Opinion Did Taranto and Hopper make a mistake leaving the Giants for Richmond?

[sydney_gws]

I wonder if the recent Taranto/Hopper experience will prevent others from moving to the big Melbourne clubs. If you're not winning regularly then being at a big Melbourne club probably isn't a very nice place to be.

I think delay till free agency. You have to look at the list, only count the players 2 years older than you and younger. Also if the champion players ( coleman, brownlow, norm Smith winners) winners are all 6 years or more older than you, try to factor in how much better the players left are being made to look by those champions.

 

[Grrr]

Richmond could rebound a bit quicker than the time-line being suggested or 5 or 6 years. It often takes young kids a while to build their bodies, but Lalor and Smillie and are already big bodies. If North's young mids are already guns after 2 years why not these two. Many of our younger players were basically playing their first years at AFL level and now have a solid season under their belts.

We recruited a lot of top ten talent at later picks. Hotton, Trainor and Armstrong were all tipped to go at one time last year into the top 5-10 but slipped, Hotton with injury, Trainor with supposed concussion concern.

We will also most likely have the no.1 pick next year and somewhere between 2-6 courtesy of North. Top 5 picks can come on very quickly and are usually class.

 

[Purple Suit]

Richmond could rebound a bit quicker than the time-line being suggested or 5 or 6 years. It often takes young kids a while to build their bodies, but Lalor and Smillie and are already big bodies. If North's young mids are already guns after 2 years why not these two. Many of our younger players were basically playing their first years at AFL level and now have a solid season under their belts.

We recruited a lot of top ten talent at later picks. Hotton, Trainor and Armstrong were all tipped to go at one time last year into the top 5-10 but slipped, Hotton with injury, Trainor with supposed concussion concern.

We will also most likely have the no.1 pick next year and somewhere between 2-6 courtesy of North. Top 5 picks can come on very quickly and are usually class.

You’re dreaming, have a look at North & West Coast for examples of how long it takes kids to be competitive against men. North have had some absolute gun pickups recently too.

5 years minimum for the Tigers, next year will be worse than 24.

 

[Grrr]

You’re dreaming, have a look at North & West Coast for examples of how long it takes kids to be competitive against men. North have had some absolute gun pickups recently too.

5 years minimum for the Tigers, next year will be worse than 24.

Really, Norths top 10 picks of the last few years have been impressive from the get go.

Harry Sheezel is a gun, in his first 2 seasons he averages 28 possessions per game.
Wardlaw looked like a gun about to really go
Colby McKercher in his first season was a gun and averaged 23 disposals.
Jason Horne Francis, gun.

And they are not alone, plenty of 10 ten picks are guns by their second and third years.

North have taken so long because their kids had so little support. They did not have established players like Taranto and Hopper, much less Prestia, Lynch, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Broad, Balta and a few others Premiership players.

Add Gibcus to the list of top 10 draftees coming back, he is due some luck and played 18 games in his first year.

If injuries don't scuttle us, we might snag some wins.

North have 4 top 25 draft picks playing for them righ now. Richmond will have 10 top 25 draft picks, this year and next, 4 of them top 6 or so, there is room for a quicker than normal turnaround.

 

[Footy Smarts]

North have 4 top 25 draft picks playing for them righ now. Richmond will have 10 top 25 draft picks, this year and next, 4 of them top 6 or so, there is room for a quicker than normal turnaround.

Where have you pulled this from? It's miles off.

North have 5 top 25 draft picks from the 2023 draft alone. Mckercher, Duursma, Goad, Dawson and Hardeman.

Just since the 2020 draft they have 11 top 25 picks on their list. Those 5 plus Phillips, Powell, Goater, Sheezel, Wardlaw and O'Sullivan.

 

[KissKiss]

Generally it takes 50 games for the kids to become consistent players. You get the shines of brightness before that but they all have quieter games or moments when they get worked over by a smarter older body.

Even if everyone one of Richmond's new kids play every game with no injuries it's at least 3 years before they step into that level. 5 is a more realistic scenario for them to really take off

 

[GC2015]

I think delay till free agency. You have to look at the list, only count the players 2 years older than you and younger. Also if the champion players ( coleman, brownlow, norm Smith winners) winners are all 6 years or more older than you, try to factor in how much better the players left are being made to look by those champions.

Seems like it's heading that way. First round draftees are now given three year contracts and most player agents tend to extend with their original club. So the contract extension on the original three year deal would typically take a player to year five or six in their career. By that point your only a few years shy of free agency and I reckon you'd find most player agents would once again advise the player to extend until their eighth year so they can open the free agency door and really maximise their options. That seems to be the pathway that most players are following these days. Very similar to the NBA where you rarely see a player leaving their original club before they reach the six years required to unlock free agency options.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

You’re dreaming, have a look at North & West Coast for examples of how long it takes kids to be competitive against men. North have had some absolute gun pickups recently too.

5 years minimum for the Tigers, next year will be worse than 24.

