Contenders and Pretenders 2019 ( edited - Page 32 current discussion ) Are Richmond now the team to beat?

[Coaster2012]

So are you going to back Richmond or West Coast? Or hedge your bets and go a little each way?

How much did you bet on the Swans last season? Or maybe you backed Port? Both were 6-3 after 9 rounds and were playing fairly ordinary footy, imagine how unbeatable they'd have been if they found some form.

Relying on a team to find form to be a contender means that, right now, they're not a contender.

Swans and Port didn't win a flag the year before. You also have seemed to have forgotten that Eagles beat Pies comfortably at the G already. Our potential is up there with the best. You are also discrediting the fact that we get NN back soon too which makes us a better side. To quote 2 random teams that were 6 and 3 last season isn't convincing anyone and convintently leaving out the Pies who were 5-4.

Enjoy being 1st in May. But there's alot of footy to be played out and I'll happily take 2nd gear this time of year and still be 1 game off 2nd. Eagles are contenders. To write them off now is just stupid.

 

[JackOutback]

Potential matters, if it didn't then Brisbane would be being talked about as legitimate contenders, but we don't have many more levels to go up so we aren't.

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This is exactly my thinking re: Geelong. I simply feel they are playing their peak footy, whereas Richmond, Eagles and Collingwood all have an extra gear that we have seen, both recently and this season. And they are only 1 and 2 games behind them. Maybe Geelong will surprise me and maintain this form all year, maybe the others are showing their current form and will never find that extra gear. But all are well placed.

 

[Dazzler9]

It's all about peaking in September (assuming these teams bank enough wins to make top 4). Any of WC, Pies, GWS and Richmond may all reach peak form in September, or maybe Geelong will maintain their current form all the way until then. All 5 are contenders as of right now.

 

[Duskfire]

This is exactly my thinking re: Geelong. I simply feel they are playing their peak footy, whereas Richmond, Eagles and Collingwood all have an extra gear that we have seen, both recently and this season. And they are only 1 and 2 games behind them. Maybe Geelong will surprise me and maintain this form all year, maybe the others are showing their current form and will never find that extra gear. But all are well placed.

I just think the term “hitting your peak early” is an over used term that doesn’t really mean much. West Coast won 10 in a row from Round 2 last year. Ultimately it made very little difference.

I am not disagreeing that the likes of Richmond and West Coast especially will get better, but hitting your peak early is seen as a weird negative at times when in general, the premiership team still starts the season of well. There are some exceptions, but usually, the flag winning team is good from the get go.

 

[Coaster2012]

I just think the term “hitting your peak early” is an over used term that doesn’t really mean much. West Coast won 10 in a row from Round 2 last year. Ultimately it made very little difference.

I am not disagreeing that the likes of Richmond and West Coast especially will get better, but hitting your peak early is seen as a weird negative at times when in general, the premiership team still starts the season of well. There are some exceptions, but usually, the flag winning team is good from the get go.

No its the actual reality and means alot actually.

Eagles sure, but we had a late season slump that saw everyone write us off. Pies were 5-4 this time last year and threw away the GF. 2017 Tigers were 7th and 5-4. In 2016 Bulldogs were 6-3. In 2015, Hawks were 5-4. So no, it's not the exception, it's the norm. Thus, its actually very likely Geelong will be written off at some point.

 

[Dazzler9]

Then you didn't see the Pies or GWS games.

He said Grand Final REMATCH.

 

[Sttew]

This is exactly my thinking re: Geelong. I simply feel they are playing their peak footy, whereas Richmond, Eagles and Collingwood all have an extra gear that we have seen, both recently and this season. And they are only 1 and 2 games behind them. Maybe Geelong will surprise me and maintain this form all year, maybe the others are showing their current form and will never find that extra gear. But all are well placed.

You may be right, but here's the thing. Selwood has essentially been semi-nursed through the first 8 rounds. That's why he has played 7 or 8 games on the wing rather than in the middle. His game against WB was arguably his best this year. Danger has been hampered by niggling injuries. Tuohy is back from injury and is yet to find form. Henderson and Cockatoo are still injured. And we still have the likes of Bews and Scott Selwood to come back if/when needed.

I think our form has dropped off last couple of games, but IMO these were the sort of games Geelong would have lost in recent years. Instead the team has found an extra gear when needed without over extending.

Upshot. I am confident Cats' can sustain their good form.

 

[JackOutback]

I just think the term “hitting your peak early” is an over used term that doesn’t really mean much. West Coast won 10 in a row from Round 2 last year. Ultimately it made very little difference.

I am not disagreeing that the likes of Richmond and West Coast especially will get better, but hitting your peak early is seen as a weird negative at times when in general, the premiership team still starts the season of well. There are some exceptions, but usually, the flag winning team is good from the get go.

