Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion

[passmark]

A fifth round pick is always going to be speculative... furthermore, he's a tall... unless they're in the top 10 (and sometimes even then) a tall is speculative... you just don't know... would you not prefer it to be spent on a Silvagni than on someone else?

What's a Silvagni?
No, I'd prefer it was spent on the person we thought was worthy of being on the list.

The kid hasn't been selected and people are already projecting.

Do we save 2 or three spots for the sons of every ex-player?

It will bad for us and the kid if the selection is not merit based.

 

[ODNBlue]

I

What's a Silvagni?
No, I'd prefer it was spent on the person we thought was worthy of being on the list.

The kid hasn't been selected and people are already projecting.

Do we save 2 or three spots for the sons of every ex-player?

It will bad for us and the kid if the selection is not merit based.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. To my mind Jack has probably shown enough. In my opinion any pick at Round 5 is speculative. I'd rather we chose a father/son player than some other player. You disagree. That's cool.

 

[Sector 7G]

If our the recruiters didn't think he was worth it then don't pick him.

Further, if he, we, SOS aren't sure, then he doesn't have to nominate and can go into the 2016 draft. He's just had a shoulder operation.

He can train with us, play with the NB's sometimes, all that stuff. The benefit he gets another year, we get to see what he's made of , how his shoulder goes etc.

If he comes up gold, so be it. There's a message we, as a club, need to send here as much to the fans as to the players. That is a place on the list is a privilege not a gift, not done as a deal, no favourites (like Daisy), no messiahs. Just hard ******* work.

Would be a smart move. Jack will be in year 12 next year and it would be better to take one FS this year and one the next.

 

[passmark]

Would be a smart move. Jack will be in year 12 next year and it would be better to take one FS this year and one the next.

That as well.

Forgot he was in year 12 next year, so another year may also better for his personal development.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Forgot he was in year 12 next year, so another year may also better for his personal development.

How often does a kid wait a year to be drafted just to suit a club? Not often is my bet.

 

[thylacine60]

re: Sam Sheldon

 

[Sector 7G]

How often does a kid wait a year to be drafted just to suit a club? Not often is my bet.

How often is a player very bottom age, a late starter at school and a FS . Not very often

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Stupidity, SOSOS has shown more than enough to be drafted already. Lock him in with a discounted rate due to the 20% father son, shoulder injury and youth that means we'll get him at pick #50 rather than wait till next year and have him chop in the juniors and we only get the 20% discount.

 

[no passengers]

If our the recruiters didn't think he was worth it then don't pick him.

Further, if he, we, SOS aren't sure, then he doesn't have to nominate and can go into the 2016 draft. He's just had a shoulder operation.

He can train with us, play with the NB's sometimes, all that stuff. The benefit he gets another year, we get to see what he's made of , how his shoulder goes etc.

If he comes up gold, so be it. There's a message we, as a club, need to send here as much to the fans as to the players. That is a place on the list is a privilege not a gift, not done as a deal, no favourites (like Daisy), no messiahs. Just hard ******* work.

Absolutley disagree with this.He is the son of a carlton champion,i do not use that word lightly.(champion)We will get him cheap this year and the chances he wont turn out a very good player are in my opinion ,less than 10%. We would be fools not to pick him at a later pick in this years draft.To get any sort of advantage over the other 17 teams we have to take some calculated risks.Other wise we will never be good enough to win number 17.

 

[passmark]

Absolutley disagree with this.He is the son of a carlton champion,i do not use that word lightly.(champion)We will get him cheap this year and the chances he wont turn out a very good player are in my opinion ,less than 10%. We would be fools not to pick him at a later pick in this years draft.To get any sort of advantage over the other 17 teams we have to take some calculated risks.Other wise we will never be good enough to win number 17.

Son of former champ? So what.?

You think he's a 90% chance of being a very good player? What's your definition of a very good player? 150 games?

Calculated risk? sounds more like you are getting a little excited about a guy with a surname you recognize.

