Preview Changes VS Hawks - Elimination Final @ MCG Friday 6th Sep 7:40pm

[ExRoyboy]

On selection, it’s really a toss up between West & Harmes. If VDM is out I’d select both, but I suspect Jones will stay in in place of one of them. If Jones stays in, then I like Harmes as sub, he’s so versatile, and with a huge game yesterday he seems ready.

As to the game more broadly, last time we absolutely smashed them out of stoppages but just kept repeatedly handing the ball back with poor turnovers, our worst effort in 5 or so years (+20 turnovers for the game). Particularly in our defensive half.

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Given our transition from defensive 50 to forward 50 has improved out of sight since early season to become a real strength, I don’t think that game is easily repeatable for the Hawks (or more so, it’d take a significant dip/regression for us to throw away another game the same way).

I remember Charlie Clarke had about 5 horrible clangers by himself. It was his first game and he was extremely nervous so I really felt sorry for him. But that won’t be repeated, we will have a much stronger team. Having said that, Watson was also nowhere near as good back then as he is now and Hawthorn in general have improved a lot since then as well. Our defence is much better as well and Richards insertion into the midfield has dramatically improved our midfield as well.

Either way, both teams are playing much better since that game early in the year but I agree that we should not turn it over anything like we did in that game again, at least I definitely hope not.

 

[adogsfan5]

Reading the Hawks board, it’s so evident they don’t know anything about our team or watch our games.

They seem to think rain is a disadvantage to us and our tall forward line/defence.

I’m biased, but I’d argue we are the best wet weather team. We made Geelong and GWS look like 2021 north Melbourne in the rain.

Having elite players like Bont and Libba play in the rain only separates their class from midfielders who are good, but not superstars like Jai Newcombe etc.

We are a very good wet weather side.

Speed doesn’t win finals.

 

[my plums]

Carlton in 9th out of eight

 

[ExRoyboy]

Conventional wisdom says that the rain would negate our perceived strength (height and aerial dominance) so I can see why they think the wet weather would favour them. But Dogs fans who watch every game know that wet weather footy is where Bevo ball thrives. When the whole game is basically one big stoppage, we dominate. If our opponent can't get quick, clean ball movement, we dominate. It helps that our talls, especially Naughton and JUH, are fantastic ground ball players.

Really good point. Wet weather normally means a high stoppage game and this suits us more than almost any other team. We are generally really well disciplined on playing territory football in the wet like we did in Geelong and against GWS. So I don’t think any wet weather will worry the Dogs. My worry is if English is dominated physically and this allows Hawthorn to get on top in the midfield. When we get beaten in the midfield is when we tend to lose so we need Tim to give a huge effort and break even at least in the ruck and give our midfield the best chance to win the clearance battle. We also need to bring pressure like we did in R24 against GWS and if we can have that sort of pressure rating this will make it hard for the Hawks to get their ball movement going.

 

[Eastdog]

Now Hawks fans think because it’s forecast to rain we stand no chance. Just conveniently ignoring we produced the two best wet weather performances this year (GWS and Geelong away).

We beat two top four sides in the wet. That is huge for mine.

 

[Eastdog]

At their home ground ... as the away team..

I have no issue playing at the G given it is where we have to play to win the flag and allows more of our supporters to go to the game which is what we want. The G is where it is at in September.

I can understand absolutely the argument that we are the home team finishing 6th and should earn the right at least in week 1 to host it and we play mostly at Marvel our home games and the Hawks at the G yet still they play there despite finishing 7th.

Problem solved if we play more at the MCG than we do. The Saints and Kangaroos would have the same argument.

All Victorian clubs need to be playing a reasonable number of games at the G during the season so it's not a huge advantage to one team.

 

[CarnTheScray]

If Hawthorn fans want to let themselves be deluded into thinking they are wet weather kings because they beat up bottom 4 sides in the rain, let them. It’s their board.

 

[Dog 36]

If Hawthorn fans want to let themselves be deluded into thinking they are wet weather kings because they beat up bottom 4 sides in the rain, let them. It’s their board.

What is predicted and what the weather may eventuate may be very different

 

[CarnTheScray]

Harmes has to come in.

