Certified Legendary Thread Corona, Jamaica ooh I wanna take ya (COVID-19 Information & Discussion Here) Part 2 "The Second Wave"

[Vader]

This is a strange statistic that in the US only 2/3 of excess deaths are attributable to Covid. I don’t even know why they count the 216K fully as excess deaths, because a large number of the 216K were elderly and/or ill as well and would likely die of other causes within this time period. But it seems that lots of younger people have died from not getting medical treatment and suicides etc unrelated to Covid.
I think the true analysis of how many normally die each year v how many died of Covid v how many died from other causes neglected due to overemphasis on Covid, hasn’t been calculated yet. I’ll be interested to see this stat in the wash up when it’s all back to normal as I believe it will in time.

The Pandemic’s Real Toll? 300,000 Deaths, and It’s Not Just From the Coronavirus (Published 2020)

A C.D.C. analysis finds that overall death rates have risen, particularly among young adults and people of color.

www.google.com.au

Do you even understand what is meant by the term "excess deaths"? It is the number of people who have died, over and above the historic long term average.

The fact that the COVID19 deaths only account for 2/3 of the excess deaths indicates that the true COVID19 death toll is probably much higher than the reported figure.

As you rightly point out, many of the COVID19 victims have been elderly, and may have died of natural causes anyway. These would not show up as excess deaths, which makes the disparity between the two figures even greater.

Put it this way... The USA has had approximately 230,000 deaths because of COVID19. Their excess deaths would be around 345,000. If we assume that 20,000 COVID19 deaths were elderly, and who would have died of natural causes during the same reporting period, then the disparity between the number of excess deaths and the reported COVID19 death toll rises from 115,000 to 135,000.

The question is why did those 135,000 people die? Were they unreported COVID19 cases? Were they people who didn't receive treatment for other diseases, as a second or third order effect (**) of COVID19? Or, were they simply due to the natural variance in the number of deaths occurring each year? I suspect that the true answer may be all three reasons.

** Second order effects would include people who were unable to receive treatment due to COVID19 related capacity issues. Third order effects include people who were so scared of catching COVID19 if they went to hospital, that they didn't seek treatment for their (non COVID19) health problems, and subsequently died as a result.

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[Vader]

Excess deaths vs COVID19 deaths can actually throw up some interesting results.

For a long time, COVID19 was actually resulting in a lower than usual number of deaths in South Africa. This was because the number of people being murdered fell dramatically while they were in lock down, more than compensating for the number of people dying prematurely as a result of COVID19. I'm not sure if this is still the case there.

I suspect that Australia will have a negative number of excess deaths this year, with fewer people dying from traffic accidents (fewer cars on the roads during lock down), and fewer deaths due to other communicable diseases.

Countries with a large positive disparity between excess deaths and COVID19 deaths are probably significantly under reporting on the number of COVID19 deaths.

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[1970crow]

“Phase 3 trials in the US remain on hold while the regulator there conducts its own assessment. A senior official was quoted by Bloomberg on Wednesday as saying he expected US trials to restart later in the week.”

Firstly, even if true, that's not proof that a trial "MUST JFC" stop because a CONTROL patient has died. The trial has not been halted anywhere due to this. And, the US component of the trial was still on halt due to the spinal inflammation case from early September. You really don't research too well or just arrive at flatly wrong conclusions.

AstraZeneca tipped to restart COVID-19 vaccine trial this week: report

AstraZeneca could resume the U.S. | AstraZeneca could resume the U.S. clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine this week, according to a Reuters report. The trial has been paused since early September while the FDA reviews the safety of the vaccine in light of a reported case of a rare spinal...

www.fiercebiotech.com

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

You sure it's stopped for the death?

Yes, was stopped temporarily... but appears to have recommenced.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Excess deaths vs COVID19 deaths can actually throw up some interesting results.

For a long time, COVID19 was actually resulting in a lower than usual number of deaths in South Africa. This was because the number of people being murdered fell dramatically while they were in lock down, more than compensating for the number of people dying prematurely as a result of COVID19. I'm not sure if this is still the case there.

I suspect that Australia will have a negative number of excess deaths this year, with fewer people dying from traffic accidents (fewer cars on the roads during lock down), and fewer deaths due to other communicable diseases.

Countries with a large positive disparity between excess deaths and COVID19 deaths are probably significantly under reporting on the number of COVID19 deaths.

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I would say the number of deaths from pneumonia would have significantly reduced with social distancing measures.... & COVID has been the substitute for those people with a pre-existing condition that die from complications.

 

[Scorpus]

Promise to roll back restrictions when case average falls below 5

Average falls below 5. Restrictions not eased.

Classic

 

[fortunatecrow]

What's the saying? To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Change testing protocols? Communicate more effectively with ESL communities (rather than blame them and engage in racist dog-whistling!) ? Localise restrictions? Run your hot hotel differently to the way it was run last time?

No. Ongoing stage 4 restrictions for 5 million people because there were seven cases. But apparently things might be wonderfully magically different in 48 hours time. Utter fkwit gives incompentent clowns a bad name.

'There can be no changes to restrictions in Melbourne today'
By Hanna Mills Turbet
Premier Daniel Andrews will not be making any change to restrictions today but hopes to make some announcements on Tuesday.

 

[Scorpus]

Why do people ever believe what people in government say?

 

[fortunatecrow]

Sheer incompetent wildly out of his depth ignoring science and just making sh!t up. If his surname was Trump he'd be widely condemned but in Victoria the danstanders will leap to his defence

 

[1990crow]

Very deflated

 

[1970crow]

Yes, was stopped temporarily... but appears to have recommenced.

