Game Day Crows vs Pies in Adelaide, R7 2023

[John Who]

Its mathematically possible, but I think we'd need to win by 150+ points to go top.

I was kinda joking but thanks for doing the Maths! Would be nice if we can score 150 points though. Looks to be good footy weather and low winds in the afternoon.

 

[1970crow]

Wow, just checked the ladder and this game has a little more riding on it then I thought.

Crows win and they end the round equal best record in the AFL and likely top 4 (depending on Essendon). However they lose and they very likely end the round back out of the 8 (depending on Geelong).

Pies win they sit atop the ladder after 7 rounds. They lose and they drop as far down as 6th.

ladder is meaningless 6 games in. People have been obsessing over the ladder 5 rounds in for the last 2 years as well. It might be second v sixth now, but by the end of the year it's more likely to have been 3rd v 10th. The onky time the ladder matters is after the minor round has concluded.

 

[1970crow]

Collingwood don't look very strong on paper.
Billy in the ruck, most of their talls look average.
Coming off the anzac game and 5 day break.
Crows will be too good, I think we can kick a bigger score than the Pies today

unfortunately we don't have a ruckman that can maximise the output of the 50 odd taps that will be won against Billy. No Pendles and Sidebottom missing or flu affected gives our mids a leg up though. Exoect young Nick to play in there today. Pies would be mad to play Steele if he's had/got any flu this week.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

ladder is meaningless 6 games in. People have been obsessing over the ladder 5 rounds in for the last 2 years as well. It might be second v sixth now, but by the end of the year it's more likely to have been 3rd v 10th. The onky time the ladder matters is after the minor round has concluded.

I get what you mean but it certainly isn't meaningless. By round 10 the ladder will have had time to settle. We may well be out of the 8 with a run of Collingwood, Geelong, Saints, Brisbane and bulldogs. But then we still have a few easy games after that to climb back up.

 

[Pistol Night]

Your girlfriend is Collingwood?

Marry her.

 

[Betts are off]

ladder is meaningless 6 games in. People have been obsessing over the ladder 5 rounds in for the last 2 years as well. It might be second v sixth now, but by the end of the year it's more likely to have been 3rd v 10th. The onky time the ladder matters is after the minor round has concluded.

Of course it is, but I'd still prefer to be top 4 then 9th.

I'm sure the Pies would prefer to be 1st then 6th

 

[Username Unknown]

Do you guys think Keays has the skill set/fitness/experience to tag Daicos out of the game?

 

[pjcrows]

Do you guys think Keays has the skill set/fitness/experience to tag Daicos out of the game?

Fitness yes. Footballing? I doubt for a whole game.

If we break even or win the midfield we're a show. If the Pies get hold of us there we can't win.

 

[Brett Cummings]

ladder is meaningless 6 games in. People have been obsessing over the ladder 5 rounds in for the last 2 years as well. It might be second v sixth now, but by the end of the year it's more likely to have been 3rd v 10th. The onky time the ladder matters is after the minor round has concluded.

Damn, Collingwood 10th. Must win game then.

 

[1990crow]

Marry her.

Gonna be a dry spell for this week!

 

[GROTTO]

I get what you mean but it certainly isn't meaningless. By round 10 the ladder will have had time to settle. We may well be out of the 8 with a run of Collingwood, Geelong, Saints, Brisbane and bulldogs. But then we still have a few easy games after that to climb back up.

Youre 100% correct.

Its actually more meaningful after the end of this round.

Its the Round 7 rule, alternately known as the maxim of "if you're not in the top eight by now, chances are you won't be when it counts, either"

Which leads me into

Grotto's Fun Facts

The evidence is as follows: Since 2001, there has been 22 completed AFL seasons. In 20 of them, the top eight has changed by a maximum of just two teams from the end of Round 7 until the end of the final home and away round.

There was a period between 2002 and 2010, nine seasons when only once did more than one team that hadn't been nestled inside the top eight come the end of Round 7 end up playing finals.

