Unofficial Preview Changes & discussion v the Hawks @ MCG after our Sabbatical.

[buttermuffs]

Fagan said in his post-game pressa - "You look at all the statistics, 32 forward-half turnovers to 16, you probably should win when you do that. Sixty-six inside 50s to 47, it's the same. There were so many statistics. If you watch one of our games, (when) we get those sorts of numbers, we usually win."

That's true. But it's not a new problem.

The last 3 weeks we have been totally dominant in inside 50s and not capitalising. Essendon it was 69-39. Gold Coast it was 60-39. Late goals in those games papered over some cracks. Adelaide we again dominated 66-47 but this time against a better side we finally got the wake-up call.

We won both those games by 40+ though? Both those late runs in those games came from converting our shots.


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[dlanod]

We're currently the 2nd best for points scored and 6th for points conceded

I think what it does do is keep our points conceded down which is what we struggle with

It also opens us up for points on the counter attack which any team struggles with, but we've seen continued issues for years with our one paced defense. If you've got Rachele and Rankine heading into an empty forward line, we're only going to cover one of them at best.

 

[twhowler]

We won both those games by 40+ though? Both those late runs in those games came from converting our shots.


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Both games at the gabba against lesser opposition. We are so good there it must wear teams down.

Yes converting shots helped in those games and would have in this game. Worth noting though that v crows the expected score had us winning by 0.3 points from expected score, so if we converted as expected it's a draw or a one point win from 66-47 inside 50s. That says to me it's not just kicking.

Against Gold Coast we had total dominance for a 2 goal lead at 3qt. Essendon 17 points at 3qt. We have been keeping sides in it through inefficiency. Now it's cost us a win.

 

[On the quiet]

I think most agree that Gunston will not miss against the Hawkes, but I think we should give Fullarton at least a few games, so we can determine if, and how much he has improved, and therefore whether to extend him moving forward. I have posted a few times there is a big difference between the quality of opponents in the VFL to most AFL teams, but with Joe and Hippy, Tom would probably be matched up on the third tall defender, think it is worth managing Jack for a few games, and giving Tom a final run at it.

 

[Tom14]

It also opens us up for points on the counter attack which any team struggles with, but we've seen continued issues for years with our one paced defense. If you've got Rachele and Rankine heading into an empty forward line, we're only going to cover one of them at best.

We also don't have the speed in the team/ball movement to concede territory and hit teams on the counter/fast break. Issue for us yesterday beyond conversion was not turning our turnovers into quality looks at goals.

On the other hand we should have had two extra shots from 15m directly in frount out if the same rulings for marks were being paid at each end...

 

[StevoJenkins]

Didn't watch yesterday's game, but I had a mate give me the highlights.
Kind of turned out like I thought it would and what I had raised previously.

Ideally the changes would be the following for the rest of the season:
In: Fort/Fullteron, Lohman/Dev, Prior
Out: Gunston, Zorko, Rich

• It's about time Gunston got taken out. Fort is a better contested mark and Fullerton is kicking bags most weeks. Gunston is slow, like really slow. Put a forward in there who can take a mark and at least try and put a body on an opponent. Both of these guys can play three positions on the ground as well. Even Prior could be in this spot. Only plus I can think of at this rate for Gunston is his positioning and link up play, but if you want that, play him in defence for the whole game.
• Dev or Kai depending on what you want to replace in Zorko. Do you want a more defensive mid or a small forward? Really depends on the team.
• Prior for Rich, even though I love what Rich brings to the team, Michael or Prior could do this role now. Coleman has replaced Rich's penetrating kick and it's time someone else to get a shot.

Ultimately, I don't see any of these changes made unless there are injuries. The match committee (yes, not naming Fagan directly) won't make these changes unless there is a gaping hole in the game plan identified during the bye.

 

[buttermuffs]

Both games at the gabba against lesser opposition. We are so good there it must wear teams down.

Yes converting shots helped in those games and would have in this game. Worth noting though that v crows the expected score had us winning by 0.3 points from expected score, so if we converted as expected it's a draw or a one point win from 66-47 inside 50s. That says to me it's not just kicking.

Against Gold Coast we had total dominance for a 2 goal lead at 3qt. Essendon 17 points at 3qt. We have been keeping sides in it through inefficiency. Now it's cost us a win.

I get what you’re saying there. Other expected scores had us losing as well despite all of it. Our second quarter skills probably killed us equally with our third quarter misses and those turnover goals from basic kicking errors cost us and doesn’t show up on the expected score sheet nor related to our inside fifty efficiency.

Our kicking efficiency in the second was 33% which apparently is our worst for a quarter this season. Crows were 61% in comparison.

I feel like if we scored 4.6 that quarter the fourth plays out a lot different. Every chance to carry some momentum was continually crushed every time we missed and then destroyed when Adelaide kicked their late goals in the term.

