Contenders and Pretenders 2019 ( edited - Page 32 current discussion ) Are Richmond now the team to beat?

[Madtiger2006]

I keep thinking Geelong won’t get there. Started well

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Because no one predicted this sort of form before the season started from Geelong..

Speak for yourself

 

[Shadow89]

So...we were missing Atkins, Menegola, Ratugolea and Stanley, from our best side on the weekend, with Danger carrying a few niggles and only playing at 70%, and Selwood having missed the past 2 games/not in his best form, and we've apparently 'peaked'? This despite the fact that we were on par with the Bulldogs who were in good form after beating fellow finals contenders in Richmond and Brisbane, who we then ended up beating by 7 goals, with a debutant in Fort and a 5 game depth ruck in Abbott?

To be honest, I tend to take the opposite view, that we actually aren't playing anywhere near our best footy yet. Our best game of the year was against West Coast, where we walloped them at home by 58 points, and it didn't even seem like we got out of second gear. Tuohy was also missing up until Round 6. This was, IMO, our best 22 (with only Cockatoo missing who is an LTI). That means, players like Scooter, Bews, Henderson, Fogarty, Narkle, are just depth at this stage, when they were best 22 last year.

While our injuries have gone under the radar compared with other clubs like Richmond, Hawthorn, Port and Melbourne, we've still had players that have been copping issues/not at full strength due to soreness/niggles etc. We've basically turned around our reliance on Danger and Selwood, to the point where Selwood not playing, and Danger on one leg, didn't make that much of a difference when we faced Essendon. Add both of them in, performing at full capacity, with more games into our youngsters, and our depth pushing for spots, I think we're in a better position that most would have imagined or predicted.

While I agree that the real test will come in finals, I do vehemently disagree with the notion that we've 'peaked', given the aforementioned. If anything, we've still got a lot of improvement to come.

 

[HTT]

Anyway, anybody who had written us off for 2019 subscribes to the level of football analysis in this country which is a variant of 'they've been good for a while so surely they're due to drop down the ladder.'

Anybody who actually watched us play in 2018 would have seen that a lack of forward pressure was our significant shortcoming. Tom Hawkins had an AA quality season but had very little support and we were often having to shoehorn midfielders like Menegola and Parfitt into forward roles they weren't suited to.

Despite this we finished two games out of the top 4 with the second best percentage in the comp. We lost a combined 4 games to Richmond and Hawthorn by margins of 1, 3, 8, 11. All of those games were in the balance until the final minute and we were inches away from winning at least a couple.

We led WCE in Perth by three goals midway through the last quarter until we were down to one on the bench and we got overrun.

I don't think we were a great team last year but we weren't too far off it - appalling performance in the EF notwithstanding.

It was pretty clear to Geelong fans that our defense was excellent, our midfield very good with RFI and our forward line was costing us games. Targeted recruitments of Dahlhaus and Rohan to improve forward pressure, finally playing a fit specialist small forward in Miers after years of McCarthy/Gregson/Cockatoo being injured and Ablett being moved forward to take advantage of his exquisite ball use and finishing skills have paid off so far.

There's a long way to go, but anyone surprised that we've improved in 2019 isn't paying enough attention....

The rest of your post is right on but the mid year game between our sides wasn’t that close. 18pts, in the balance till late but not at the death.

 

[biggiemediums]

I just think the term “hitting your peak early” is an over used term that doesn’t really mean much. West Coast won 10 in a row from Round 2 last year. Ultimately it made very little difference.

I am not disagreeing that the likes of Richmond and West Coast especially will get better, but hitting your peak early is seen as a weird negative at times when in general, the premiership team still starts the season of well. There are some exceptions, but usually, the flag winning team is good from the get go.

This. It's such an overused bullshit term now that some of the posters who tend to not think things through; equate playing good early in the year with 'peaking early'. Like there's some rule that you only have 10 good games in you and if they're in the first half of the year, you're ****ed.

It's so silly and not grounded in any logic.

 

[fpm84]

So...we were missing Atkins, Menegola, Ratugolea and Stanley, from our best side on the weekend, with Danger carrying a few niggles and only playing at 70%, and Selwood having missed the past 2 games/not in his best form, and we've apparently 'peaked'? This despite the fact that we were on par with the Bulldogs who were in good form after beating fellow finals contenders in Richmond and Brisbane, who we then ended up beating by 7 goals, with a debutant in Fort and a 5 game depth ruck in Abbott?

