Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[ChappyUK]

Carlton are awful. Don't compare yourself to Carlton unless you are setting your sights on 16th/17th.

Well his name is Pessimistic

 

[Randy Campbell]

Carlton are awful. Don't compare yourself to Carlton unless you are setting your sights on 16th/17th.

Are you saying we should ignore the elite end of the draft (picks 2 / 3) to avoid being awful?

 

[tige19]

Hawthorn have done remarkably well to stay competitive while turning over their list, no doubt. Whether that translates into more flags into the future is anyone’s guess but at absolute base-level they’ve continued to fill holes in their list while developing young talent from mid-range and later selections.

Our challenge is to get to the level where we’re attracting talented players (which we have, but players with limited experience) and developing the players we’ve already acquired through the draft and targeted trades. Naturally they’re linked. If SPS, Fisher, McKay, Curnow et al continue on their current trajectory, the transition will be an easy one.

Sure many of our young players are already playing, but many aren’t playing at a consistent standard due to inexperience. In most other teams they’d be playing in the seconds, but many are getting games out of necessity. Those guys need time playing with a cohesive squad and vice versa. You can’t expect to be competitive with a huge chunk of the squad playing less than 50 games.

I think we’re starting to get to get the balance right, and we’ve almost got the requisite number of games into young players to be competitive week-to-week (like to Brisbane Lions last year). If Walsh can come in and be a strong contributor straight away and guys like Cuningham, Fisher and SPS go to another level that will help our midfield exponentially, and that is a current area of weakness.

On paper Carlton looked to have a list of talented and elite juniors who have struggled to adapt or progress to the highest level. It’s not to say they won’t, but there is little to suggest the current crop has enough to turn Carlton into a genuine finals team.

There is obvious stark differences in the way the 2 clubs develop youngsters, whilst we haven’t had your luxury of picking in the top 3-4 every year for god knows how long, we’ve been shrewd enough to pick good footballers later on and give them the best environment to be league footballers.

For instance you have a young kid SPS, basically the same age as Worpel.. one is an early pick, flashy and has talent, the other is a junior captain, no thrills and works his ring off. I know who I’d take! Is SPS a product of environment? Same as Dow, he looks a nice footballer but in my view, he should be better. Is there that much difference between James Cousins and Paddy Dow in terms of what they can offer at AFL level? Reality is there’s not.

I think the real question is, what sort of development program do Carlton run? You can’t have the amount of elite young talent coming into your club each year and still be an extremely poor onfield team.

 

[La Dispute]

For instance you have a young kid SPS, basically the same age as Worpel.. one is an early pick, flashy and has talent, the other is a junior captain, no thrills and works his ring off. I know who I’d take! Is SPS a product of environment? Same as Dow, he looks a nice footballer but in my view, he should be better. Is there that much difference between James Cousins and Paddy Dow in terms of what they can offer at AFL level? Reality is there’s not.

I think the real question is, what sort of development program do Carlton run? You can’t have the amount of elite young talent coming into your club each year and still be an extremely poor onfield team.

Every player is an on a different development curve. You don’t take the player for how they player in their first and second year - you draft them based on how they’ll develop over the course of their careers. Worpel came into the league as a relatively big bodied inside mid and was always going to be more AFL-ready than many players in his draft pool.

SPS is far more meat-and-potatoes than many give him credit for. He’s a great decision-maker, poised and has finally built a fitness base so he can run end to end. This is also the first pre-season he’s completed.

Dow will be a surprisingly slow burn. He dominated as an inside midfielder at junior level against players of the same size, but he doesn’t have that luxury as a 2nd year mid. He’s basically relying on his smarts around the contest to win clearances, and until he puts on some size he won’t be able to able to just bulldoze his way through. I think we should be looking at Dangerfield’s development, and give him plenty of time forward to utilise some of his other strengths (speed, goal sense) while incrementally increase his midfield time.

Again, hard to judge these guys until much further into their careers when they become the main stakeholders (ala Cripps, Docherty) in the team. A successful team will also be another powerful driver for development, as Hawthorn have shown over the years.

