Unofficial Preview Changes V GWS Semi Final

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KissKiss said:
If we name Payne I hope we think of Prior and Joyce as an emergency. Gives us the most coverage for Payne to get fit and cover falls and smalls if Payne plays
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I think that is of a too defensive mind set for a final. We have to go all in (Noted though that Prior is not as defensive so he is a maybe as sub). Will be interesting to see which way they go.
 
KissKiss said:
If we name Payne I hope we think of Prior and Joyce as an emergency. Gives us the most coverage for Payne to get fit and cover falls and smalls if Payne plays
Click to expand...
By this i assume you mean if Payne or someone else goes down before the game starts?
Like Morris a late in for Starcevich.
 
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Reville really is the best sub IF he is fit enough to do so. His skills are silky, he's strong and he is calm under pressure. HE can also play a bunch of roles, he's a bit of an Ah Chee meets Coleman.
 
Section 5 said:
By this i assume you mean if Payne or someone else goes down before the game starts?
Like Morris a late in for Starcevich.
Click to expand...
Sorry meant Prior as sub and Joyce can be part of the normal emergencies (usually a mid, a ruck and a key position player). Gives Payne as much recovery time as possible but if he still isnt 90% by the start of the game pull him and play Joyce
 
Just on goalkicking...


Brisbane Lions’ goalkicking woes in stark contrast to AFL semi-final opponent GWS Giants​

It’s the accurate Giants up against the scattergun Lions — CALLUM DICK and LACHLAN MCKIRDY delve into the key numbers that could decide this weekend’s semi-final.


“Bad kicking is bad football”.

It is an adage as old as Aussie rules itself.

But what about bad goal kicking?

The Brisbane Lions have been asked that question repeatedly over the past month.

Externally, players and coaches have shrugged their wayward woes off as something that will simply correct itself in due course.

Unfortunately, a season’s worth of data suggests it is a bigger issue than Chris Fagan and co. would care to admit – at least publicly.

Brisbane’s coach is a stats man. He always comes armed with the KPIs. By just about every measure he considers important, his side performs strongly.

Except the stat that ultimately decides the outcome of games.

The Lions rank 15th in the AFL for accuracy across the season, going at 46.4 per cent. The league average is 49.3 per cent.

Over their past five games, that number has plummeted even further to just 41.7 per cent. Not exactly peaking for September.

Only Richmond, averaging 7.4 fewer shots per game, boasts a worse accuracy rating than the Lions in that span.

For Brisbane fans, these numbers will not be anything new. They have bemoaned their team’s inaccuracy for months and no doubt dug down into the numbers themselves.

To this point, Brisbane’s Achilles heel has not proved fatal.

After all, Fagan’s side is one of only six teams still in the premiership hunt.

But this weekend six will become four, and if the Lions want to progress through to a fourth prelim in five years, they must solve their goalkicking struggles.

Fittingly, their semi-final opponent presents as the polar opposite.

TWO WAYS TO WIN​

GWS is the No. 2 ranked team for accuracy across the season, at 54.4 per cent: more than five per cent higher than the league average and eight per cent better than Brisbane.

While the Lions have trended down over their past five games, the Giants have actually improved – marginally, to 54.5 per cent – in that time.

The two teams are a fascinating case study in quantity versus quality.

Brisbane is the No. 1 inside 50 differential (+9.8) and shots at goal (28.5) team in the AFL. Conversely, GWS ranks 15th (-3.8) and 12th (24.1) respectively.

But not only do the Giants make up for that by being the No. 2 goal kicking accuracy team in the competition, they are also the fourth-best for expected shot at goal accuracy.

Brisbane fares better in this area, ranking seventh in the AFL. But that also means the Lions are whiffing on shots they should be expected to convert into goals.

CONTRASTING KICKING​

We only have to cast an eye back five weeks for the perfect example of the two sides’ approach to goal kicking.