To be honest, I tend to take the opposite view, that we actually aren't playing anywhere near our best footy yet. Our best game of the year was against West Coast, where we walloped them at home by 58 points, and it didn't even seem like we got out of second gear. Tuohy was also missing up until Round 6. This was, IMO, our best 22 (with only Cockatoo missing who is an LTI). That means, players like Scooter, Bews, Henderson, Fogarty, Narkle, are just depth at this stage, when they were best 22 last year.

While our injuries have gone under the radar compared with other clubs like Richmond, Hawthorn, Port and Melbourne, we've still had players that have been copping issues/not at full strength due to soreness/niggles etc. We've basically turned around our reliance on Danger and Selwood, to the point where Selwood not playing, and Danger on one leg, didn't make that much of a difference when we faced Essendon. Add both of them in, performing at full capacity, with more games into our youngsters, and our depth pushing for spots, I think we're in a better position that most would have imagined or predicted.

While I agree that the real test will come in finals, I do vehemently disagree with the notion that we've 'peaked', given the aforementioned. If anything, we've still got a lot of improvement to come.

Great post.

 

[Duskfire]

Because no one predicted this sort of form before the season started from Geelong. You reckon you've been poor in the last fortnight yet claim you're not at peak - yeah nah you haven't been poor all season and you wouldn't find many if any that agree with you on that. It's clear teams like Coll & WC still have gears but they're only showing glimpses of true form but it's not clear with Geelong - one could argue they're at potential at the minute.

Geelong has been playing Selwood and Duncan on the wing, Danger has been injured and playing in bursts, they have been resting players all season. Constable has more centre minutes then Selwood because they are trying to conserve the old boy for deep in the season. They aren’t playing at their peak.

However, that’s not saying much because we all know for a fact that Richmond and West Coast can play better, and that may still be better then Geelongs.

Geelongs plan is obviously get enough wins on the board while resting a player or two every game and be ready for finals. This isn’t their first rodeo, they aren’t a new team who is going to throw caution to the wind and go nuts every game.

 

[tony__montana]

So...we were missing Atkins, Menegola, Ratugolea and Stanley, from our best side on the weekend, with Danger carrying a few niggles and only playing at 70%, and Selwood having missed the past 2 games/not in his best form, and we've apparently 'peaked'? This despite the fact that we were on par with the Bulldogs who were in good form after beating fellow finals contenders in Richmond and Brisbane, who we then ended up beating by 7 goals, with a debutant in Fort and a 5 game depth ruck in Abbott?

To be honest, I tend to take the opposite view, that we actually aren't playing anywhere near our best footy yet. Our best game of the year was against West Coast, where we walloped them at home by 58 points, and it didn't even seem like we got out of second gear. Tuohy was also missing up until Round 6. This was, IMO, our best 22 (with only Cockatoo missing who is an LTI). That means, players like Scooter, Bews, Henderson, Fogarty, Narkle, are just depth at this stage, when they were best 22 last year.

While our injuries have gone under the radar compared with other clubs like Richmond, Hawthorn, Port and Melbourne, we've still had players that have been copping issues/not at full strength due to soreness/niggles etc. We've basically turned around our reliance on Danger and Selwood, to the point where Selwood not playing, and Danger on one leg, didn't make that much of a difference when we faced Essendon. Add both of them in, performing at full capacity, with more games into our youngsters, and our depth pushing for spots, I think we're in a better position that most would have imagined or predicted.

While I agree that the real test will come in finals, I do vehemently disagree with the notion that we've 'peaked', given the aforementioned. If anything, we've still got a lot of improvement to come.

fair post

 

[ChappyUK]

This is exactly my thinking re: Geelong. I simply feel they are playing their peak footy, whereas Richmond, Eagles and Collingwood all have an extra gear that we have seen, both recently and this season. And they are only 1 and 2 games behind them. Maybe Geelong will surprise me and maintain this form all year, maybe the others are showing their current form and will never find that extra gear. But all are well placed.

We didn't play very well, just efficiently, against the Doggies and played our weakest 22 of the year.

 

[Carringbush2010]

So Collingwood being challenged by St Kilda for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win means the team has gears, but Geelong being challenged by the Bulldogs for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win doesn’t mean we have gears?

