Preview Changes vs Hawthorn, Rd 22, 2023

[Libbaaaa]

Worpel 100 games
Newcombe 50 games

Just to give them more incentive.

Seriously doubt Sam Mitchell is pumping up the boys at training this week saying they gotta do it for James and Jai's milestones. Guard of honour after the game maybe as well.

 

[lachy]

Maybe. But the recent re-signing of Keath would suggest that he is still a big part of our plans over the next year or so.

Either way it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see all 3 line up this week. the 3 tall defenders strategy has been a constant in our side all season. It was only with the injuries last week and an unwillingness to through Busslinger into the side that saw us step away from it.

Im plenty bullish about JO'D. He looks like the gift that will keep on giving.

My overall point is that we tend to overlook team structure and the knock on effect that the loss of a player or players can have to the teams performance. When we bitch and moan about team selection or perceived coaching favouritism come Thursday nights. This is especially so if match selection is recalcitrant to the desires of the better judges in here. We're all guilty of stamping the papers of players the moment they have a downturn in form or don't live up to our lofty expectations of them as an individual. As outsiders we're only ever given a glimpse of the full picture.

It's interesting when you look at our team, we have not played the 3 tall defender strategy 7 times. O'Brien is not a tall he is one of those low 190's intercept defenders a similar height to Bont. In those games we are 5 and 2 this season.

When we have played with 3 genuine talls over 197cm any combination of Jones, Bruce, Keath, O'Donnell and Gardiner we are 6 and 7.

 

[Northernsoul74]

It's interesting when you look at our team, we have not played the 3 tall defender strategy 7 times. O'Brien is not a tall he is one of those low 190's intercept defenders a similar height to Bont. In those games we are 5 and 2 this season.

When we have played with 3 genuine talls over 197cm any combination of Jones, Bruce, Keath, O'Donnell and Gardiner we are 6 and 7.

At a guess I think previous seasons might be similar. Feels like we always revert/stumble upon the same structure towards the end of the season.

 

[Foxman98]

At a guess I think previous seasons might be similar. Feels like we always revert/stumble upon the same structure towards the end of the season.

Good thing is at least looking into the future Jimmy and Buss look pretty good with their skills so we can potentially go the 3 and it won't be as ineffective as it currently is with Gards + Keathy but it's hard to work out how it always takes us the whole season to work out it doesn't work

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Light winds probably a good thing the way missed set shots at Ballarat and the Hawks often play in windy familiar conditions at Launceston.

Sunday 13 August​

Summary

Min 2Max 13Partly cloudy.Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mmChance of any rain: 30%

Launceston area​

Partly cloudy. Patches of morning frost. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds.

 

[Martyn_30_]

Keath's a much defender than O'Donnell who still struggled against Riewoldt, yes he's a better ball user but the main reason the ball moved better from the backline is JJ, Richards and Dale played together for the first time since round 10. The last two games these three have played together have been beltings against Adelaide and now Richmond. It would be a big coincidence that the team was 7-3 when JJ got injured and then struggled straight after he went out of the team.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

People are overestimating the reliability of O'Donnell as a pure stopper just because he showed some agility (which is largely irrelavent if Lewis is their main threat). He actually lost a couple of contests late vs Richmond too that seems to have been forgotten in everyone's memory because the game was done and dusted.

He has a future yes but let's not pretend a bloke who had played four or whatever games in AFL defence will be more effective wearing opposition key forwards like a glove compared to Keath and Gardner.

 

[weltschmerz]

Jones will have to be on Lewis, he's by far their biggest threat.

 

[bobs head soup]

The move I'd be keenest to see this week would be for Lobb to take a defensive role on Sicily.

Sicily's intercepting and rebounding abilities are Hawthorns biggest threat IMO.

Lobb is 20cm taller than Sicily and is athletic enough to go with him. Just bring the ball to ground.

Opportunities for Lobb to do a heap offensively at a ground like Launceston will be limited, but a different and selfless role may be good for his confidence and the team dynamic.

 

[TiAn_]

Move the ball quickly and get their defenders in 1v1s against our KPFs and it really won’t matter what Sicily does.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Move the ball quickly and get their defenders in 1v1s against our KPFs and it really won’t matter what Sicily does.

Pretty much, force him to turn his back to the ball and like all defenders he’ll be toast. Slow the ball up and let him judge where the ball will land and he’ll have 20 marks.

 

[doggiesin08]

The move I'd be keenest to see this week would be for Lobb to take a defensive role on Sicily.

Sicily's intercepting and rebounding abilities are Hawthorns biggest threat IMO.

Lobb is 20cm taller than Sicily and is athletic enough to go with him. Just bring the ball to ground.

Opportunities for Lobb to do a heap offensively at a ground like Launceston will be limited, but a different and selfless role may be good for his confidence and the team dynamic.

I’ve always thought the best way to make a Sicily type accountable is to play through his man at every opportunity. The more we can hit up Lobb 55-60m out (where he can still take a shot) the less Sicily will be able to peel off him.

 

[lachy]

People are overestimating the reliability of O'Donnell as a pure stopper just because he showed some agility (which is largely irrelavent if Lewis is their main threat). He actually lost a couple of contests late vs Richmond too that seems to have been forgotten in everyone's memory because the game was done and dusted.

He has a future yes but let's not pretend a bloke who had played four or whatever games in AFL defence will be more effective wearing opposition key forwards like a glove compared to Keath and Gardner.

