So if we beat the Lions, or the Bombers, or both, we finish top of the table and are highly likely to face the Dees at The G, which is a 50:50 prospect. Lose that and we’re likely to face Carlton at The G. Again, a 50:50 prospect. I’d call that the doomsday double.
Alternatively, if we lose both remaining H&A games, we will slip to second and are highly likely to face Port at The G, which looks a much more probable win. Meanwhile Brisbane would host Melbourne at the Gabba, with the loser of that likely to face Carlton.
I really hate the idea of going into finals in losing form but there seems to be a significant advantage for us in finishing second, not first.
Strategically, losing this week keeps our options open. We can then decide whether or not to go for the win against the Bombers in the final round.
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If we win our last 2 and Dees win their last 2, then we'll play most likely play Brisbane in the QF at the MCG.