Opinion Changes for QF v Geelong

[Handyandy]

Surely SPP the sub

yeah i can see a real dirty, heavy game in the trenches where spp would shine. geelong have lots of big bodied mids who are fond of collecting the ball and taking the tackler on.

 

[Handyandy]

Whoever is gassed the most out of Duursma, Motlop, Amon or Bergman. These four should be on their bike every time there is a turnover, providing options down each wing. We wait for Geelong to setup defensively and we're going to lose every time.

Geelong's MO is to solidify fluid ball movement with ball retention that freezes out free-wheeling teams. The thing that has always countered Geelong's style is bringing the fire of hard ball and loose ball gets to the coal face and putting them under pressure and then explode out of the contest, which is how Melbourne ran them down.

The reason I want Pep as the sub is because I want him fresh when Selwood, Dangerfield and Guthrie are tired. Interestingly, in the past few rounds, Geelong has been giving key players under 70% TOG for matches after the bye:

vs Essendon - J Selwood 64% TOG, C Guthrie 66% TOG, B Parfitt 66% TOG, R Stanley 63% TOG
vs Carlton - B Parfitt 61% TOG
vs Fremantle - J Selwood 66% TOG, B Parfitt 61% TOG
vs Richmond - M O'Connor 67% TOG
vs North Melbourne - C Guthrie 62% TOG
vs GWS - P Dangerfield 9% TOG (injured)
vs St Kilda - M Holmes 60% TOG
vs Melbourne - J Selwood 64% TOG

Compared to Port:

vs Hawthorn - S Powell-Pepper 66% TOG
vs Melbourne - S Powell-Pepper 66% TOG, Z Butters 50% TOG
vs St Kilda - S Powell-Pepper 68% TOG
vs Collingwood - nil
vs GWS - nil
vs Adelaide - R Bonner 66% TOG
vs Carlton - S Lycett 49% TOG
vs Western Bulldogs - W Drew 64% TOG

Pep doesn't have the tank to last a full game - even when he’s been above 70% TOG it’s only ever been marginal. What he does have is burst speed and power that we can exploit against Geelong’s defence and secondary mid.

Cats would remember that they played us minus Lycett, Fantasia, Butters and Duursma and them plus Stewart, Tuohy and Duncan. Even if they rush Tuohy and Duncan back I’d still back us in to run them into the ground.

good tactical summary.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Leaning towards Clurey coming in... Insurance company for if Aliir/McKenzie don't work out.

Clurey starts on Cameron, McKenzie on Hawkins, Aliir loose/intercepter.

 

[Chokito]

Motlop cannot be dropped. He will go up a level v his old mob.

 

[Marmozet]

Might need to rewatch but didn't we have Burton on Dangerfield last year and it worked really well?

Ablett

 

[Astronema]

Drop Motlop and look forward to watching us struggle to move the ball from half back to half forward for an entire game.

 

[Visenfest]

I wouldn't drop Bergman. He'll be fine. He had a bad quarter against the Dogs and after that was fine. Not sure how anyone could come to the conclusion that he struggles under pressure. Has been great this year, and has played like a much more experienced player than he is.

 

[Chewy316]

We tried playing the 4 KPDs of Jonas, McKenzie, Clurey and Aliir just the once this year. It worked so well against Melbourne that we immediately put it in the rack and it hasn't been sighted since.

There's absolutely no way that we are going to suddenly be changing our defensive structure in such a way for the finals - not when our defensive setups have been some of the best in the league, and we currently have arguably the most in form KPD in the comp. We have 21 games this year using our current defensive system and a 17-4 W-L record during that time. I get we let Geelong off the leash last time we met, but I would also suggest that was more due to the quality of Geelong's inside 50 entries that came from our pathetic defensive pressure in midfield. Having Lycett back in ruck will no doubt help, and Ollie, Boak, Drew etc are playing a much stronger game now than they were 10 weeks ago when we played Geelong.

Change the matchups to fit the personnel currently in the team who have the runs on the board, but don't completely go taking out a small for a tall down back. We saw the ramifications of that earlier in the year and it doesn't not free up Aliir to be a floating sweeper, all it does is makes us too tall forcing us to rotate one of them (ie Aliir) out of there and into either the ruck or the forward line.

 

[Gryllis]

Will be interesting to see how teams use the sub in finals. As the season has gone on, nobody seems to worry about teams abusing it anymore and it's also more accepted to take a player off with a minor injury and have him play the next week, on the basis that you don't know how bad it is during the game.

Come finals I think we'll see more of that 'precautionary injury' sub, where they probably do know he's right to play but pretent to not be sure to bring on a fresh player in the 3rd or 4th if there hasn't been an injury. I'd be surprised if there are many unused finals subs.

 

[TeeKray]

Will be interesting to see how teams use the sub in finals. As the season has gone on, nobody seems to worry about teams abusing it anymore and it's also more accepted to take a player off with a minor injury and have him play the next week, on the basis that you don't know how bad it is during the game.

Come finals I think we'll see more of that 'precautionary injury' sub, where they probably do know he's right to play but pretent to not be sure to bring on a fresh player in the 3rd or 4th if there hasn't been an injury. I'd be surprised if there are many unused finals subs.

Lol, who would've thought this rule would end up being abused to the point where it's basically just an extra player to pull the trigger on when you feel like it.

 

[Del165198]

Drop Motlop and look forward to watching us struggle to move the ball from half back to half forward for an entire game.

I'm not sure what you think motlop offers but it isn't that.