If we play Keath or Gards on Lewis he will kill us if he gets decent supply. Both are both average (both visually and statistically) in 1 v 1 defence.

Our only above average one v one is Jones so I don't think anyone advocating O'Donnell overestimates anything as the 2nd talls role is not as a pure stopper and Keath and Gards exposed 1 v 1 are marginally better at most even now let alone with development

 

[Libbaaaa]

The last 3 times we have played them they have come out of the blocks hot, would really like the avoid that.

 

[Doggy]

Should rest English since he's "not a big test for Reeves"

Haha, Whorethorn

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Should rest English since he's "not a big test for Reeves"

Haha, Whorethorn

Reeves gave English one of his bigger beatings of the season in round 7. It wasn't a demolition but despite a goal from English I thought Reeves clearly had the upper hand.

English hasn't quite figured out rucking against the super tall, of which Reeves is one. "Not a big test" is an exaggeration but I wouldn't be expecting English to wipe the floor with him as he has done most rucks this year.

 

[Dog 36]

Reeves gave English one of his bigger beatings of the season in round 7. It wasn't a demolition but despite a goal from English I thought Reeves clearly had the upper hand.

English hasn't quite figured out rucking against the super tall, of which Reeves is one. "Not a big test" is an exaggeration but I wouldn't be expecting English to wipe the floor with him as he has done most rucks this year.

Reeves was a reason their midfield played well in that game.

Our game seemed to start around Half back in that game with the way they were taking the ball out form clearances

 

[Dog 36]

I am more concerned less confident playing Hawthorn than I was playing the Tiggers

Game is in Tassie, they really pushed us in Round 7 (no Liber) and even last year in a must win we struggled to shake them

Dogs must find a way to win

 

[TiAn_]

Reeves gave English one of his bigger beatings of the season in round 7. It wasn't a demolition but despite a goal from English I thought Reeves clearly had the upper hand.

English hasn't quite figured out rucking against the super tall, of which Reeves is one. "Not a big test" is an exaggeration but I wouldn't be expecting English to wipe the floor with him as he has done most rucks this year.

Yeah, it was definitely one of his worst games for the season.

Mostly useless Tim English stats:

- We’re 1-5 when English has less than 29 hit outs and 10-4 when he has 29 or more

- We’re 8-3 when English has 20 or less disposals and 3-6 when he has over 20.

So obviously with Tim less disposals + more hitouts = win. Or if we want to make a certainty of the win, drop him for Jordon Sweet*.

*Not intended for consumption as a serious opinion.

 

[Libbaaaa]

May as well not play the game if you talk to Hawks fans, McGinnis and Nash will tag our entire midfield rotation on their own, Reeves has morphed into a combination of Gawn and Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

43

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

and Sicily is the Berlin Wall. Its a tough test no doubt but I'm happy about that, would hate to walk into round 24 and finals on the back of what were walks in the park on paper a few months ago v. Hawthorn/Eagles.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Yeah, it was definitely one of his worst games for the season.

Mostly useless Tim English stats:

- We’re 1-5 when English has less than 29 hit outs and 10-4 when he has 29 or more

- We’re 8-3 when English has 20 or less disposals and 3-6 when he has over 20.

So obviously with Tim less disposals + more hitouts = win. Or if we want to make a certainty of the win, drop him for Jordon Sweet*.

*Not intended for consumption as a serious opinion.

Actually not so stupid if you watched last seasons game Sweet vs Reeves.

Sweet dominated him in the second half after belting into him for the whole of the first half.

 

[Dog 36]

Actually not so stupid if you watched last seasons game Sweet vs Reeves.

Sweet dominated him in the second half after belting into him for the whole of the first half.

Pity but their was no appetite to play Sweet and English.

May have saved the investment in Lobb

Sweet's time at the Kennel is done I would think.

Would have loved to see our midfield with Sweet in the ruck for a period of time.

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

The move I'd be keenest to see this week would be for Lobb to take a defensive role on Sicily.

Sicily's intercepting and rebounding abilities are Hawthorns biggest threat IMO.

Lobb is 20cm taller than Sicily and is athletic enough to go with him. Just bring the ball to ground.

Opportunities for Lobb to do a heap offensively at a ground like Launceston will be limited, but a different and selfless role may be good for his confidence and the team dynamic.

I’d definitely like to see someone play a defensive role on Sicily but I don’t think Lobb’s the man for the job. Sicily would just run off him. I’d maybe try West if he has the discipline for it. Block Sicily from getting to the marking contest then go for the ball when it hits the ground.

Hannan would probably get the job if he was in the team.

 

[dogwatch]

Actually not so stupid if you watched last seasons game Sweet vs Reeves.

Sweet dominated him in the second half after belting into him for the whole of the first half.

THINGS TO WATCH #17:
Lobb spending a lot more minutes in the ruck needs to be ruck Plan B. Lobb is a very different sort of ruck to English which is a good thing. Dependning on the game situation English could spend his non-ruck minutes as an extra marking target up forward or an intercept mark in defence. He does both very well.
And we need to pull the trigger on it before HT if English is getting done in the ruck.

Thought I'd get in early before someone in the post mortem thread says "oh it's easy to say that in hindsight".

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Have people watched Hawks games? Sicily isn't some intercepting beast like peak Jake Lever

8

Jake Lever

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.3

3star

MG

242.0

4star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.1

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

145.4

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

189.8

4star

or whatever. He's good but his main threat is like an orchestra conducter, calling for the ball and making good decisions without error.