Preview Changes vs Hawthorn, Rd 22, 2023

[House_of_Dahl]

Sounds ok in theory but in practice Dale is a total non-entity overhead in defence, Williams plays on the wing and only makes cameos in defence and Richards for whatever reason the aerial side of his game hasn’t featured nearly as much this year compared to last. He was great in the air last year.

I don’t think Keath is so much worse than every other KPD offensively that Bev has to go Tolkien and turn our defence into the Shire around just Jones & O’Donnell. Keath can be shaky with ball in hand, but he’s fine for a 2KPD. I think O’Donnell is good defensively and athletic, clean and composed enough to effectively play as a medium without hurting our ball movement. Give him another 3 weeks to get comfortable and see what happens. I just wouldn’t want to go into a final against the Lions, Cats, Blues, Port, etc with just Jones & an inexperienced O’Donnell. And I wouldn’t want to be doing horses for courses with our spine come finals.

Tend to agree, be surprised if we don't bring in Gards or Keith to play second KPD. Jones, JOD and Gards are mobile enough talls.

 

[X_box_X]

last time we played them they gave us a lot of trouble, they are better now and playing in Tas.
Only MacRae got more that 25 possessions, Hardwick, Reeves, Worpel, Day, Sicily, and Lewis, were all top 10 players on the ground.
Need to do our homework this week and get some match ups right.

This is a good thing, though. They caused us trouble and we still won by over four goals.

 

[TiAn_]

Alex Keath has only taken 23 intercept marks for the year Dale has 20 Williams 17 and Richards has more with 26, Keath isn't anything more than a Gardner type now defensively and is often woefully out positioned or outbodied so having a smaller guy really makes no difference

We finally scored from D50 on the weekend because we didn't have Keath or Gardner slowing us down with their terribly slow style nor the constant issue with Keath kicking backwards before seeing what is actually open, Keath 100% slows our ball movement down and costs us goals both ways because of it.

Why? Currently his opponents would be Hipwood, Rohan (pending Hawkings hamstring + Geelong making it) De Konning/Silvagni, Ollie Lord, Cox/McStay, Van Rooyen/Petty, Mitchito Owens and Riccardi most teams don't have the depth of key forward we have now or if they do e.g Carlton/Geelong one of them is injured.

Look at the way we moved the ball on Friday night quick clean effective you don't get that with 3 talls hence there are essentially only 3 teams actually running with them

I think you’re overstating the impact of one player on an entire team’s ball movement. There was clearly a team wide intent to play the way they did on Friday night, it wasn’t that Keath was out so the whole team moved the ball faster and more directly. I wouldn’t want to see Jones, Keath and Gardner though. And would prefer Keath to Gardner.

On intercept marks, if you use averages instead of totals he’s the same as Richards, and they’re both well ahead of Dale and Williams. I just don’t see Dale or Williams (who’s not even playing in defence) as factors in this conversation.

As good as he is, I think relying on Ed Richards as our only/best option on players like Hipwood/Gunston, Fritsch, Rohan, Finlayson, etc, and expecting a player as inexperienced as O’Donnell to hold down CHB is asking a lot in finals. If that’s the way we go though I hope that in practice it holds up and my concern was for nought.

 

[Foxman98]

I think you’re overstating the impact of one player on an entire team’s ball movement. There was clearly a team wide intent to play the way they did on Friday night, it wasn’t that Keath was out so the whole team moved the ball faster and more directly. I wouldn’t want to see Jones, Keath and Gardner though. And would prefer Keath to Gardner.

On intercept marks, if you use averages instead of totals he’s the same as Richards, and they’re both well ahead of Dale and Williams. I just don’t see Dale or Williams (who’s not even playing in defence) as factors in this conversation.

As good as he is, I think relying on Ed Richards as our only/best option on players like Hipwood/Gunston, Fritsch, Rohan, Finlayson, etc, and expecting a player as inexperienced as O’Donnell to hold down CHB is asking a lot in finals. If that’s the way we go though I hope that in practice it holds up and my concern was for nought.