Edit - a LOT is being said on the basis of one pre-pre-season match. The team will naturally perform and gel far better with Cripps and Fisher back into the lineup.

 

[Malifice]

On paper Carlton looked to have a list of talented and elite juniors who have struggled to adapt or progress to the highest level. It’s not to say they won’t, but there is little to suggest the current crop has enough to turn Carlton into a genuine finals team.

Virtually all of whom came from the 2015 draft onwards (Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Cuningham, Kennedy). Meaning they have had (at most) 3 years of AFL football, and are only now in their 4th preseason Three of those five are KPPs. Curnow missed most of his 1st year with glandular fever and Kennedy has had a serious shoulder injury over that time.

SPS, Setterfield and Fisher came the year after in 2016 (and 2 of those players have had injuries including an ACL and a broken leg) and have only had 2 years of AFL football and are now in their 3rd pre-season. Dow and OBrien have only had the 1 year of AFL footy, and Stocker and Walsh have yet to play an AFL game.

The general rule is that it takes around 4 years in the system before you're doing more than contributing at AFL level. Even the best players of recent years (GAJ, Watson, Dusty, Danger) werent setting the world on fire in their first 3-4 years; generally this doesnt happen for most players till they reach that 4 pre-season mark and approach 100 games (around 22-23 years of age).

Look at GWS who were loaded with gun kids, but got repeatedly flogged for the first few years while those kids got stronger and got games into them.

There are exceptions to the general rule of course, and some players start with a bang. But we often make the mistake of expecting too much from players aged 18-21 in their first 3 or so years in the system.

Re Carlton, we'll be fine. We just need a couple of years to get some games into the above kids, fill them out, and build them into a team.

 

[JoondalupJ]

Early days, but I hear hawks no name young midfield made a mess of Carlton’s, the one chock full of early draft picks today.

One swallow and all that, but you’d think Carlton’s young stars could handle a bunch of no names

Bit early yet, to see real battle conditions, but , the draft has to be had, also though it doesn't mean a thing when we know there are always failures , you are never going to tell. The draft is a TV show now.
If you operate on long term plans and pull in youngsters over time rather that winning all one years best drafts, I think you can fit them when you want them and maybe blood them for 2 or 3 years at Box Hill.
That is what Kennedy Snr did , I remember being wrapped that Tuckey had player two years as a reserve player before getting the nod for seniors, then went on for years. Someone may correct me there , but I thought in times gone by it was a normal practice at Hawthorn .

 

[JoondalupJ]

Virtually all of whom came from the 2015 draft onwards (Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Cuningham, Kennedy). Meaning they have had (at most) 3 years of AFL football, and are only now in their 4th preseason Three of those five are KPPs. Curnow missed most of his 1st year with glandular fever and Kennedy has had a serious shoulder injury over that time.

SPS, Setterfield and Fisher came the year after in 2016 (and 2 of those players have had injuries including an ACL and a broken leg) and have only had 2 years of AFL football and are now in their 3rd pre-season. Dow and OBrien have only had the 1 year of AFL footy, and Stocker and Walsh have yet to play an AFL game.

The general rule is that it takes around 4 years in the system before you're doing more than contributing at AFL level. Even the best players of recent years (GAJ, Watson, Dusty, Danger) werent setting the world on fire in their first 3-4 years; generally this doesnt happen for most players till they reach that 4 pre-season mark and approach 100 games (around 22-23 years of age).

Look at GWS who were loaded with gun kids, but got repeatedly flogged for the first few years while those kids got stronger and got games into them.

There are exceptions to the general rule of course, and some players start with a bang. But we often make the mistake of expecting too much from players aged 18-21 in their first 3 or so years in the system.

Re Carlton, we'll be fine. We just need a couple of years to get some games into the above kids, fill them out, and build them into a team.

Got to say I never know what "on paper" really means? Its always on the ground that means anything, and this is practice time folks.

 

[RUNVS]

Got to say I never know what "on paper" really means? Its always on the ground that means anything, and this is practice time folks.