West I’m not sure of unlike others here. He tried his guts out in the VFL but didn’t have a massive game, which is what a broken jaw does to you.

 

[Dog 36]

Harmes has to come in.

West I’m not sure of unlike others here. He tried his guts out in the VFL but didn’t have a massive game, which is what a broken jaw does to you.

IMO West wasn’t played in the VFL to have a massive game all he needed to do was get a run and just let his body get hit a couple of times

He has shown enough this season to be a starter

 

[JTCWBFC]

I want to see more out of naughton on Friday.

For the $$$ he is on and the length of his deal he needs to stand up especially against a smaller defence.

Needs to own the moment, nail his shots and tear it up.

Darcy and jamarra have shown real progression at times this year.

Time is now for the astro

 

[Doggies7]

I want to see more out of naughton on Friday.

For the $$$ he is on and the length of his deal he needs to stand up especially against a smaller defence.

Needs to own the moment, nail his shots and tear it up.

Darcy and jamarra have shown real progression at times this year.

Time is now for the astro

Definitely fair.

I feel like Naughty was really hitting his stride around mid year and getting up the ground looking very dangerous, then he did his knee in that Sydney game and hasn't looked 100% with it since. I imagine he has a clean surgery waiting for him in the offseason or at least some more management of it, but definitely think it's hampered his 2nd half of the year.

 

[Merlins Revenge]

I may be drunk and on a train home from Shinjuku in Japan, traveling to my sharehouse an hour away, but my thoughts on the game are:

1. Hawks and young and have zip, but we have battle-hardened warriors. Bont. Libba, Jones, Naughton, the list goes on. We know what to expect. Sam Mitchell may have lived there finals like they were normal events, but a majority of the hawks lost are unfamiliar.

2. A completely different midfield. Libba was essentially concussed in the last game against the hawks, and Richards didn’t have a full game in the middle. A full game into them, when we comprehensively beat them in the middle last time and we run away with it.

3. Talls working in tandem: Darcy, Naughton and Marra seem to have finally learnt how to all be dangerous in the one game. They all have different strengths - huge advantage.

Honestly, one of the ways I see us losing this is complacency. We underestimate them, Ginnivan and co kick a bag and we fade into obscurity. However, I’ll back Bevo to get us firing. Especially with the passing of John Schultz. We will come out all guns blazing and put them game to bed after a half.

Unfortunately, I won’t be able to get to the game, but I’ll be cheering on from Tokyo!

 

[Arkangel]

Other than the fact that most predictive models have us as a stronger team than the Hawks, one of the main things I think we have going for us is that they beat us the last time we met. This may sound bizarre, but my feeling is that, in seasons where we're playing okay, we pretty much never lose two games in a row to the same opposition---it's like we psych ourselves up for retribution in the return match. For instance, in 2021 we lost to both Essendon and Port Adelaide during the H&A season, and then smashed both of them in the finals. We also lost to Melbourne at the beginning of the season and then beat them toward the end. In 2016, we lost to Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and GWS the first time we played them, and reversed the ledger on all three teams the second time round. (The exception to this rule was Geelong; we were on top of them the second time around before we lost half our midfield to injury.) This year, we've lost to Melbourne, Geelong, and Sydney the first time we met them, and then thrashed all of them the second time around. If this is a genuine pattern, and not just my imagination, we should come out breathing fire on Friday night.

(At least, that's what I'm hoping…)

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Other than the fact that most predictive models have us as a stronger team than the Hawks, one of the main things I think we have going for us is that they beat us the last time we met. This may sound bizarre, but my feeling is that, in seasons where we're playing okay, we pretty much never lose two games in a row to the same opposition---it's like we psych ourselves up for retribution in the return match. For instance, in 2021 we lost to both Essendon and Port Adelaide during the H&A season, and then smashed both of them in the finals. We also lost to Melbourne at the beginning of the season and then beat them toward the end. In 2016, we lost to Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and GWS the first time we played them, and reversed the ledger on all three teams the second time round. (The exception to this rule was Geelong; we were on top of them the second time around before we lost half our midfield to injury.) This year, we've lost to Melbourne, Geelong, and Sydney the first time we met them, and then thrashed all of them the second time around. If this is a genuine pattern, and not just my imagination, we should come out breathing fire on Friday night.