Have you not seen how bad our transition is when Keath/Gards get the ball? I don't think I am overstating it at all they are both liabilities with pill in hand and as a result always take the easy backwards or sideways option

Williams can be pushed into defence and Dale has and will be able to take intercepts playing slightly taller than he is

JOD is inexperienced and it is asking a lot but we are going nowhere fast playing Keath/Gards they won't be in our next Premiership team so why not give Jimmy the challenge he genuinely can't do any worse then either of them off this seasons form

 

[Smiley Boy]

last time we played them they gave us a lot of trouble, they are better now and playing in Tas.
Only MacRae got more that 25 possessions, Hardwick, Reeves, Worpel, Day, Sicily, and Lewis, were all top 10 players on the ground.
Need to do our homework this week and get some match ups right.

We got smashed in contested ball at the start however last time we played them there was a bloke named Libba missing from our midfield so not sure that happens again this time around

 

[dogwatch]

We have six players in defence in any starting config with others going back to assist as needed. If we have one of Gardner or Keath back there the opposition will always rather have them take the exit possession instead of the likes of Dale, Richards, VDM, Jj, etc. So they will apply most of their pressure to the good ball users forcing more of the exits to go through Keath or Gards.

I agree that neither is an instinctual fast mover of the footy. They can both kick a reasonable distance but they have limited vision and make slow decisions. Not always good ones. Watching Keath play on is always a breath holding moment.

This becomes a serious problem if we have both Keath & Gardner playing as it is possible to force most of our exits through one or the other by leaving them unmarked and putting pressure on the good ball movers. Their combined inability to move it quickly and incisively effectively kills our slingshot rebounding ability. By the time the ball gets to the centre of the ground the opposition has regrouped and is flooding back to our f50.

I was delighted we suddenly started playing fast moving footy last week. It was very watchable and very effective. It is most effective when it starts at half back.

I think Bevo himself said we haven’t had the right personnel to play that way until now. I’m a little sceptical of that comment but if it’s true we can only play one of Keath or Gardner. Or neither.

Which one we choose might be a horses for courses decision. I suggested Keath should return next week, but on a risk reward basis I’d be ok if we played without either of them.

 

[Unorth]

I think Bevo himself said we haven’t had the right personnel to play that way until now. I’m a little sceptical of that comment but if it’s true we can only play one of Keath or Gardner.

I just don’t put much stock in that reasoning although I understand that Jones, Richards and JJ are all important players and have missed significant time.

Old Bev would have empowered random/no name players to play aggressively and to his vision. And he never would have played the trio of suspect tall defenders that we’ve been rolling with. Bev loved small ball, and now the comp has gone that way and he had to play Bruce, Keath, Gardner? And it’s been well discussed how much better our movement looked in the first game none of those three were playing.

It’s great that we changed on Friday night, with possibly our strongest squad against a depleted opposition. I think it’s valid to ask why it’s taken until there was a month left in the season to play like we did. But if we just play aggressively and give our talented forwards a chance catch out opponents in 1 on 1s we may be a chance.

 

[lachy]

Have you not seen how bad our transition is when Keath/Gards get the ball? I don't think I am overstating it at all they are both liabilities with pill in hand and as a result always take the easy backwards or sideways option

Williams can be pushed into defence and Dale has and will be able to take intercepts playing slightly taller than he is

JOD is inexperienced and it is asking a lot but we are going nowhere fast playing Keath/Gards they won't be in our next Premiership team so why not give Jimmy the challenge he genuinely can't do any worse then either of them off this seasons form

To follow up on that too defensively we have had Toby Greene, Papley, Elliot, Walters all smalls bag 4 or more goals against us recently so not only has having the slower low skilled backs realy hurt our ball movement it has exposed us against quality smalls by not having enough running options to allow for a lockdown whilst maintaining run and movement. 3 of those 4 games resulted in small losses

On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TiAn_]

