push for another.

Hawks were aggressive last year and are aggressive again.

Freo are targeting senior players this year

Geelong are being aggressive again

Port have a commitment from Lukoscious

But all we are hanging our hat on is internal improvement and Jack and Doc coming back,

nope.

We had 2 of our best three midfielders either missing or wounded most of the year.

And the competition's best forward on one leg for most of the season too.

throw in the league's best emerging ruckman...getting butchered by (and long term injured) Xerri?

Walsh, Cerra, Curnow and TDK - the other teams?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I am very sceptical of Austin tbh, 1 pick in the top 25 across the last 4 years is down to him not being aggressive enough.

I find our LM strategy a bit confusing, last year we kept Martin, Cuners, Marchbank, traded two depth players, brought in Hollands and traded back our 1st pick, to me, that’s not hitting the draft and it wasn’t being aggressive at the trade table.

This year we have cut the injured players and all the chat is we are hitting the draft, which makes it seem like we overestimated the quality of the list last year.

At the end of the draft period if all we have done is added a 32 depth defender and draft picks, that’s a terrible outcome, if the club doesn’t think I we are in a position to win the GF next year and we need to load up on young talent, then fine, but if that’s the case, why not offer up more players for picks.

I hope I get exposed for worrying about nothing but if Collingwood off a premiership last year can target Schultz, sign a free agent to a huge deal and chase Houston, yet we can’t do anything like that, then we are in a bad position.

I agree that Austin has been underwhelming. I think we overpaid on Saad, and Cerra wasn't required, especially with Hewett brought in.

The decisions this year might be the correct ones, but possibly they are being made to correct the errors of previous years.

Time will tell.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Every team above us could present a similar run down of who’s returning from injury and who can improve to help them climb the ladder.

Collingwood were aggressive prior to winning the flag and continue to to be aggressive to push for another.

Hawks were aggressive last year and are aggressive again.

Freo are targeting senior players this year

Geelong are being aggressive again

Port have a commitment from Lukoscious

But all we are hanging our hat on is internal improvement and Jack and Doc coming back,

Yeah, cause that's exactly what I said

Go back and read what I wrote...and this time, read it properly please

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Yes and in 2022 we only brought in Acres, whilst also trading out depth player Setterfield, last year we traded out two depth players and brought in Hollands and this year it seems we are hitting the draft again, that will be three years in a row

I reckon it’s definitely a ‘watch this space’ over the next week and a half.
Austin has left a lot open, imo could be a pretty active trade period.
(Needs to be imo)

 

[DangerousD]

Could well be for 2025 but that’s not to say that in 2026 we don’t have a ton of cap space to nab a few players of need. We also might be at the lower end of the cap and have a plan for the next few years and paying a lot of our big time players in 2025 really could set us up for a big future.

We were 2nd on the ladder up until the final couple of rounds and we were injury ravished for most of the season as I know you’ll be aware. Big chance we improve next year just based off that.

I think the draft is the best avenue for us this off season but maybe I’m in the minority. It’s now time to rejuvenate our list a little a couple of years before Tasmania take a chunk of early picks.

There will be a plan, no doubt but saying we can’t afford anyone maybe a little short sighted. If we win a premiership next year and all we really added this off season is 4 quality draftees, then we look like geniuses

Hitting the draft with 12 and 13 is fine, if we find another 1-2 players like Acres or Holands who are AFL standard, the hitting the draft angle sounds great but not many draftees influence a side in year 1. In years 2-4 yes and that’s if we pick right.

Other clubs have been able to draft hard and bring in role players, a Ginnivan type deal for us this period would be amazing.

 

[DangerousD]

nope.

We had 2 of our best three midfielders either missing or wounded most of the year.

And the competition's best forward on one leg for most of the season too.

throw in the league's best emerging ruckman...getting butchered by (and long term injured) Xerri?

Walsh, Cerra, Curnow and TDK - the other teams?

Cmon Charlie and Walsh played most of the year, every team has injuries.

 

[slashin_velvet]

I agree that Austin has been underwhelming. I think we overpaid on Saad, and Cerra wasn't required, especially with Hewett brought in.

The decisions this year might be the correct ones, but possibly they are being made to correct the errors of previous years.

Time will tell.

I think its fair to say we've overpaid for most of our big name signings - but that's because you have to pay overs to get the other side to sign the deal. The only way to get a bargain at the trade table is to be in a 2 team town (or Geelong), and have the player nominate that they'll only consider playing for 1 club - OR go for lesser known quantities who haven't proven themselves yet - OR get a free agent (which costs cap space we don't really have)

 

[DangerousD]

Yeah, cause that's exactly what I said

Go back and read what I wrote...and this time, read it properly please

All good, my stance is much the same, relying on internal improvement and not being aggressive by adding players will see us stagnate, we seem to be much more conservative in strengthening the list than other clubs currently.

All other clubs have players returning from injury or previous years draftees they hope will improve the following year, we aren’t special here.

 

[JJBagger]

Cmon Charlie and Walsh played most of the year, every team has injuries.

