List Mgmt. Christmas comes early (Nov 28 - 19 sleeps) - Draftee discussion

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What do you mean :tearsofjoy: Has anyone got the stats including contested possessions laying about?
At AFL he wont be an inside mid. His best abilities would be completely neutered playing in a role like that.
More a winger or outside leaning balanced mid cos of his pace.
I’m happy for you to debate that with yourself, I’m not playing. He’s an inside midfielder.
 

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Just to confuse some of you we currently have a total of 33 players (i'm including hurn) with main list contracts for 2023 and 2 rookies.

We can have a maximum of 38 players on the main list (we usually run with 37 and an extra rookie). 42 in total including regular rookies (not including Cat B rookies)

Assuming we draft 4 players in the national draft (remember we usually have 37 players on the main list) we'll be able to then select 3 rookies.

After all that I reckon we'll draft 4 in the main draft (unless someone unexpected is still available at our 5th selection) and draft 2 rookies. We'll keep a rookie selection for SSP.
 
Still ages until the draft and things have died down a bit so thought lets have draft quiz time!

  • What positions on the list do you want to see filled via the draft?
  • Who is your ideal top 4 picks (be reasonable)?
  • Who do you want late in the draft?
  • Rookie draft or rerookie Winder & Trew?
  • Where does Darcy Jones go pick wise?
  • Tsatas slips to our first pick along with Busslinger and Phillipou, who do you take?
  • What would make you melt/fold the club?
So I have somewhat answered the questions with my published list but happy to elaborate somewhat.

1667375123587.png

What positions on the list do you want to see filled via the draft?
  • inside and balanced mids as the main priority.
  • I usually like to take a tall each year and happy to do so this year but no more screwing up like the double down early on Brander and Oscar
  • I want to add to our half forwards, even if a balanced mid who starts there

Who is your ideal top 4 picks (be reasonable)?
8 - Phillipou (forward/mid) - If McKenzie there, I would prioritise him but not expecting him to still be there at 8
12 - Hewett (balanced mid) - Would also take Ginbey or McKenzie at 12 but not expecting either to last
20 - Hotton (mid/half forward) - Clarke would be another I would like
26 - Keeler (KPF) - if there is a great mid option like Burgiel, then take him and go for Foster late

Who do you want late in the draft?
- Smith (OK with Gilbey Foster or Broadbent late or as rookies)

Rookie draft or re-rookie Winder & Trew?
  • Trew - no, had his chance and missed it
  • Winder - not fussed but would see why if we re-rookie him

Where does Darcy Jones go pick wise?
- late second to third rounder

Tsatas slips to our first pick along with Busslinger and Phillipou, who do you take?
- Phillipou as I see a greater upside and could go a less risky mid at 12

What would make you melt/fold the club?
  • this is a midfielders draft so not taking 2 of the top 3 picks as balanced mids (1 balanced 1 inside OK)
  • going Allen before 26. Great combine but he did not show enough of these attributes in season to suggest he will be that great. He has had great development from family, school and Claremont so just another reason to see the combine as a minor input not a rushing change
  • A draft of 8 Ginbey, 12 Busslinger, 20 Allen and 26 Jones would be really disappointing

Ideally we take both Dewar and Baker in our NGA base

I am used to The Pieman not prioritising how I would. So what I would do probably bears no resemblance to what is cooked in the bakery.

There are so many combinations that I would be happy with. Hard to detail them all but here are a couple

Examples -

Scenario - "Get on the Bus Gus, Make a New Plan Stan"
8 - Busslinger
12 - Hewett
20 - Hotton or Burgiel
26 - Clarke

Scenario - "Cinderella and the speedy slipper"
8 - Tsatas
12 - Ginbey (Tsatas will need Ginbey to feed him)
20- Hewett (remote chance), Hotton, Burgiel,
26 - Clarke or Keeler

Scenario - "Local Local Local"
8 - Ginbey
12 - Busslinger
20 - Hewett
26 - Allan or Jones or Smith
 
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Right so unless someone pulls something Crazy I don't see Hewett no being available at our second. Now from that point on it gets interesting.

Hewett has had some character related rumours and issues during the year as well as not dominating. If he was dominating he would go top 5, I consider him in the top 5 talents in the draft group.

I don't have Melbourne pegged to a pick but i'm not sure he's their man.
I have Sydney taking Hustwaite and Keeler or Barnett (just a vibe and i have no solid info here)
I have GWS being a bit risk averse
Collingwood taking Hotton

If Tsatas gets through to our first pick due to 2 players being taken earlier I think he slides past us. Meaning that if Gold Coast take Ginbey (I still don't think they will) 3 of Mackenzie, Clark, Phillipou or Busslinger gets through to us. I think we would think of those and knowing West Coast Clark would be the only one that could get picked by us before Busslinger.

So lets assume we take Clarke.
Saints & Carlton take the combination of Mackenzie and Tsatas however particularly with Lyon now as head coach I have NFI how the saints play it. They could still go Jefferson.
Dogs take Busslinger

Phillipou is there at 13. Easy pick

From there the only pick I see being of trouble to us is pick 19 which will likely be traded for a combination of a second rounder this year and another one next year to whomever targets a player. Is that Hewett or who else has slid.