Number 17? This kid is the difference between us and a flag? Just how many games have you watched of his?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You don't know what you're talking about passmark.

Firstly he has impressed me a lot in the games he's played.

Secondly, due to the FS son system we will get a 20% discount on where another club rates him.

So that means not only do we rate him at that point, but another club does as well. I have no doubts he will get triggered by another club at some point after the 30 pick point.

So the question is

SOSOS, son of a champion, rated the 30th-50th best kid under 18 in the country at a 20% discount vs some other kid, rated 30-50th best kid in the country, no discount, no history.

There is no world where you dont take SOSOS there.

This fantasy world you're living in where SOSOS doesnt even get bid on and we draft him with our last pick with no other club being interested in him or we rookie him is just that, fantasy. It won't happen.

Kid can play.

 

[ferrisb]

I think passmark is being 'misunderestimated' (have always wanted to use that bushism)

I don't think s/he is saying Jack is/n't worth drafting, but that we shouldn't give Jack a free pass because of lineage. And that lineage shouldn't really be a factor if there is better talent / value elsewhere.

IF we rated another available kid(s) higher than the discounted bid price, we should be passing on SOSOS.

I don't think that's very controversial or heartless.

passmark how'd I do?

Personally I think Jack has shown enough to use a late pick on. Anything that low down is guesswork. Jack may not make it, but has shown enough that he is probably as good a chance as any late pick. If Jack is bid higher up, then we have to fall back on exactly what we think he is worth (after discount) and compare alternatives. I'd ascribe a small value to the surname. #1 as a fan / club I think there's value in the 'fairytale' #2 we'd have a good insight into family, upbringing and mental fortitude - which are all factors in determining success.

 

[thebluelagoon]

I think passmark is being 'misunderestimated' (have always wanted to use that bushism)

I don't think s/he is saying Jack is/n't worth drafting, but that we shouldn't give Jack a free pass because of lineage. And that lineage shouldn't really be a factor if there is better talent / value elsewhere.

IF we rated another available kid(s) higher than the discounted PRICE, we should be passing on SOSOS.

I don't think that's very controversial or heartless.

passmark how'd I do?

Personally I think Jack has shown enough to use a late pick on. Anything that low down is guesswork. Jack may not make it, but has shown enough that he is probably as good a chance as any late pick. If Jack is bid higher up, then we have to fall back on exactly what we think he is worth (after discount) and compare alternatives. I'd ascribe a small value to the surname. #1 as a fan / club I think there's value in the 'fairytale' #2 we'd have a good insight into family, upbringing and mental fortitude - which are all factors in determining success.

I don't think that we should be drafting him for marketing value... really? you want to create a fairytale by drafting a bloke on his name, even though you think that he won't make it? I would not be buying short-term membership sales and medium term disillusionment with draft picks which could be used on someone who might be able to play football. (please note, i am not saying JOS can't play football)

 

[passmark]

I think passmark is being 'misunderestimated' (have always wanted to use that bushism)

I don't think s/he is saying Jack is/n't worth drafting, but that we shouldn't give Jack a free pass because of lineage. And that lineage shouldn't really be a factor if there is better talent / value elsewhere.

IF we rated another available kid(s) higher than the discounted PRICE, we should be passing on SOSOS.

I don't think that's very controversial or heartless.

passmark how'd I do?

Personally I think Jack has shown enough to use a late pick on. Anything that low down is guesswork. Jack may not make it, but has shown enough that he is probably as good a chance as any late pick. If Jack is bid higher up, then we have to fall back on exactly what we think he is worth (after discount) and compare alternatives. I'd ascribe a small value to the surname. #1 as a fan / club I think there's value in the 'fairytale' #2 we'd have a good insight into family, upbringing and mental fortitude - which are all factors in determining success.

Yes, exactly.

If the pick is not worth it, don't pick him. That pick includes his discount.

I don't know how good he is, neither does FBI, it's a guess.
I watched the 18's carnival and he looks a clever, neat player with good instinct and handy skills. I'm also sure he'd be of great character. But he also looked like a real boy out there, a bit slow and not much of him.