Have you not seen how bad our transition is when Keath/Gards get the ball? I don't think I am overstating it at all they are both liabilities with pill in hand and as a result always take the easy backwards or sideways option

Williams can be pushed into defence and Dale has and will be able to take intercepts playing slightly taller than he is

JOD is inexperienced and it is asking a lot but we are going nowhere fast playing Keath/Gards they won't be in our next Premiership team so why not give Jimmy the challenge he genuinely can't do any worse then either of them off this seasons form

What I said was overstating things was attributing the entire team’s performance on Friday night to Keath being out. I’m sure having only Jones and O’Donnell would have helped somewhat offensively, but it didn’t account for what was happening further up the field. That pairing also wasn’t exactly vigorously tested defensively in that game.

Keath and Gardner are quite different. Keath can get himself into trouble trying to be proactive with his run and kicking. Gardner on the other hand is very conservative when he has time and hot potatoes the ball when he doesn’t.

 

[Foxman98]

What I said was overstating things was attributing the entire team’s performance on Friday night to Keath being out. I’m sure having only Jones and O’Donnell would have helped somewhat offensively, but it didn’t account for what was happening further up the field. That pairing also wasn’t exactly vigorously tested defensively in that game.

Keath and Gardner are quite different. Keath can get himself into trouble trying to be proactive with his run and kicking. Gardner on the other hand is very conservative when he has time and hot potatoes the ball when he doesn’t.

Keath is now very similar to Gardner with ball in hand,

If you watch the majority of his kicks are backwards switch kicks without even looking if a switch is on,

If Keath is coming back in it should be for JOD (Which I don't think he should)

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Sicily being a Werribee lad I think was a Bulldogs fan growing up.

He's a Melton chad.

We got smashed in contested ball at the start however last time we played them there was a bloke named Libba missing from our midfield so not sure that happens again this time around

Wasn't the biggest issue Mitch Lewis taking marks all over the ground?

Keath is now very similar to Gardner with ball in hand,

If you watch the majority of his kicks are backwards switch kicks without even looking if a switch is on,

If Keath is coming back in it should be for JOD (Which I don't think he should)

This mayve been a consequence of having 2 tall, slow, sub-par movers of the ball next to him. Combine this with the absence of JJ and Richards for extended periods and his options for outlets were somewhat limited. I have much more confidence in him when he's playing CHB and allowed a direct run at the ball.

I like what JO'D brings, but Id like us to settle on the safe combo of Jones and Keath for our run home. Id have JO'D next in line or brought in for specific matchups.

 

[TiAn_]

Keath is now very similar to Gardner with ball in hand,

If you watch the majority of his kicks are backwards switch kicks without even looking if a switch is on,

If Keath is coming back in it should be for JOD (Which I don't think he should)

I think we just disagree on them being similar. From my perspective, as an example, in his half against GWS Keath was attributed with a turnover following marking our second kick after a kick out at about 40m, playing on around a man (to his right, which was, uh, ballsy) to the back of the square and launching a long ball to Jamarra inside 50. Possibly missed a better option in Weightman, although he was running away instead of leading at him I think. It was the sort of attempt at being direct and taking territory that I feel I rarely see from Gardner.

Don’t get me wrong, when Keath gets a head of steam up running with the ball in traffic I shit myself like anyone, but I think his mistakes come more from biting off more than he can chew and attempting to attack, rather than being nervous like Gardner. And since I think we probably have to choose one I prefer the former.

 

[Foxman98]

I think we just disagree on them being similar. From my perspective, as an example, in his half against GWS Keath was attributed with a turnover following marking our second kick after a kick out at about 40m, playing on around a man (to his right, which was, uh, ballsy) to the back of the square and launching a long ball to Jamarra inside 50. Possibly missed a better option in Weightman, although he was running away instead of leading at him I think. It was the sort of attempt at being direct and taking territory that I feel I rarely see from Gardner.

Don’t get me wrong, when Keath gets a head of steam up running with the ball in traffic I s**t myself like anyone, but I think his mistakes come more from biting off more than he can chew and attempting to attack, rather than being nervous like Gardner. And since I think we probably have to choose one I prefer the former.