Largely agree; teams need to 'peak' in September but you need to be good all year long to get a top two spot and give yourself the best chance. There are teams that start a little slowly but very few start the year poorly; that's where Richmond and West Coast are at the moment, playing poor by their standards but still winning games and in the mix. I tend to think Geelong may fall away because a lot of improvement is coming from younger players and younger players can tail off as the season progresses. Or maybe I just keep expecting Geelong to have to rebuild at some point and it never happens

 

[upnsmoke]

I don't know how so many of you have the Pies as contenders at the minute on current form. Talk about no where near potential, very unconvincing wins against the blose and saints.................... hardly premiership fancy form.

One quarter and 10 minutes of glimpse form won't win it. IF they can find top gear at the pointy end then fair enough their best is good enough but not the best in the comp.

My question that no one has answered, are Geelong playing at peak? Can they continue this sublime form all the way?

One thing for certain, they'll need to be playing at this level at the business end if they are to win it.

The pies have gotten away with murder the last two weeks.

Fourth quarter lift in intensity and focus... Got them the wins.

Ironically ever since their 2011 heart break the pies have been beaten in the fourth when they were contending.. Usually they start slow then catch up in the second then third then lose in the fourth.... But this season is different..

They win the first... Lose the second and third... Then come steaming in the fourth.

As if they are replicating the 2018 Grand Final every game... As practice lol


Well it builds resilience and its good way to develop highs and troughs....

 

[fpm84]

Or maybe I just keep expecting Geelong to have to rebuild at some point and it never happens

We have rebuilt and you just haven't noticed it.

Players remaining from Geelong's 2011 premiership side - 4 (Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan, Taylor)

Players who played in Geelong's last prelim final appearance (2017) and also on Saturday night - 10.

 

[Milux]

Not convinced the lions are a September threat yet. I suspect our chances of playing finals have increased significantly. Just not sure what that will mean come September.

 

[theyellowsash]

I'm still not convinced we are contenders, we haven't beaten much and were found very far behind the level against the pies and gws. I didn't think we would be making finals a few weeks ago. That looks to be wrong now but unless we meet the right teams in finals I don't think we are going deep.

Pies, eagles, cats, gws in that order for me. Cats 3rd because I'm not convinced they can beat the beat in finals as has been shown the last 4-5 years, but above gws because I'm not convinced gws can play the g.

 

[winty]

No its the actual reality and means alot actually.

Eagles sure, but we had a late season slump that saw everyone write us off. Pies were 5-4 this time last year and threw away the GF. 2017 Tigers were 7th and 5-4. In 2016 Bulldogs were 6-3. In 2015, Hawks were 5-4. So no, it's not the exception, it's the norm. Thus, its actually very likely Geelong will be written off at some point.

Geelong are already being written off judging by posts in this thread.

 

[Coaster2012]

Geelong are already being written off judging by posts in this thread.

Would be stupid to write them off on current form. But to say they will be playing like this all the way to a flag is historically unlikely, as some Geelong posters are implying. They will likely have a drop in form at some point and the timing of that drop could be vital.

 

[JackOutback]

I have Geelong a top four team, they're just not my premiership tip right now.

 

[oak79]

Geelong are already being written off judging by posts in this thread.

Geelong are far and away the best team at the moment - I'm not sure they can sustain it, but I'm certainly not writing them off either.

Finals is almost a certainty now, but will be interesting to see how well they finish out the season

 

[MagicGnome97]

Richmond are winning with one hand tied behind their backs atm and have no where near hit their straps yet. Like WC, we are 6-3 but still have Cotchin, Jack, Nankervis, Short and half a dozen other players to come back in...if they can force there way back that is.

Its all relative imho. Like Geelong & Collingwood atm, we were relatively injury free in 2017 & 2018. If both can stay that way and build their form into the finals. They are the two to beat. GWS will surprize many though.

While we have been relatively injury free this season I'd like to add that in the most recent game at least we had no De Goey (gun - AA team contender), Moore (on fire this season - AA team contender), Adams (such a good midfielder and so accountable he works really hard and is a bit of a leader as well, Pendles seems to perform WAYY better when he is in the team and noticably worse when hes not in the side) and Cox (MUCH better ruckman than Reid but worse forward perhaps, hes a ruck-forward so yeah idk hes pretty important to our team structurally). Also Langdon who is a more than decent defender was injured for a lot of the game.

But before the most recent week or so where suddenly a fair few injuries have all mounted up at once we've had a pretty good run with injuries. Hoskin-Elliott only came back in like round 6 having had no real preseason and Adams has missed about half our games and Sier hasn't played yet this season. Dunn as well and Scharenberg with the ACLs, but yeah, honestly our injuries haven't been too bad this season (I forgot to mention Jamie Elliott got injured recently as well).

