List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[Arr0w]

Thinking progressive clubs will find it hard not to leave a spot for a mid year draft window given the likelihood of some hidden gems following the season's non event.

I agree, but that is still my wishlist when it comes to needs

If I had to drop one, it would be the crumbing/small forward

 

[Eiffel 65]

Poulter is exactly what we need to deliver to the fwd line. Whatever it takes, I’m in!

He certainly has some really appealing attributes.

Can't help but feel like we need a different type of midfielder though, but wouldn't be the worst option if available.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Consider me naive, is #31 as high a pick as we can get in this draft??

Tks.

 

[Coona Blues]

I agree, but that is still my wishlist when it comes to needs

If I had to drop one, it would be the crumbing/small forward

Wouldn't have a problem with that. If Dow and Stocker (or Kemp) come on in the midfield, our huge investment in Williams may just alter to the most expensive small forward in the game. Most on here don't watch too much of GWS. In small stints as a small forward, Williams is absolutely elite and he could easily move there.

 

[murphster]

We may take Walsh if he's there late, but the rucks we have are already very young. 21 yo TDK and 24 yo Pittonet.
In the normal course of things you'd say that both these guys still have some way to get to their best. Adding a project ruck.....? I don't know.
I just doesn't seem to be the way we'd go.......but we'll see.

I just wish we could get our hands on Nick Cox.....although the earring takes off 5% value

Can’t we forge an overseas birth certificate for Cox’s mother and add him to the NGA god knows we are owed it, stupid system.

 

[Jeremias]

Consider me naive, is #31 as high a pick as we can get in this draft??

Tks.

High as in low or high as in high?

 

[Stig O'Hara]

High as in low or high as in high?

Can we do the points/live trading thing and move up the order?

 

[Stamos]

Can we do the points/live trading thing and move up the order?

Yes, if someone will trade with us

 

[The Greek Freak]

Nik Cox more likely to slide into our trading range but both Essendon and GWS would be crazy not to snap up one each.

Think Reid could possibly make it just outside the top 10.

 

[The Greek Freak]

The entire lead up to this draft smacks of misdirection. I am putting more stock in to the Teague interview than most of the scuttlebutt I have heard.

While I was surprised he did not mention a project ruck, it is not unthinkable that they have decided to back the two youngsters with Levi's back up. Was interesting that he stated Harry as being a genuine candidate for ruck minutes. Smacks a little of think tank summary, with list reductions it is feasible we will wait to add a back up. (Perhaps why Moore was rethink to train on list)

His first mentioned need was for KPD developing depth followed by small forward and "always" looking to add midfield depth. Talk of Wehr just doesn't make sense, Poulter as a prime target also hard to fathom as unlikely to reach our pick. Durdin is feasible as fills the small forward/midfield description, however probably lacking the x-factor of a Winder. Unless we are targeting a smokey KPP, it suggests we will want to trade up to have a chance at Reid or Cox, however that might be impossible.

I have stated a couple of times in the lead up, and will reiterate, I am intrigued. We pride ourselves on being proactive, so a bold move will not surprise. This conservative old fella would not be aggravated by us maintaining our picks and taking best fit available, (small forward/ruck) but see it less likely. 1 more sleep.

Heard a few things yesterday alluding to just that! Looking to trade up for Reid/Cox. Would need pick 10-15 for whichever one gets through though. Think we'd need to move our future first which I wouldn't be dead against.

 

[Jeremias]

Can we do the points/live trading thing and move up the order?

Yep, we sure can.

 

[JustaBattler]

I have learned in recent times not to look at the number when assessing "youth". We are of similar vintage so you will understand my assertion that the majority of kids developed quicker in bygone years. The odd kid is totally focussed (ala Walsh) these days and combine work ethic and the benefits of sports science advances to maximise their performance. I have "issues" with the myriad of slow burn kids like Dow that take multiple years in a professionalenvironment to get close to their potential. I/we grew up with every daylight hour spent kicking in the park, the school yard, the street, wherever we could while today's kids spend many or most of those hours on entertainment technology or social media. Key position/rucks aside, I struggle to comprehend how so many are not ready to go in their first year or two.

TDK seems a year of "seasoning" short of assuming the mantle week in week out, however Pitto is at break out stage. A combination of the two with a degree of alternation in tandem with Levi (or Harry) will be adequate, if not ideal. As I have said before, at very least post Levi we will need another ruck. I prescribe to the develop your own school rather than the journeyman back up or middle of the road trade in types. No secret, I want young Henry, but can understand a
line of thinking to pass him over. (still pushing the Josh Cripps post ACL gamble bandwagon. Seems impractical, but must have suitors to nominate for the draft)

I've got strong views on this stuff ...