I'm in no way suggesting he won't make it.

If they pick him on merit (taking into account the discount) then I hope it's a football decision, not a marketing decision.

We also don't need to take him this year, we don't have to do anything. He can do year 12, grow, get his body right (shoulder op) and still train with the club and play NB's if he want, when ready.

Everyone wants the dream, I know I do but there's been plenty of sons of champs that go on to be be chumps.

 

[blue_trinity]

Absolutley disagree with this.He is the son of a carlton champion,i do not use that word lightly.(champion)We will get him cheap this year and the chances he wont turn out a very good player are in my opinion ,less than 10%. We would be fools not to pick him at a later pick in this years draft.To get any sort of advantage over the other 17 teams we have to take some calculated risks.Other wise we will never be good enough to win number 17.

If he was only a 10% chance of being a bust, then he'd be going in the first round.

Personally, I think he's got about a 10-15% chance of making it (playing 150 games). If our recruiters think that's worth a pick in the 3rd round, take him there; if they think it's worth a pick 5th round, take him there; if they think it's worth a rookie spot, take him there. It's really that simple.

For me, there's almost no chance (5%) he goes 3rd round, slight (20%) chance he goes 4th, pretty good chance (50%) he goes 5th, slight chance he goes rookie and almost no chance he goes un-drafted at all.

I know one club recruiter that doesn't think much of him, so I doubt they don't bid on him (although he didn't say that as such)

 

[ferrisb]

I don't think that we should be drafting him for marketing value... really? you want to create a fairytale by drafting a bloke on his name, even though you think that he won't make it? I would not be buying short-term membership sales and medium term disillusionment with draft picks which could be used on someone who might be able to play football. (please note, i am not saying JOS can't play football)

I wasn't suggesting marketing over talent. In the bit you highlighted I said I would place a small value on his surname. And marketing consideration was only one component of that small value. So I'm not by any means advocating drafting him coz it would 'be nice'.

I'm happy for others to give zero value to his name. I appreciate the completely subjective viewpoint. No arguments there.

For me, I wouldn't pick him over a clearly more talented kid, but if it was lineball or he was 0.5% weaker than the alternative, I would pick him.

I'd say once you get to the back end of the draft, there is no such thing as consensus on who is the 88th, 89th, 90th most talented kids. I think (just a hunch) that after the first few rounds, each club has their handful of favourites and targets that might not even be other clubs' radars. It would come down to needs, team fit and probably just your recruiter having seen 'something'.

FTR I liked passmark's description of SOS a few posts above. I think it's spot on. I do however, disagree with the wait and see approach.

I think if he spent a year in the VFL, you would get your answer whether he is good enough to make it or not. If he isn't good enough, you've saved yourself a pick. Good outcome. But if he proves himself, you could well be paying a 2nd rick pick. I'd rather use a 4th/5th round / rookie pick now than risk having to pay much more a year later. That's the punt and I think it's worth it.

 

[Ladytron]

He's a Bradley, similar to a tuck. Ultra slow burn. We should rookie him (prelisted rookie fs rules) sit him in the development league for 3 years then make a call when he's 21.

How does FS work in PSD and rookie drafts?

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[Omega Blue]

How does FS work in PSD and rookie drafts?

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I believe if you don't nominate them and they get through the Draft you can then prelist them as a rookie without having to pick them.
So essentially your last rookie pick.

 

[Ladytron]

I believe if you don't nominate them and they get through the Draft you can then prelist them as a rookie without having to pick them.
So essentially your last rookie pick.

Sounds like the old FS arrangement

 

[Dramoth]

There have been a number of father/son potentials who didnt make the cut over the years between us picking up Jarrad Waite and Dylan Buckley. Son's of legendary players for the club and not so legendary players.

Bailey Rice and GSOS1 can both play... Bailey is ready to go for next year and would basically walk straight into the senior side. GSOS1... would need a couple of years eating more of nonna's spag bolg and chicken parmas to put some weight on... he is as skinny as. And in a couple of years of hard work in the gym and out at the Bullants, he will be ready to join the seniors.

