The point of 12 and 14 is to replace our bottom end with talented youth, even if they end up as solid b graders they'll be addressing our major structural problem
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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Speaking of probabilities...
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
In last 20 years...
Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.
Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.
Speaking of probabilities...
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
In last 20 years...
Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.
Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.
So if we have two of the latter, do we come in to 2 / 5.8 = 1 / 2.9 chance of having one All Australian?Speaking of probabilities...
AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru
www.draftguru.com.au
In last 20 years...
Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.
Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.
my favourite jokerWhat an actor.
Such a tragedy to lose him so young. His best work was ahead of him.
Anyway back to the footy..
I like this approach - hopefully they’re considering this option also.Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.
Spread your risk....
That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....
Is this the Denver Granger-Barras variety?You have got this all wrong, Barras is a younger version of Brian Lake and instead of winning 3 flags and a norm smith before he retires he will help us win 5 in a row and 2 normies.
If Tauru is their at pick 12 then take Tauru.On draft night if Tauru was their at 12 & someone came knocking, we can take him or demand a windfall 2024 late first future first and future 2nd. Carlton may have taken control of the tollgate to the only bridge to some clubs draft needs. We just need to have the courage to negotiate hard
what else?Sure but Port aren’t satisfied with just 12 and don’t want our available players. So what else goes with pick 12?
If Tauru is their at pick 12 then take Tauru.
I doubt Houston wants to go the Pies either!!I like this approach - hopefully they’re considering this option also.
If The Wobblers can’t get their hands on 13 (looking likely at this stage), Houston reportedly doesn’t want to go to North, if we can entice a split of 12 for two later 1st round pics - Port might just settle for it in a very strong draft.
By all reports, it’s unlikely - but hopefully it’s being discussed in any case.
Is it the Pies or Fly he’d rather avoid?I doubt Houston wants to go the Pies either!!
COVID draft product, buyer bewareIs Granger-Barass good or another pumped up name?
Is a genuine KPD to fill a need and make us better or is he a kemp, JSOS swingman who perenially lacks a fixed positional identity?
3% chance of twoSo if we have two of the latter, do we come in to 2 / 5.8 = 1 / 2.9 chance of having one All Australian?
Nope, that's wrong, my science degree, PhD and 25 years of subsequent experience have been an absolute waste of time...
Damn your tricky fractions ferris, give me percentages or give me death!
May be unrealistic but Trainor looks like he could play CHB next year:
Such a mature build already - 194 and quick.
If it's a straight choice between Houston and someone like him - it's a no-brainer for me. We've got a gigantic hole in our list at CHB. It has to be the #1 priority.
We also need a fast small forward.
I don’t understand the want to trade Carroll when we’re literally looking for young talent. We’ve invested 3 years into him - why trade him out now?
Again:Just because the cap is going up doesn’t mean there isn’t a bigger risk taking on large, long contracts for older players than there is for shorter, much lower contracts.
No one, latest rumour has us trading up which I don’t believe, but to get more picks we either need to cut more or gamble on Lucas getting to the rookie draft
If Lucas gets to the rookie draft it helpsAs it stands, we've got to create 3 extra places on the senior list. Add another pick, and that's 4. Likely depends on trading out contracted players.
Those figures you’ve put up aren’t for the salary cap, that’s the soft cap, the salary cap increases next year by a few Million $$$$.Not ignoring that at all. What are you basing that presumption on exactly?
We will lose - Martin, Marchbank, Cuningham, likely one (or both) of Owies or Kennedy - and S. Durdin if we keep Young.
AND
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So, no. No ignorance!
50/50 whether a draftee at 12 or 14 makes it....
Houston will be a fine player, 100% guaranteed.