Contenders and Pretenders 2019 ( edited - Page 32 current discussion ) Are Richmond now the team to beat?

[Lsta062]

Good analysis, it’s been pretty obvious we have been struggling in games, particularly wins against Freo, Gold Coast and St Kilda. The only positive is that in winning those games, while losing that many quarters, it shows their peak is pretty high when they switch on. It’s all about getting that consistency.

Not a bad point. The counter would be that our draw to start the year has been pretty challenging (played 1,2,3,4,8,9 on the ladder) and we are obviously comfortable with easing into the season. A lot of our best 22 had late preseasons after surgery so it's not so bad being 6-3 without copping to many longterm injuries within the squad.

Our run home in the fixtures looks pretty decent right now too.

The 6-3 is definitely a positive for a team not playing at their best since it gives West Coast the record they need for an impactful season if they find their Premiership form.

It’s just that I think they need to find it sooner rather than later so they can be well prepared for finals. As you know from the 2018 Grand Final, one 5 goal quarter doesn’t win a Premiership generally speaking. West Coast’s consistency over 3 quarters gave them the Premiership over Collingwood’s one-quarter burst, and this in-game consistency is something that West Coast pulled off over and over again in the 2018 season. I just want to see more of that from them this year. Their 5 or 6-goal bursts are getting them the wins they need right now, but I feel like consistency is more reliable and sustainable when it comes to winning the Premiership.

Hopefully they can go back to more 3 or 4-quarter performances that we have seen a lot of last year. It’s great to see that they have less long-term injuries this time around though so that should help.

 

[Coaster2012]

If WC are in with a sniff in the 4th, they tend to win. Loving that prospect if we actually hit good form. But 4 wins in a row now with a relatively easy run. Cant say I'm disappointed.

 

[Macpotata]

Holy **** if the Eagles bring that pressure and spirit which they showed in the second half against the Crows they'd win the cup by the Flemington Straight.


The big and burning question is if.

 

[tony__montana]

Holy **** if the Eagles bring that pressure and spirit which they showed in the second half against the Crows they'd win the cup by the Flemington Straight.


The big and burning question is if.

JUst reminded us all that their best is still good enough. Very impressive 2nd half

Pies still the team to beat for mine, but this side has the wood over them so what would I know

 

[Gavin Excell]

Holy **** if the Eagles bring that pressure and spirit which they showed in the second half against the Crows they'd win the cup by the Flemington Straight.


The big and burning question is if.

I think to win it eagles have to finish top 2

 

[Mantastic]

I think to win it eagles have to finish top 2

They could finish 3rd and get Pies first up. They'll probably have to beat them at the G in September regardless, so wouldn't change much.

 

[Gavin Excell]

They could finish 3rd and get Pies first up. They'll probably have to beat them at the G in September regardless, so wouldn't change much.

Its more by finishing outside of 1st and 2nd will mean having to travel at least twice to win it.

Just feel thats a tough ask

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Its more by finishing outside of 1st and 2nd will mean having to travel at least twice to win it.

Just feel thats a tough ask

Haven’t lost in Melbourne for quite a while

The finals bye mitigates a lot of the travel - especially if you win week 1 in the top 4

The bigger issue is finding form - we find small pockets of it - it’s almost like we are waiting for it to click

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

It's an interesting dynamic at the moment. Geelong has been far and away the most impressive side so far: best record, best percentage by far, best 'bad' performance (the only team that could have easily won its worst game this year and that was against a quality opponent), an extra gear in the fourth quarter which will make fairly close games seem like easy wins (Adelaide, North Melbourne, Bulldogs, Gold Coast) when people look back on the season. Good form at the MCG and interstate. Of course, the Cats recent September record makes people dubious about them, but it's been a long time since Geelong's clearly been the standout team this far into the season: they've typically been one of the pack of 3-5 who look like they could be contenders. It's a great second half run for Geelong as well, hard to see them finishing worse than, say, 17-5 from here.

Then there's the added wrinkle that three of the big premiership fancies of the preseason (Richmond, West Coast and Collingwood - the last two premiers and the last runner up) are in the mix and have put together 4-5 wins from their last five, despite being a bit up and down. The others who look like potentially being able to challenge for top four this year, GWS and Brisbane, have huge away challenges today. If both lose, it looks like a pretty clear top four to me.

Richmond, West Coast and Collingwood all seem to have tougher runs home than Geelong, so the Cats definitely have the inside track for top spot from here.

