Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[newblueo]

Carlton posters are all over this thread, saying 'you're doing recruiting wrong'

Did you tell you're mum? Maybe she can get them banned or get a time out..

 

[Pessimistic]

Did you tell you're mum? Maybe she can get them banned or get a time out..

No but I told yours etc etc

 

[Malifice]

We rested so many players we played a kid who isnt even on an AFL list.

We rested all three of our rucks, plus Cripps and Fisher. We literally had Ed Curnow rucking against McEvoy, with the latter ramming it down JOM's throat.

Our starting midfield was Dow, Walsh, SPS with Setterfield and Gibbons rotating through. They;re all basically 0-2 year players with a combined 50 AFL games between the 5 of them (almost all coming from Dow and SPS who are 20 years old).

We also had Garlett playing in defence where he apparently handed 4 goals to you blokes via direct turnovers. Had a crocker.

I wouldnt read too much into it.

 

[Iceman!]

To answer the OP, no, they cannot succeed. Hawthorn has simply loaded up on moderately skilled older players to try and keep the dream alive. They have the oldest list in the league with no real hint of major improvement. Guys like JOM, Wingard & TMitch have reached their ceilings and Stratton, Bruest, Smith & Roughead are all on their way down. They have no good players under 23.

LMFAO what a post.

Jaeger and Wingard have reached their ceilings at 24 and 25 years old? Jaeger has reached it after his first full season in 3 years? Danger and Dusty were 26 when they have those amazing Brownlow seasons. Thinking either of those two have reached their ceilings is more hope than anything.

Stratton and Breust are coming off career best years and Breust only turned 28 3 months ago, he will play the whole year as a 28 year old. Is Dangerfield also on the way down? Because he is 28 as well.

No good players under 23 is also just rubbish, Hardwick is legit a gun. Worpel and Morrison had very promising years last year and a will look to build on that.

 

[tige19]

We rested all three of our rucks, plus Cripps and Fisher. We literally had Ed Curnow rucking against McEvoy, with the latter ramming it down JOM's throat.

Our starting midfield was Dow, Walsh, SPS with Setterfield and Gibbons rotating through. They;re all basically 0-2 year players with a combined 50 AFL games between the 5 of them (almost all coming from Dow and SPS who are 20 years old).

We also had Garlett playing in defence where he apparently handed 4 goals to you blokes via direct turnovers. Had a crocker.

I wouldnt read too much into it.

We played a top up ruckman in the 2nd half, give it a rinse mate. You where horrid, you're going to be horrid, I can say that because I don't think we will be any better than a mid run team and it was like an intra club match for us for the 1st 3 qtrs. Sorry but thats the reality.

 

[Malifice]

We played a top up ruckman in the 2nd half, give it a rinse mate. You where horrid, you're going to be horrid, I can say that because I don't think we will be any better than a mid run team and it was like an intra club match for us for the 1st 3 qtrs. Sorry but thats the reality.

We didn't play a ruck at all and our mids were all 1st and 2nd year players.

Again, I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[Alphonse_]

Hawthorn are stuffed after Clarko leaves as coach in 2-3 years time, and we all know it.
Think it will be similar downwards spiral to Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

 

[RUNVS]

Hawthorn are stuffed after Clarko leaves as coach in 2-3 years time, and we all know it.
Think it will be similar downwards spiral to Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

Manchester United are 4th on the EPL table.

 

[footyfan1978]

Post-Norm Smith Melbourne like downward spiral?
Big call, maybe just post Sheedy Bombers style fall or post-Parkin Blues type fall.

 

[tige19]

Manchester United are 4th on the EPL table.

That was a brilliant correlation that dude made... ManYooo are CL and Europa league regulars, and under Ole have been the most exciting team in the 2nd half of the season to watch. Sometimes you just need to face plant.

 

[tige19]

Hawthorn are stuffed after Clarko leaves as coach in 2-3 years time, and we all know it.
Think it will be similar downwards spiral to Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

Because Clarko hasn't firmly put in place a plan already for when he moves on right? Yes.... OK.

 

[Iceman!]

