Prediction Changes for Round 8 vs Carlton

[mike123]

You're probably right, but how do we handle it when Darcy and Roughy have a spell on the bench? I certainly haven't noticed. Does everybody roll up a size to a bigger player? Eg. Darcy is playing on the KP1 and goes off - Roughy moves up to KPD1, Howe to KPD2, Langdon to 3rd tall. I'd assume that they must be doing something like that. Surely it would be less disruptive to just Darcy with Reid. Probably a big assumption that Reid can still do a good job at KPD.

I haven’t got the stats but you probably don’t notice becuase they don’t spend that much time on the bench.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I haven’t got the stats but you probably don’t notice becuase they don’t spend that much time on the bench.

Moore - 85 to 90 % gametime this year
Roughead - 80 to 90 % gametime this year

 

[sr36]

I wish I shared your optimism. This week we were sick of honourable losses and wanted to make a statement... but I think something might have gotten lost in translation this arvo...

Brad Scott may not be the best coach in the game, but he has our number, and it's not complicated. Everyone knows the umpires have put the whistle away, so you just hold and scrag Cripps, because there is no downside. Even if he gets the free, you get time to set up your defence. And most of the time, he won't get the free. Both options are much better than giving him the chance to win the ball at the clearance, especially from the centre bounce with the 6-6-6 thing.

It will start in the middle, and we need Kreuzer in there to compete against Grundy and your inside mids. None of our other options are tenable, and we need pressure in the middle of the ground because we don't have answers to (or opponents for) De Goey, Elliott or Stephenson - those guys could kick 10+.

Not only that, we now have to worry about the talls as well - I would have backed Weitering and Jones, but if Jones is in hospital tonight, it's hard to imagine him playing on Saturday. Which means an untried KPD.

A lot of these issues are structural, so bringing more effort on Saturday (and surely we could hardly bring less!) is not in itself a guarantee of a better result, especially against better opposition. We haven't faced any good sides yet...

This is one game where I hope that Grundy changes his hit zones. Don't drop it at your feet, because Cripps will smash in and be too strong for our boys. Just smash it forward and clear Cripps's zone.

 

[jmac70]

We weren’t a professional team for the 125 year game?

We’ve improved a fair bit since then, and they have declined even further. We win this easily.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Greenwood 181cm, Cripps 195cm. Just doesn't work for mine.

Wells needs to put 4 quarters together for mine so not quite ready yet. VFL bye came at a bad time for him. That equally applies to Sier who needed to play this week to be any chance.

I think Greenwood could play the role Ziebell and Cunnington did on Cripps today, thats keep him to minimal possessions, and you take away Carlton strength immediately. Don't think height becomes a factor, when your just preventing him space to work in.
Wells has been named in the best players two consecutive weeks. I think his body of work has been quite good over the past month.

 

[Blues_1864]

Your mob always seem to turn up to play against us, no matter how rubbish they are. I don’t know what the ledger is over the last 20 years, but I’d be surprised if it’s far off 50 / 50.

39 games over the last 20 years since the beginning of 1999 (2017 the only season without a return bout). Collingwood 24-15 Carlton.

It was indeed 50-50 over the period 1999-2008, but since the beginning of 2009, 19 games, Collingwood 14-5 Carlton.

We have shown something most weeks, but I am concerned that it has only been against second-tier (at best) opposition. Of our seven opponents thus far, only Port is in the 8... and I am not convinced they are really very good. After Collingwood, we have GWS, so it's going to be a very big fortnight for Bolton.

Fundamentally, the issue is that although we look good when we look good, we ought to be easily disrupted by competent AFL teams. And when disruption happens, things head south very quickly - we still lack the experience to regroup effectively on-field and fight back when things aren't going our way. Which is a key aspect, for any side.

 

[sr36]

39 games over the last 20 years since the beginning of 1999 (2017 the only season without a return bout). Collingwood 24-15 Carlton.

It was indeed 50-50 over the period 1999-2008, but since the beginning of 2009, 19 games, Collingwood 14-5 Carlton.

We have shown something most weeks, but I am concerned that it has only been against second-tier (at best) opposition. Of our seven opponents thus far, only Port is in the 8... and I am not convinced they are really very good. After Collingwood, we have GWS, so it's going to be a very big fortnight for Bolton.

Fundamentally, the issue is that although we look good when we look good, we ought to be easily disrupted by competent AFL teams. And when disruption happens, things head south very quickly - we still lack the experience to regroup effectively on-field and fight back when things aren't going our way. Which is a key aspect, for any side.

Don't worry about it, we've got a poster ADZ who will cheer you up. He'll happily let you know that: Collingwood haven't beaten anyone yet. Cripps will smash us at the stoppage (probably right) Carlton by 24.