I think you're probably right. We've just got to embrace the slow rebuild and take our onfield medicine for the next few years.

Much easier ingested as a Tiger supporter with the three recent spoonfuls of sugar, mind you.

 

[Call Me Cake]

recent spoonfuls of sugar, mind you.

Recent? It was half a decade ago. By the time you're competitive again it'll be 10 years.

 

[Grrr]

Where have you pulled this from? It's miles off.

North have 5 top 25 draft picks from the 2023 draft alone. Mckercher, Duursma, Goad, Dawson and Hardeman.

Just since the 2020 draft they have 11 top 25 picks on their list. Those 5 plus Phillips, Powell, Goater, Sheezel, Wardlaw and O'Sullivan.

You are right, didn't do the homework. Didn't realise their 2023 crop had 3 picks 20, 22, 23.

The point is that North are tipped to rebound on the back of their young crop, especially on the back of their recent top 10 acquisitions. Now they have a very good ruck and forward, they are starting to build the structure. They were very bare boned besides when their rebuild began though, which has stalled their rebuild somewhat. Richmond have plenty of seasoned players and a few young players that look like being good players. Granted some of those established players will rely on a season or two without injury, which would be a nice change.

Another example is Hawthorn who have come from the clouds, again with not much senior experience, and on the back of getting games into young talent. Can happen quickly sometimes.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Recent? It was half a decade ago. By the time you're competitive again it'll be 10 years.

Still feels like yesterday - it's a glorious thing

 

[Grrr]

Still feels like yesterday - it's a glorious thing

10 years is not long, seems longer than that Essendon won a final.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

10 years is not long, seems longer than that Essendon won a final.

I was trying so hard not to go there

But seriously, personally my cup is still so full in this respect, so there's no better time for a few years in the doldrums. Nobody wants to bottom out, but if it had to happen, now is the perfect time I guess.

Hawks had a similar experience after 2013-15 I'm sure, although they hadn't been as success-starved as us Tiger ferals, so maybe their post-dynasty collapse might not have felt so tolerable? Hard to know. Geelong's 07-09-11 run would've felt more similar to their long suffering fans to what we feel I'd imagine.

 

[Purple Suit]

Really, Norths top 10 picks of the last few years have been impressive from the get go.

Harry Sheezel is a gun, in his first 2 seasons he averages 28 possessions per game.
Wardlaw looked like a gun about to really go
Colby McKercher in his first season was a gun and averaged 23 disposals.
Jason Horne Francis, gun.

And they are not alone, plenty of 10 ten picks are guns by their second and third years.

North have taken so long because their kids had so little support. They did not have established players like Taranto and Hopper, much less Prestia, Lynch, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Broad, Balta and a few others Premiership players.

Add Gibcus to the list of top 10 draftees coming back, he is due some luck and played 18 games in his first year.

If injuries don't scuttle us, we might snag some wins.

North have 4 top 25 draft picks playing for them righ now. Richmond will have 10 top 25 draft picks, this year and next, 4 of them top 6 or so, there is room for a quicker than normal turnaround.

You’re over rating your list.

Taranto = LDU
Hopper = Simpkin

The rest are nearly washed up but besides the flags/experience , the following have similar or better on field output.

Lynch - Larkie
Prestia - Zurhaar
Nank - Xerri
Vlastin - Fisher
Broad - Shiel
Balta - Mcdonald

West Coast had a bunch of premiership stars yet could barely win a game a few years ago too.

 

[tiger_tough]

You’re over rating your list.

Taranto = LDU
Hopper = Simpkin

The rest are nearly washed up but besides the flags/experience , the following have similar or better on field output.

Lynch - Larkie
Prestia - Zurhaar
Nank - Xerri
Vlastin - Fisher
Broad - Shiel
Balta - Mcdonald

West Coast had a bunch of premiership stars yet could barely win a game a few years ago too.

 

[Grrr]

You’re over rating your list.

Taranto = LDU
Hopper = Simpkin

The rest are nearly washed up but besides the flags/experience , the following have similar or better on field output.

Lynch - Larkie
Prestia - Zurhaar
Nank - Xerri
Vlastin - Fisher
Broad - Shiel
Balta - Mcdonald

West Coast had a bunch of premiership stars yet could barely win a game a few years ago too.

And you are under rating. Fisher equals Vlastuin, just goes to show how under rated he and Broad are. Balta and Mcdonald?

Prestia is the only one on the list that may be nearly washed up but he just came 5th in the 2km, so maybe he is due some luck. Nothing like Zurhaar, and Zurhaar will never be near as good as Prestia was, but he is only another injury away.

Lynch is due some luck but Larkey is a very good player, and Xerri is better than Nank, but Xerri was near AA last season.

Taranto and Hopper are not as good as LDU and Simpkin. The thing is North are on the rebuild and nobody would be surprised to see them jump up the ladder. But how long has it taken.

A year or two ago, WC were recruiting WAFL players mainly due to injury, much like Richmond last year.

