Opinion Can the Hawks make finals in 2024?

[cryptor]

Was 13-1 last week

On SM-A546E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Was 110/1 just after the Saints win

 

[scrim reaper]

Was 110/1 just after the Saints win

And it'll be 4/1 by Saturday night

 

[threesixpio]

It is getting interesting, Hawks have Tigers - West Coast - Cats - Freo - Pies - Crows - Giants - Blues - Tigers - North

It is a pretty soft drawer - Hawks are still to play the bottom 2 sides three times. And all the sides above are dropping games left and right.

It still seems unlikely though. If the Hawks can win 3 of their next 5 then maybe it is worth talking about. Until then I am just enjoying a bunch of kids taking over.

Blues
Geelong
Pies

Big games.

And cats down at the Shattery too

 

[threesixpio]

huge ask, that's why Sportsbet have the Hawks at 6-1 to make the top eight.
the Port Adelaide game was the killer.
Still reckon we are good for 9-10 wins this year, which IMO is a massive positive, and far exceeds most pre-season expectations.
its impossible to over-estimate the contribution Chol/d'Ambrosio/Ginnivan has made to the side.

Yeah I still say it’s the %

Have to be one clear game above 9th basically and there is a whole bunch trying to edge into 8th position

 

[JoondalupJ]

It's the offseason, there's lots to ponder.

Can Hawthorn make the jump and contend for finals in 2024?

If you can't be optimistic about your side in the off-season you're likely following an absolutely trash side, so I'm going to present the case for, in part.
I know others will present the case against, likely highlighting that we need to go passed others, that development and improvement isn't always linear, what if injuries etc.

But let's focus on what we know and what went right in 2023.

Remember when we “gutted the midfield” and "will struggle to win 3 games"? Well what actually happened was that we went from the worst clearance side in the comp to amongst the best in the course of half a season with the new group.
By the end of 2023 this new Hawthorn midfield, the youngest in the comp, averaged more Centre Clearances per game than every side in the comp, bar the top 4 finishing Power and Lions sides.

Now while we took a good third of the season to take advantage of the new midfields performances at the clearances(no doubt hindered by the loss of Lewis over that time, Gunston heading North and McEvoy retiring), according to Rob McCartney on Hawks Insiders from Round 10, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won. During that period Hawthorn played 9 games against the eventual finalists, knocked off the Dogs and lost to the Tigers in the final moments of the game.
We did all this with what could often be described as a makeshift or clumsy forward line, and will head into 2024 with 3 additions via trade, of which all are capable of at least 20 goals each(some might suggest that Chol and Ginnivan are more than capable of double that).

In the Fig.1 overview below you can see that despite our slow start the year these young Hawks defeated their fair share of top 8 sides, and lost as many close ones as sides that were tipped to play finals.
It's not beyond the realms that Hawthorn could've had 10 wins on the board by the end of 2023, and what makes for a strong argument that we have a good chance of rising is that we enter 2024 without trying to facilitate so much change in the most important part of the ground.

Fig.1
View attachment 1854047
(D) = draw


Remember also when “the youngsters will struggle to run out the season”? The stats below in fig.2 show that the youngsters and the side as a whole continued to push hard even against much more seasoned sides, and as I posted in the preseason thread the system with which we played with over that period is a more than fair chance to become the baseline of what our accepted output should be in 2024.
Does that mean we sit 1st in numerous CD rankings in 2024? No.
Does that mean we win the flag? No.
Does it mean we win enough games to make finals? Not necessarily.

But it does mean that while our midfield and forward half took at least 7-8 rounds to come out of the fog(and return of Lewis), we should be far more competitive from the very first bounce in 2024, and we should be more than capable of winning the majority of games against sides in the bottom 6, of which we do have quite a few, considering our 16th placed finish in 2023.

fig.2
View attachment 1854043

In short, we could have quite easily had 10 wins in 2023, despite the rebuilding of the midfield and having Fergus Greene as our key forward for a third of the year, and with that in mind for 2024 I'd be amazed if the internal benchmark for a successful season is anything less than 10 wins with so much growth to come across the list and the additions to our forward half...certainly after my quick look at the draw I think that 10 wins is entirely achievable and that puts us right in the frame to be challenging for finals should we sneak a couple of unexpected wins early in the year.


What say you?

I always come back to the reality of week after week and predicting against 17 other teams in off season using far flung statistics means not much.
I, maybe naively, thought we'd go and scrape into the finals after 2023.

After the first few games of this season and the capitulating in the last minutes of quarters, after great showing, I began to think that they didn't have the cattle , that they could not develop consistency or the coach wasn't getting the message through, or maybe they just had too many that were not AFL standard, they had some injured players, I remember thinking Mitch Lewis , is he ever going to be healthy enough to play 8 or 10 games in a row and perform. He is a great forward, "sometimes". But a champion with issues of body?