 

[Blues_1864]

Don't worry about it, we've got a poster ADZ who will cheer you up. He'll happily let you know that: Collingwood haven't beaten anyone yet. Cripps will smash us at the stoppage (probably right) Carlton by 24.

I saw someone in here write "ugly disappointing win" - I haven't seen those three words juxtaposed in decades...

 

[Apex36]

The way the Blues are playing today we could debut Tom Wilson against them next week after one weeks training.

It’s time

 

[Mecir73]

Do you think Mayney might be a chance.

 

[Jafo]

Wouldn’t want us to muck around and take it easy for the Carlton game.

It was only two years ago they embarrassed us in the 125 year game. Traditionally Collingwood v Carlton games didn’t follow ladder position.

I hope we go into this game treating this like a game against Geelong. I’m sure we will.

And let’s not talk (anymore than this) of Fev’s lazy dozen on one New Year’s Eve.

 

[NonPhixion]

Out: Reid, Adams (inj)
In: Cox, Wells/varcoe

I know its hard on Reid, but we cant have both him and cox. it will ruin our forward structure. Don't change what works.
Carlton are cherry-ripe for us to absolutely destroy them next week. They will have Simpson, Newman and most likely Jones out. Stop the influence of Cripps in the clearances and we will pick them apart.

 

[Quicky]

Agree it's a tightrope at chaos time and I'll always back the player that backs their instincts at that chaos moment, whatever the outcome.

I reckon if you're in range you have every right to take the shot.

 

[nahnah]

The way the Blues are playing today we could debut Tom Wilson against them next week after one weeks training.

'welcome to the Collingwood this will just be a developmental year, go tag Cripps'

 

[PicaBoo]

Out: Reid, Adams (inj)
In: Cox, Wells/varcoe

I know its hard on Reid, but we cant have both him and cox. it will ruin our forward structure. Don't change what works.
Carlton are cherry-ripe for us to absolutely destroy them next week. They will have Simpson, Newman and most likely Jones out. Stop the influence of Cripps in the clearances and we will pick them apart.

Give Cox another week off. He doesn't grow taller and neither will he better for the experience. Reward Reid for his effort and see if he can clean up his goal kicking .

 

[sr36]

'welcome to the Collingwood this will just be a developmental year, go tag Cripps'

That's in the first half, so that we can see if he's a mid. Then we'll move him on to McKay to see if he's a KPP.

 

[nahnah]

I've just come to realise I have no clue who their small/mid sized defenders apart from Daisy are

 

[nahnah]

they named Marc Murphy at half back, that doesnt seem right

 

[nahnah]

ok so according to their posters their backline may line up as such:
B: Plowman Weitering Stocker
HB: Williamson Marchbank Thomas


so..
Weitering > Reid
Marchbank > Mihocek
Plowman > De Goey
Williamson > Stephenson (I think, is Williamson quick?)
Thomas > WHE/JT
Stocker > Elliott

Our backline:
Moore > McKay
Roughead > Curnow
Howe > McGovern
Langdon > Silvagni
Maynard > SPS (think SPS mainly plays mid now though named by a Carlton fan at forward pocket)
Crisp > Gibbons

I think they're going to struggle with our small/mid forwards

 

[Kappa]

Good lord Carlton have a truly awful, awful list.

 

[sr36]

I think they're going to struggle with our small/mid forwards

To be fair to the bluebaggers, that goes for every team in the comp.

 

[adammania9]

We're still owed a Daniel Wells masterclass after he was rested for the Carlton game in '17 that we went on to lose

 

[Saintly Viewed]

In: Cox

Out: Adams (injured)

Be something as simple as this and they’ll give the threesome of Cox, Reid, Mihocek a whirl.

To me Cox is a definite in. That simple.

Emergencies will be interesting (assuming they really name the next 4 cabs they looking at).
I’ll also assume Wells isn’t yet ready though Aish is interesting, is he ready? I’ll assume yes but he’ll be unlucky.

Wills, Crocker, Aish, Varcoe.

 

[Finnishpie]

Don't worry about it, we've got a poster ADZ who will cheer you up. He'll happily let you know that: Collingwood haven't beaten anyone yet. Cripps will smash us at the stoppage (probably right) Carlton by 24.

I’d hate to hear the way ADZ talks to himself. “That was a crap post! Why did I post that. It could have been so much betteR!”

 

[jackcass]

Moore - 85 to 90 % gametime this year
Roughead - 80 to 90 % gametime this year

Exactly. That's 35-40% game time that we have only 1 KPD. Would be similar the other end with Cox & Grundy.