Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[Coops93]

Gov?

How many times has he done that? Once or twice? It's not a consistent threat from him.

 

[AndyNicka]

How many times has he done that? Once or twice? It's not a consistent threat from him.

I feel like he's done it 4-5 times in the past couple of years but I may be wrong. Probably not as often as Tuohy or Houston to be fair.

 

[JJBagger]

How many times has he done that? Once or twice? It's not a consistent threat from him.

He did about 3 times in a 5 week patch last year

 

[Coops93]

He did about 3 times in a 5 week patch last year

I feel like he's done it 4-5 times in the past couple of years but I may be wrong. Probably not as often as Tuohy or Houston to be fair.

He's kicked 5 goals in his last 3 years so I don't consider it a threat at all.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

What is the beef with Martin's professionalism? Always put in when available.

A fair slice of irony to question his professionalism when he had to source a treatment plan for his calf issues independently of the club.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

All Australian & top 5 kick for accuracy in the comp? Yes please.

I wonder if they’d play him in a wing/mid role rather than HBF (less a need for us). His peg inside 50 is just what we need.

 

[Coops93]

What is the beef with Martin's professionalism? Always put in when available.

A fair slice of irony to question his professionalism when he had to source a treatment plan for his calf issues independently of the club.

He's had queries since his time at the Suns. Not as though he's getting on the piss all week etc. but when it came to gym work in particular he didn't put in a whole lot, which shows in his size that he's never filled out or looked like he had good muscle tone. I think he'd be naturally skinny no matter what - ala Simpson to a degree - but Simpson still put in hard in the weight room whereas Martin has been joked to be afraid of the barbells.

I think running wise and that sort of thing he's fine, but the weight room is as important.

 

[Manhattanite]

Zac Williams and []Jack Martin[/] were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

You have to look beyond salary and see what picks we had to give up too - because clubs have to pay $ more for free agents and less money comparatively but more picks for RFAs and other non free agents.

In Martins case we had to increase the salary offer so that he could walk to us - which meant we had draft capital to use on Kemp and Philp. We otherwise would have given up something to the Suns which means we couldn’t have got both of those players (of course Philp didn’t work out but having pick 20 was in theory worth holding on to).

In Williams case we had to pay more to get him out and get the Giants enough comp so we didn’t have to trade with them as they could have matched. Doing that made it easier for us to trade for Saad and Fogarty and pick up Durdin in the draft.

Also in 2019 and 2020 we weren’t exactly a destination club so we didn’t have players falling over themselves to come over.

For Cerra for example we had to give up a first and a future third. But we pay him less than market value. Likewise for Saad we gave up pick 8 but we pay him less than market value and he’s been an All Australian for us.

So you do have to look at both salary and picks when assessing list decisions. Plus what the alternatives were. If not Martin who else was willing to come over? If not Williams who else?

Even last season when we finished 3rd and looked like a hot prospect for a 2024 flag run we didn’t get that many players banging on the door wanting to come over. So you do have to work with what’s available.


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[Blue_Fusion]

Williams salary is an issue, but nit one we can afford to fret over. He plays a position of need and is best 22 every day of the week. His lack of continuity has irked many, but a fit Zac Williams makes us substantially better. He hits targets more often than not by foot, as well as having great goal sense.

If he reaches a decent level of fitness under Inness, he will also provide the ability to go back or even pinch hit through the middle. At the moment, he is our best small forward option, even half fit. Get Fog fit for the pressure (possibly Cotts too) and some continuity for Durds and Mots and we have a functioning group of small forwards. The ongoing lack of continuity does lend itself to adding a premium option through the draft.

Zac’s salary is an issue, but we are not getting a club to take it on with his recent output. We can’t afford to offload him for outgoing picks, nir can we afford to lose his in field influence. While he did initially turn up overweight when recruited, there were some extenuating family circumstances taking his focus. I do not know how his rehab efforts and fitness focus has been of late, so it is impossible to pass judgement. He seems very invested, so I prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt until evidence to the contrary surfaces.

Don't agree with everything, but was just making the point... there were 6 listed on A+ salary, Zac's is on par or at the very least, close enough to theirs...

You're right about it being an issue... how many clubs are paying a small forward 850-900k? If there are any, that small forward would be putting in a lot more value in that role than Zac does for us...

Playing him forward was literally a last ditch attempt to keep him in the team... now we're fortunate that he has been able to show something there... but we could be paying a small forward significantly less for the same/similar output.

You're also right about no one wanting to take him with that salary... doesn't mean we can't trade him though... we'll just have to pay some of that salary...

