Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[Faz 2000]

An awkward question… if the Campo twins are rated as a third rounder and a rookie pick (or so)… why are we hell bent on getting them? Setting aside the sentiment (which does matter), are we actually getting a bargain or advantage here or would we be better off just taking picks in a purely objective manner and if they’re available at our go, so be it.

I gather we’re now committed, but just curious - I see everywhere people talking “we’ll land this guy, that guy and the Campos” but take the name away and it sounds like “miscellaneous third rounder and rookie”.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

An awkward question… if the Campo twins are rated as a third rounder and a rookie pick (or so)… why are we hell bent on getting them? Setting aside the sentiment (which does matter), are we actually getting a bargain or advantage here or would we be better off just taking picks in a purely objective manner and if they’re available at our go, so be it.

I gather we’re now committed, but just curious - I see everywhere people talking “we’ll land this guy, that guy and the Campos” but take the name away and it sounds like “miscellaneous third rounder and rookie”.

Aside from the obvious answers... we'd have a scouting report far more in depth from far earlier on in their careers on the campo kids which when it comes to rookies which are often crapshoots is a distinct advantage no?

The obvious answer is respecting the father son system and that we've probably hid them to push them as low as third and rookie a fair bit too.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

If you want the best you gotta pay for it.
If pick 3 is running through the midfield on GF day next season with Cripps Walsh Cerra and TDK, I don’t think anyone will have any complaints …

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

An awkward question… if the Campo twins are rated as a third rounder and a rookie pick (or so)… why are we hell bent on getting them? Setting aside the sentiment (which does matter), are we actually getting a bargain or advantage here or would we be better off just taking picks in a purely objective manner and if they’re available at our go, so be it.

I gather we’re now committed, but just curious - I see everywhere people talking “we’ll land this guy, that guy and the Campos” but take the name away and it sounds like “miscellaneous third rounder and rookie”.

Ben won MVP for SA in the U18 carnival. No slouch...

 

[AT97]

Yeah but what if you were in that crowd of 1000 Ferrisb? Who would they both be pointing out then???

Pick 3 does seem appealing considering who the top 4 are projected to be on ESPN (excluding Ashcroft and Lombard):


1. Jagga Smith

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro

MID, 181cm

National Champs: 4 games, 29.3 disposals, 6.8 clearances, 4.8 marks

Talent League: 12 games, 33.8 disposals, 7.9 clearances, 0.6 goals

Jagga did his pick 1 chances no harm with a solid combine weekend, posting a 3.038 second 20m sprint and 6:27 minute 2km time trial. He's the 'can't miss' prospect of the draft, a creative on-baller with the ability to rack up huge numbers through work rate and clean skills. He already looked at home against the bigger bodies, averaging 27 disposals and six clearances for Richmond VFL. Smith's professionalism and leadership stand out, making him a good cultural fit for rebuilding sides.

Best traits similar to: Zak Butters


2. Sid Draper (2)

South Adelaide/South Australia

MID, 182cm

2024 Champs: 4 games, 21.0 disposals, 3.8 clearances, 2.8 marks

SANFL: 6 games, 22.2 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 6.2 tackles

Draper didn't test at the combine with a minor back complaint, but met with a host of clubs on the weekend. His stoppage craft and ability to hurt the opposition in space makes Draper a safe prospect with a huge ceiling. Recruiters rave about his professionalism and he's as likely as any prospect to captain an AFL club. Draper's draft range is locked into the top 10 after impressive performances at SANFL level, proving the Panthers' best midfielder against tough opposition.

Best traits similar to: Chad Warner


4. Finn O'Sullivan (4)

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Country

MID, 182cm

National Champs: 2 games, 11.5 disposals, 1.5 marks, 3.5 tackles

Talent League: 4 games, 17.2 disposals, 3.0 clearances, 1.2 goals

No midfielder at the top of the crop quite has the athletic profile of O'Sullivan, which was confirmed at the combine with elite results in agility and both vertical jumping tests. He's a brilliant aerialist for his size and glides across the ground with a bounding gait. Through injury and form slumps he's struggled to attain any consistency, but O'Sullivan remains a pick 1 chance and offers one of the highest upsides in the pool.

Best traits similar to: Heeney


6. Sam Lalor (6)

GWV Rebels/Vic Country

MID/FWD, 187cm

National Champs: 3 games, 11.0 disposals, 5.0 marks, 1.3 goals

Talent League: 4 games, 23.0 disposals, 6.2 clearances, 5.8 marks

Lalor is firmly in the mix for Richmond's pick 1. The powerful midfielder models his game on Dustin Martin and Jordan De Goey, and boasts similar burst and strength with his strong hips and fend off. A serious hamstring injury curtailed the end to his season and he didn't test at the combine. Lalor's brilliant contested marking and damaging disposal has kept him firmly in the first pick frame.

Best traits similar to: Christian Petracca








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Not that stats show a complete picture, but do those O’Sullivan numbers look light on for a full time mid ?


excuse the ignorance if that is not his position.

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

An awkward question… if the Campo twins are rated as a third rounder and a rookie pick (or so)… why are we hell bent on getting them? Setting aside the sentiment (which does matter), are we actually getting a bargain or advantage here or would we be better off just taking picks in a purely objective manner and if they’re available at our go, so be it.

I gather we’re now committed, but just curious - I see everywhere people talking “we’ll land this guy, that guy and the Campos” but take the name away and it sounds like “miscellaneous third rounder and rookie”.

personally would be happy to not pick up lucas. Slow wingman who isnt a great kick. However would be silly to not pick up ben

 

[AT97]

Think Austin said we want to take 4 picks in the ND.

