Preview Changes R14 vs Freo

[DognBones]

I think usually we announce a player's debut the day before teams are selected. No Busslinger announcement yet so may be overlooked again.

 

[Sentinel]

The betting market has consistently over rated the Dogs since 2021. A betting man could have made a fortune by betting against us every week.

This is true. A betting man placing $1 on our opponents for every match since the beginning of 2022 would have a return of $15.16, with the next best club to bet against being West Coast with a total return of $5.02. Betting $1 against Collingwood each game would have resulted in a loss of $28.43.

On the flip side, betting $1 for our opponents this week in every game in that time period would have resulted in the biggest returns of any club ($13.10).



(data sourced from here https://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-afl-results-and-odds-data/)

 

[Palace03]

Tailor made for a Buss debut this week, knowing Bev and this match committee they will over think it and try to be too clever. Buku was destroyed last time v Freo, can't send him back. Play Buku forward, send JOD back and play Buss as the 3rd tall defender.

Swap Buku for Gags as the sub.

In: Richards, Weightman, Buss,
Out: McNeil, Keath, Daniel

 

[bresker]

This is true. A betting man placing $1 on our opponents for every match since the beginning of 2022 would have a return of $15.16, with the next best club to bet against being West Coast with a total return of $5.02. Betting $1 against Collingwood each game would have resulted in a loss of $28.43.

On the flip side, betting $1 for our opponents this week in every game in that time period would have resulted in the biggest returns of any club ($13.10).

View attachment 2017655

(data sourced from here https://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-afl-results-and-odds-data/)

Interesting. The market is set by punters , not the bookmakers. Do gamblers have a soft spot for the Dogs , and bet with their hearts , not their heads ? Do punters look at ‘home game’ and assume a win ?

These results also bear out our misgivings about Bev’s consistency . Neutrals have no idea whether we’re going to win.

 

[Golden_6]

If Buss doesn’t debut then you would have to say it’s an absolutely certainly that the club already knows he’s leaving.

Stick him on Amiss and see how he goes. A very good player but isn’t a massive physical presence.

 

[WAbulldog]

In: Buss, Richards, Wightman
Out Keath (injured), McNeil, Daniel

 

[Bulldogs85]

 

[King Harold]

I think usually we announce a player's debut the day before teams are selected. No Busslinger announcement yet so may be overlooked again.

Not saying we should not pick him, but I saw a fair bit of the 2’s last week, he was just ok.

He may be one of those blokes that perform better at the higher level ?

 

[bulldogs201616]

Congrats Buss on the debut. Look forward to seeing how he goes.

 

[scooter600x]

Congrats Buss on the debut. Look forward to seeing how he goes.

Do you know something we don't?

 

[Jen Geoffings]

That’ll have the mathematicians in a tizz.

The knob in Canada will love it.

 

[adogsfan5]

Wouldn’t we have known by today? Doesn’t look likely then.

 

[out of finals]

Wouldn’t we have known by today? Doesn’t look likely then.

Freijah's was announced on a Thursday, holding out hope we do the same here

 

[Del165892]

This is true. A betting man placing $1 on our opponents for every match since the beginning of 2022 would have a return of $15.16, with the next best club to bet against being West Coast with a total return of $5.02. Betting $1 against Collingwood each game would have resulted in a loss of $28.43.

On the flip side, betting $1 for our opponents this week in every game in that time period would have resulted in the biggest returns of any club ($13.10).

View attachment 2017655

(data sourced from here https://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-afl-results-and-odds-data/)

This is awesome. My gut was telling me that we had been consistently underperforming based on the betting market expectation, but it's validating to see that the data confirms it.

Interesting. The market is set by punters , not the bookmakers. Do gamblers have a soft spot for the Dogs , and bet with their hearts , not their heads ? Do punters look at ‘home game’ and assume a win ?

These results also bear out our misgivings about Bev’s consistency . Neutrals have no idea whether we’re going to win.

My guess is that punters weight the talent on our list too high and our actual recent performance history too low.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Congrats Buss on the debut. Look forward to seeing how he goes.

God I hope this is true

 

[Bulldogs85]

Freijah's was announced on a Thursday, holding out hope we do the same here

Some with Charlie Clarke it was announced on a Thursday

 

[MYOB]

I'm hearing that one of the Ryley/Riley/ Rylee's will not be playing.

 

[TommyD13]

I'm hearing that one of the Ryley/Riley/ Rylee's will not be playing.

Better not be any of them. Ryley and Riley in particular keep getting ****ed around.

Ryley is best 23 every day of the week, and Riley has made enormous leaps this year and has played his role superbly.

No way Rhylee isn’t playing…

 

[adogsfan5]

I'm hearing that one of the Ryley/Riley/ Rylee's will not be playing.

If any of those players are dropped and Bramble/VDM keep their spot, sorry, but it’s beyond bullsh**

 

[JohnnySteel]

Have a feeling Sanders will be scapegoated for our midfield performance. Which I don’t agree with.


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[Sentinel]

This is awesome. My gut was telling me that we had been consistently underperforming based on the betting market expectation, but it's validating to see that the data confirms it.



My guess is that punters weight the talent on our list too high and our actual recent performance history too low.

I will say the data is a little skewed by the West Coast loss last year, who were by far the biggest underdogs of any team in the last few years to win (paying $14.71, the next closest recently being Freo over Geelong in 2023 at $9.45), and in fact the biggest underdog since at least 2009.

Of the 59 games we've played since Rd1 2022 we've lost 29, of which we went in favourites more than half the time (15).

 

[Guido]

I'm hearing that one of the Ryley/Riley/ Rylee's will not be playing.

Not that I hope that any of them are injured, but I "hope" it's due to injury.

Sanders is the only one that could even be close to being dropped on output, but kids are naturally inconsistent. He's got plenty to work on, but it's not like he's out of his depth - he'd develop much more quickly playing opposed to Fyfe, Serong or O'Meara than dominating some 19 year old finding his feet or a 27 year old who'll never make the grade in the VFL.

 

[JohnnySteel]

IN: Buss, Weightman, Richards
OUT: Keath, Khamis, McNeil

VDM - SUB




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[Testekill]

If Busslinger doesn't debut this week then we've conceded that he's gone at the end of the year.

 

[ossie_21]

I'm hearing that one of the Ryley/Riley/ Rylee's will not be playing.

Hopefully you mis-heard and it was in fact…..Riley Lobb