GWS walked into the Gabba in round 22 and ended Brisbane’s nine-game winning run.

In one of the more remarkable games this season, Adam Kingsley’s men came from 30 points down at quarter-time, booting the final six goals of the game, to claim an 18-point victory.

By almost all of Fagan’s metrics, the Lions were the better team. But they were wasteful in front of goal, booting 8.16 to the Giants’ eye-wateringly accurate 13.4.

On expected score, Brisbane should have won the match by more than five goals.

Of their 16 behinds, nine came from set shots and four of those were within 40m on a slight angle.

They had three shots on goal from within 30m that failed to score entirely.

The Giants meanwhile missed just two set shots for the entire match and only failed to score from one attempt on goal.

It was a diabolical display of inaccurate goal kicking that ultimately cost the Lions a place in the top four.

THE GIANT DIFFERENCE​

The Lions’ malaise in front of goal is laid bare when you simply look at their individual accuracy stats in comparison to Saturday’s opponents.

Of Brisbane’s top 10 goal-kickers this season, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee and Logan Morris share the best accuracy with 54 per cent. Down in Western Sydney, eight of the Giants’ best goal-kickers have an accuracy of 55 per cent or greater.

Naturally, a big factor in the success that Kingsley’s side has had in 2024 is the form of Coleman Medallist, Jesse Hogan. From 109 shots, Hogan has kicked 72.25, with only 12 missing entirely.

His accuracy is in stark contrast to Brisbane’s Joe Daniher, a player whose form was good enough this year to be selected for the 44-man All-Australian squad.

Daniher’s accuracy sits at 45 per cent, having scored 52.46 from his 116 shots at goal. That is 21 per cent less than Hogan (65 per cent) who has put together one of the most accurate seasons from a key forward of all time.

One of the most notable parts of the Giants’ accuracy is that it’s their young talls who are standing up to the occasion. Aaron Cadman has scored 29.11 at 64 per cent in just his second season, while Jake Riccardi has kicked 26.12 at 57 per cent.

Their least accurate forward with more than 10 goals this year is actually their skipper, Toby Greene. Last year’s All-Australian captain has still scored 41 goals, but his accuracy of 44 per cent is only just double the number of shots he has missed (22 per cent).

JEKYLL AND HYDE GIANTS​

Clearly, the Giants have made the most of their opportunities this year. Despite having the seventh-fewest shots at goal in 2024, they’ve had the second-best accuracy.

Four of their wins during their recent seven-game winning streak arrived despite having fewer scoring shots than their opposition – Richmond (24-23), Gold Coast (20-19), Melbourne (23-20) and Brisbane (24-17).

That form can only last so long, and it was exposed in the qualifying final against the Swans. Their first quarter proved particularly costly, as they only scored 17 points despite having an expected score of 26.7.


Toby Greene missed two great opportunities including an open goal running in from a slight angle 30 metres out, while James Peatling missed a set shot from directly in front. Lachie Keeffe also missed a couple of gilt-edged chances in the second and fourth quarters.

Naturally, that was contrasted by some above-average conversions from the likes of Aaron Cadman and Callan Ward. But if they and Hogan have an off day, their inaccuracy can be exploited by the Lions because they simply haven’t been able to generate enough looks inside 50 this season.

However, for three quarters against the Swans, the Giants’ defence completely locked down the best attack in the competition. If they can do that for the entire game against the Lions, and return to the efficiency that has served them well all season, Fagan’s side could be in for a long day at the office.
 
Grasshopper17 said:
Transport update for Saturday. The union has in their infinite wisdom decided that Saturday is an excellent day for industrial action.

So there are reduced trains on Saturday.

The good news is that they ARE putting on direct trains from Central to Olympic Park. The bad news is that there is only 3 of them (in grey):

View attachment 2108197

Given the general reliability of this particular route, I'll probably be targeting the 5:55 service.
Click to expand...
Looks like there’s no direct to central on the way back but?