Hawthorn are stuffed after Clarko leaves as coach in 2-3 years time, and we all know it.
Think it will be similar downwards spiral to Manchester United, after Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

Luckily he just signed a 4 year contract extension in October aye

 

[Jobe Watson]

That was a brilliant correlation that dude made... ManYooo are CL and Europa league regulars, and under Ole have been the most exciting team in the 2nd half of the season to watch. Sometimes you just need to face plant.

After going through 4 managers in 5 years and suffering their worst EPL season in 14 years.

 

[hk89]

Then you have Stratton, Birchall, Frawley, Puopolo. All these can't be replaced with top ups and picks in the 60s.

Can't help but have a laugh when people list a player who has played 5 games in the last two seasons as irreplaceable.

 

[RUNVS]

Hawthorn's 2018 Best and Fairest and their ages

1. Tom Mitchell (25.8)
2. Blake Hardwick (22.0)
3. Isaac Smith (30.1)
4. Jack Gunston (27.4)
5. Jaeger O’Meara (24.11)
6. Luke Breust (28.3)
7. Ben Stratton (29.11)
8. Ben McEvoy (29.7)
9. Liam Shiels (27.9)
10. James Sicily (24.1)

So in terms of important players approaching retirement age Hawthorn are not in too bad shape. Only Smith, Stratten and perhaps Shiels and McEvoy are even approaching retirement age and even they are a few years off.

 

[La Dispute]

Early days, but I hear hawks no name young midfield made a mess of Carlton’s, the one chock full of early draft picks today.

One swallow and all that, but you’d think Carlton’s young stars could handle a bunch of no names

I remember how well we went last year after winning the coveted Carlton/Hawthorn pre-season throwdown

 

[Scotland]

That was a brilliant correlation that dude made... ManYooo are CL and Europa league regulars, and under Ole have been the most exciting team in the 2nd half of the season to watch. Sometimes you just need to face plant.

Not sure how relevant this is to the AFL or Hawthorn but Man Utd won the PL 5 times in the 90s and 8 times between 99/00 and 12/13. They didn't finish outside the top 3 for 20 years. A couple of times they finished 2nd by 1 point and once on goal difference. They've since finished 5th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 2nd (19 points off top) and are currently 4th and out of contention. Being in contention for a top 4 spot is good for some clubs but not Man Utd (and others - if Barcelona or Real Madrid fall out of the top 2 in Spain it's a massive deal). Man Utd not even qualifying for the UCL is a poor result given their spending.

I guess a comparable case in the AFL is making finals but not being a legit flag threat. Nobody wants to finish 3rd or 4th or 5th in the AFL every year, they want to make and win Grand Finals. Hawthorn finished just outside the finals and then 7th or 8th after the 2008 flag then had a massive run from 2011-2016. Any footy fan would take that, but if Man Utd finished in the bottom 10 of the EPL for one season there would be wholesale changes.

 

[hk89]

Hawthorn's 2018 Best and Fairest and their ages

1. Tom Mitchell (25.8)
2. Blake Hardwick (22.0)
3. Isaac Smith (30.1)
4. Jack Gunston (27.4)
5. Jaeger O’Meara (24.11)
6. Luke Breust (28.3)
7. Ben Stratton (29.11)
8. Ben McEvoy (29.7)
9. Liam Shiels (27.9)
10. James Sicily (24.1)

So in terms of important players approaching retirement age Hawthorn are not in too bad shape. Only Smith, Stratten and perhaps Shiels and McEvoy are even approaching retirement age and even they are a few years off.

And comparing to say Carlton:
1st - Patrick Cripps 23.11
2nd - Kade Simpson 34.9
3rd - Ed Curnow, Charlie Curnow 29.3 and 22
5th - Dale Thomas 31.8
6th - Liam Jones 27.11
7th - Zac Fisher 20.8
8th - Sam Rowe retired 31.3
9th - Matthew Wright retired 29.2
10th - Marc Murphy 31.7

So one 30+ player in the Hawks top 10, and 4 in Carlton's. Hawthorn have 6 in the top 10 under 29, Carlton had 4. I think it is pretty clear which team is being held together by players on the verge of retirement.

