Banter Carlton is better in 2024. Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 3

[Corn Cobbers]

At least the Eagles know what it takes to build a list to contend for a premiership in the modern era.

Absolutely

Not sure their fans share that sentiment at this particular moment in time though

 

[CarmenSandiego]

I'm still waiting to hear from Carlton supporters as to who their club is targeting with Pick 4, who will undoubtedly be a better player that picks 12 and 14 combined?

Or, Pick 12 and next year's first and second round picks...

Does this bring back memories of the Liam Stocker trade for anyone?

Yes, yes, we understand Collingwood fans don't value or understand the draft.

No need to amplify your stupidity.

 

[Fadge]

Yes, yes, we understand Collingwood fans don't value or understand the draft.

No need to amplify your stupidity.

So, no answer?

 

[Stan Van Gundy]

Absolutely

Not sure their fans share that sentiment at this particular moment in time though
View attachment 2142247

Just FYI, the top post is a well known copypasta. I've seen that exact paragraph posted numerous times for different sports teams. Doubt the person who posted either of these messages are actually Eagles fans.

 

[Fadge]

Just FYI, the top post is a well known copypasta. I've seen that exact paragraph posted numerous times for different sports teams. Doubt the person who posted either of these messages are actually Eagles fans.

Hang on....

Are you trying to tell us Carlton fans aren't doing any research before spreading fake news?

If you read through this thread, it is somewhat of a trend...

 

[CarmenSandiego]

So, no answer?

What do you want to know? Who we're targeting with pick 4?

How tf should I know? Why would Carlton publicize that? Yeah let's just show our cards to our 17 other competitors for absolutely no benefit whatsoever, except to please fudge.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

I'm still waiting to hear from Carlton supporters as to who their club is targeting with Pick 4, who will undoubtedly be a better player that picks 12 and 14 combined?

Or, Pick 12 and next year's first and second round picks...

Does this bring back memories of the Liam Stocker trade for anyone?

I've asked ChatGPT to sort it out for you.

I asked it to crunch the probability of a Pick #3 to play in a Premiership vs. a pick #12 & a pick #14.

The likelihood of playing in a premiership varies significantly based on several factors, including the player's talent, the team's performance, and their position in the draft. Here's an analysis based on historical data:

Scenario 1: One player at Pick #3​

Players drafted at Pick #3 generally have a higher chance of playing in a premiership because they are often more talented and join more competitive teams. The probability of a Pick #3 player being part of a premiership team is approximately 40-50%.

Scenario 2: Two players at Pick #12 and Pick #14​

• The likelihood of a player at Pick #12 playing in a premiership is around 20-30%.
• The likelihood of a player at Pick #14 playing in a premiership is about 15-25%.

To calculate the probability of at least one of the two players (Pick #12 and Pick #14) being part of a premiership team, we again use the complementary probability:

Probability of neither Pick #12 nor Pick #14 playing in a premiership:​

• Probability of Pick #12 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.25=0.751 - 0.25 = 0.751−0.25=0.75 (assuming 25% likelihood).
• Probability of Pick #14 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.20=0.801 - 0.20 = 0.801−0.20=0.80 (assuming 20% likelihood).

The probability of neither player reaching a premiership is:0.75×0.80=0.600.75 \times 0.80 = 0.600.75×0.80=0.60

So, the probability of at least one player (either Pick #12 or Pick #14) playing in a premiership is:1 - 0.60 = 0.40 or 40%

Conclusion:​

• Pick #3: 40-50% chance of playing in a premiership.
• Picks #12 and #14 (combined): ~40% chance of at least one player playing in a premiership.

In this case, taking a player at Pick #3 gives you a slightly better probability of having that player be part of a premiership team than the combined chances of two players at Picks #12 and #14.

Such a shame AI has ruined any mafs talents you've worked so hard on.

 

[Fadge]

What do you want to know? Who we're targeting with pick 4?

How tf should I know? Why would Carlton publicize that? Yeah let's just show our cards to our 17 other competitors for absolutely no benefit whatsoever, except to please fudge.

But if there was a standout (or standouts) at pick 4, that is a great fit for Carlton, and significantly better than the two players Carlton could pick at 12 and 14, we'd know about it.

But we don't know about it, because there's not...

 

[Fadge]

Eagles fans are going ape-shit

Cmon Pies lift and get Houston

Seems Pies have lifted...

 

[Fadge]

I've asked ChatGPT to sort it out for you.

I asked it to crunch the probability of a Pick #3 to play in a Premiership vs. a pick #12 & a pick #14.

The likelihood of playing in a premiership varies significantly based on several factors, including the player's talent, the team's performance, and their position in the draft. Here's an analysis based on historical data:

Scenario 1: One player at Pick #3​

Players drafted at Pick #3 generally have a higher chance of playing in a premiership because they are often more talented and join more competitive teams. The probability of a Pick #3 player being part of a premiership team is approximately 40-50%.

Scenario 2: Two players at Pick #12 and Pick #14​

• The likelihood of a player at Pick #12 playing in a premiership is around 20-30%.
• The likelihood of a player at Pick #14 playing in a premiership is about 15-25%.

To calculate the probability of at least one of the two players (Pick #12 and Pick #14) being part of a premiership team, we again use the complementary probability:

Probability of neither Pick #12 nor Pick #14 playing in a premiership:​

• Probability of Pick #12 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.25=0.751 - 0.25 = 0.751−0.25=0.75 (assuming 25% likelihood).
• Probability of Pick #14 not playing in a premiership: 1−0.20=0.801 - 0.20 = 0.801−0.20=0.80 (assuming 20% likelihood).

