Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

[PatrickBateman]

No, because into your equation you have included active cases that have not yet had a result.
If you want to include these figures one could correctly conclude that those who contracted the virus only have a 76% of recovery.
So yes, he was, as are you, wrong.

Even so, the amount of people either asymptomatic or sick / not recorded (most say a considerable %) far outweigh the numbers currently active and likely to die (1.7%). You can easily predict how many of these people are likely to die / recover from the existing data - save the gorilla math.

It's 1% at best.

 

[Partridge]

Who's died with covid that wasn't either in poor health or had a compromised immune system.

Good question.

But yeah, they’ve done an excellent job of convincing people it’s bubonic plague and smallpox rolled into one.

And there’s no correlation at all between favouring a lockdown and still keeping your job. None at all.

 

[Kwality]

you really think hospitals are getting full?

People are dying to get out of there -

 

[Kwality]

Good question.

But yeah, they’ve done an excellent job of convincing people it’s bubonic plague and smallpox rolled into one.

And there’s no correlation at all between favouring a lockdown and still keeping your job. None at all.

Tell this bloke & cringe:

Doctor with COVID-19 reveals 'panic and fear' when the tables are turned

A young Melbourne doctor says he feels lucky to be alive after spending days on a ventilator in intensive care with COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

Reality is he helps ...

 

[mcnulty]

into staying home forever

Except that no one is arguing that. Anywhere. Ever. And you surely know that.

Can’t you at least argue in good faith?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

even in the U.S the deaths are like 0.003 % of there population. The country with "the worst outbreak" has such a small amount of there population that has died with covid and in any case alot of deaths that could be heart attack or something else has being labelled as covid because they had covid at some point before dying, those facts are incorrect and not labelled properly. The flu is way down this year because everything is labelled as covid, its all BS

Its not 0.003% of the people who have caught it.
Everything is NOT labelled as covid.
You are all BS.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Tell this bloke & cringe:

Doctor with COVID-19 reveals 'panic and fear' when the tables are turned

A young Melbourne doctor says he feels lucky to be alive after spending days on a ventilator in intensive care with COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

Reality is he helps ...

Yes, all of these such cases are likely to be focused on by the media. Never nice to see it, but in reality this happens every year.

The reality? If we knew exactly how many people die OF covid as opposed to die WITH the virus, the rate of death would drop even further.

I've talked to work colleagues who assumed that if you're elderly and get the virus, you've pretty much got one foot into a pine box. Reality? The overwhelming majority of elderly recover from it. If you only listened to mainstream media, you'd share the opinion of my work colleagues. Telling.

Reality? We lose 30 or so to influenza most years under the age of 44. Children make up 5-6% of ICU instances too, yes children, some die too. It's never reported.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Not sure how you can compare a social structure from almost 100 years ago to now.

True , people were smarter and more civilized then.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yes, all of these such cases are likely to be focused on by the media. Never nice to see it, but in reality this happens every year.

The reality? If we knew exactly how many people die OF covid as opposed to die WITH the virus, the rate of death would drop even further.

I've talked to work colleagues who assumed that if you're elderly and get the virus, you've pretty much got one foot into a pine box. Reality? The overwhelming majority of elderly recover from it. If you only listened to mainstream media, you'd share the opinion of my work colleagues. Telling.

Reality? We lose 30 or so to influenza most years under the age of 44. Children make up 5-6% of ICU instances too, yes children, some die too. It's never reported.

When it was out of control in Italy, ie , hospital facilities were swamped, some of the elderly homes had close to half their tenants die.

 

[HTT]

and apparently anyone reporting these stats is crazy, i think id rather take my chances and live a normal life than be fear shamed into staying home forever because theres a 0.44% chance ill test positive to corona

I’d rather stay home for a few weeks first than see my country descend into chaos with mass burials because our hospitals can’t keep up.

 

[PAFC66]

People who say hospitals are empty are absolute uneducated dumb arses. Non essential surgery makes up almost half of the admissions in public hospitals, they've been ceased for good reason and lockdowns are having a effect on ED streaming.. Nobody is out getting hammered, driving, doing drugs, trauma accidents are down. People are being discharged quicker, lesser cases being managed in the community and staff are being redepolyed.. Have a think..

 

[PAFC66]

Again dumb arses forming some kind of narrative that positive rates are down and we should be open.... Come on, it's because restrictions are working. Why do people judge the numbers whilst we are in lockdown? You're literally conceding to yourself that restrictions are working.. Of course they're not sustainable forever but we can't let outbreaks just go..

 

[Number37]

Refer to 'Chance of NOT dying of Covid 19'..

Was he wrong? Death rate as a % of positive tests is 1.79%, when you factor all the people who have the virus but are either asymptomatic or don't register a positive test, it WOULD be 1%!

Care to correct your statement above?

View attachment 942289

The circumstances under which those stats are derived include lockdowns + other social distancing measures.
Your 99.9999% chance of NOT dying only applies to those circumstances.

When Vic didn't have stage 3 or 4 lockdowns cases were in the hundreds per day.
Stage 3 & 4 restrictions has brought those numbers down to under 200, with all likelihood that they will come down to single or double digits within weeks.

You can't die of CoVid if you don't get it. ie your chances of NOT dying of Covid if you don't get Covid is 100%.
Stopping people from getting CoVid in the first place sounds like damn good public health policy.

 

[HTT]

Again dumb arses forming some kind of narrative that positive rates are down and we should be open.... Come on, it's because restrictions are working. Why do people judge the numbers whilst we are in lockdown? You're literally conceding to yourself that restrictions are working.. Of course they're not sustainable forever but we can't let outbreaks just go..