Hopefully we should get Moore and De Goey back next game and maybe Sier will play his first game for the year?

Anyway yeah Richmond's injuries have been bloody horrible this season, kinda like ours last season (last season we missed so many players who I would've considered best 22 at the start of the season, our current best 22 nowadays looks quite different). No Rance, Riewoldt and Cotchin out, Nankervis too, and Ross as well now who I heard did pretty well coming into the side. Also a few more.

 

[Chinacats]

5 teams likely to be contending are cats, pies, gws, eagles and tigers. Crows as a Smokey. Question marks over teams out of the 8 right now. Home finals, peaking at right time, injuries and luck will play a part of course. Still too early!

 

[Carringbush2010]

Because you’re in second despite being on second gear. Just like the Eagles are fourth despite playing terrible footy. Both teams are well placed if they find the form we know they have.

As for Geelong, May premiers rarely end up September premiers, IMO.

The question on Geelong is not easily answered, you could argue they're not at peak and you could argue they are. If they are can they continue all the way? I'd say that's unlikely.

On the flip side, no one else is really setting the world on fire as you've mentioned. Right now on current form there's only one contender even though right now doesn't win the flag as you've also pointed out.

Only time will tell. If it was potential v potential then in my view it'd be wc or giants that have it, the other teams like rich, coll have great systems that are not as personnel reliant.

 

[Tom14]

Not convinced the lions are a September threat yet. I suspect our chances of playing finals have increased significantly. Just not sure what that will mean come September.

Think our ceiling might be finishing 6th and hosting a home final - that would be best case scenario imo. More likely I expect us to finish 7-8 and lose an away elimination final in the first week.

Two top tiers are (1) Geelong, Pies; (2) GWS, WCE, Richmond. Then I think there about 6 teams in the next bracket down.

 

[Sttew]

Because you’re in second despite being on second gear. Just like the Eagles are fourth despite playing terrible footy. Both teams are well placed if they find the form we know they have.

As for Geelong, May premiers rarely end up September premiers, IMO.

Hah! This time last year WCE was 8 - 1

 

[Carringbush2010]

I can’t see any reason to suggest we have peaked. We have been pretty poor the past fortnight and are clearly carrying some sore players at the moment. Much to improve on.

I think Geelong and Collingwood still have gears to go to hence 40+ wins for both teams yesterday after being challenged for three quarters.

Because no one predicted this sort of form before the season started from Geelong. You reckon you've been poor in the last fortnight yet claim you're not at peak - yeah nah you haven't been poor all season and you wouldn't find many if any that agree with you on that. It's clear teams like Coll & WC still have gears but they're only showing glimpses of true form but it's not clear with Geelong - one could argue they're at potential at the minute.

 

[fpm84]

Because no one predicted this sort of form before the season started from Geelong. You reckon you've been poor in the last fortnight yet claim you're not at peak - yeah nah you haven't been poor all season and you wouldn't find many if any that agree with you on that. It's clear teams like Coll & WC still have gears but they're only showing glimpses of true form but it's not clear with Geelong - one could argue they're at potential at the minute.

So Collingwood being challenged by St Kilda for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win means the team has gears, but Geelong being challenged by the Bulldogs for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win doesn’t mean we have gears?

Got it.

 

[Sttew]

So Collingwood being challenged by St Kilda for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win means the team has gears, but Geelong being challenged by the Bulldogs for three quarters and pulling away for a 7 goal win doesn’t mean we have gears?

Got it.

Sounds to me like wishful thinking

 

[fpm84]

Anyway, anybody who had written us off for 2019 subscribes to the level of football analysis in this country which is a variant of 'they've been good for a while so surely they're due to drop down the ladder.'

Anybody who actually watched us play in 2018 would have seen that a lack of forward pressure was our significant shortcoming. Tom Hawkins had an AA quality season but had very little support and we were often having to shoehorn midfielders like Menegola and Parfitt into forward roles they weren't suited to.

Despite this we finished two games out of the top 4 with the second best percentage in the comp. We lost a combined 4 games to Richmond and Hawthorn by margins of 1, 3, 8, 11. All of those games were in the balance until the final minute and we were inches away from winning at least a couple.

We led WCE in Perth by three goals midway through the last quarter until we were down to one on the bench and we got overrun.

I don't think we were a great team last year but we weren't too far off it - appalling performance in the EF notwithstanding.

It was pretty clear to Geelong fans that our defense was excellent, our midfield very good with RFI and our forward line was costing us games. Targeted recruitments of Dahlhaus and Rohan to improve forward pressure, finally playing a fit specialist small forward in Miers after years of McCarthy/Gregson/Cockatoo being injured and Ablett being moved forward to take advantage of his exquisite ball use and finishing skills have paid off so far.

There's a long way to go, but anyone surprised that we've improved in 2019 isn't paying enough attention....