So I gave it in and thought keep building keep trying.

Then as I found out last few weeks we have sort of broken a spell in a way, except for Port Adelaide, having done so well, then capitulation after a couple of wins.

But the wins came back again, and I hope we can take care of Richmond.

We took Brisbane in a low, they may have gained something back now.

We have beaten those clubs that might make it, I think we've suffered some early season floggings and where are the Suns?? We remember that????

So for me my vote was MAYBE.

There is definitely a change and not a mediocre change either.

Something clicked in place and the skills and the talent we had already there began to come out, we hadn't really seen it.
Maybe it was a tiny change like roaming free Hardwick out of the back and a trial up front, Big Ned became better Meek goes down but we found out that he actually is the big "gorilla" and primed for best form at his age for a ruckman. Jaith and Chol. whooo ho ho. what we expected has just popped out the last month and a bit.
For how we were, doing, Port you could call a win, well, you can;t you know what I mean.

But I am simply not sure now, or yet. After wins and form of all clubs we have to be realistic, but we have a nucleus of serious follow-up players to our golden years!

Can they get close , these boys ?
Yes but I don't think we'll see the likes of 12 GF loss 13 14 15 gf wins again.
But you know Its there, so on the past month I'd say we can make finals, doing it is another story, consistency of all improvements is how its done. Its in the head, and it is week for week that saying is true,
Change happens every second of every week.

But they look likethey know each other better.

 

[badgrill]

Yeah I still say it’s the %

Have to be one clear game above 9th basically and there is a whole bunch trying to edge into 8th position

also a few with a game up their sleeve due to already having their bye

 

[Nugett]

Yeah I still say it’s the %

Have to be one clear game above 9th basically and there is a whole bunch trying to edge into 8th position

The percentage doesn’t really phase me at the moment. It is where we are currently at. If my memory serves me correctly in 2007/2008 our percentage was average, but we were still winning the games necessary for us to be playing finals. In 2007 particularly I viewed it as a young team starting to improve. As the players played more games together between 2011 to 2015 we were able to put most teams away comfortably. In 2016, our average was back to being average, due to a lot of close wins, a part of that was because we were on the decline.

So our current poor average is where the team is at currently. With more experience and confidence, in the next couple of years, our percentage will not be an issue. The biggest thing is if we make finals, is that they are learning to win. If we don’t make finals this year, it gives them more incentive to make them next year.

I’m just loving the upward trajectory that this team is developing

 

[Simon Crawshay]

It is getting interesting, Hawks have Tigers - West Coast - Cats - Freo - Pies - Crows - Giants - Blues - Tigers - North

It is a pretty soft drawer - Hawks are still to play the bottom 2 sides three times. And all the sides above are dropping games left and right.

It still seems unlikely though. If the Hawks can win 3 of their next 5 then maybe it is worth talking about. Until then I am just enjoying a bunch of kids taking over.

That really is not a hard run home at all.

We get The Tiges twice, North, West Coast, Adelaide (who are imploding), Geelong (have hit the wall but at Kardinia so still tricky) Giants (who are struggling) Collingwood (usually our bunnies) and Freo down in Tassie.

I feel like the game against the Blues will be th season defining one. That could be absolutely massive game.

 

[The Chad and I]

Young teams and young players can often put together a month or so of good form.

Is there enough juice within the team to pick up the slack when day has a quiet week or three.

If Newcombe plays a bit hindered by a niggle for the rest of the season.

If Sicily gets rubbed out.

Or if Lewis doesn’t hit any form for six weeks and only unsettles the balance be Chol and Dead.

So many variables.
But if we maintain this current level of form, we really could make the finals.

 

[Buttonsticher]

Was 110/1 just after the Saints win

Dang nab it

 

[HedgeFund]

That really is not a hard run home at all.

We get The Tiges twice, North, West Coast, Adelaide (who are imploding), Geelong (have hit the wall but at Kardinia so still tricky) Giants (who are struggling) Collingwood (usually our bunnies) and Freo down in Tassie.

I feel like the game against the Blues will be th season defining one. That could be absolutely massive game.

We haven’t beaten Fremantle since 2019. Carlton are a level above and Collingwood should be getting their guns back together when we play them again.

Will be difficult. Not impossible, but difficult.

 

[Viddiot]

The Lions win tonight has been dubbed a 'season revival'. We are 2 points below them.
Finals?

 

[mustang]

Yeah I still say it’s the %

Have to be one clear game above 9th basically and there is a whole bunch trying to edge into 8th position

We play Richmond and North in the last 2 rounds, hopefully we can get some percentage back in those two games.

 

[KermitJagger]

We play Richmond and North in the last 2 rounds, hopefully we can get some percentage back in those two games.

