Unofficial Preview Changes vs North (Broomy out, Tooves in, Marsh, Dwyer and Broomy emergencies)

[Knightmare]

It's good to read analysis from a different angle, rather than puff and chest beating.

I really would have liked to see Ball go around for another year, in a different time he would have been captain. In hindsight if we knew Thomas would get an ASADA suspension I suspect he would have been retained, even with the recruitment of Greenwood, who I view as more the Luke Ball replacement. I haven't seen enough of Greenwood to gauge his leadership though.

While Langdon is a worthwhile comparison to Maxwell, I also see Marsh as having the potential to fill that role, albeit he's untested at AFL level. He's a better height fit to what Maxwell offered and from what I've seen in the VFL offers leadership, intercept marking and solid spoils. Like Maxwell he also struggles with bigger opponents and is more your classic third tall.

For the role he plays Varcoe needs to get more of the footy, it was good to see that against GC and I hope he can add that consistently. Lumumba was one of the hardest workers and very dedicated and professional in his approach, but I think in the end his issues just got too much. It was interesting to hear Grundy on sen the other day, he was full of praise for Varcoe and what he had brought into the club. When asked for an example Grundy mentioned his training as standing out.

On Ball and the same with Maxwell. I really wanted both to go around again. With Maxwell his body was failing him so he made the decision early himself. With Ball it is believed that he had back issues that prevented him from going around this year. But if he was physically able I like you also would have retained him. Such a professional and such a high quality leader. He was terrific for Collingwood.

On Marsh, his future will be very interested to watch. He is improving and this year has learnt to take more intercept and 1v1 marks which are really nice additions to his game after being more a stopper last year. What his best position will become, is so up in the air and something that with improvement has the potential to evolve in any number of ways. On Marsh in the Maxwell role, not that Maxwell was a good kick, but Marsh is a poor kick and someone I'd be more inclined to play in harder, head to head roles, rather than looser roles. And in head to head roles he can still on occasions take his 1v1 and intercept marks. So that's more where I see him at this point. Maybe as a third key defender who can take either one of the key forwards, the resting ruck, or whoever the next tallest deep forward is.

Interesting about Grundy's comments re. Varcoe. Not something I had heard or had any awareness of. With Varcoe he runs and chases hard. And also offensively can run hard with lots of unrewarded running which is useful. Just the issue as you identified is getting his hands on the ball, and I'd also add to that providing run and carry which he does very little of. He just needs to improve his running patterns, learn better where to go to find space. Then maybe he can be more of a factor offensively which we need more of, with so few guys who can offer meaningful or quick offense.
It's just until he improves in finding the ball and providing more run and carry more often, I'm just not yet sure he offers enough.

 

[jackcass]

Crisp at stoppages has not been someone I've watched closely or so specifically for. I've been most interested in our rucks at stoppages with Grundy and Witts developing players who I'm most interested in watching the progress of.

You're with Crisp right from the standpoint that he can man the better opposition mids at stoppages. He isn't your Crowley/Macaffer type tagger who can't win any footy and I see that as why he is effective. He may to an extent limit at stoppages the impacts of the better opposition midfielders. It's something I haven't observed, having not looked out for specifically that. But he is still winning his own clearances, with 33 clearances on the year and nine last round.

He seems to be with more games to be getting more minutes on the ball based on the progression of his clearance numbers. So the signs from that standpoint are encouraging. And his contested ball winning numbers since round three also have been good by position.

My interest with Crisp as with pretty much everyone on the list will be from this point onward how everyone plays with the better teams coming from now till seasons end. That's what will define where they're all at. This first portion of the season has just been about building confidence, from here it's all about learning and finding those areas for improvement.

I admit, I'm a fan of your assessment of kids leading into drafts but for me, this is the issue I have with your assessments of our team. You've discounted Crisp and his performances to date yet by your own admission you acknowledge You haven't even watched him closely.

Similarly early in the year you were discussing how, based on exposed TAC form, Moore doesn't display traits such as intercept marking and offensive rebound when playing in defense, yet these were all things he was doing in the VFL.

You're opinions of players seem unable to change once you've reached them despite people seeing evidence to the contrary.

Just out of curiosity how much VFL and senior footy do you watch?