Schoolboy football is schoolboy football - the filtering process that goes in on teenage years leading up to draft is merely ticking the box re athletic ability with a light dose of actual football potential thrown in. For every freakish kid that can come in and play AFL football for a full season and impact consistently - there are 99 others who don't have the developed stamina/football brain/match skills and most importantly developed size to compete. The draft - ex the easy top 5 or 6 picks is a lottery because the kids are still developing physiclly and mentally. The draftees come in having been able to demonstrate relatively easy ability against other kids and all of a sudden have to play against seasoned professionals.

On top of all that - where as it is not unusual in rugby codes to see young players come in and hold their own because of pure physical 'inheritance' - AFL is both a hard running AND high skill game also requiring 360 degree awareness - as oppossed to other contact sports/codes which are relatively tunell vision straight line cognitive challenges.

I would say that AFL is the benchmark test of all round athletes and skill as far as football codes go and I am a rugby bloke - we are somewhat disapointed with Dow and LoB's progress (so far) only because they are top10 picks - they were top10 because of the athletic attributes they displayed in TAC - Dow for burst and LoB for endurance - no surprises to see two blokes with midfield credentials struggling to match it with developed players for midfield duties in their early years.

It is all on them (and others) to lift - and that is a mind game - that is where real mongrel kicks in - they have to want it more than the other blokes they are competing aginst on the list - and then they have to show form on field. The better the list becomes - the bigger the ask and harder the challenge.

This is why quite often lower draft picks outshine higher draft picks over time - natural endurance and strength evens out with training and then the skill factor kicks in - some continue to develop it and some peak at high school levels and flat line - because that is all they've got to give.

Carlton is only just beginning to enjoy a decent list in terms of depth and all that comes with that. Over the last couple of decades high draft picks ( any draft pick really) was required to be the next big thing - immediately. But this expectation based on hope knocking on faith's door was always a low percentage play - and that is exactly how it all panned out.

We are in a very good place now - compared to the past.

 

[The Greek Freak]

I can't get my head around taking a young ruck in the draft. Just don't see a need for it this year at all.

Pittonet and TDK will serve us well next year with Casboult as backup. We've not seen it yet but perhaps Harry might also be in line for some relief duties from time to time.

If we really think we need extra cover in that position then an experienced ruck is the way to go.

Trade up for Reid and you get both. Kpd who can ruck

 

[Eiffel 65]

So if we draft them in the 30s or 40s you'll be disappointed because Knightmare reckons both could go late?

Do I really need to tell you why that's a ridiculous way of looking at things?

How much have you seen of both?

You're continuously making assumptions here, why stop now?

I'm not disappointed because Knightmare reckons they could go late. I'll be disappointed if we don't use this golden opportunity to try and grab a steal of the draft. We'll probably never get an opportunity like this again where half the draft are unsighted. We have two mid range picks, which puts us in a perfect position to grab someone who could have bolted into the first round of the draft had the VIC kids played. This could include a player with solid form who grew 5-10cm over the break, or even someone who finished the backend of last year with a rush. There's no pressure on these picks. It's the perfect opportunity to take a risk on someone with a high ceiling.

I've seen enough of Rowe to know he doesn't apply any defensive pressure as a small forward. If we're playing three tall forwards, defensive pressure is a non-negotiable. All players will have deficiencies, however, that's not a deficiency I want in a mature age prospect. It's a bit different for U18 players lacking defensive pressure in their game because junior footy is about showcasing talent. This is not the case for mature age prospects running around in the VFL, SANFL and WAFL.

Rowe's defensive deficiencies will probably mean he's developing in the VFL next year too. What's the point of drafting mature age prospects if they're going to spend time developing in the reserves. That defeats the purpose of drafting mature age prospects to begin with.

As for Wehr, the reality is he's got a very light frame and may need a preseason or two before his body is ready for AFL. Keep in mind that this was his first season of SANFL league too. Prior to 2020, he had only been playing SANFL reserves. Knowing this, can you seriously draft this guy with confidence in the second round? How do you know he didn't just have a few matches good matches being a no-name player going under the radar. It's a lot harder to perform when people know who you are, they know your game and they put more time into stopping you. This is why people often refer to draftees having the "second year blues." It's not because they've gone backwards or gotten worse, it's because opposition clubs have more data on the player and are able to put more time into stopping them.

And please tell my why the way I'm looking at things is so ridiculous.

 

[The Greek Freak]

Consider me naive, is #31 as high a pick as we can get in this draft??

Tks.

I don't think so. Come draft night I'm pretty sure we've moved up the order

 

[Eiffel 65]

Consider me naive, is #31 as high a pick as we can get in this draft??

Tks.

We'd be a chance of trading up to Hawthorn's pick 24 should a bid for Downie come before that selection.

Another option that appears likely is trading up for Richmond's first rounder, however, this may require futures involved in the trade. I don't think this is something we should entertain given the speculative nature of this draft. Next years draft will be a lot deeper and have more certainty with junior footy being played.

 

[zeeCFC]

Riley Beveridge of AFL.com says we may look to move into the 20s and take advantage of a likely Hawks/North trade

 

[The Greek Freak]

We'd be a chance of trading up to Hawthorn's pick 24 should a bid for Downie come before that selection.