The disagreement more stems from the fact Keath can't play with 2 KPDs with him if its Him and Jones it's not the end of the world but having Him Jones JOD/Gards is what has been killing our transition hence if he is coming in it is for JOD not with JOD

 

[Foxman98]

He's a Melton chad.

Wasn't the biggest issue Mitch Lewis taking marks all over the ground?

This mayve been a consequence of having 2 tall, slow, sub-par movers of the ball next to him. Combine this with the absence of JJ and Richards for extended periods and his options for outlets were somewhat limited. I have much more confidence in him when he's playing CHB and allowed a direct run at the ball.

I like what JO'D brings, but Id like us to settle on the safe combo of Jones and Keath for our run home. Id have JO'D next in line or brought in for specific matchups.

I've seen enough from Keath and us this year to take the risk on JOD and develop him for the future for me Keath isn't as significant of an upgrade as he would've been 2 years ago

 

[TiAn_]

He's a Melton chad.

Wasn't the biggest issue Mitch Lewis taking marks all over the ground?

This mayve been a consequence of having 2 tall, slow, sub-par movers of the ball next to him. Combine this with the absence of JJ and Richards for extended periods and his options for outlets were somewhat limited. I have much more confidence in him when he's playing CHB and allowed a direct run at the ball.

I like what JO'D brings, but Id like us to settle on the safe combo of Jones and Keath for our run home. Id have JO'D next in line or brought in for specific matchups.

The effect of Richards and JJ out is a fair point too that I hadn’t thought of.

I’m a bit more bullish on O’Donnell working next to those two as a half back. He’s very fluid and his kicking seems to be genuinely good.

 

[TiAn_]

The disagreement more stems from the fact Keath can't play with 2 KPDs with him if its Him and Jones it's not the end of the world but having Him Jones JOD/Gards is what has been killing our transition hence if he is coming in it is for JOD not with JOD

Probably also true, per my comment to Norm above.

 

[Dog 36]

I think we just disagree on them being similar. From my perspective, as an example, in his half against GWS Keath was attributed with a turnover following marking our second kick after a kick out at about 40m, playing on around a man (to his right, which was, uh, ballsy) to the back of the square and launching a long ball to Jamarra inside 50. Possibly missed a better option in Weightman, although he was running away instead of leading at him I think. It was the sort of attempt at being direct and taking territory that I feel I rarely see from Gardner.

Don’t get me wrong, when Keath gets a head of steam up running with the ball in traffic I s**t myself like anyone, but I think his mistakes come more from biting off more than he can chew and attempting to attack, rather than being nervous like Gardner. And since I think we probably have to choose one I prefer the former.

Just on Keath and Gardner and their ability to move the ball especially by foot.

I cannot recall which coach it was (Eade or Bev) but one of them was asked about M.Boyd's disposal by foot and how it had improved

The response was that the improvement came as a result of his teammates been aware of which passes Boyd could execute well and therefore they all worked harder to provide that option forward of the ball. They went on to say that the change in options made Boyd more comfortable in that he did not need to chew more off than he could bite and therefore was a better player for it. Boyd's foot skills had not improved and if they had was very little but the choice he made was well within his capabilities as the options were there.

 

[Freshwater]

Out: Scott (concussion anyhow)
In : Arty.
Sub: Baker or Gardiner/Keath. Gardiner/Keath for sub if Bevo really wants them, and the match looks as it needs a tall defender in the mix? Last week’s game was a well balanced side, but I still have doubts on Vanders but he keeps his place, I would personally have Cleary.

