Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[pressurepoint]

Speaking of probabilities...

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In last 20 years...

Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.

Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.

Someone needs to run the same numbers over the Bluemour file thread

 

[Blues_1864]

Speaking of probabilities...

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In last 20 years...

Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.

Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.

So if we have two of the latter, do we come in to 2 / 5.8 = 1 / 2.9 chance of having one All Australian?

Nope, that's wrong, my science degree, PhD and 25 years of subsequent experience have been an absolute waste of time...

Damn your tricky fractions ferris, give me percentages or give me death!

 

[GT619]

What an actor.

Such a tragedy to lose him so young. His best work was ahead of him.

Anyway back to the footy..

my favourite joker

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

I like this approach - hopefully they’re considering this option also.

If The Wobblers can’t get their hands on 13 (looking likely at this stage), Houston reportedly doesn’t want to go to North, if we can entice a split of 12 for two later 1st round pics - Port might just settle for it in a very strong draft.

By all reports, it’s unlikely - but hopefully it’s being discussed in any case.

 

[Michael Jezz]

On draft night if Tauru was their at 12 & someone came knocking, we can take him or demand a windfall 2024 late first future first and future 2nd. Carlton may have taken control of the tollgate to the only bridge to some clubs draft needs. We just need to have the courage to negotiate hard

 

[The Bighouse]

You have got this all wrong, Barras is a younger version of Brian Lake and instead of winning 3 flags and a norm smith before he retires he will help us win 5 in a row and 2 normies.

Is this the Denver Granger-Barras variety?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Just a random thought that's probably already been discussed, but with very little mentioned about Carroll, I'm kind of thinking that we're just waiting on the WCE trades with Barrass, Baker etc before we negotiate with them.

They're up to their necks in trades, and there'll be draft picks flying everywhere, so we just have to wait to see what the fallout is after the dust settles. Probably just a late pick to get extra points for the Campo bids, but still a lot to play out either way.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

On draft night if Tauru was their at 12 & someone came knocking, we can take him or demand a windfall 2024 late first future first and future 2nd. Carlton may have taken control of the tollgate to the only bridge to some clubs draft needs. We just need to have the courage to negotiate hard

If Tauru is their at pick 12 then take Tauru.

 

[Blue Dimension]

I don’t understand the want to trade Carroll when we’re literally looking for young talent. We’ve invested 3 years into him - why trade him out now?

 

[Michael Jezz]

Is Granger-Barass good or another pumped up name?
Is a genuine KPD to fill a need and make us better or is he a kemp, JSOS swingman who perenially lacks a fixed positional identity?

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Sure but Port aren’t satisfied with just 12 and don’t want our available players. So what else goes with pick 12?

what else?

Part of whatever the reliable Mr Austin delivers in the next few days!

 

[RoyalBlues]

If Tauru is their at pick 12 then take Tauru.

Tauru definitely has star signs about him. Pretty bullish about him

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I like this approach - hopefully they’re considering this option also.

If The Wobblers can’t get their hands on 13 (looking likely at this stage), Houston reportedly doesn’t want to go to North, if we can entice a split of 12 for two later 1st round pics - Port might just settle for it in a very strong draft.

By all reports, it’s unlikely - but hopefully it’s being discussed in any case.

I doubt Houston wants to go the Pies either!!

 

[RoyalBlues]

I doubt Houston wants to go the Pies either!!

Is it the Pies or Fly he’d rather avoid?

 

[El Topo]

Is Granger-Barass good or another pumped up name?
Is a genuine KPD to fill a need and make us better or is he a kemp, JSOS swingman who perenially lacks a fixed positional identity?

COVID draft product, buyer beware

 

[ferrisb]

So if we have two of the latter, do we come in to 2 / 5.8 = 1 / 2.9 chance of having one All Australian?

Nope, that's wrong, my science degree, PhD and 25 years of subsequent experience have been an absolute waste of time...

Damn your tricky fractions ferris, give me percentages or give me death!

3% chance of two
29% chance of one
68% chance of none

I think

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

May be unrealistic but Trainor looks like he could play CHB next year:


Such a mature build already - 194 and quick.

If it's a straight choice between Houston and someone like him - it's a no-brainer for me. We've got a gigantic hole in our list at CHB. It has to be the #1 priority.

We also need a fast small forward.

Trainor is one of the players I'd be happy with at our picks. Supposedly more of an attacking rebounding type of tall, but that doesn't mean he can't defend as well. At the very least, he'd be a taller Gov replacement.

Yes please.

 

[Soapy V]

I don’t understand the want to trade Carroll when we’re literally looking for young talent. We’ve invested 3 years into him - why trade him out now?

Because he is very similar to what we already have. Inside tough mid and not a great ball user. We need quicker players and better ball use

Club don't believe we can fit Cripps Hewett Kennedy Carroll and possibly Lord all in the same side

Maybe a bit tough on Carroll but you need to make tough decisions to improve

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Just because the cap is going up doesn’t mean there isn’t a bigger risk taking on large, long contracts for older players than there is for shorter, much lower contracts.

Again:

1. Are we in a premiership window now?
2. How much does Voss et al. reckon DH will improve our onfield performance?
3. How long before a drafted player will add to our onfield output, if at all?
4. How many years do each of Doc, Newman and Saad have left?

For me the answers are:

1. Yes. 100%. Need better injury management/luck....
2. A lot imo - his ball use is superb. We have little of that presently.
3. Who f'n knows - you'd think, two years at least (and again, if they make it).
4. maybe 1 year, maybe 2 years, maybe 3 years.

 

[DangerousD]

Who said he’s gonna stop?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

No one, latest rumour has us trading up which I don’t believe, but to get more picks we either need to cut more or gamble on Lucas getting to the rookie draft

 

[DangerousD]

As it stands, we've got to create 3 extra places on the senior list. Add another pick, and that's 4. Likely depends on trading out contracted players.

If Lucas gets to the rookie draft it helps

 

[DangerousD]

Not ignoring that at all. What are you basing that presumption on exactly?

We will lose - Martin, Marchbank, Cuningham, likely one (or both) of Owies or Kennedy - and S. Durdin if we keep Young.

AND

View attachment 2139001

So, no. No ignorance!

50/50 whether a draftee at 12 or 14 makes it....

Houston will be a fine player, 100% guaranteed.

Those figures you’ve put up aren’t for the salary cap, that’s the soft cap, the salary cap increases next year by a few Million $$$$.

But reports have lots of existing contracts increasing in line with the changes

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Could anyone envision us going double tall?

12 - Tauru, 14 - Trainor

 

[Bletch]

If Lucas gets to the rookie draft it helps

We can't control that though. So we'd have to have a spot for him on draft night, or be prepared to go 37-5 rather than 36-6.

 

[carlton_99]

What other moving parts would we even have to do this?