Bailey is my biggest worry. If he nominates us, I suspect that there might be one or two teams that might try and bid him up on us and try and screw the rest of our draft for us. However, I can pretty much guarantee that no one is going to bid on a member of the Silvagni family line that decends from Serge. If they do, all sorts of shit is going to happen. In 2 years time, he will walk out of whatever club drafted him and enter straight into the PSD and set a price on his head that only Carlton will match. No club is going to entertain the idea of snaffling GSOS1 and put 2 years worth of development into him only to lose him for nothing.

In 3 years time... Ben is going to be going into the F/S system... and from all accounts, he is worth a first rounder... even with the discount. So I hope that in 2 years time, we do some snazzy trading and get a 2019 first round pick that we can use on Ben.

 

[Weiterbot23]

You can't underestimate the memberships silvangi would bring in.

We are one of the worst clubs in the Comp at the moment. At very least, over the preseason we could wheel him out for a quick good news story.


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[no passengers]

There have been a number of father/son potentials who didnt make the cut over the years between us picking up Jarrad Waite and Dylan Buckley. Son's of legendary players for the club and not so legendary players.

Bailey Rice and GSOS1 can both play... Bailey is ready to go for next year and would basically walk straight into the senior side. GSOS1... would need a couple of years eating more of nonna's spag bolg and chicken parmas to put some weight on... he is as skinny as. And in a couple of years of hard work in the gym and out at the Bullants, he will be ready to join the seniors.

Bailey is my biggest worry. If he nominates us, I suspect that there might be one or two teams that might try and bid him up on us and try and screw the rest of our draft for us. However, I can pretty much guarantee that no one is going to bid on a member of the Silvagni family line that decends from Serge. If they do, all sorts of shit is going to happen. In 2 years time, he will walk out of whatever club drafted him and enter straight into the PSD and set a price on his head that only Carlton will match. No club is going to entertain the idea of snaffling GSOS1 and put 2 years worth of development into him only to lose him for nothing.

In 3 years time... Ben is going to be going into the F/S system... and from all accounts, he is worth a first rounder... even with the discount. So I hope that in 2 years time, we do some snazzy trading and get a 2019 first round pick that we can use on Ben.

My two cents worth,first of all if a club bid on jack and carlton said we wont match the bid regardless of the round,jack would then maybe think,if this other club loves me more than carlton,perhaps I will stay long term.Do you really think sos would be saying to jack do your absolute best and drive your draft price up?.Sos would be wanting to get any player for unders including his boy.

 

[ferrisb]

I think there is real culture value in having SOSOS on the list (if he is good enough). And not in a 'put him in front of the cameras, sign up more members' way.

I grew up in the SOS era and my dad would tell me stories of Serge's exploits. It was a small part of why I took the effort to look into the club history. Growing up talking to my dad about the old days was probably a contributing factor to me becoming a passionate blues fan.

I look forward to the days when my young daughters are old enough for me to tell them about the exploits of SOSOS's dad - all gangly arms and goofy running style but a champion who took on some of the games greatest goalkickers and regularly came out victorious.

I wouldn't leave Jack on the list if he isn't good enough. But geez I'll be cheering extra hard for him to make it because it would be damn special if he did!

 

[jimsta10]

Its all about a personal development and their ability to learn. There are short term investment players that are naturally gifted with no willingness to learn or put in the hard yards. But then there are players like Dylan Buckley who was a high draft pick that worked his arse off just to get a game. Take your pick...

 

[ferrisb]

Its all about a personal development and their ability to learn. There are short term investment players that are naturally gifted with no willingness to learn or put in the hard yards. But then there are players like Dylan Buckley who was a high draft pick that worked his arse off just to get a game. Take your pick...

One advantage of father son picks is that you should have better insight into character compared to some 17yo kid playing in the WAFL that you have interviewed twice...

Not saying f/s picks would have better character, but you would get more opportunity to get a read on their drive levels - good or bad.