So in my mind Hewett is 50/50 or better to make our pick 20.

So all things going to the above plan.
8 Clark
12 Phillipou
20 Hewett
26 Barnett, Burgiel, Jakob Ryan in that order.

Secondary order
8 Busslinger
12 Phillipou
20 Hewett
26 Burgiel or Ryan

I would also not be surprised if dogs pulled a surprise and picked Hayes.

The above 2 are what I hope for, not what I think will happen.

Jones will go to freo at pick 30-33 wherever it lands unless Ed Allan is still available however I have him going to the hawks at pick 24.

I'm not going to point out who i feel we will select as it makes me sick to the stomach.

Word is Swans want to trade up for a specific player.

Humphrey? Busslinger?

Would you consider trading for 14 and 17?

Say 12 plus 26?

Or pick 8 and a future 3rd for 14 and 17?

Id do 12 plus 26. Or even better 12 plus ports F2nd for 14 and 17.

Go in with 8, 14, 17, 20 and 26.

8 Clark / Phillapou
14 Hewett
17 Hotton / Ginbey
20 Barnett
26 Burgeil / Clarke / Smith / ?
 
Word is Swans want to trade up for a specific player.

Humphrey? Busslinger?

Would you consider trading for 14 and 17?

Say 12 plus 26?

Or pick 8 and a future 3rd for 14 and 17?

Id do 12 plus 26. Or even better 12 plus ports F2nd for 14 and 17.

Go in with 8, 14, 17, 20 and 26.

8 Clark / Phillapou
14 Hewett
17 Hotton / Ginbey
20 Barnett
26 Burgeil / Clarke / Smith / ?
Could live with the below (or switch out 26 for Ports second as you've suggested but doubt they'll take that)
1667428320389.png


Would not be keen on packaging up 8 and seeing our first pick be at 12. Think there will be talent level at 8 that won't be available at 12+
 
Word is Swans want to trade up for a specific player.

Humphrey? Busslinger?

Would you consider trading for 14 and 17?

Say 12 plus 26?

Or pick 8 and a future 3rd for 14 and 17?

Id do 12 plus 26. Or even better 12 plus ports F2nd for 14 and 17.

Go in with 8, 14, 17, 20 and 26.

8 Clark / Phillapou
14 Hewett
17 Hotton / Ginbey
20 Barnett
26 Burgeil / Clarke / Smith / ?

If it is either of the players you mentioned I don't think they are there at 12.

So we would need to trade them pick 8 - which is much less appealing.
 
So I have somewhat answered the questions with my published list but happy to elaborate somewhat.

View attachment 1547834

What positions on the list do you want to see filled via the draft?
  • inside and balanced mids as the main priority.
  • I usually like to take a tall each year and happy to do so this year but no more screwing up like the double down early on Brander and Oscar
  • I want to add to our half forwards, even if a balanced mid who starts there

Who is your ideal top 4 picks (be reasonable)?
8 - Phillipou (forward/mid) - If McKenzie there, I would prioritise him but not expecting him to still be there at 8
12 - Hewett (balanced mid) - Would also take Ginbey or McKenzie at 12 but not expecting either to last
20 - Hotton (mid/half forward) - Clarke would be another I would like
26 - Keeler (KPF) - if there is a great mid option like Burgiel, then take him and go for Foster late

Who do you want late in the draft?
- Smith (OK with Gilbey Foster or Broadbent late or as rookies)

Rookie draft or re-rookie Winder & Trew?
  • Trew - no, had his chance and missed it
  • Winder - not fussed but would see why if we re-rookie him

Where does Darcy Jones go pick wise?
- late second to third rounder

Tsatas slips to our first pick along with Busslinger and Phillipou, who do you take?
- Phillipou as I see a greater upside and could go a less risky mid at 12

What would make you melt/fold the club?
  • this is a midfielders draft so not taking 2 of the top 3 picks as balanced mids (1 balanced 1 inside OK)
  • going Allen before 26. Great combine but he did not show enough of these attributes in season to suggest he will be that great. He has had great development from family, school and Claremont so just another reason to see the combine as a minor input not a rushing change
  • A draft of 8 Ginbey, 12 Busslinger, 20 Allen and 26 Jones would be really disappointing

Ideally we take both Dewar and Baker in our NGA base

I am used to The Pieman not prioritising how I would. So what I would do probably bears no resemblance to what is cooked in the bakery.

There are so many combinations that I would be happy with. Hard to detail them all but here are a couple

Examples -

Scenario - "Get on the Bus Gus, Make a New Plan Stan"
8 - Busslinger
12 - Hewett
20 - Hotton or Burgiel
26 - Clarke

Scenario - "Cinderella and the speedy slipper"
8 - Tsatas
12 - Ginbey (Tsatas will need Ginbey to feed him)
20- Hewett (remote chance), Hotton, Burgiel,
26 - Clarke or Keeler

Scenario - "Local Local Local"
8 - Ginbey
12 - Busslinger
20 - Hewett
26 - Allan or Jones or Smith
There must be 50 ways to draft a bolter.
 