 

[1892]

...
On Marsh, his future will be very interested to watch. He is improving and this year has learnt to take more intercept and 1v1 marks which are really nice additions to his game after being more a stopper last year. What his best position will become, is so up in the air and something that with improvement has the potential to evolve in any number of ways. On Marsh in the Maxwell role, not that Maxwell was a good kick, but Marsh is a poor kick and someone I'd be more inclined to play in harder, head to head roles, rather than looser roles. And in head to head roles he can still on occasions take his 1v1 and intercept marks. So that's more where I see him at this point. Maybe as a third key defender who can take either one of the key forwards, the resting ruck, or whoever the next tallest deep forward is.
...

You could well be right with Marsh in that he will be best suited to head to head roles. Outside of Cox he's arguably the most unknown quality on our list. At times he can look a nice kick, but other times shanks it badly. I think it comes down to time vs pressure or perceived pressure and general decision making. Ben Johnson was able to overcome poor kicking, while Toovey on the other hand sometimes still struggles when under pressure. Hopefully the next stage of development for Marsh is to add composure to his game along with a bit more run and carry, which he's also starting to show on occasion.

 

[Dynamics]

I love the bloke and can't wait for the club to welcome him back after he retires, but I couldn't agree less with the assessment of Lumumba the current day player, KM. His field kicking is atrocious and betrays his lack of footy nous - I spent years waiting for him to learn how to find team mates in space within 30 to 40 metres, but instead he continually insisted on trying to kick the bladder out of the ball with his eyes welded shut. He panics at the sight of a high ball and marks with hands like tennis racquets. So often it's funny to watch.

Varcoe is also a limited footballer, but he understands and reads the game much better than Lumumba and has far superior disposal. He also offers a scoring threat. I have no doubt at all in my mind that, barring injury, he will contribute much more to our side in the next couple of years than H would have.

Edit: I agree that Adams is not Luke Ball but neither was Luke Ball in his last year or two, which is why we brought Adams in. If we are ignoring thee ravages of age, then let's see if Lou Richards is free to play. I agree with you that we are yet to fill the holes left by Shaw and Maxy. Especially Heater, he's a great pick up for GWS who I will now be watching at Manuka every chance I get. But I was also sick of his petulant attitude and trust the coaching group's view that he had to move on. Which leaves Maxwell - I think that even those of us who doubted his worth can see that he's missed. I like Langdon but he's a different type, not as athletic as you say. Not as strong a leader, of course. If Marsh can sharpen his disposal he's the on field replacement, but I am pessimistic about grown men improving their kicking more than a little. It just doesn't happen often. Fingers crossed though as he is a real specimen physically and could hurt with that speed on the rebound. The kicker is Scharenberg. Slot him into the backline and I think you've actually got an improved back half. Fingers crossed for the kid.

I also think you are vastly underrating Crisp. He's no Beams, but he is a very, very good young footballer, already more than just a midfield pawn and still with scope to improve.

Overall I'd say we will finish somewhere between 8th and 12th, and expect finals next year.

 

[Knightmare]

I admit, I'm a fan of your assessment of kids leading into drafts but for me, this is the issue I have with your assessments of our team. You've discounted Crisp and his performances to date yet by your own admission you acknowledge You haven't even watched him closely.

Similarly early in the year you were discussing how, based on exposed TAC form, Moore doesn't display traits such as intercept marking and offensive rebound when playing in defense, yet these were all things he was doing in the VFL.

You're opinions of players seem unable to change once you've reached them despite people seeing evidence to the contrary.

Just out of curiosity how much VFL and senior footy do you watch?

Things can change. Coming into the season I didn't regard Crisp as a best 22 player, and now I'd rate around 10 on our list on where he fits on performance today on a fully healthy list. And my respect for the contested side of his game and stoppage work has increased as he has improved in this area. And his ball use has also improved and as such I'm less critical on his work by foot.

Also I was hope you noticed my above post and what I had to say about Marsh and his improvement going from a stopper who is starting to take some 1v1 and intercept marks.

But generally fundamentally players don't change their games so much. They're improve some bits and pieces slightly, or improve at what they do generally. But it's unusual that someone who can't kick suddenly learns to kick, someone who is slow suddenly becomes fast, or someone who can't win the contested footy suddenly wakes up and becomes a strong contested ball winner. With footballers you're generally looking at little changes and little improvements.

I'm watching every Collingwood game that is being posted onto the CollingwoodFC website. So I'm not missing a game as long as the games get posted onto the website.