Walsh had no preseason for the second year in a row, and copped a knock to his hip that clearly hampered him in the last 6 weeks or so. Charlie was constantly having to manage an ankle niggle from round 2 onwards. Cerra hurt most of the year too, TDK hurt from the second North game onwards. All those guys are top 8 players in our team when fully fit

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Hitting the draft with 12 and 13 is fine, if we find another 1-2 players like Acres or Holands who are AFL standard, the hitting the draft angle sounds great but not many draftees influence a side in year 1. In years 2-4 yes and that’s if we pick right.

Other clubs have been able to draft hard and bring in role players, a Ginnivan type deal for us this period would be amazing.

I personally don’t think we need draftees to influence in their 1st year (next year). I think we have the team to challenge in 2025 already.

I do however expect we will grab 1 or 2 cheap options also.

I’ve mentioned Stone numerous times but people come in saying he’s too injury prone with his hamstrings. Watch someone nab him on the cheap and he will excel over the next few years

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think its fair to say we've overpaid for most of our big name signings - but that's because you have to pay overs to get the other side to sign the deal. The only way to get a bargain at the trade table is to be in a 2 team town (or Geelong), and have the player nominate that they'll only consider playing for 1 club - OR go for lesser known quantities who haven't proven themselves yet - OR get a free agent (which costs cap space we don't really have)

I think if we get Houston, and a first round draft pick, followed by 3 late pickups, our cap will still be okay next year, and we will be able to look at 2025 free agents.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

So George and Nicky N both finish in the top 5 of our B&F..... for the combined princely sum of a 4th round pick.

Swans know how to instil professionalism to their players from day 1 of arriving......so why wouldn't we be interested in Jacob Konstanty? He hasn't been able to break into their best 22, but we know exactly the type of player we're getting....

 

[HaydossJ]

I agree that Austin has been underwhelming. I think we overpaid on Saad, and Cerra wasn't required, especially with Hewett brought in.

The decisions this year might be the correct ones, but possibly they are being made to correct the errors of previous years.

Time will tell.

Overpaid on Saad? 10 for an All-Australian level defender in a COVID-impacted draft seems a good price to me.

Which of these players (drafted 10-18) would you swap for Saad?

Zach Reid
Luke Pedlar
Tanner Bruhn
Tom Powell
Heath Chapman
Connor Stone
Lachie Jones
Ollie Henry
Ryan Angwin

 

[Garters]

Yeah, the winner of the Norm Smith medal.

However already on their list. So effectively no change just getting the right players fit. So all pieces of the puzzle to begin with. And elite across all lines. There are some serious pieces wanting from our list before we are serious contenders. The obvious ones having been discussed adnaseum.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Overpaid on Saad? 10 for an All-Australian level defender in a COVID-impacted draft seems a good price to me.

Which of these players (drafted 10-18) would you swap for Saad?

Zach Reid
Luke Pedlar
Tanner Bruhn
Tom Powell
Heath Chapman
Connor Stone
Lachie Jones
Ollie Henry
Ryan Angwin

Come on, don't be that hindsight guy with specific parameters to make a case.

1. It was Pick 8 at the time we traded.

2. We didn't know, and still don't, how many of those players will turn out. They are 22 yeah?

3. Max Holmes was taken at #20, Shannon Neale at #33, Beau McCreery at #44. Errol Gulden, while an academy selection, wasn't bid on until #32. That's why we don't use hindsight drafting to evaluate the worth of a trade.

4. Saad's AA season of 2022, was by far his best season in his career. I'm not sure if he was even in an AA squad until he joined us. Again, it's a hindsight call and not at all reflective of the trade at the time.

5. Saad was nominated for the rising star at Gold Coast, and Gold Coast only got a 2nd rounder from Essendon for him. After 3 seasons, Essendon converted that into Pick 8. We paid a premium based on our need for backline pace, no doubt about it.

 

[Prem17]

Which one is the good one? Or better one?

Stats listed on heraldsun website yesterday.
Both similar in a lot of areas, eg tackles.
Ben averages about 6 possessions per game more after a change to inside mid this year.

Article lists Ben as having played inside, and Lucas playing wing/half back.
Both have good tackle numbers. Almost 5 per game, from memory.

 

[Arr0w]

Overpaid on Saad? 10 for an All-Australian level defender in a COVID-impacted draft seems a good price to me.

Which of these players (drafted 10-18) would you swap for Saad?

Zach Reid
Luke Pedlar
Tanner Bruhn
Tom Powell
Heath Chapman
Connor Stone
Lachie Jones
Ollie Henry
Ryan Angwin

In theory we didn't overpay, but I didn't like the trade at the time given we hadn't established ourselves as a finals side at the time

 

[Benaly28]

Overpaid on Saad? 10 for an All-Australian level defender in a COVID-impacted draft seems a good price to me.

Which of these players (drafted 10-18) would you swap for Saad?

Zach Reid
Luke Pedlar
Tanner Bruhn
Tom Powell
Heath Chapman
Connor Stone
Lachie Jones
Ollie Henry
Ryan Angwin

None.