Pies recognised Grundy was a problem and got rid of him, we however, are too nice/not bold enough to make any decisions like this so don't worry it'll never happen...

 

[T2B_]

Gov?

True, but I worry about his hammies every time

 

[DollarsandSense]

well this isn't very exciting...
some Bluemours would be amazing..
even one of RoyalBlues crazy messages would be ok for a bit....

 

[Schoonerman]

well this isn't very exciting...
some Bluemours would be amazing..

Yes it’s more like “List Management Part 3 “

 

[The Bighouse]

Gov?

Blew his chance..

 

[katmanblue]

Like that
Sans
Newman swipe.
Love Newy!

Love Newy too, but none of that is incorrect.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Curnowhan]

Don't agree with everything, but was just making the point... there were 6 listed on A+ salary, Zac's is on par or at the very least, close enough to theirs...

You're right about it being an issue... how many clubs are paying a small forward 850-900k? If there are any, that small forward would be putting in a lot more value in that role than Zac does for us...

Playing him forward was literally a last ditch attempt to keep him in the team... now we're fortunate that he has been able to show something there... but we could be paying a small forward significantly less for the same/similar output.

You're also right about no one wanting to take him with that salary... doesn't mean we can't trade him though... we'll just have to pay some of that salary...

Pies recognised Grundy was a problem and got rid of him, we however, are too nice/not bold enough to make any decisions like this so don't worry it'll never happen...

I’m not sure that’s it’s that we aren’t bold enough- the difference between Grundy and Williams is that Grundy had multiple clubs interested. I’m not sure that there would be too much interest from other clubs in Williams

 

[TENACIOUS]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Thanks for your reply…

If our list is unbalanced because of our top end talent, would the list and our chances be better, if we moved one or two of them on? Cerra & Williams..

I’d prefer to move on a combination of Motlop, Kennedy, Young, Cerra or Owies and not go after Houston. If it allowed us to get the 4-5 (B graders) in areas of need..

Then keep our first and F1 for the draft…

100% agree with you re Voss and Co, they have shown a reluctance to modernise the game plan and let the boys have some freedom to be creative..

Feel the coaching group are going to live or die by their sword and will double down with their stringent system…

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I’m not sure that’s it’s that we aren’t bold enough- the difference between Grundy and Williams is that Grundy had multiple clubs interested. I’m not sure that there would be too much interest from other clubs in Williams

At the right price, there could be some suitors...

North would be interested I would imagine...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Houston would probably be the only player since Touhy that we'd had that could semi-routinely roost a goal from 60m too.

Charlie...

 

[TENACIOUS]

Not sure Houston is a star?

Not likely to get Trac...

Durable experienced players that improve what we've had. As you said A KPD and pace out of the middle.
Forwards...I think with Fog and Zac and Moir we'll be good..although I'm not sold at all with Zac purely because he is not durable.

Of course Houston is a star…

I’d rather keep pick 11 & F1 and go after:
small forwards / KPD / midfield pace

 

[T2B_]

Charlie...

Fully fit certainly.

Don't think we saw it very much if at all this season, was very un-Charlie like.

 

[woof39]

I hope we land Houston. We are getting very old in the back half with Saad, Newman, Doc and Gov all 30+ next season. Who are the next group that match that quality?

How much do you trust Kemp, Cowan, Boyd, Cincotta and Wilson to replace these guys and not only take their roles but perform at the same level (that's IF the club see it that way)?

Bringing in Houston at his peak adds at least 4 more years of proven quality to work with Weitering.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Reckon a fit Cerra, playing good footy, is very much an A grader.

You want to say he's a B+ type? Well, fine!

Hopefully, the new S & C team can get him right...

I always go back to his numbers in the last handful of games at Freo - that's rarely been repeated at the Blues, but the numbers are compelling.

And let's compare his 2023 numbers (he had a good year) to Sam Walsh's 2023 season?

View attachment 2118972

Really

You just cherry picked Cerra’s best season, do it by career and Cerra is no where near Walsh…

 

[Sam The Doc]

Really

You just cherry picked Cerra’s best season, do it by career and Cerra is no where near Walsh…

Your lions avatar is doing my head in.
You know they've kicked us out of the last 2 finals?

 

[myblueroan]

Of course Houston is a star…

I’d rather keep pick 11 & F1 and go after:
small forwards / KPD / midfield pace

Christian is a star.
Houston is a talented player.

 

[Arr0w]

Doubt that Houston would cost us 2 × 1sts

I'd say pick 11, or most likely trading our F1 for a late 1st this year from Tigers after trading with the Dockers