Moore has only played the two VFL games this season, and from the two games has only taken the one mark. So he is hardly taking intercept marks or providing rebound with only the four efficient kicks from his two games. So fundamentally his game is the same as last year. He is getting bigger and stronger and has stepped up from the standout that he is able to compete with and match the bigger, older bodies. Offensively I'm seeing the same Moore as I did last year. Not an intercept marking or 1v1 marking threat and someone who will stylistically look to get the spoil first primarily.

 

[Knightmare]

I love the bloke and can't wait for the club to welcome him back after he retires, but I couldn't agree less with the assessment of Lumumba the current day player, KM. His field kicking is atrocious and betrays his lack of footy nous - I spent years waiting for him to learn how to find team mates in space within 30 to 40 metres, but instead he continually insisted on trying to kick the bladder out of the ball with his eyes welded shut. He panics at the sight of a high ball and marks with hands like tennis racquets. So often it's funny to watch.

Varcoe is also a limited footballer, but he understands and reads the game much better than Lumumba and has far superior disposal. He also offers a scoring threat. I have no doubt at all in my mind that, barring injury, he will contribute much more to our side in the next couple of years than H would have.

On Lumumba one finding with him is in his final two seasons with Collingwood. The major improvement in his game was that he went from a once long kick only where he would look every time he got it to kick it 55m, to in those last two seasons someone who would lower his eyes and find those 30-40m targets.

So I'd consider it a misnomer with Lumumba, a bit like Johnson not being able to kick, with the memory going too much to his historic perception rather than what he in more recent years was actually doing.

On both reading the game and using the ball. Lumumba I'd regard better in both categories. Lumumba was an able intercept mark for Collingwood. With Varcoe that's never been something he has done. Additionally as mentioned above, Lumumba by foot is fine. Varcoe on the other hand according to this years AFL Prospectus recorded "a below-average kick rating for a general defender", while additionally "gaining just 15 metres per disposals over the past three seasons, the 13th fewest of the 48 players to play for Geelong in that time." So on the offensive side of the ball Varcoe despite the perception that he can break the lines and kick, is not good in either category.

Then looking at the more generic and publically available stats, Lumumba led Varcoe in mark and kicking efficiency stats, and actually led Varcoe in each season by nearing 10% each season.

In terms of contribution over the next few years. I'd back Lumumba to offer more. He is a couple of years older, so you may not get as many years. But on performance, he offers superior ability. If he was to be used on a wing as he was in 2013, Lumumba could be a best 10 player for us again. Varcoe I'm not convinced is a best 20 player.
And the reasons for that being that offensively Lumumba offers much better run and carry, longer and more efficient kicking, a better linkup target and better ability to push behind the ball as required as a very capable backman.
For me they're both in an entirely different class. You're talking about an All Australian v someone in Varcoe who is a career 19-25 on list standard player.

 

[Knightmare]

You could well be right with Marsh in that he will be best suited to head to head roles. Outside of Cox he's arguably the most unknown quality on our list. At times he can look a nice kick, but other times shanks it badly. I think it comes down to time vs pressure or perceived pressure and general decision making. Ben Johnson was able to overcome poor kicking, while Toovey on the other hand sometimes still struggles when under pressure. Hopefully the next stage of development for Marsh is to add composure to his game along with a bit more run and carry, which he's also starting to show on occasion.

That run and carry is the big evolution I hope to see with Marsh. I don't know if you saw him through the u18s at all. But his ability to break the lines with ball in hand was flat out special. And in the u18s he was doing it a lot forward of centre which is much harder than in the back half where there is generally more time and space. So it's been that one element of his game that I've expected a lot more from, so I like yourself hope that aspect of his game particularly improves.

 

[Dynamics]

On Lumumba one finding with him is in his final two seasons with Collingwood. The major improvement in his game was that he went from a once long kick only where he would look every time he got it to kick it 55m, to in those last two seasons someone who would lower his eyes and find those 30-40m targets.

So I'd consider it a misnomer with Lumumba, a bit like Johnson not being able to kick, with the memory going too much to his historic perception rather than what he in more recent years was actually doing.

On both reading the game and using the ball. Lumumba I'd regard better in both categories. Lumumba was an able intercept mark for Collingwood. With Varcoe that's never been something he has done. Additionally as mentioned above, Lumumba by foot is fine. Varcoe on the other hand according to this years AFL Prospectus recorded "a below-average kick rating for a general defender", while additionally "gaining just 15 metres per disposals over the past three seasons, the 13th fewest of the 48 players to play for Geelong in that time." So on the offensive side of the ball Varcoe despite the perception that he can break the lines and kick, is not good in either category.