Think I’ll drive out but going to be a pain. I wish giants had won.
 

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Lion Jack said:
Very nervous about this weekend, even though I think we are still the best team left in it when we are switched on, but we are also the most mentally weakest. When pressure is applied from the opposition we falter. We can't stop opposition run ons after we have substantial leads. Our goalkicking goes into disarray at pivotal moments during a match and we don't have the physical mentality to keep pushing ourselves in last quarters when we are fatigued. All these issues have been on display during the last few weeks. Hopefully we can rectify these problems on Saturday and have a well deserved win against the Giants.
Click to expand...
Port are the weakest mentally by a long way
 
M Malice said:
I generally like Davis's opinions but... Lions with the lowest floor of the teams left in it, LOL!

Has he not seen Port play?
Click to expand...
Bring on the game, I think that all sensible analyses have been exhausted.
 
Umpires
Nick Foot (2), Jamie Broadbent (20), Simon Meredith (21), Craig Fleer (26).

As far as umpires go I don't mind this bunch, as it should be as we are down to the supposed 8 best umpires in the competition now.
 
Squizz89 said:
Just on goalkicking...


Brisbane Lions’ goalkicking woes in stark contrast to AFL semi-final opponent GWS Giants​

It’s the accurate Giants up against the scattergun Lions — CALLUM DICK and LACHLAN MCKIRDY delve into the key numbers that could decide this weekend’s semi-final.


“Bad kicking is bad football”.

It is an adage as old as Aussie rules itself.

But what about bad goal kicking?

The Brisbane Lions have been asked that question repeatedly over the past month.

Externally, players and coaches have shrugged their wayward woes off as something that will simply correct itself in due course.

Unfortunately, a season’s worth of data suggests it is a bigger issue than Chris Fagan and co. would care to admit – at least publicly.

Brisbane’s coach is a stats man. He always comes armed with the KPIs. By just about every measure he considers important, his side performs strongly.

Except the stat that ultimately decides the outcome of games.

The Lions rank 15th in the AFL for accuracy across the season, going at 46.4 per cent. The league average is 49.3 per cent.

Over their past five games, that number has plummeted even further to just 41.7 per cent. Not exactly peaking for September.

Only Richmond, averaging 7.4 fewer shots per game, boasts a worse accuracy rating than the Lions in that span.

For Brisbane fans, these numbers will not be anything new. They have bemoaned their team’s inaccuracy for months and no doubt dug down into the numbers themselves.

To this point, Brisbane’s Achilles heel has not proved fatal.

After all, Fagan’s side is one of only six teams still in the premiership hunt.

But this weekend six will become four, and if the Lions want to progress through to a fourth prelim in five years, they must solve their goalkicking struggles.

Fittingly, their semi-final opponent presents as the polar opposite.

TWO WAYS TO WIN​

GWS is the No. 2 ranked team for accuracy across the season, at 54.4 per cent: more than five per cent higher than the league average and eight per cent better than Brisbane.

While the Lions have trended down over their past five games, the Giants have actually improved – marginally, to 54.5 per cent – in that time.

The two teams are a fascinating case study in quantity versus quality.

Brisbane is the No. 1 inside 50 differential (+9.8) and shots at goal (28.5) team in the AFL. Conversely, GWS ranks 15th (-3.8) and 12th (24.1) respectively.

But not only do the Giants make up for that by being the No. 2 goal kicking accuracy team in the competition, they are also the fourth-best for expected shot at goal accuracy.

Brisbane fares better in this area, ranking seventh in the AFL. But that also means the Lions are whiffing on shots they should be expected to convert into goals.

CONTRASTING KICKING​

We only have to cast an eye back five weeks for the perfect example of the two sides’ approach to goal kicking.

GWS walked into the Gabba in round 22 and ended Brisbane’s nine-game winning run.

In one of the more remarkable games this season, Adam Kingsley’s men came from 30 points down at quarter-time, booting the final six goals of the game, to claim an 18-point victory.