Nine times there's been just one team make it from outside to a finals campaign, eight times overall it's been only two teams, and on a couple of occasions, none at all. Across 21 seasons, the average number of changes has been around one-and-a-half. That average includes 2019, when there was, by comparison, an absolute flood of change, with four teams inside the top eight after seven rounds dropping out.





CrowinNT I know you love these hence Im tagging you in, lol.

 

[GROTTO]

Damn, Collingwood 10th. Must win game then.

Lets hope we win it, chances are if we are not in the 8 by the end of this round, the probability is against us making the 8.

 

[GROTTO]

Do you guys think Keays has the skill set/fitness/experience to tag Daicos out of the game?

Engine yes, most definitely.

 

[CrowBloke]

Schoenberg - A lot of folks reckon Ol' Fumbles can still improve and have a decent AFL career and should be given a chance. He was the best of a bad lot in the SANFL

Will be slippery, maybe even showers which will not help him get and use clean ball (if he plays).
We know what Schoenberg has to offer, and right now it's disappointment.

If Cook is selected and plays a break-even game, that's a big win for the Crows, long-term.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Its mathematically possible, but I think we'd need to win by 150+ points to go top.

So getting off to a good start is crucial.

 

[CrowBloke]

Crows by 52 points.

Wow.
LOVE your optimism!

 

[CrowBloke]

Probability wise, prior events have no impact on the likelihood of the current event.

Exactly. The last 6 lossses to Collingwood have no bearing on this game, except maybe mentally on players who played in them.
If anything, those 6 losses should add fuel to the fire, not diminish it.
Long losing sequences are often broken.

 

[UcantCme]

Collingwood should be ripe for the picking, they are far from their best 22 with Pendles, Cameron, Cox, Howe, McStay and Lipinski all out….. most of these players are really important to their structure

Not to mention they are travelling on the back if. 5 day break

We need to take advantage of these factors

Crows by 20pts


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pistol Night]

Exactly. The last 6 lossses to Collingwood have no bearing on this game, except maybe mentally on players who played in them.
If anything, those 6 losses should add fuel to the fire, not diminish it.
Long losing sequences are often broken.

The longer they are, the closer they are to being broken.

Also, man who have tool in hand, not necessarily a mechanic

 

[1970crow]

I get what you mean but it certainly isn't meaningless. By round 10 the ladder will have had time to settle. We may well be out of the 8 with a run of Collingwood, Geelong, Saints, Brisbane and bulldogs. But then we still have a few easy games after that to climb back up.

it's meaningless, the only thing that matters is how many games you've won come the end of the minor round. It's a fair comment that as the season progresses, the ladder becomes more reflective of how it will look come the end of the minor round. But giving a fig at round 7 is rank stupidity. Especially when they're looking at possible outcomes based upon other games and other ladder positions. It's daft.

 

[CrowBloke]

I think we can kick a bigger score than the Pies today

Even if the game is slip-sliding ugly, uglier than last week's game, that win is all I want.

 

[1970crow]

Of course it is, but I'd still prefer to be top 4 then 9th.

I'm sure the Pies would prefer to be 1st then 6th

no, they don't care. They care about wins and losses, the ladder is irrelevant until much later in the year. Cats don't care they're not top, they care that the lost their first 3 games.

 

[CrowBloke]

Also, man who have tool in hand, not necessarily a mechanic

Also, poster who make spurious, irrelevant aphorism not necessarily wise (or funny).

 

[1970crow]

Do you guys think Keays has the skill set/fitness/experience to tag Daicos out of the game?

not at all. He apparently tagged Saad ladt year and he had his 3rd most possessions and most kicks for that season. He'll ball hunt, but if you're punting and Murphy goes to him, there could be a minimising impact. But not if it's Keays.

 

[CrowBloke]

I was kinda joking but thanks for doing the Maths! Would be nice if we can score 150 points though. Looks to be good footy weather and low winds in the afternoon.

John, mate, look outside.
Might not be raining but will be slippery as an ice rink.