Got it.

No you've misinterpreted my post, apart from the dogs (which it was always in control anyway) the cats have been playing very good footy consistently. Are they at peak? I don't know, it's not an assumption it's a question. If they are at peak can they continue all the way? Not likely, my guess is no better or worse than yours.

FWIW, the saints had control of us and looked likely to win - particularly in the 2nd, says more about them then us. The dogs are a decent team and are able to challenge any team if they're on.

From what I can gather you seem to think I'm assuming the cats are at full tilt and that's it. I'm not, I'm merely asking the question, as for teams like coll & wc they're only showing quarters and minutes of possibly their best - that's an obvious.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Speak for yourself

Ok then, certainly not the majority.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Ok then, certainly not the majority.

The majority had us missing the top 8 completely. It was mind-blowing.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Geelong has been playing Selwood and Duncan on the wing, Danger has been injured and playing in bursts, they have been resting players all season. Constable has more centre minutes then Selwood because they are trying to conserve the old boy for deep in the season. They aren’t playing at their peak.

However, that’s not saying much because we all know for a fact that Richmond and West Coast can play better, and that may still be better then Geelongs.

Geelongs plan is obviously get enough wins on the board while resting a player or two every game and be ready for finals. This isn’t their first rodeo, they aren’t a new team who is going to throw caution to the wind and go nuts every game.

If you're talking injuries then no one can be at their consistent best, but they're playing consistent champagne footy. The same can't be said for any other team - fits and starts at best with only glimpses of really good footy.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

If you're talking injuries then no one can be at their consistent best, but they're playing consistent champagne footy. The same can't be said for any other team - fits and starts at best with only glimpses of really good footy.

We've been ordinary for the last two weeks and being at the game on Saturday I saw players that weren't working hard enough or paying their opponents any respect. It looks as though either complacency has crept in or they're simply tired after a testing opening to the season where our intensity and pressure was immense. Before the weekend we'd only used 26 players which has probably had an affect.

If you look back at previous seasons, the month of May hasn't been too favourable for us, results wise.

 

[Carringbush2010]

The majority had us missing the top 8 completely. It was mind-blowing.

That's my point.

 

[Carringbush2010]

We've been ordinary for the last two weeks and being at the game on Saturday I saw players that weren't working hard enough or paying their opponents any respect. It looks as though either complacency has crept in or they're simply tired after a testing opening to the season where our intensity and pressure was immense. Before the weekend we'd only used 26 players which has probably had an affect.

If you look back at previous seasons, the month of May hasn't been too favourable for us, results wise.

The last two weeks you haven't that bad but doing enough to win, all the marks of a contender.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Anyway, anybody who had written us off for 2019 subscribes to the level of football analysis in this country which is a variant of 'they've been good for a while so surely they're due to drop down the ladder.'

Anybody who actually watched us play in 2018 would have seen that a lack of forward pressure was our significant shortcoming. Tom Hawkins had an AA quality season but had very little support and we were often having to shoehorn midfielders like Menegola and Parfitt into forward roles they weren't suited to.

Despite this we finished two games out of the top 4 with the second best percentage in the comp. We lost a combined 4 games to Richmond and Hawthorn by margins of 1, 3, 8, 11. All of those games were in the balance until the final minute and we were inches away from winning at least a couple.

We led WCE in Perth by three goals midway through the last quarter until we were down to one on the bench and we got overrun.

I don't think we were a great team last year but we weren't too far off it - appalling performance in the EF notwithstanding.

It was pretty clear to Geelong fans that our defense was excellent, our midfield very good with RFI and our forward line was costing us games. Targeted recruitments of Dahlhaus and Rohan to improve forward pressure, finally playing a fit specialist small forward in Miers after years of McCarthy/Gregson/Cockatoo being injured and Ablett being moved forward to take advantage of his exquisite ball use and finishing skills have paid off so far.

There's a long way to go, but anyone surprised that we've improved in 2019 isn't paying enough attention....

Oh agree with all that wholeheartedly, in particular Rohan and Dahlhaus has caught the so called "experts" off guard and adds unpredictability for opp defences. IMV this team IS a contender and not a pretender - certainly on current form and they've got a list of players to come back that can back up the way they play their footy.

 

[Vindicater]

Essendon won this week so we are contenders...