Another option that appears likely is trading up for Richmond's first rounder, however, this may require futures involved in the trade. I don't think this is something we should entertain given the speculative nature of this draft. Next years draft will be a lot deeper and have more certainty with junior footy being played.

If rumours are true pick 24 might go to North with 4 for pick 2. I'd entertain a future first for Richmond's pick only if Reid was still there. Would want something coming back too but not this year.

 

[Arr0w]

Wouldn't have a problem with that. If Dow and Stocker (or Kemp) come on in the midfield, our huge investment in Williams may just alter to the most expensive small forward in the game. Most on here don't watch too much of GWS. In small stints as a small forward, Williams is absolutely elite and he could easily move there.

Yeap

Has spent stints there and has been a handful

Expecting Williams and Martin to be rotating with each other

 

[gandaal]

Just looking at Twomeys phantom and I found one thing strange.

Why would Essendon bid for Campbell with their third pick and not their first? It makes zero sense to me. Surely they'd want to put as much pressure on Sydney as possible, and even if they rate Reid and Bruhn higher they'd still get them with the next few picks regardless.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Another option that appears likely is trading up for Richmond's first rounder, however, this may require futures involved in the trade. I don't think this is something we should entertain given the speculative nature of this draft. Next years draft will be a lot deeper and have

Something like 31 or 38 + our future first
For 17 and their future first?
You'd only do it once you know what you're getting for 17.

 

[Eiffel 65]

Something like 31 or 38 + our future first
For 17 and their future first?
You'd only do it once you know what you're getting for 17.

They're reportedly trying to swap their first for a future first, so I don't think they'll be offloading their future first.

 

[DrTrain]

I haven’t really followed draft prospects in the past but one common trend is that top end draft picks tend to be born in the first half of the year. As we only have picks in the 30’s selecting the best available player born in the second half of the year might be a fantastic option to get a solid player with huge upside.

 

[TheKITC]

Riley Beveridge of AFL.com says we may look to move into the 20s and take advantage of a likely Hawks/North trade

At what cost I wonder Zee? Hoping the club doesn't slice big into next years picks or at all really, just my 2c though.

As for the project ruck talks, I'm happy either way on this one. If there is one we see merit in this year, go for it. But if there isn't one, I'd rather just go with what we have rather than commit a two year contract. TDK and Pitto obviously to carry the bulk of it under the latter scenario. Casboult is more than capable if we have some bad luck with injuries, McKay a bit of a break glass in emergency and Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

could probably do some work there if the injury apocalypse happened. We could also do a bit of a Geelong a take a mature ruck that's ready physically as a rookie for a season or two maybe ie. Corey Gault, Jackson Trengove

8

Jackson Trengove

Age

34

Ht

197cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.5

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

7.2

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

167.1

3star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

4.0

5star

MG

16.0

1star

D

9.8

3star

K

2.6

1star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

3.4

5star

etc.

 

[Jeremias]

I'm not disappointed because Knightmare reckons they could go late.

Really? So then why even mention him or his thoughts on those two players in particular?

I've seen enough of Rowe to know he doesn't apply any defensive pressure as a small forward.

And how much would that be?

Rowe's defensive deficiencies will probably mean he's developing in the VFL next year too. What's the point of drafting mature age prospects if they're going to spend time developing in the reserves. That defeats the purpose of drafting mature age prospects to begin with.

First we're drafting him with a pick in the 30s, now he's exclusively playing VFL football in 2022.

What next?

There are far too many assumptions going on here for this to be taken seriously.

As for Wehr, the reality is he's got a very light frame and may need a preseason or two before his body is ready for AFL.

This isn't a reality.

The reality is he isn't in the AFL system yet and for all we know may never be.

Knowing this, can you seriously draft this guy with confidence in the second round? How do you know he didn't just have a few matches good matches being a no-name player going under the radar. It's a lot harder to perform when people know who you are, they know your game and they put more time into stopping you. This is why people often refer to draftees having the "second year blues." It's not because they've gone backwards or gotten worse, it's because opposition clubs have more data on the player and are able to put more time into stopping them.

I'm not drafting the guy.

I have confidence that our recruiting staff will have done their due diligence on these prospects.

They are not infallible but I'm certainly not willing to criticise them or throw out absurd childish comments like 'they're the Brendon Bolton' of recruiters if I disagreed with their approach.

And I'm certainly not willing to be critical of them before the fact as some seem to be doing.

Second year blues? Hardly relevant to this discussion, though I can assure you it's a lot harder for any draftee to reproduce their form in the top flight. Not exactly ground breaking stuff there.

And please tell my why the way I'm looking at things is so ridiculous.

This was in response to you referencing Knightmare's as the basis of your argument, which you've since tried to clarify. That should have been obvious, so too the reason why it's ridiculous.