 

[Macpotata]

The Best - Geelong
Their Best - The West

Eagles have the best and most impressive wins over any other team in the comp. Beating the Magpies convincingly at the MCG was a massive statement and the best scalp of them all thus far in season 2019. Smashing GWS the week before very impressive, and they have no choice but to stand up today and take care of Melbourne. Even that won't be enough, but enough for now. Hawks belted em, Dockers upstaged them and as mentioned the Eagles obliterated them. Back on West Coast and yesterdays win was massive at a hostile venue overcoming a 33 point deficit which is as good as an 8 goal+ margin if it were played at home. The Eagles also rallied last week with an impressive hard fought victory against the Dees when all looked lost. Injuries, up and down form, facing a team who were buoyed and rejuvenated after having b2b wins as well as a point to prove back on the scene of the crime where they were humiliated in last years Prelim. Said it several times in this thread that if the Eagles displayed their rounds 2 and 3 form no one would get within ear shot of them. That's the big if. But the last two weeks but more so yesterday, particularly in the second half, the Eagles have emulated what they did in rounds 2 and 3.

Potential to be the best - Collingwood. Also said it many times in this thread that they will win the flag. They've been my pick since day dot and I've stood by that and will continue to do so. I've always looked at the big picture and am still believing in them to come good at the right time. An 8-2 record proves they're a dangerous team and they've set themselves a big platform to launch from for the rest of the season. Top 4 and they're a massive threat and are odds on to stay in the 4. Scary proposition for any side to encounter come finals time. Have been beaten twice by heavyweights Geelong and West Coast and simply can't deal with the Eagles.

The '' other '' Contender - Richmond. Still have to beat a heavyweight or do they? Who did the Pies beat last year before the finals? A Melbourne side that didn't really beat anyone until the finals ( or just before in a game of dubious umpiring in Perth against an injury hit WCE ) the difference is the Tigers are a proven side. And to top that off they've had their fair share of injuries. Fair in being kind, they've been ripped to shreds by absentees, and big one's at that. Richmond were Premiership favourites for most of last year, if not all of last year. They've answered many challenges thrown their way in Season 2019 and like West Coast and Collingwood give themselves a massive launching pad to jump off of with an impressive 7-3 start to their campaign. Serious talent has emerged in Sydney Stack and other lesser knowns have stepped up when needed. Like West Coast is Collingwood's '' bogey '' team, Collingwood is Richmond's. All that matters is what you do come finals though which is why the GWS Giants have to be thrown into the contender equation too. Face the Dees today in a ground where they've won only twice in 16 occasions. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lose today to a cold Melbourne team. Wouldn't be surprised to see them win by 60+ either. Regardless of today's result we won't know a whole lot more about the Giants as the Dees have just a handful of wins in 2019. A loss for the short term will hinder their MCG confidence even more however and won't do them any good for future games. Things do change in life and in footy and things change very quickly. Can't not be considered a contender but for the time being maybe just a fraction below the rest. Did beat Geelong in Geelong inflicting the Cats only loss for the year to date.

1. Geelong+West Coast
1.5 Collingwood
2. Richmond
3. GWS
4. Forget about the rest


West Coast back on level terms for me as the favourite for this years flag along with Geelong. Just a massive win yesterday which gives them incredible self belief on the back of another great battle tested and answered win the week before against Melbourne. Rounds 2 and 3 they smashed A-Grade Sides and with the form of the last two weeks or more so the resolve and ability to answer they still proved they have what it takes when it takes to match it with whoever and wherever, whenever. Ahead of the Pies as Collingwood can't match it with the Blue and Gold and they also lost to the Catters who don't look as convincing to me now. Still a favourite though. The Pies I've got just slightly behind because of what they did last year in the finals and what they'll do this year in the finals imo as well as their impressive 8-2 record. Richmond below as Collingwood have dispatched of them and still have to have a big scalp but as mentioned boast a good record themselves while also playing short handed.

The '' Others ''

Lions, Hawks. Lions have a great record and a fast forming fortress again in the GABBA and the Hawks who I've also mentioned various times pre-season and during won't do a whole lot in Season 2019. But will do a whole lot of damage. '' Will shape how the 8 and four sets '' and certainly have and certainly will. A solid side who if were fuly healthy would be a threat for the four.

Crows/Freo/Port/Bombers pretty much anyone apart from Carlton are a chance to sneak into 8th spot. Gold Coast, Roos, Saints, can't say I fancy them but they're in the mix and can't be ruled out. Swans are teetering but given their history and champion player crop also can't be discounted. Dogs are just outside but they keep taking one step forward two steps back. Bombers, refer the above. My guess at this stage would be in no order

Cats
Pies
Eagles
Tigers
Giants
Crows
Lions
Flip a coin ( Ess/Freo )

 

[Gavin Excell]

Haven’t lost in Melbourne for quite a while

The finals bye mitigates a lot of the travel - especially if you win week 1 in the top 4

The bigger issue is finding form - we find small pockets of it - it’s almost like we are waiting for it to click

Agree the bye assists.

But still if Eagles finish 3rd or 4th likely match up be pne of Pies, cats or Tigers. In other words in Melb.

Win that- then yes home prelim but lose means another 2 trips to play in GF.

3 trips in 4 weeks big finals tough by any measure

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Agree the bye assists.