It rocked Adelaide earlier this year playing Collingwood and I also think Collingwood were rocked when they kept missing in the last against us. I think any team is susceptible to it.

Regardless, I do actually think there’s merit to what you’re saying. I think I’m just hoping the players and coaches are still going to work on it and come out firing after the bye.


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[twhowler]

I get what you’re saying there. Other expected scores had us losing as well despite all of it. Our second quarter skills probably killed us equally with our third quarter misses and those turnover goals from basic kicking errors cost us and doesn’t show up on the expected score sheet nor related to our inside fifty efficiency.

Our kicking efficiency in the second was 33% which apparently is our worst for a quarter this season. Crows were 61% in comparison.

I feel like if we scored 4.6 that quarter the fourth plays out a lot different. Every chance to carry some momentum was continually crushed every time we missed and then destroyed when Adelaide kicked their late goals in the term.

It rocked Adelaide earlier this year playing Collingwood and I also think Collingwood were rocked when they kept missing in the last against us. I think any team is susceptible to it.

Regardless, I do actually think there’s merit to what you’re saying. I think I’m just hoping the players and coaches are still going to work on it and come out firing after the bye.


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Agree momentum can be anything

We could easily have won with straighter kicking

Equally our inefficient play was going to catch up eventually

 

[M Malice]

If we go with all 4 of Payne, Andrews, Gardiner and Lester in the back line I think my head will explode.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Fagan just might get this wrong again you know. This is defence was flying before Payne was injured and Fagan rushed Gardiner and Rich back into the side.

FB: Starcevich Payne Lester
HB: McKenna Andrews Coleman

On the interchange: Wilmot

As much as he has been a Champion of the Club, Rich had no defensive game left whatsoever and he slows us down incredibly when taking the kick outs. He is slow, doesn’t tackle and doesn’t apply pressure. Finally, Lester, Coleman and McKenna are all better options when it comes to transitioning the ball out of defence.

 

[p4p1]

Starcevich did have a bad game. Terrible clanger led to a goal and Rankine beat him on the night, but he battled away all game and put physical pressure on. In the wet, tackling is important and so are pressure acts.

He is also playing on the best small-mid forwards every week as well. It's not an easy job. Sometimes they can get off the chain a bit, we see Charlie do it and have had Linc and Bails do it at different times as well. Playing as an actual defender (difference between playing in defence and playing as a defender IMO) is a hard and thankless job.

 

[p4p1]

Some stats to consider
View attachment 1699269

View attachment 1699270
When looking at defence tonight, especially as it was wet, people need to look at Tackles and Pressure Acts when judging players and their relative contributions. Rich, had a defensive shocker with Zero tackles and six pressure acts. Gardiner had two tackles and seven pressure acts. Andrews had zero tackles and nine pressure acts. Starcevich had four tackles and ten pressure acts. Coleman had one tackle and nine pressure acts. McKenna had three tackles and fourteen pressure acts. Lester had four tackles and fourteen pressure acts.

Those of us who say Rich is cooked do so because he really doesn’t have a defensive game anymore. Gardiner was elevated to the Seniors after two games in the Ressies and didn’t bring much tonight. I think Andrews had his career worst game, but if people can nominate a worse one, I will listen. McKenna and Lester were the pick of the defensive team tonight, because they scrap and get to contests and are hard at it.

Disagree. I though Kiddy was our best defender yesterday. Yes he made that howler but otherwise he was very solid all around and his first touch at a time where everyone else in the team had the fumbles probably saved as a few goals as well.

 

[martinson]

I actually think if you take Richy's two blues out he was ok. He gets beaten on transition against speedy lineups and yesterday was an extreme case because we pushed up so far that once the ball was out not even Speedy Gonzales would've had much hope. Plus he was underdone.

I'm not for tossing him out just yet and I think there are games or ways during games where he could still be a valuable player.

But I don't want to keep playing him indiscriminately if there was someone better because time's just about up. Once time's up on players the one thing that really stands out if they don't have it is lack of pace. Zorko can still cut the mustard in that regard . Gunston's just completely done barring a miracle . Gardiner ,good and all as he is defensively is on watch. And Lester gets found out for pace when he as to turn around. If we have them all in we've got no hope against good opposition in a final.

 

[p4p1]

The speed of game has gone past Rich and Gunston.

Time to go with a smaller, more dynamic forward line. Lohmann should get first crack at it. Rayner to play the third tall role.

Wilmot takes Rich's position permanently.


I'm another who believes McCluggage should be outside playing wing, and we should be looking to use our wings more.

When one of our wingers is 6'4 and 92kgs or whatever he is but consistently outsizes his opponent, I would've thought he would be great to use as a bail out kick sometimes. Obviously wingers often push back deep into defence but I have always had the thought that maybe we don't use Bez's physical assets to our advantage sometimes. Clugg obviously is miles better as a wingman and I don't think we need him in the middle anymore to make up for a lack of two way running. Especially if we brought Dev in who seems to have built his entire game on being a defensive mid.