"Oxford University stressed that there were no concerns about the safety of its vaccine candidate, and that it plans to keep the trial going without interruption". So that was 2 days ago, do you have a source for your update?

Volunteer ‘from control group’ dies in Brazil trial of Oxford coronavirus vaccine

Trial will not be suspended after incident, Oxford University and AstraZeneca say

www.independent.co.uk

 

[1990crow]

"Oxford University stressed that there were no concerns about the safety of its vaccine candidate, and that it plans to keep the trial going without interruption". So that was 2 days ago, do you have a source for your update?

Volunteer ‘from control group’ dies in Brazil trial of Oxford coronavirus vaccine

Trial will not be suspended after incident, Oxford University and AstraZeneca say

www.independent.co.uk

The stop was over a month ago

 

[1970crow]

Promise to roll back restrictions when case average falls below 5

Average falls below 5. Restrictions not eased.

Classic

There's no doubt that leaders see votes in being strong by imposing 'protections'. Look at WA, still closed off. Look at us, why can't we dance and drink at a wedding. The next election in every state will be about covid protection. "Who made the hard decisions to protect you all from covid". Not sure recent ACT election as I took no notice except for result, but incumbent in NT election ran on nothing else.

 

[1970crow]

The stop was over a month ago

Different issue. That was a chick getting sick somewhere and it did cause a halt as she had received the trial vaccine. A few days ago a bloke in Brazil died, but he was in the control group. They are entirely different events with different results. Jenny has no idea, Kane is wrong and you haven't bothered to research.

 

[Mutineer]

Missed a few Joe...

 

[Vader]

There's no doubt that leaders see votes in being strong by imposing 'protections'. Look at WA, still closed off. Look at us, why can't we dance and drink at a wedding. The next election in every state will be about covid protection. "Who made the hard decisions to protect you all from covid". Not sure recent ACT election as I took no notice except for result, but incumbent in NT election ran on nothing else.

COVID was barely mentioned in the ACT election campaign, mind you I mostly ignored the whole thing. The ACT Libs were mostly campaigning on bringing rates down, while increasing spending - nobody was stupid enough to fall for the false economy, and they suffered a 3% swing against them as a result.

 

[1990crow]

Missed a few Joe...

Stepping down would be a start

 

[1970crow]

Missed a few Joe...

That chick is miles out. 2 people have taken responsibility for the quarantine issue. Dan hasn't. Saying it means nothing. I saw a bit of the debate on the news where Trump took responsibility for covid deaths but then blamed China in the next breath. Anyone can say they take full responsibility, it's the consequences of the responsibility that counts. A bit like taking reservations, anyone can take the reservation.

 

[fortunatecrow]

There's no doubt that leaders see votes in being strong by imposing 'protections'. Look at WA, still closed off. Look at us, why can't we dance and drink at a wedding. The next election in every state will be about covid protection. "Who made the hard decisions to protect you all from covid". Not sure recent ACT election as I took no notice except for result, but incumbent in NT election ran on nothing else.

If the "Queensland hospitals are for Queenslanders" government loses the election then it might wake the others up, but looks like they start favourites

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

"Oxford University stressed that there were no concerns about the safety of its vaccine candidate, and that it plans to keep the trial going without interruption". So that was 2 days ago, do you have a source for your update?

Volunteer ‘from control group’ dies in Brazil trial of Oxford coronavirus vaccine

Trial will not be suspended after incident, Oxford University and AstraZeneca say

www.independent.co.uk

I was talking about a month or so ago.

It was stopped due to concerns.

Trials rarely proceed without some delay.

 

[1990crow]

Different issue. That was a chick getting sick somewhere and it did cause a halt as she had received the trial vaccine. A few days ago a bloke in Brazil died, but he was in the control group. They are entirely different events with different results. Jenny has no idea, Kane is wrong and you haven't bothered to research.

Take a chill pill 1970

 

[RunBurgundy]

Missed a few Joe...

I’m really looking forward to going to the polls to vote this incompetent muppet out. I pray the people Living in Victoria can see how badly he screwed this and follow suit. We are in this mess due to his blundering of hotel quarantine from the outset now he doesn’t know how to effectively RE-open the state’s economy. I have never rated NSW as somewhere I’d prefer to live but right now I’d even rather be there than this State. Goes to show how Good leadership effects everything.

 

[fortunatecrow]

I’m really looking forward to going to the polls to vote this incompetent muppet out. I pray the people Living in Victoria can see how badly he screwed this and follow suit. We are in this mess due to his blundering of hotel quarantine from the outset now he doesn’t know how to effectively RE-open the state’s economy. I have never rated NSW as somewhere I’d prefer to live but right now I’d even rather be there than this State. Goes to show how Good leadership effects everything.

Sadly we are still two years away. Denial will have slunk off by them when the real damage he has caused starts to become obvious and he realises that he has no hope of re-election.

 

[jenny61_99]

Yes, was stopped temporarily... but appears to have recommenced.

will shortly resume in the US, but the UK one has already.

 

[jenny61_99]

Different issue. That was a chick getting sick somewhere and it did cause a halt as she had received the trial vaccine. A few days ago a bloke in Brazil died, but he was in the control group. They are entirely different events with different results. Jenny has no idea, Kane is wrong and you haven't bothered to research.

There’s been two halts. And do you know what a control group is? Do you understand double blind testing?