Hawthorn's VFA side just won a VFL grand final, so they still have plenty of youth to draw on that isn't already in the best 22. Carlton's issue is that their quality youth is largely already playing in the best 22, so when Murphy, Thomas, Simpson (and Kruezer who probably would have been top 10 if not for injury) retire, they not only need their current best 22 young kids to step up, they also need to find new players to replace them in the best 22. Good luck getting those from the Carlton players running around in their VFL affiliate side who came 4th last in 2018, and has been in the bottom 4 for 3 out of the last 4 seasons.

 

[Scotland]

Carlton are awful. Don't compare yourself to Carlton unless you are setting your sights on 16th/17th.

 

[La Dispute]

And comparing to say Carlton:
1st - Patrick Cripps 23.11
2nd - Kade Simpson 34.9
3rd - Ed Curnow, Charlie Curnow 29.3 and 22
5th - Dale Thomas 31.8
6th - Liam Jones 27.11
7th - Zac Fisher 20.8
8th - Sam Rowe retired 31.3
9th - Matthew Wright retired 29.2
10th - Marc Murphy 31.7

So one 30+ player in the Hawks top 10, and 4 in Carlton's. Hawthorn have 6 in the top 10 under 29, Carlton had 4. I think it is pretty clear which team is being held together by players on the verge of retirement.

Hawthorn's VFA side just won a VFL grand final, so they still have plenty of youth to draw on that isn't already in the best 22. Carlton's issue is that their quality youth is largely already playing in the best 22, so when Murphy, Thomas, Simpson (and Kruezer who probably would have been top 10 if not for injury) retire, they not only need their current best 22 young kids to step up, they also need to find new players to replace them in the best 22. Good luck getting those from the Carlton players running around in their VFL affiliate side who came 4th last in 2018, and has been in the bottom 4 for 3 out of the last 4 seasons.

Simmo aside, our older statesmen will still be there in a couple of years time. By the time Thomas/Murphy/Curnow are ready to retire our drafted mids will be in their 4th/5th/6th years, which is roughly the age they’re established senior footballers.

I wouldn’t put much credence into BnF positions from last year.

 

[hk89]

Simmo aside, our older statesmen will still be there in a couple of years time.

Try telling that to the folks that think we are about to drop off a cliff because our older statesmen are all about to leave. Roughy may well be in his last year, but replacing Roughy in 2018 form isn't going to be hard in terms of pure on field contribution as a key forward goes. We don't need a Lynch to provide what Roughy was capable of providing last year. We also seem to get no credit for the fact that we successfully transitioned out Sam Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson, Lake, Hale, Lewis in the post seasons of 2015-2017 and still managed top 4 H&A in 2018. Why are people so convinced we can't continue to bring in players like JOM, T.Mitchell, Wingard and (hopefully) Scully while developing a few kids like Hardwick and Sicily to replace the guys next on the departure list? Hawthorn have a track record of being able to move on players and still perform well enough to get a double chance (not that we made good use of it last year), so I don't see why we can't continue the transition process without a massive fall off.

By the time Thomas/Murphy/Curnow are ready to retire our drafted mids will be in their 4th/5th/6th years, which is roughly the age they’re established senior footballers.

How many of those mids are not already playing? Obviously Walsh hasn't played a senior game yet and will be one of those, but if the others are already in the best 22 (as I suspect they are given your 4th,5th,6th year estimates given Murphy and Thomas will be 33 by the end of next year's season) , where are the other best 22 replacements coming from?

I wouldn’t put much credence into BnF positions from last year.

I don't think Bnf is a great way of rating your best players, as Bnf results can reflect contributions more than skill, with guys that put in 100% efforts every week often batting above their average in the bnf results, but it is clear a lot of your major contributors are getting long in the tooth. IMO you've done well in recruiting in the last few years, but you need to keep it up, because of the factor I mentioned - you've got talented guys that can step into the shoes of those leaving, but they are largely already playing seniors for Carlton, so you need a new batch of non-plodders to fill the spots under them. Maybe you've got more depth at VFL than the Northern Blue's performances make out, but I suspect you'll need to continue to recruit well to fill the spots. Or follow Hawthorn's blueprint for past success and start filling those spots from other sources. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[Pessimistic]

We rested all three of our rucks, plus Cripps and Fisher. We literally had Ed Curnow rucking against McEvoy, with the latter ramming it down JOM's throat.