 

[p4p1]

Not sure what to do with Rich. He’ll always hurt us on transition if the opposition doesn’t have a slow, small forward. Although in that clip Kingy showed all our defenders were trailing their opponents. We need all the good kicks we have in the team

Rich is now surrounded by at least 2 pretty good kicks in Kiddy and McKenna. They don't have the penetration that he is famous for but neither does he. Everywhere else around the ground other than (potentially) some positioning because of his experience they are better than him.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I am more concerned about the fact that Rich has no defensive game anymore. He can’t chase and he just doesn’t tackle. If you can believe it, he is a defender and this season he has laid 2 tackles in total. He is glacially slow, he is being carried in defense and he is keeping a player like Prior or Ah Chee out of the side.

Fagan needs to make the call.

 

[Sanchez365]

Gunston coming out is an issue, Fort and Fullerton would probably be fine just straight lining the ball, but getting them to work around Danniher and Hipwood, do they have the forward craft? Gunston should, but obviously he has been garbage so far this year, goal kicking average is down from 1.9 across his career to 1.1, a sizable dropoff.

I also get people wanting Rayner into that position, but I want him to be moving through the middle more then he is now. Moving him into Gunstons role would kill any chance of him getting midfield minutes really.

It does feel like we could afford to give someone else a shot, at least to see how they go. I want to see Robertson personally, but I also think Berry could be a good option as that 3rd tall. Because right now he isn't playing with the intensity he needs to be further up the ground.

 

[martinson]

When one of our wingers is 6'4 and 92kgs or whatever he is but consistently outsizes his opponent, I would've thought he would be great to use as a bail out kick sometimes. Obviously wingers often push back deep into defence but I have always had the thought that maybe we don't use Bez's physical assets to our advantage sometimes. Clugg obviously is miles better as a wingman and I don't think we need him in the middle anymore to make up for a lack of two way running. Especially if we brought Dev in who seems to have built his entire game on being a defensive mid.

One of the great advantages in footy since forever has been if you have a marking target on the wings. That's why I don't mind Ah Chee in that role . Berry not so much but at least he's big.

 

[p4p1]

Gunston coming out is an issue, Fort and Fullerton would probably be fine just straight lining the ball, but getting them to work around Danniher and Hipwood, do they have the forward craft? Gunston should, but obviously he has been garbage so far this year, goal kicking average is down from 1.9 across his career to 1.1, a sizable dropoff.

I also get people wanting Rayner into that position, but I want him to be moving through the middle more then he is now. Moving him into Gunstons role would kill any chance of him getting midfield minutes really.

It does feel like we could afford to give someone else a shot, at least to see how they go. I want to see Robertson personally, but I also think Berry could be a good option as that 3rd tall. Because right now he isn't playing with the intensity he needs to be further up the ground.

I don't know that we really need Cam to play a traditional third tall role. Personally I don't think so but he could be a marking target as required. As long as he is in the forward line when Joe or Hippy are on the bench then I think we could and would continue to role him through the middle.

 

[Nathan Barley]

(Former) captain stupid gets a week for eye gouging

 

[Tom14]

(Former) captain stupid gets a week for eye gouging

Sad to see he's passed on his penchant for dumb off the ball free kicks when things are going against us to the new co-captains.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Sad to see he's passed on his penchant for dumb off the ball free kicks when things are going against us to the new co-captains.

Amazing footballer but he's done some of the dumbest things I've ever seen on the footy field

Now he's an eye gouger

 

[martinson]

A week off against Hawthorn. That's cool ,chance for some else.

Bookmark this. Fages will keep playing Gunners until he has a half reasonable game and snags 3 or 4 and then make a point about how valuable he is to us in the presser.

The last missive was about us not honouring his leads. I looked back at the match and there weren't any.

 

[Son of Superboot]

(Former) captain stupid gets a week for eye gouging

Dev or Lohman to replace?

 

[buttermuffs]

Gunston coming out is an issue, Fort and Fullerton would probably be fine just straight lining the ball, but getting them to work around Danniher and Hipwood, do they have the forward craft? Gunston should, but obviously he has been garbage so far this year, goal kicking average is down from 1.9 across his career to 1.1, a sizable dropoff.

I also get people wanting Rayner into that position, but I want him to be moving through the middle more then he is now. Moving him into Gunstons role would kill any chance of him getting midfield minutes really.

It does feel like we could afford to give someone else a shot, at least to see how they go. I want to see Robertson personally, but I also think Berry could be a good option as that 3rd tall. Because right now he isn't playing with the intensity he needs to be further up the ground.

I’d be happy to take him out for two just to see how it goes with Lohmann or Fort. We don’t have to go into finals like that if it doesn’t work out but I think now is the time to see whether there’s a better option.


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