...until we lose next week and are pretenders

 

[Lsta062]

The problem that I have with West Coast is the amount of quarters they have won.

They have won 15 quarters for the year, which is the same as Carlton and Melbourne and only one above Western Bulldogs and Sydney. This puts them in the bottom 6 for quarters won competition wide. To me, this indicates that they are struggling on a quarter to quarter basis more than a contender should.

In contrast, they won 28 quarters in the first 10 rounds of their 2018 Premiership year. Their 6-3 win/loss record is solid, but if they are unable to win more quarters than they have been, then they'll start running into teams that will not allow them to have 5 or 6-goal quarters to push them over the line. They need to rectify this as the Premiership sides since 2012 came from teams that are in the top 8 for quarters won.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

We haven’t peaked, in fact our last 2 weeks haven’t been that great, we’ve played in patches and during those have been able to pile on multiple goals.

The jury is still out on us with finals, regardless of how good we look now, sitting 8-1 on top, we can go 21-1 in the H&A but it’s all down to finals and whether we can stand up, have been pretty average in them since 2011 GF.

 

[Duskfire]

We haven’t peaked, in fact our last 2 weeks haven’t been that great, we’ve played in patches and during those have been able to pile on multiple goals.

The jury is still out on us with finals, regardless of how good we look now, sitting 8-1 on top, we can go 21-1 in the H&A but it’s all down to finals and whether we can stand up, have been pretty average in them since 2011 GF.

I don’t think it’s necessarily finals that screws Geelong but more so the bye. Even the mid-season bye Geelong have lost the vast majority of recent ones. For whatever reason any rest the Cats play like shit. How they play after the bye will tell a lot.

 

[Forward Press]

The pretenders

West Coast
Geelong
Melbourne


In that order.

GWS are more of a threat than the Eagles, Cats and Dees and they're outside the 8. They'll come home strong though if they get past the Hawks tonight. If.

lulz

 

[Macpotata]

Re the Pies. I think they will peak at the right time. They also have the knowledge and experience of doing exactly that last year. Peaking at the right time. They have the perfect blend needed to scalp a prem with the player crop they possess as well as that heartache from last year. That's why I have so much belief in them. They're a dangerous bunch too and the home crowd is massive for them ( as it is for any side ) but playing at the MCG in September for them as well as the points already mentioned, they're going to be damn hard to stop.

 

[JackOutback]

The problem that I have with West Coast is the amount of quarters they have won.

They have won 15 quarters for the year, which is the same as Carlton and Melbourne and only one above Western Bulldogs and Sydney. This puts them in the bottom 6 for quarters won competition wide. To me, this indicates that they are struggling on a quarter to quarter basis more than a contender should.

In contrast, they won 28 quarters in the first 10 rounds of their 2018 Premiership year. Their 6-3 win/loss record is solid, but if they are unable to win more quarters than they have been, then they'll start running into teams that will not allow them to have 5 or 6-goal quarters to push them over the line. They need to rectify this as the Premiership sides since 2012 came from teams that are in the top 8 for quarters won.

Good analysis, it’s been pretty obvious we have been struggling in games, particularly wins against Freo, Gold Coast and Saints. The only positive is that in winning those games, while losing that many quarters, it shows their peak is pretty high when they switch on. It’s all about getting that consistency.

 

[Corkintheocean]

The problem that I have with West Coast is the amount of quarters they have won.

They have won 15 quarters for the year, which is the same as Carlton and Melbourne and only one above Western Bulldogs and Sydney. This puts them in the bottom 6 for quarters won competition wide. To me, this indicates that they are struggling on a quarter to quarter basis more than a contender should.

In contrast, they won 28 quarters in the first 10 rounds of their 2018 Premiership year. Their 6-3 win/loss record is solid, but if they are unable to win more quarters than they have been, then they'll start running into teams that will not allow them to have 5 or 6-goal quarters to push them over the line. They need to rectify this as the Premiership sides since 2012 came from teams that are in the top 8 for quarters won.

Not a bad point. The counter would be that our draw to start the year has been pretty challenging (played 1,2,3,4,8,9 on the ladder) and we are obviously comfortable with easing into the season. A lot of our best 22 had late preseasons after surgery so it's not so bad being 6-3 without copping to many longterm injuries within the squad.

Our run home in the fixtures looks pretty decent right now too.