Minimum

 

[Stamos]

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

You’re ignoring the risk of the contract.
Houston will be on 800k plus, for at least 5, probably 6 years. That’s a limiting factor for our list management.

Picks 12 and 14 will be on 130-140k each for the next 3 years.
If either is on 800k in 2028 then something has gone very very right.

 

[Wickzki]

Does this assume Freo trade out 10&11?

No firm knowledge of what West Coast is assuming but I feel they think they could've used 12 to get ahead of both of those picks in the end.

 

[Red Bull]

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

So Austin is to be denied a premium pick because Silvagni stuffed one up 10 years ago.
Think about Dustin Martin as a pick 3 and back Austin in …

 

[I bleed Blue]

What an actor.

Such a tragedy to lose him so young. His best work was ahead of him.

Anyway back to the footy..

 

[swuzzlebubble]

No firm knowledge of what West Coast is assuming but I feel they think they could've used 12 to get ahead of both of those picks in the end.

If this 10, 11 and 18 for Baker and Bolton went ahead they'd be set (but miss out on Baker)

 

[Stamos]

Minimum

I think that might be across both drafts. Can’t see us having the spots to take more than 4 in the ND, unless we change our structure.

 

[DangerousD]

Aside from the obvious answers... we'd have a scouting report far more in depth from far earlier on in their careers on the campo kids which when it comes to rookies which are often crapshoots is a distinct advantage no?

The obvious answer is respecting the father son system and that we've probably hid them to push them as low as third and rookie a fair bit too.

Ben was BOG in the futures game last year, was SA MVP in the champs and won the league B&F only playing 6 games.

I think the club has told the boys to focus on other things outside of football since the champs which has lowered their value

 

[Wickzki]

An awkward question… if the Campo twins are rated as a third rounder and a rookie pick (or so)… why are we hell bent on getting them? Setting aside the sentiment (which does matter), are we actually getting a bargain or advantage here or would we be better off just taking picks in a purely objective manner and if they’re available at our go, so be it.

I gather we’re now committed, but just curious - I see everywhere people talking “we’ll land this guy, that guy and the Campos” but take the name away and it sounds like “miscellaneous third rounder and rookie”.

Look at a lot of recent father/son selections.

Very good footballers that regularly get overlooked

Do you think if Calsher Dear wasn't a father/son that a team wouldn't have taken a shot before allowing him to slide to Hawthorn's last pick?

Many of these kids come in extremely well known and slowly slide as new, exciting, and most importantly available names become scouted (E: better term than available)

Father sons are now either at the top of the draft like Ashcroft and Daicos or they slide (Dear, Josh Daicos, Jack SOS, etc.). The last 5 or so drafts are full of it.

 

[Shades]

We keep talking about pick 3, yet our dual Brownlow medalist and 5 time B&F was pick 13….


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[DangerousD]

I think that might be across both drafts. Can’t see us having the spots to take more than 4 in the ND, unless we change our structure.

Is the 4 assuming Ben and Lucas are two of the draftees?

That makes sense with our current draft hand.

If Lucas gets to the rookie draft then hopefully we take another in the ND

 

[Revenant1965]

And if Ben is around 30 to 50 in the draft, and we get him at a discount, what have we lost? Personally, I think they've probably done what they've needed to not inflate their value and ensure they get to where they want...

 

[Cringle]

I’d assume F/Ss wouldn’t be interviewed and analysed as much as open draft players.

Hence they tend to slide.

Not worth investing x amount of hours into a player you’re almost certain will be matched.

 

[DangerousD]

I was really impressed with Austin’s deals yesterday, I’d still like him to split 12 with Richmond or Sydney to target Houston but assuming he sticks to his guns and we go to the draft.

Why stop at picks 12,14 and the twins?

If the draft is as good as people say, go harder, still trade with Richmond or Sydney.’

Take something like 14, 19, 21 and the twins.

 

[Stamos]

Is the 4 assuming Ben and Lucas are two of the draftees?

That makes sense with our current draft hand.

If Lucas gets to the rookie draft then hopefully we take another in the ND

Yes.
I guess it depends on if we can get a trade for Kennedy.

We could also go to the draft with 3 senior list spots and take the $80k risk that nobody bids on Lucas

 

[AT97]

I think that might be across both drafts. Can’t see us having the spots to take more than 4 in the ND, unless we change our structure.

Things change, but he definitely said min. a week ago.

 

[BlueSuede]

The mention of Pick 3 in the draft still gives me the creeps, our last attempt was woeful. At least with 2 shots at a quality player one just may hit bullseye.

I would love to know if someone has done a moneyball-type analysis of the value of higher picks vs the value of more picks. There's something to be said of the draft being a bit like a lottery, so an extra ticket is of value.

 

[Red Bull]

We keep talking about pick 3, yet our dual Brownlow medalist and 5 time B&F was pick 13….


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And the story goes that John Nicholls only made it to Carlton because the club were chasing his brother Don.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
Pick 3 pretty much takes luck out of the equation these days …

 

[Manhattanite]

For those saying Pick 3s aren’t guaranteed to be great players that’s true - but still more likely than Picks 10 and 12 combined.

Dow was Pick 3 but a) a majority of other clubs would likely have taken LDU or Cerra at 3 and both ended up better and b) it wasn’t a great draft class and that makes a big difference. The great draft classes have had players like Judd, Dusty Martin, Sheezel etc

Also picks 12 and 14 that season were Darcy Fogarty

32

Darcy Fogarty

Age

25

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.0

4star

and Matthew Ling. Fogarty is a decent player having played 102 games in 7 seasons and Ling played 4 before being delisted.

Out of the 19 kids picked in the first round from 2017 only one has become an All Australian across their first 7 seasons (Brayshaw who was pick 2). There are two All Australians from the second round that year - so double the first round count.




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