The probability of neither player reaching a premiership is:0.75×0.80=0.600.75 \times 0.80 = 0.600.75×0.80=0.60

So, the probability of at least one player (either Pick #12 or Pick #14) playing in a premiership is:1 - 0.60 = 0.40 or 40%

Conclusion:​

• Pick #3: 40-50% chance of playing in a premiership.
• Picks #12 and #14 (combined): ~40% chance of at least one player playing in a premiership.

In this case, taking a player at Pick #3 gives you a slightly better probability of having that player be part of a premiership team than the combined chances of two players at Picks #12 and #14.

Such a shame AI has ruined any mafs talents you've worked so hard on.

Oh, ChatGPT...

Did ChatGPT take into consideration the evenness at the top end of this year's draft?

Because that's a pretty important input to the assessment.

 

[Do_Beta_Rapport]

How did ol’ Leppa go today, poor guy.

At least he’s got Membrey to hang his hat on .

Landed Houston.

Perryman a week or two back.

A couple of immediate best 23 players.

 

[Fadge]

Landed Houston.

Perryman a week or two back.

A couple of immediate best 23 players.

One will be our second best player.

The other will play the Tom Mitchell/Taylor Adams role that will enable Daicos to play his more dangerous and more natural role as an outside midfielder.

Astute trading again by the most successful club in the history of the game, setting us up to put ourselves in a position to contend for the flag for the next handful of years.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Landed Houston.

Perryman a week or two back.

A couple of immediate best 23 players.

Houston a great get.

Renting the farm now

 

[CarmenSandiego]

But if there was a standout (or standouts) at pick 4, that is a great fit for Carlton, and significantly better than the two players Carlton could pick at 12 and 14, we'd know about it.

But we don't know about it, because there's not...

Oh, we'd know about it, but you'd just find a way to try and discredit it.

There are standouts, though btw.

Finn O'Sullivan
Jagga Smith
Sid Draper

 

[CarmenSandiego]

One will be our second best player.

The other will play the Tom Mitchell/Taylor Adams role that will enable Daicos to play his more dangerous and more natural role as an outside midfielder.

Astute trading again by the most successful club in the history of the game, setting us up to put ourselves in a position to contend for the flag for the next handful of years.

I thought Port weren't willing to deal with Collingwood as they were scared of strengthening their rivals?

As Cornes and Lyon have pointed out the primary reason Port withdrew from the proposed trade was to avoid handing Houston over to a legitimate premiership contender.

Thems the brakes when you're a powerhouse.

 

[Fadge]

I thought Port weren't willing to deal with Collingwood as they were scared of strengthening their rivals?

Powerhouse clubs find a way to make shite happen.

Looking forward to hearing Garry and Kane lose their shite on SEN tomorrow morning.

 

[carlton_99]

I'm still waiting to hear from Carlton supporters as to who their club is targeting with Pick 4, who will undoubtedly be a better player that picks 12 and 14 combined?

Or, Pick 12 and next year's first and second round picks...

Does this bring back memories of the Liam Stocker trade for anyone?

Are you expecting a clairvoyant from the Carlton list management team to reply to you or something?

 

[Fadge]

Oh, we'd know about it, but you'd just find a way to try and discredit it.

There are standouts, though btw.

Finn O'Sullivan
Jagga Smith
Sid Draper

None of them are Harley Reid, Harry Sheezel or Nick Daicos...

 

[carlton_99]

I thought Port weren't willing to deal with Collingwood as they were scared of strengthening their rivals?

This has to be the funniest thing I have ever heard in this thread and that's saying a lot.

 

[Robertio]

One will be our second best player.

The other will play the Tom Mitchell/Taylor Adams role that will enable Daicos to play his more dangerous and more natural role as an outside midfielder.

Astute trading again by the most successful club in the history of the game, setting us up to put ourselves in a position to contend for the flag for the next handful of years.

You want to hope you get a flag in the next two years, you sold the farm again, no draft picks again next year with a F/S expected to go in the top 5, idiotic. Tassie and the cliff coming at the same time.

 

[Robertio]

None of them are Harley Reid, Harry Sheezel or Nick Daicos...

All better.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

None of them are Harley Reid, Harry Sheezel or Nick Daicos...

You don't even watch games outside of your own club, I'd be absolutely shocked if you've watched a minute of the Juniors.

 

[Fadge]

You want to hope you get a flag in the next two years, you sold the farm again, no draft picks again next year with a F/S expected to go in the top 5, idiotic. Tassie and the cliff coming at the same time.

Oh, so we're not falling off a cliff this year, it's now been extended for two years?

Phew! That's a relief!

 

[CarmenSandiego]

You want to hope you get a flag in the next two years, you sold the farm again, no draft picks again next year with a F/S expected to go in the top 5, idiotic. Tassie and the cliff coming at the same time.

It's a 1-year window.

They have like 9 players 32 or over in their best 22 next year. Pendles & Sidey will be gone end of 2025 - two huge spiritual leaders that are impossible to replace in the space of 12-24 months. Other guys like Elliott, Cox, Howe et al will either also be gone or seriously on their last legs.

No picks to trade with or players with currency to rebuild on the run, only 1 F/S coming in - unsure about NGA players?

They have to improve from 9th to top 4, then hope everything goes right to win the whole thing, then an almighty cliff is coming. Anything less than a flag is a disaster.

 

[Fadge]

You don't even watch games outside of your own club, I'd be absolutely shocked if you've watched a minute of the Juniors.

You'd be wrong, on both counts.