Could live with the below (or switch out 26 for Ports second as you've suggested but doubt they'll take that)
View attachment 1548038


Would not be keen on packaging up 8 and seeing our first pick be at 12. Think there will be talent level at 8 that won't be available at 12+

I think there will be the same level of talent at 12 as at 8, you just don't have your pick of it. By the way I see busslinger on talent above pick 8.
 
Next to 0 chance that Hewett is available at 20 imo. Take him at 12 pls.

I'd be very happy to take him at 12...


But there is definitely a chance he gets through to 20.

If he has played the go-home card even slightly then I'd write GWS off (them trading a pick would be the main danger).

Melbourne I doubt would take him - their list needs are different (Jefferson I'd guess. Possibly Sam Hayes as May is 31 at the start of next year so would be a good succession plan)

Collingwood, I wouldn't think so - similar to Melbourne I think they look tall, or go for an outside mid type.

Sydney are the obvious danger. They have been linked to Hustwaite (? - may be Hotton, too many 'H' surnames in the mid-section of this draft!), and they may look for a key forward with Keeler, Jefferson (if there), etc as Buddy isn't getting younger!
 

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Could live with the below (or switch out 26 for Ports second as you've suggested but doubt they'll take that)
View attachment 1548038


Would not be keen on packaging up 8 and seeing our first pick be at 12. Think there will be talent level at 8 that won't be available at 12+

Agreed. I wouldn't trade 8 unless it was seriously a good offer.
 
I've definitely softened on Ginbey. I've been pro Buss the whole way through this process, but if we end up with the dude we wanted throughout, I reckon he's a solid pick.

I also think it'd be mad not to take Tsatas if he's free. At pick 8 when you have 12 you can take that risk. With a sole pick 2 you can't
 
I've definitely softened on Ginbey. I've been pro Buss the whole way through this process, but if we end up with the dude we wanted throughout, I reckon he's a solid pick.

I also think it'd be mad not to take Tsatas if he's free. At pick 8 when you have 12 you can take that risk. With a sole pick 2 you can't

I'll ask you a question Mop. If you were given the opportunity to draft Jared Polec in any year at pick 8, would you? Their junior games are so close it's hard to differentiate. Tsatas slightly quicker, Polec a better kick. Both outside but got a lot inside (mainly as first receiver) on the inside.

He is quick, he gets a lot of the ball but isn't damaging. His stats are like counting Ashcrofts possessions with all the 1-2's he gets.
 
I'll ask you a question Mop. If you were given the opportunity to draft Jared Polec in any year at pick 8, would you? Their junior games are so close it's hard to differentiate. Tsatas slightly quicker, Polec a better kick. Both outside but got a lot inside (mainly as first receiver) on the inside.

He is quick, he gets a lot of the ball but isn't damaging. His stats are like counting Ashcrofts possessions with all the 1-2's he gets.
Heh heh. Brisbane sure did - and I've said all along I've not watched young prospects at any sort of intensity for 10+ years so, I understand your finger is right on the pulse.
I get what you're saying. I understand the risk you propose. I'm not even saying you're wrong - you are paid in the football world, I'm paid to crush rocks.
You're saying that Elijah Tsatas is a fast player with a dicey kick who is soft as butter, his junior stats are near identical to those of 2010 draftee Polec who was taken at 5.

So, I don't at all want you to think I'm writing your opinion off - I think we all respect your beliefs and opinion.

I also wonder whether the potential of Elijah Tsatas is exactly what we lack. A very quick inside/outside type to upgrade on Gaff. We need speed.
 
I'll ask you a question Mop. If you were given the opportunity to draft Jared Polec in any year at pick 8, would you? Their junior games are so close it's hard to differentiate. Tsatas slightly quicker, Polec a better kick. Both outside but got a lot inside (mainly as first receiver) on the inside.

He is quick, he gets a lot of the ball but isn't damaging. His stats are like counting Ashcrofts possessions with all the 1-2's he gets.

Think it is unfair calling Tsatas a Polec type.

Polec failed the DH test. And was shown out the door.

There are plenty of quality AFL players with the same skills etc who are highly rated.
 
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I’m not big on trading pick 8 because by doing so there’d be 4 less players at 12 than at 8

However …

If one of Busslinger, Phillipou, Mackenzie or Hollands was still going to be there at 12 (because either Saints take Jefferson and/or Bulldogs take Hayes) then a trade of picks 8&26 to Sydney for 14,17&42 has some appeal

We then have
12 - Busslinger/Phillipou/Mackenzie/Hollands
14 - Hewett
17 - Hotton
20 - Keeler
42 - Smith

That’s a big if though as in all likelihood those 4 are gone by 12 and Sydney would need a serious hardon for someone at 8 to trade up
 
Polec was a good footballer with a multitude of attitude/personality/entitlement issues.
If Tsatas is Polec without the attitude problems, yeah, I'd take him at 8.

So a vic metro player who doesn't want to move out of victoria and has worse kicking?

No sense of entitlement at all.

No thanks.
 
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