By almost all of Fagan’s metrics, the Lions were the better team. But they were wasteful in front of goal, booting 8.16 to the Giants’ eye-wateringly accurate 13.4.

On expected score, Brisbane should have won the match by more than five goals.

Of their 16 behinds, nine came from set shots and four of those were within 40m on a slight angle.

They had three shots on goal from within 30m that failed to score entirely.

The Giants meanwhile missed just two set shots for the entire match and only failed to score from one attempt on goal.

It was a diabolical display of inaccurate goal kicking that ultimately cost the Lions a place in the top four.

THE GIANT DIFFERENCE​

The Lions’ malaise in front of goal is laid bare when you simply look at their individual accuracy stats in comparison to Saturday’s opponents.

Of Brisbane’s top 10 goal-kickers this season, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee and Logan Morris share the best accuracy with 54 per cent. Down in Western Sydney, eight of the Giants’ best goal-kickers have an accuracy of 55 per cent or greater.

Naturally, a big factor in the success that Kingsley’s side has had in 2024 is the form of Coleman Medallist, Jesse Hogan. From 109 shots, Hogan has kicked 72.25, with only 12 missing entirely.

His accuracy is in stark contrast to Brisbane’s Joe Daniher, a player whose form was good enough this year to be selected for the 44-man All-Australian squad.

Daniher’s accuracy sits at 45 per cent, having scored 52.46 from his 116 shots at goal. That is 21 per cent less than Hogan (65 per cent) who has put together one of the most accurate seasons from a key forward of all time.

One of the most notable parts of the Giants’ accuracy is that it’s their young talls who are standing up to the occasion. Aaron Cadman has scored 29.11 at 64 per cent in just his second season, while Jake Riccardi has kicked 26.12 at 57 per cent.

Their least accurate forward with more than 10 goals this year is actually their skipper, Toby Greene. Last year’s All-Australian captain has still scored 41 goals, but his accuracy of 44 per cent is only just double the number of shots he has missed (22 per cent).

JEKYLL AND HYDE GIANTS​

Clearly, the Giants have made the most of their opportunities this year. Despite having the seventh-fewest shots at goal in 2024, they’ve had the second-best accuracy.

Four of their wins during their recent seven-game winning streak arrived despite having fewer scoring shots than their opposition – Richmond (24-23), Gold Coast (20-19), Melbourne (23-20) and Brisbane (24-17).

That form can only last so long, and it was exposed in the qualifying final against the Swans. Their first quarter proved particularly costly, as they only scored 17 points despite having an expected score of 26.7.


Toby Greene missed two great opportunities including an open goal running in from a slight angle 30 metres out, while James Peatling missed a set shot from directly in front. Lachie Keeffe also missed a couple of gilt-edged chances in the second and fourth quarters.

Naturally, that was contrasted by some above-average conversions from the likes of Aaron Cadman and Callan Ward. But if they and Hogan have an off day, their inaccuracy can be exploited by the Lions because they simply haven’t been able to generate enough looks inside 50 this season.

However, for three quarters against the Swans, the Giants’ defence completely locked down the best attack in the competition. If they can do that for the entire game against the Lions, and return to the efficiency that has served them well all season, Fagan’s side could be in for a long day at the office.
Click to expand...

I need to channel my inner IRA re our inaccuracy and GWS’ accuracy, given the number of looks we get every game and the fact that we ended up at roughly the same place after the H&A despite being on opposite ends of the accuracy ladder…

“We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky every time.”.
 
M Malice said:
Unchanged apart from McKenna being named in the starting 18.

If we stick to the normal routine who of the named 5 on the bench will be the sub- Lohmann, Ah Chee, Morris, Starcevich or Answerth.... I really hope it is not Answerth, we need his defensive mindset on the Giants smalls.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure we named mckenna on the ground initially last week then he was sub?
 
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