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

I wouldn't drop Bergman. He'll be fine. He had a bad quarter against the Dogs and after that was fine. Not sure how anyone could come to the conclusion that he struggles under pressure. Has been great this year, and has played like a much more experienced player than he is.

He has played like a 50-100 game player most the year. Talk about dropping him is the silliest idea I've read here recently.

 

[Powertron]

Raz for Mitch and toss a coin of Mayes or SPP for the sub. If Raz doesn’t come up (possible given his history of portnight injuries) it’s SPP in the 22.

It’s not the time for any radical structural changes. We’ve been set on structure for a while and have been integrating players back into this as they become available.

 

[Rigs]

 

[PepeSilvia]

I'm not sure what you think motlop offers but it isn't that.

He’s a high half forward, that’s exactly what he does for us.

 

[Powerage]

Lol, who would've thought this rule would end up being abused to the point where it's basically just an extra player to pull the trigger on when you feel like it.

Well you do risk losing a player for 12 days or facing any of a number of charges if a club is found to be breaking the rule. IMO any club that says they took a player off for 'precautionary reasons' is flouting the rule unless it has changed since Mar 17, 2021.

The rule is:

"To be eligible for a medical substitution, the club doctor must decide that an injured player will be unable to play a game in the next 12 days...Club doctors must provide the AFL with a medical certificate on the first working day after the match as evidence the substituted player sustained the injury.​

​

Should a subbed-out player recover from an injury other than concussion before the next match, he may be granted to play provided his return is ticked off by the AFL Medical Officer.​

​

Any club found to be breaking the medical substitute rule can be sanctioned "for conduct unbecoming, or prejudicial to the interests or reputation of the AFL, or to bring the game of football into disrepute".​

""

 

[Gryllis]

We were pretty open about Lycett being a precaution a couple of weeks ago, and that was signed off as fine - he genuinely did cop a knock and looked in discomfort at the time, but the fact he came back on for a while suggested he was never in real danger of missing the next week. Other teams have done similar, and no hint of repercussions.

Hypothetically, if Motlop is having a stinker and we want to bring on a fresh SPP it's pretty easy to say he's reaggravated his ankle, and based on the precedents, that'll be fine.

Or commentators will suddenly start caring again now that it's finals.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Well done to you guys. Go all the way and win the flag these opportunities dont come around every year got to take these chances. I hope either you or Brisbane win it anyone but Melbourne or the Dogs. The dogs finally got called for what they throwing the ball around. Nice forward set up too Marshall, Dixing, Butters, Roze, Gray, Fantsia etc.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We were pretty open about Lycett being a precaution a couple of weeks ago, and that was signed off as fine - he genuinely did cop a knock and looked in discomfort at the time, but the fact he came back on for a while suggested he was never in real danger of missing the next week. Other teams have done similar, and no hint of repercussions.

Hypothetically, if Motlop is having a stinker and we want to bring on a fresh SPP it's pretty easy to say he's reaggravated his ankle, and based on the precedents, that'll be fine.

Or commentators will suddenly start caring again now that it's finals.

Just ****in strap an ice pack to somewhere on his leg or foot wherever the "injury" is and that shuts everybody up.

 

[Andre]

We tried playing the 4 KPDs of Jonas, McKenzie, Clurey and Aliir just the once this year. It worked so well against Melbourne that we immediately put it in the rack and it hasn't been sighted since.

There's absolutely no way that we are going to suddenly be changing our defensive structure in such a way for the finals - not when our defensive setups have been some of the best in the league, and we currently have arguably the most in form KPD in the comp. We have 21 games this year using our current defensive system and a 17-4 W-L record during that time. I get we let Geelong off the leash last time we met, but I would also suggest that was more due to the quality of Geelong's inside 50 entries that came from our pathetic defensive pressure in midfield. Having Lycett back in ruck will no doubt help, and Ollie, Boak, Drew etc are playing a much stronger game now than they were 10 weeks ago when we played Geelong.

Change the matchups to fit the personnel currently in the team who have the runs on the board, but don't completely go taking out a small for a tall down back. We saw the ramifications of that earlier in the year and it doesn't not free up Aliir to be a floating sweeper, all it does is makes us too tall forcing us to rotate one of them (ie Aliir) out of there and into either the ruck or the forward line.

Exactly. There's no point bringing Clurey in for anyone other than another KPD. He's a lockdown defender. If we're going to beat Geelong it's by running them off their feet. Playing into their strength of slow and steady by taking out a smaller defender who can push up the ground or a midfielder makes zero sense. If the ball's coming into Geelong's forward line repeatedly as our midfields being smashed it doesn't matter who we have back there, we're losing. Ensure we win the midfield first and foremost.

 

[OneGreatClub]

So Georgie might be available

 

[FishingRick04]

So Georgie might be available

Really, cramp?

 

[malcheski]

Really, cramp?

Someone mentioned earlier that young players, and especially explosive ones like Mitch, are yet to work out the difference between signalling and a strain. Also, he had work done on it before he was subbed out. If it was a legitimate strain/tear there isn't a hope in hell they'd be working it like that, which is why I was surprised post match they were saying 2-3 weeks.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Georgiades would be a massive in if he's not injured. Enormous given how important it is to limit their intercept markers.

 

[Chachi]

Leave it to the club to make the call but if there was any risk we must err on the side of caution.

I did remember thinking he didn't come straight off. When you do a hammy you know you've done one so maybe it was just cramp.