There are multiple teams competing for the bottom half of the 8 who have a draw in the pocket. I don't reckon it'll boil down to percentage that we miss or not, it'll be that extra 2 points.

 

[peetoo]

There are multiple teams competing for the bottom half of the 8 who have a draw in the pocket. I don't reckon it'll boil down to percentage that we miss or not, it'll be that extra 2 points.

We can get by with a draw and two losses max. But of course we may never lose again

 

[Leather Poisoning]

It all depends how we come out after the bye. Let's say we beat richmond and go in 7-7 (That would be pretty awesome actually).

We've had a terrible start and come back to balance the ledger.

If we get Lewis back post bye and that improves us again (god imagine someone who can mark an outlet kick!) then we can look to turn those 20 point wins into 30-40 point wins.

We're a young side and we have to drop an unexpected game here or there. It can't be a linear improvement.

The 4 challenging games are against Geelong (GHMBA), Freo (in Tassie), GWS (Manuka) and Carlton (MCG). These are games where we should come in as underdogs.

The other 5 games, based on current form, we should be favourites. (Collingwood, Adelaide, North, Richmond, West Coast).

So if we we 2 or more challenging games
And 4 or more games as favourites.

It's final baby.

 

[Yardie]

That really is not a hard run home at all.

We get The Tiges twice, North, West Coast, Adelaide (who are imploding), Geelong (have hit the wall but at Kardinia so still tricky) Giants (who are struggling) Collingwood (usually our bunnies) and Freo down in Tassie.

I feel like the game against the Blues will be th season defining one. That could be absolutely massive game.

The Freo one will be our defining game. We haven't beaten a Longmuir coached side yet.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

It all depends how we come out after the bye. Let's say we beat richmond and go in 7-7 (That would be pretty awesome actually).

We've had a terrible start and come back to balance the ledger.

If we get Lewis back post bye and that improves us again (god imagine someone who can mark an outlet kick!) then we can look to turn those 20 point wins into 30-40 point wins.

We're a young side and we have to drop an unexpected game here or there. It can't be a linear improvement.

The 4 challenging games are against Geelong (GHMBA), Freo (in Tassie), GWS (Manuka) and Carlton (MCG). These are games where we should come in as underdogs.

The other 5 games, based on current form, we should be favourites. (Collingwood, Adelaide, North, Richmond, West Coast).

So if we we 2 or more challenging games
And 4 or more games as favourites.

It's final baby.

I can't see a world where we will be favourites againt the pies....freo and GWS better chances for us imo

 

[Billyc]

That really is not a hard run home at all.

We get The Tiges twice, North, West Coast, Adelaide (who are imploding), Geelong (have hit the wall but at Kardinia so still tricky) Giants (who are struggling) Collingwood (usually our bunnies) and Freo down in Tassie.

I feel like the game against the Blues will be th season defining one. That could be absolutely massive game.

5 of our last 10 games are against bottom 4 sides. Thats a very soft run home. It’s possible, but all of those 5 games need to be wins and probably 2 or possibly 3 of the others given our percentage.

 

[hk89]

Don't think we'll do it. Yes we've been good the last few weeks, but our results against top 8 sides are not good, and we still have 5 of them to play. Given it is quite likely we can only drop 2 games due to our very poor percentage and the giant log jam for 8th spot, even if we play well from here I see us missing out by percentage.

On the positive side, if we do make it we'd have beaten several top 8 teams along the way, and based on that form, could well win a final which would be huge for the group going into next season.

 

[KermitJagger]

Don't think we'll do it. Yes we've been good the last few weeks, but our results against top 8 sides are not good, and we still have 5 of them to play. Given it is quite likely we can only drop 2 games due to our very poor percentage and the giant log jam for 8th spot, even if we play well from here I see us missing out by percentage.

On the positive side, if we do make it we'd have beaten several top 8 teams along the way, and based on that form, could well win a final which would be huge for the group going into next season.

We have as many wins against top 8 sides as Geelong, Essendon and Fremantle.

 

[KermitJagger]

Interesting that unlike other sides we've actually been fairly reliable despite a very tough draw. We haven't lost a game to a team behind us on the ladder, and we've beaten 3 of the 5 teams directly above us. Yet we're still 12th.

 

[peetoo]

Squiggle only thins we pick up 4-5 wins from here

We are going much better than 50 50

 

[earthworms]

Interesting that unlike other sides we've actually been fairly reliable despite a very tough draw. We haven't lost a game to a team behind us on the ladder, and we've beaten 3 of the 5 teams directly above us. Yet we're still 12th.

If we had good % we could be 8th rn

 

[SSSSSS]

Percentage is going to hurt us.

I think we will rue that Port loss this year but we will be able to look back on it in years to come as the catalyst to our rise to the top.

Nothing like pain as a motivator.