On paper means basically just the names, not taking into account anything else, like how the players actually gell together as a unit, or the individual players actual form, and not the form they have produced in previous years.

 

[Pessimistic]

Pessimistic blowing his load after a scratch match win against the team that won the wooden spoon. Lol.

Great post. In the fact you could post it in nearly every autopsy thread, seem slightly relevant but in fact adding absolutely nothing
The Swiss army knif of posts. Does many things, but none satisfactorily

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Great post. In the fact you could post it in nearly every autopsy thread, seem slightly relevant but in fact adding absolutely nothing
The Swiss army knif of posts. Does many things, but none satisfactorily

Ok

 

[RUNVS]

Great post. In the fact you could post it in nearly every autopsy thread, seem slightly relevant but in fact adding absolutely nothing
The Swiss army knif of posts. Does many things, but none satisfactorily

How did you get ahold of my old year 12 report card?

 

[Pessimistic]

How did you get ahold of my old year 12 report card?

Maybe I wrote it

 

[Gavin Excell]

Bit early yet, to see real battle conditions, but , the draft has to be had, also though it doesn't mean a thing when we know there are always failures , you are never going to tell. The draft is a TV show now.
If you operate on long term plans and pull in youngsters over time rather that winning all one years best drafts, I think you can fit them when you want them and maybe blood them for 2 or 3 years at Box Hill.
That is what Kennedy Snr did , I remember being wrapped that Tuckey had player two years as a reserve player before getting the nod for seniors, then went on for years. Someone may correct me there , but I thought in times gone by it was a normal practice at Hawthorn .

Certainly the production is a tv show but the facts show best players come rounds 1 and 2 draft
The fact your club and mine has had limited access to them over past 10 years is a reason hawthorn and Geelong are just making up numbers 2019

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Certainly the production is a tv show but the facts show best players come rounds 1 and 2 draft
The fact your club and mine has had limited access to them over past 10 years is a reason hawthorn and Geelong are just making up numbers 2019

Making a prediction isn't a fact.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Making a prediction isn't a fact.

2 facts quoted

1.Record of picks round 1 and 2

2. Geelong and hawthorn number of r1 and 2 picks

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

2 facts quoted

1.Record of picks round 1 and 2

2. Geelong and hawthorn number of r1 and 2 picks

Try your last line out for size again, mate.

The fact your club and mine has had limited access to them over past 10 years is a reason hawthorn and Geelong are just making up numbers 2019

You're making a prediction about this year based on draft picks.

We get it, you're still sulking over finals losses but there's no need to continually post about them. Try and enter the season in a positive frame of mind and you might enjoy it more.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Try your last line out for size again, mate.



You're making a prediction about this year based on draft picks.

We get it, you're still sulking over finals losses but there's no need to continually post about them. Try and enter the season in a positive frame of mind and you might enjoy it more.

Jeezus

Not sure why you are so sensitive about my predictions.

I suggest you dont have access to top draft picks over time it bites.

Its hardly a controversial opinion

 

[Xtreme]

I love it when Geelong supporters headbutt each other!!

 

[Pessimistic]

2 facts quoted

1.Record of picks round 1 and 2

2. Geelong and hawthorn number of r1 and 2 picks

wouldnt be surprised if the most successful 1 and 2 picks came to hawthorn

 

[Gavin Excell]

wouldnt be surprised if the most successful 1 and 2 picks came to hawthorn

Only when washed up

Eg Scully , JOM

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Jeezus

Not sure why you are so sensitive about my predictions.

I suggest you dont have access to top draft picks over time it bites.

Its hardly a controversial opinion

Your opinion still isn't fact, which is the point of this exchange.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Your opinion still isn't fact, which is the point of this exchange.

Correct my opinion isnt fact.
Never implied it was

 

[TallyHawk]

Old Stabby stinking up another thread.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Correct my opinion isnt fact.
Never implied it was

You sure did.

 

[Gavin Excell]

You sure did.

Okaaay