Our starting midfield was Dow, Walsh, SPS with Setterfield and Gibbons rotating through. They;re all basically 0-2 year players with a combined 50 AFL games between the 5 of them (almost all coming from Dow and SPS who are 20 years old).

We also had Garlett playing in defence where he apparently handed 4 goals to you blokes via direct turnovers. Had a crocker.

I wouldnt read too much into it.

Morrison 20 games Worpel 11 Cousins 5.
Just wanna thank your young guys for making our ‘no good’ youth look very good. Gives teams such as ours with apparently nothing to look forward to ‘when our older stars retire’ some false hope even if it is pre season

Apologies to carlton fans if you see this as trolling I probably wouldn’t even be commenting if we didn’t have certain carlton posters telling us our grim future over and over in this thread. It’s a mild WTF dudes

 

[La Dispute]

Try telling that to the folks that think we are about to drop off a cliff because our older statesmen are all about to leave. Roughy may well be in his last year, but replacing Roughy in 2018 form isn't going to be hard in terms of pure on field contribution as a key forward goes. We don't need a Lynch to provide what Roughy was capable of providing last year. We also seem to get no credit for the fact that we successfully transitioned out Sam Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson, Lake, Hale, Lewis in the post seasons of 2015-2017 and still managed top 4 H&A in 2018. Why are people so convinced we can't continue to bring in players like JOM, T.Mitchell, Wingard and (hopefully) Scully while developing a few kids like Hardwick and Sicily to replace the guys next on the departure list? Hawthorn have a track record of being able to move on players and still perform well enough to get a double chance (not that we made good use of it last year), so I don't see why we can't continue the transition process without a massive fall off.



How many of those mids are not already playing? Obviously Walsh hasn't played a senior game yet and will be one of those, but if the others are already in the best 22 (as I suspect they are given your 4th,5th,6th year estimates given Murphy and Thomas will be 33 by the end of next year's season) , where are the other best 22 replacements coming from?



I don't think Bnf is a great way of rating your best players, as Bnf results can reflect contributions more than skill, with guys that put in 100% efforts every week often batting above their average in the bnf results, but it is clear a lot of your major contributors are getting long in the tooth. IMO you've done well in recruiting in the last few years, but you need to keep it up, because of the factor I mentioned - you've got talented guys that can step into the shoes of those leaving, but they are largely already playing seniors for Carlton, so you need a new batch of non-plodders to fill the spots under them. Maybe you've got more depth at VFL than the Northern Blue's performances make out, but I suspect you'll need to continue to recruit well to fill the spots. Or follow Hawthorn's blueprint for past success and start filling those spots from other sources. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Hawthorn have done remarkably well to stay competitive while turning over their list, no doubt. Whether that translates into more flags into the future is anyone’s guess but at absolute base-level they’ve continued to fill holes in their list while developing young talent from mid-range and later selections.

Our challenge is to get to the level where we’re attracting talented players (which we have, but players with limited experience) and developing the players we’ve already acquired through the draft and targeted trades. Naturally they’re linked. If SPS, Fisher, McKay, Curnow et al continue on their current trajectory, the transition will be an easy one.

Sure many of our young players are already playing, but many aren’t playing at a consistent standard due to inexperience. In most other teams they’d be playing in the seconds, but many are getting games out of necessity. Those guys need time playing with a cohesive squad and vice versa. You can’t expect to be competitive with a huge chunk of the squad playing less than 50 games.

I think we’re starting to get to get the balance right, and we’ve almost got the requisite number of games into young players to be competitive week-to-week (like to Brisbane Lions last year). If Walsh can come in and be a strong contributor straight away and guys like Cuningham, Fisher and SPS go to another level that will help our midfield exponentially, and that is a current area of weakness.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I hate Hawthorn as much as the next person.

I would take Hardwick in a heartbeat. Genuine gun.

Na, Sicily is a genuine gun.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Pessimistic blowing his load after a scratch match win against the team that won the wooden spoon. Lol.