 

[PatrickBateman]

You can't die of CoVid if you don't get it. ie your chances of NOT dying of Covid if you don't get Covid is 100%.
Stopping people from getting CoVid in the first place sounds like damn good public health policy.

I'm questioning the severity of the virus alongside the measures we're made to experience. The rate of death as a % of those who get it.

Yes, these Corona statistics are under lock down. Influenza statistics are taken while we have a vaccine, yet we can see over 1000 Australians die from that in a year. I believe 1200 in 2017. Why not use your same philosophy every year for influenza? 1200 to die of influenza is a big hit in one year, considering we had a vaccine, no? We're yet to hit 500 dead of Covid in 2020. How many could die of Covid WITH a vaccine without media hysteria? Would 1200 be OK?

The telling statistics in years to come will be TOTAL DEATH. This will give people an idea of how severe government policy today will impact society economically and socially - it will. The impact to quality of life will be felt for years.

 

[The 747]

I'm questioning the severity of the virus alongside the measures we're made to experience. The rate of death as a % of those who get it.

Yes, these Corona statistics are under lock down. Influenza statistics are taken while we have a vaccine, yet we can see over 1000 Australians die from that in a year. I believe 1200 in 2017. Why not use your same philosophy every year for influenza? 1200 to die of influenza is a big hit in one year, considering we had a vaccine, no? We're yet to hit 500 dead of Covid in 2020. How many could die of Covid WITH a vaccine without media hysteria? Would 1200 be OK?

The telling statistics in years to come will be TOTAL DEATH. This will give people an idea of how severe government policy today will impact society economically and socially - it will. The impact to quality of life will be felt for years.

The death rate is influenced by the government measures. You don't have anything to compare it to, except that essentially every government in the world - of all political persuasions - has come to the conclusion that containment measures are required.

Secondly, the impact to quality of life is unknown as again you have nothing to compare it to, there is AFAIK no alternate 2020 running that we analyse.

 

[JackOutback]

I'm questioning the severity of the virus alongside the measures we're made to experience. The rate of death as a % of those who get it.

Yes, these Corona statistics are under lock down. Influenza statistics are taken while we have a vaccine, yet we can see over 1000 Australians die from that in a year. I believe 1200 in 2017. Why not use your same philosophy every year for influenza? 1200 to die of influenza is a big hit in one year, considering we had a vaccine, no? We're yet to hit 500 dead of Covid in 2020. How many could die of Covid WITH a vaccine without media hysteria? Would 1200 be OK?

The telling statistics in years to come will be TOTAL DEATH. This will give people an idea of how severe government policy today will impact society economically and socially - it will. The impact to quality of life will be felt for years.

This is simply the arrogance of success talking. Yes, we have less than 500 COVID deaths but a couple of hundred of them have come in the past few weeks with an outbreak in just one city. Multiply that by eight state and territories, minus the benefits of lockdown, and it should be obvious to the simplest mind that it would far outweigh the flu.

Then, if hospitals get overwhelmed, people start dying of other things because they can’t get access to treatment.

If only there were other places that could act as a warning by having been through this.

 

[Professor Knowall]

Well at least the virus has done some good -

Masked Singer shut down over COVID-19

The entire cast of hit reality show The Masked Singer Australia has been shut down with stars having to self isolate after an outbreak of coronavirus on set.

www.news.com.au

... Though seriously, I do wish all the dancers all the best with their recovery -

 

[danstar]

Well at least the virus has done some good -

Masked Singer shut down over COVID-19

The entire cast of hit reality show The Masked Singer Australia has been shut down with stars having to self isolate after an outbreak of coronavirus on set.

www.news.com.au

... Though seriously, I do wish all the dancers all the best with their recovery -

what a severe over reaction

 

[Chief]

what a severe over reaction

I know! All this over a highly infectious novel virus that attacks the central nervous system.

Crazy!

 

[Kwality]

Yes, all of these such cases are likely to be focused on by the media. Never nice to see it, but in reality this happens every year.

The reality? If we knew exactly how many people die OF covid as opposed to die WITH the virus, the rate of death would drop even further.

I've talked to work colleagues who assumed that if you're elderly and get the virus, you've pretty much got one foot into a pine box. Reality? The overwhelming majority of elderly recover from it. If you only listened to mainstream media, you'd share the opinion of my work colleagues. Telling.

Reality? We lose 30 or so to influenza most years under the age of 44. Children make up 5-6% of ICU instances too, yes children, some die too. It's never reported.

Rubbish, all these generalisations to try and make a political point. EDs are being closed by infection .... ADF guys in ambulances to keep them on the road for & traffic accidents, heart attacks & all of that vanilla stuff a stretched front line work force do in a normal day. Wake up to yourself, the ambulances wouldnt be out there, but its the 'same old' according to the 'would be' mathematicians suffering from a yawn bending case of paralysis from analysis.

As for what people die off, analysis after the fact, just more analysis !

 

[PatrickBateman]

Rubbish, all these generalisations to try and make a political point.

No, I prefer economics actually.

What political point am I making exactly?

 

[Pessimistic]

The 'masked singer' is closed down so its not all bad

 

[Pessimistic]

View attachment 942388

Keynsian Economics. no one thanks you for the crisis you didn't have

 

[Kwality]

No, I prefer economics actually.

What political point am I making exactly?

I tool your posts to be critical of the lockdowns & claiming they were unnecessary. My take of that is political but if it concerns you I'm happy to go the substance of your quibbling.