 

[bullish23]

Have you not seen how bad our transition is when Keath/Gards get the ball? I don't think I am overstating it at all they are both liabilities with pill in hand and as a result always take the easy backwards or sideways option

Williams can be pushed into defence and Dale has and will be able to take intercepts playing slightly taller than he is

JOD is inexperienced and it is asking a lot but we are going nowhere fast playing Keath/Gards they won't be in our next Premiership team so why not give Jimmy the challenge he genuinely can't do any worse then either of them off this seasons form

If Williams could play that 3rd tall role - say on a Fritsch type - then we could absolutely go with Jones and JOD only. But it’s been proven time and time again now over multiple seasons, Williams cannot be relied upon to do that role. Therefore some weeks will require Keath against taller fwd lines.

 

[Foxman98]

If Williams could play that 3rd tall role - say on a Fritsch type - then we could absolutely go with Jones and JOD only. But it’s been proven time and time again now over multiple seasons, Williams cannot be relied upon to do that role. Therefore some weeks will require Keath against taller fwd lines.

No one has a taller forwadline now though,

Most have at best 2 and a genuine resting ruck

This weeks extra is Jacob Koschitzkie who's fairly likely to be delisted end of the year

 

[bullish23]

No one has a taller forwadline now though,

Most have at best 2 and a genuine resting ruck

This weeks extra is Jacob Koschitzkie who's fairly likely to be delisted end of the year

I exactly had Koschitzke in mind and the need to bring in Keath.

But let’s take Melbourne; Brown, Van Rooyen/Petty and Fritsch. I see JOD playing on Fritsch and hence would need Jones and Keath for the other two. Williams on Fritsch would be a disaster. TiAn_ is saying the same thing is my read.

 

[Foxman98]

I exactly had Koschitzke in mind and the need to bring in Keath.

But let’s take Melbourne; Brown, Van Rooyen/Petty and Fritsch. I see JOD playing on Fritsch and hence would need Jones and Keath for the other two. Williams on Fritsch would be a disaster.

Fritsch is 188cm and a medium forward he needs a Richards type on him not a KPD

 

[lachy]

If Williams could play that 3rd tall role - say on a Fritsch type - then we could absolutely go with Jones and JOD only. But it’s been proven time and time again now over multiple seasons, Williams cannot be relied upon to do that role. Therefore some weeks will require Keath against taller fwd lines.

What taller forward lines are there??

Fritsch is the same height as Red and Dale and is too quick for Keath.

Not only has it been the smalls doing the damage against us 16 of the players who have scored 30 or more goals are not KPF's including 5 of the top 10.

We have been too top heavy down back most of the year particularly when Jones went out as none of Keath, Gardiner or Bruce are anywhere near as mobile.

If Keath is to come in it has to be for JOD. I get why posters would say Keath over JOD in the lead up to finals, I disagree as having someone with his attributes will only get better and taking the risk could give us an edge that could take us further than expected where we are limited to what Keath can bring.

I just hope we have learnt from playing too many talls with poor skills and decision making which ultimately hurts us both ways once the opposition get a run on, which they inevitably will

 

[X_box_X]

Worpel 100 games
Newcombe 50 games

Just to give them more incentive.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I've seen enough from Keath and us this year to take the risk on JOD and develop him for the future for me Keath isn't as significant of an upgrade as he would've been 2 years ago

Maybe. But the recent re-signing of Keath would suggest that he is still a big part of our plans over the next year or so.

Either way it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see all 3 line up this week. the 3 tall defenders strategy has been a constant in our side all season. It was only with the injuries last week and an unwillingness to through Busslinger into the side that saw us step away from it.

The effect of Richards and JJ out is a fair point too that I hadn’t thought of.

I’m a bit more bullish on O’Donnell working next to those two as a half back. He’s very fluid and his kicking seems to be genuinely good.

Im plenty bullish about JO'D. He looks like the gift that will keep on giving.

My overall point is that we tend to overlook team structure and the knock on effect that the loss of a player or players can have to the teams performance. When we bitch and moan about team selection or perceived coaching favouritism come Thursday nights. This is especially so if match selection is recalcitrant to the desires of the better judges in here. We're all guilty of stamping the papers of players the moment they have a downturn in form or don't live up to our lofty expectations of them as an individual. As outsiders we're only ever given a glimpse of the full picture.