Then looking at the more generic and publically available stats, Lumumba led Varcoe in mark and kicking efficiency stats, and actually led Varcoe in each season by nearing 10% each season.

In terms of contribution over the next few years. I'd back Lumumba to offer more. He is a couple of years older, so you may not get as many years. But on performance, he offers superior ability. If he was to be used on a wing as he was in 2013, Lumumba could be a best 10 player for us again. Varcoe I'm not convinced is a best 20 player.
And the reasons for that being that offensively Lumumba offers much better run and carry, longer and more efficient kicking, a better linkup target and better ability to push behind the ball as required as a very capable backman.
For me they're both in an entirely different class. You're talking about an All Australian v someone in Varcoe who is a career 19-25 on list standard player.

Your stats definitely back up your opinion, I'll give you that.

But they don't sway mine (I place little stock in them when talking about playing ability and game sense in particular). I've watched H a couple of times this year and what I've seen hasn't swayed my opinion either.

Agree to disagree I guess - I can't offer more than my own gut feel which is far from compelling evidence!

 

[Bard]

Moore has only played the two VFL games this season, and from the two games has only taken the one mark. So he is hardly taking intercept marks or providing rebound with only the four efficient kicks from his two games. So fundamentally his game is the same as last year. He is getting bigger and stronger and has stepped up from the standout that he is able to compete with and match the bigger, older bodies. Offensively I'm seeing the same Moore as I did last year. Not an intercept marking or 1v1 marking threat and someone who will stylistically look to get the spoil first primarily.

I believe his best intercept games were those 2 or 3 practice VFL games (which were the first few rounds of the AFL season). I believe the first actual VFL game he was a fair bit down on his previous weeks' output (as was our entire VFL side), and then of course the following week he was injured halfway through, so unless we can get stats from those practice games - which are probably unavailable - we can't paint a proper picture.

 

[TradeDraft]

Witts has to be Dropped with the Shocking Forecast tommorow evening

 

[mattys123]

Witts has to be Dropped with the Shocking Forecast tommorow evening

Yeah interesting this.

The more times goes on the worst the forecast gets.

With Dwyer being the emergency held over if we make a late change it may be a tall and Witts would be the obvious one.

 

[Apex36]

If Sidebottom was in the team I'd rate him ahead of Elliott. Cloke if he was performing I regard more highly, but he's not. Reid isn't healthy so he can't this year be rated ahead of Elliott.

So to this point I'd definitely regard the correct order of best players to this point in the season to be: Pendlebury, Grundy, Elliott then Swan, with those 2-4 spots interchangable. Swan if he played less forward probably would be at the 2 spot, but has played too much forward where he has been ineffective and generally lacked impact, though in more recent weeks he has played more midfield which can move him up those standings.

Elliott is having an excellent season. Averaging 2 goals a game. On track to have well over 100 marks. Conversion in front of goal is reliable. Close second to Cloke in the clubs goalkicking.

Outside of Breust I would struggle to think of a small forward I favour - top of head. Cyril perhaps? Though I'd argue Elliott on consistency is better. It's not a long list.

I'm surprised by the surprise of others. Elliott is big time by position and a big factor in winning.

Sidebottom is in the team...

 

[Knightmare]

Sidebottom is in the team...

My point being Sidebottom has only played the two games for the season to this point. In the context of whether he would be ahead or behind Elliott in the B+F, of course Elliott would be ahead, with Elliott having played and Sidebottom mostly missing to this point in the season.

 

[Apex36]

My point being Sidebottom has only played the two games for the season to this point. In the context of whether he would be ahead or behind Elliott in the B+F, of course Elliott would be ahead, with Elliott having played and Sidebottom mostly missing to this point in the season.

That's a lousy, and completely flawed way of determining who is the better player.

 

[Knightmare]

That's a lousy, and completely flawed way of determining who is the better player.

Sidebottom is the better player. He'd be our second best player had he not missed a game. He was on a tare through the preseason and through that first round before he got subbed out.

My comments were in relation to who had been the best performers to this point in the season.

 

[TradeDraft]

Yeah interesting this.

The more times goes on the worst the forecast gets.

With Dwyer being the emergency held over if we make a late change it may be a tall and Witts would be the obvious one.

IF the weather is as bad as it’s Forecast we be too Top Heavy and Too Slow

 

[Magpie Girl]

Move over to the Game Day thread guys