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[The Old Dark Navy's]

Every team above us could present a similar run down of who’s returning from injury and who can improve to help them climb the ladder.

Collingwood were aggressive prior to winning the flag and continue to to be aggressive to push for another.

Hawks were aggressive last year and are aggressive again.

Freo are targeting senior players this year

Geelong are being aggressive again

Port have a commitment from Lukoscious

But all we are hanging our hat on is internal improvement and Jack and Doc coming back,

I don't think that all of the other contenders are necessarily doing much to improve their lists this offseason.

Hawthorn yes ... Battle and Barass is big.

Brisbane no ... just the academy players in the draft. They have one hyuk size hole to fill in the mean time.

GWS no ... losing a few players.

Geelong, yes but ... Smith for a song because of his off field stuff and his year off injured. Unfortunately, we can not compete with their attractiveness. The but is another year older for Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Cameron etc. If they get Oliver, then that's a resounding yes however.

Dogs no ... losing some experienced depth.

Collingwood yes ... Perryman as a FA.

Port no ... potentially losing Houston and Lord, but gaining Lukosius. That's a net negative.

Sydney no ... going to be a quiet time in the harbour city.

Fremantle yes ... getting Shai Bolton.

I feel like only Hawthorn and potentially Geelong have made giant strides here. I agree that if Carlton don't land Houston, then we are a 'no' as well. It will all come down to this trade, unless we have something else in the works. 2 first rounders for Houston though, I think we lose that trade.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

In theory we didn't overpay, but I didn't like the trade at the time given we hadn't established ourselves as a finals side at the time

This. I feel like it was too early to go for an icing player, and I think Essendon extracted maximum compensation for him, given what they paid for him 3 years earlier. He was quick and exciting at the Gold Coast and they made out like bandits, while turning the screws on us. We pay more when we chase contracted players.

 

[Doro]

Anyone know what is so special about the treatment in Qatar compared to anywhere else?

They've basically got a truckload of money and have collated the best evidenced based research to find what works best on common sporting injuries. The best European football clubs seem to be sending there recurring injuries there. There is a 30 min video on their 6 stage hamstring protocol if you're interested.

Aspetar - Aspetar Hamstring Protocol

www.aspetar.com

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Saad was the covid draft. That’s the least valuable picks had ever been.

 

[HaydossJ]

Come on, don't be that hindsight guy with specific parameters to make a case.

1. It was Pick 8 at the time we traded.

2. We didn't know, and still don't, how many of those players will turn out. They are 22 yeah?

3. Max Holmes was taken at #20, Shannon Neale at #33, Beau McCreery at #44. Errol Gulden, while an academy selection, wasn't bid on until #32. That's why we don't use hindsight drafting to evaluate the worth of a trade.

4. Saad's AA season of 2022, was by far his best season in his career. I'm not sure if he was even in an AA squad until he joined us. Again, it's a hindsight call and not at all reflective of the trade at the time.

5. Saad was nominated for the rising star at Gold Coast, and Gold Coast only got a 2nd rounder from Essendon for him. After 3 seasons, Essendon converted that into Pick 8. We paid a premium based on our need for backline pace, no doubt about it.

1. Austin was aware that JUH and Campbell bids would move 8 to 10.

2. Yes some might have good careers. But you can’t ignore the 120+ elite level games that Saad will have given us.

3. I don’t understand this point. Out of the 50+ players drafted from #10 onwards, just Holmes and Gulden would be preferred to Saad. That is a 4% hit. You say ‘we don’t use hindsight’ - I say, Austin believed the 2020 draft was too risky and a known product in Saad was the better option. He was right.

4 & 5. Again, I’m not understanding. Are you saying that what happens after the trade is irrelevant? Lachie Neale was traded for 6 & 19 before he made an all-australian side. He is now a dual Brownlow medalist and premiership captain. Did Brisbane overpay?

 

[Prem17]

They added Dunkley, Gunstan and McKenna to get them from a prelim to a GF, they then and went and got free agent Doedee because they saw the need for a better KPD.

Yes we had injuries, but your comments that there isn’t anyone available to me seems like, giving the club an out, there’s always players available and there will be in the next week or so.

Barass would have been great for us.

I think that Austin has a few tricks up his sleeve for this trade period, and by that I mean that there are trades on the go that no one's even thought of yet.

He hasn't ruled out Houston but has made it clear that he wants at least 1 first round pick this year.

Who makes way for the salary cap?
I think we'll be ok for the moment but if TDK plays 20+ games next year we might not be.
Yet, the club can still afford to be in discussions for Houston, so that's a positive.

Does the contracted Pitto make way?
The club would have to gamble on OKeefe being able to have some impact if called upon, more time in the middle for Harry, and probably look at a dfa ruck as back up.

It's only a hypothetical.
My point being that I very much doubt that the only players we bring in will be from the 4 draft picks, and players that we think are "safe" atm could be in new colours next year.

Anything and everything should be considered possible to maximise this off-season.

Maybe this year's future 3rd trick will be for a KPD?