But still if Eagles finish 3rd or 4th likely match up be pne of Pies, cats or Tigers. In other words in Melb.

Win that- then yes home prelim but lose means another 2 trips to play in GF.

3 trips in 4 weeks big finals tough by any measure

The reality is - just need to win week 1 - regardless of whether we are top 2 or not.

As mentoined though - WC last year - i would back to win two away games

This year - just too many quarters of going completely missing.

Still no idea how we are 7-3. Form wise - we are a ways behind the pack i reckon

 

[jatz14]

The problem that I have with West Coast is the amount of quarters they have won.

They have won 15 quarters for the year, which is the same as Carlton and Melbourne and only one above Western Bulldogs and Sydney. This puts them in the bottom 6 for quarters won competition wide. To me, this indicates that they are struggling on a quarter to quarter basis more than a contender should.

In contrast, they won 28 quarters in the first 10 rounds of their 2018 Premiership year. Their 6-3 win/loss record is solid, but if they are unable to win more quarters than they have been, then they'll start running into teams that will not allow them to have 5 or 6-goal quarters to push them over the line. They need to rectify this as the Premiership sides since 2012 came from teams that are in the top 8 for quarters won.

Eagles still haven't found real form. But what the Crows game shows is that when they are on, they play about the best footy in the country. 2 good quarters wins them most games, 3 good quarters probably wins all of them.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

 

[Sttew]

Eagles still haven't found real form. But what the Crows game shows is that when they are on, they play about the best footy in the country. 2 good quarters wins them most games, 3 good quarters probably wins all of them.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

And when they are not on they are woeful.

 

[Rotayjay]

I was clinging to a sliver of hope that we had turned it around and had graduated from 'average side' to 'chance for the top 4'.

Nope, average side. 7th - 13th here we come.

 

[nahnah]

Contenders: Geelong, West Coast, Pies

Not sold on Giants yet

 

[juss]

The flag will come from one of Collingwood, Geelong, Giants, Eagles or Tigers.

Cant put it any more simply than that. Not sure which one, will depend on form and personel in September, but 99% sure one of them wins it.

 

[kaiserchief13]

And when they are not on they are woeful.

Enjoy playing a home final against Richmond/Collingwood at MCG

 

[jatz14]

And when they are not on they are woeful.

Which is why they have 3 losses. However, as they build into the season, the number of quarters they are on per game is more likely to go up than down.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

 

[Lsta062]

Eagles still haven't found real form. But what the Crows game shows is that when they are on, they play about the best footy in the country. 2 good quarters wins them most games, 3 good quarters probably wins all of them.

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk

Yeah their game yesterday was actually much closer to what I was looking out for. Yeah they had one terrible quarter (5 goals to 0), but they were the more consistent side of the two. They won 3 quarters with the second half producing a 10 goals to 3 in favour of the Eagles.

 

[Lsta062]

Contenders: Geelong, West Coast, Pies

Not sold on Giants yet

Look, I am not seeking to turn this into a Richmond and Collingwood fight, because that already happens way too much on the main board.

I just want to ask a genuine question. Why don’t you think Richmond are contenders this season?

 

[nahnah]

Look, I am not seeking to turn this into a Richmond and Collingwood fight, because that already happens way too much on the main board.

I just want to ask a genuine question. Why don’t you think Richmond are contenders this season?

I can’t see them beating the 3 teams I labeled contenders. I think there is the top 3, then a gap, then GWS and Richmond then another gap then the others that will make the finals

 

[Macpotata]

I think to win it eagles have to finish top 2

You'd think so mate but there are many variables to come into play of course.

I'd fancy the Pies or Tige's over them too if they were to play at the MCG, but it is just one game. That goes both ways. Sure the crowd factor is huge, and huge in a finals. But on that

1. West Coast rolled the Maggies at the G last year, and did it again IN the Grand Final.
West Coast rolled them at the G again this year.
What if the Eagles bring their A-Game like they did in rounds 2+3 as well as yesterday.


Logically yeah many would agree. But it is the reigning Premiers who are proven. Last year logically Richmond were supposed to go B2B once they were playing on '' Fortress '' MCG.

 

[Macpotata]

I can’t see them beating the 3 teams I labeled contenders. I think there is the top 3, then a gap, then GWS and Richmond then another gap then the others that will make the finals

Your opinion which you're obviously entitled too. Many thought your boys couldn't crack the Tige's last year in the Prelim after losing to them twice already during the home and away year.

Richmond could beat any of the big 3 you mention imo.

 

[nahnah]

Your opinion which you're obviously entitled too. Many thought your boys couldn't crack the Tige's last year in the Prelim after losing to them twice already during the home and away year.

Richmond could beat any of the big 3 you mention imo.

Well as the tiger poster said to avoid another pies v tiges argument I won’t go too in depth but it was pretty clear (to us at least) that we could beat them with a fair run
It’s all opinions at the end of the day, time will tell but I’d only be willing to put money on the three I said