(At least, that's what I'm hoping…)

Bevo is a good coach that learns from bad games and errors, is what I'm reading with this.

I feel like Bevo also learnt a lot from the 2022 elimination final loss to Freo, our last final (duh), and will want to make amends for his coaching errors in that game. One of them being seduced into picking a finally-fit-but-not-match-fit Toby McLean to solve our wing issues in that game. He looked a million dollars getting 10 touches in the first quarter helping us build the lead, but was cooked by the second half and while he tried his heart out was one of the many reasons why we got overrun in the second half.

The reviews and different footy department structure, and over the course of the year, has meant we've learnt what our best verion of a balanced team is. Vandermeer, Gallagher and McNeil getting games as young, pacy players who understand structures, even if they have their myriad of weaknesses. Bramble in defence unlocking Dale's elite year. Lobb down back. Williams on the wing for basically the second half of the year after flirting with half-back a little. Richards to the middle. Etc. Some odd moves on paper but they create a much better balanced team with division of skills.

 

[maddog37]

I want to see more out of naughton on Friday.

For the $$$ he is on and the length of his deal he needs to stand up especially against a smaller defence.

Needs to own the moment, nail his shots and tear it up.

Darcy and jamarra have shown real progression at times this year.

Time is now for the astro

He was named all Australian chf by champion data. Can’t have been to bad.

 

[revo333]

If Hawthorn fans want to let themselves be deluded into thinking they are wet weather kings because they beat up bottom 4 sides in the rain, let them. It’s their board.

'On the Hawks board they saying...'

'On the Bulldogs board they are saying...'

Wah Wah Wah!

 

[Libbaaaa]

I want to see more out of naughton on Friday.

For the $$$ he is on and the length of his deal he needs to stand up especially against a smaller defence.

Needs to own the moment, nail his shots and tear it up.

Darcy and jamarra have shown real progression at times this year.

Time is now for the astro

Naughty has played a real selfless role this year and would still be on 40+ goals had he not missed a month with injury. While we would all love to see him sitting on heads like 2019 the current balance between himself, Marra and Darc is real good.

 

[Mofra]

I want to see more out of naughton on Friday.

For the $$$ he is on and the length of his deal he needs to stand up especially against a smaller defence.

Needs to own the moment, nail his shots and tear it up.

Darcy and jamarra have shown real progression at times this year.

Time is now for the astro

Naughton was the no 1 rated forward in the comp just a few weeks ago.
Does a lot of his work between the arcs now. We function far better when he's not in the F50 competing for the same ball as Marra & Darcy.

 

[Ghenghis]

'On the Hawks board they saying...'

'On the Bulldogs board they are saying...'

Wah Wah Wah!

I'm just heading over to the Swans board to see what they are saying about us.......

 

[revo333]

I'm just heading over to the Swans board to see what they are saying about us.......

We got gifted the 2016 flag!

 

[Dogs Rule]

And 26 degrees!

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

They think our 22 is made up of three tall forwards. Thats good. Hope their club does the same and they prepare for three and the other 19 are off the leash.

It's a bit of a giggle this whole rain stuff. Any decent judge would go back and have a look at how good we are and have been this year in a wet weather scrap. Bring it on. Whatever the conditions. Wet, dry, hot, cold, who cares?

For Bevo's whole rein we've been a good wet weather team. I'm hoping for rain, we lift

 

[Dogs Rule]

For Bevo's whole rein we've been a good wet weather team. I'm hoping for rain, we lift

Yep, I mean apart from examples this year over two of the top 4 teams, we have players built for the wet (Libba is just one) and this wet weather form goes all the way back to that epic win over the Swans in 2015.

Also, imagine a team renaming themselves after the sound you make when you cough up a furball (Hok)?

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I do wonder how we will go against their quick small forwards, we have always been notoriously bad against them, with the likes of Eddie Betts,Close and Cameron killing us in the past. I hope Bevo and co have done their home work.

I think too, it’s always an advantage if you lose the first time, because you can then look at the reason why and counteract, you can’t do that when you are winners.