Neither of those sides have had the luxury of adding 8 highly rated draftee's in one year, with another 2 top 1-6 next year. We might stall down the bottom for another year or two, but the rebound may come quicker than the 5-10 years that has been mentioned on here.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Taranto and Hopper are not as good as LDU and Simpkin. The thing is North are on the rebuild and nobody would be surprised to see them jump up the ladder. But how long has it taken.

I think this is why the expectation is that it takes a long time for Richmond.

North picked up LDU, Simpkin, Larkey, Zurharr and Xerri in just 2 drafts in 2016-17. Realistically Richmond would be very happy to get 5 players of that quality from the 2024 draft.

Those players have played 7 and 8 years in the AFL and North are still a basket case. They should rebound hard soon with those guys plus gun youngsters coming through but when you're rebuilding from the bare bones it takes a long, long time.

Just look at what Richmond's list will be in 2028. Balta is the only proven good player who will be under 30 at that point. You're going to require utterly miraculous development of your current under 24s to be remotely competitive at that point let alone be pushing for finals.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think this is why the expectation is that it takes a long time for Richmond.

North picked up LDU, Simpkin, Larkey, Zurharr and Xerri in just 2 drafts in 2016-17. Realistically Richmond would be very happy to get 5 players of that quality from the 2024 draft.

Those players have played 7 and 8 years in the AFL and North are still a basket case. They should rebound hard soon with those guys plus gun youngsters coming through but when you're rebuilding from the bare bones it takes a long, long time.

Just look at what Richmond's list will be in 2028. Balta is the only proven good player who will be under 30 at that point. You're going to require utterly miraculous development of your current under 24s to be remotely competitive at that point let alone be pushing for finals.

Agree with all that. The one advantage Richmond will have, is when they start to look even semi decent, they will find it alot easier to attract players then North due to being a big Melbourne club. Will also help them retain players.

It'll still be a long project but that might help cut off a couple of years.

 

[Grrr]

I think this is why the expectation is that it takes a long time for Richmond.

North picked up LDU, Simpkin, Larkey, Zurharr and Xerri in just 2 drafts in 2016-17. Realistically Richmond would be very happy to get 5 players of that quality from the 2024 draft.

Those players have played 7 and 8 years in the AFL and North are still a basket case. They should rebound hard soon with those guys plus gun youngsters coming through but when you're rebuilding from the bare bones it takes a long, long time.

Just look at what Richmond's list will be in 2028. Balta is the only proven good player who will be under 30 at that point. You're going to require utterly miraculous development of your current under 24s to be remotely competitive at that point let alone be pushing for finals.

One 'good player under 30 in 2028' means every other young player on our list comes to nothing. That is just unrealistic.

You've written off Gibcus despite looking a serious player before injury. Campbell, Brown, McAuliffe, RalphSmith, Trezise, Banks, Bauer, Green, Smith all came in and did well, 7 of those in pretty much their first seasons in the seniors. Others were injured which stalled their progress. How any these players progress nobody will know until this year is out.

The difference between this draft and others is that it is considered a strong draft especially at the top end. Lalor and Smillie were always top 10 players, Smillie no.1 early in the season. Hotton before injury was tipped to go top 5. Trainor after the Champs was in every mock drafts top 10. Armstrong much the same. Add another 2 next year and that is 8 players in two years that were at some stage prospective top 10 picks.

Larkey was pick 73, Xerri 72, Zurharr a rookie, Simkin 12 and LDU their only top 10 at 4. You can go through every side over drafts and find late picks that come good, but the odds lessen the further out you go.

Richmond had Premiership players Grimes, Broad, Baker, Short, Lambert, Pickett and Castagna who weren't drafted but came via rookie or midseason drafts.

Also you are not factoring any 'good' players who may want to come Richmond. Every side attracts that, Geelong of all sides should know that. We were a basket case in 2016 when we drafted Nankervis, Prestia and Caddy. Add Lynch to that lot.

 

[Footy Smarts]

One 'good player under 30 in 2028' means every other young player on our list comes to nothing. That is just unrealistic.

You could've saved the detailed rant and just read my post properly.

I said Balta is the only proven good player on your list who will be under 30 come 2028.

Of course some others will make it in some way.

But in 2028 your current list will be:

1) whichever of the current young fringe and VFL types make it
2) a bunch of talented kids in only their 4th year (21-22 years old).
3) Balta
4) Taranto (30), Hopper (31), Short (32)

You compared that to Hawthorn this year who had Sicily, Impey, Amon, Hardwick, Meek, Nash, Scrimshaw, Morrison, Worpel, Moore, Day and Newcombe all in the 23-29 age range. It's a completely different demographic.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Richmond could rebound a bit quicker than the time-line being suggested or 5 or 6 years. It often takes young kids a while to build their bodies, but Lalor and Smillie and are already big bodies.

This isn't always the bonus that you think it is. They've spent their junior careers being bigger than their opponents.
Now they move into the AFL where they're playing against guys they don't have a size advantage on.

 

[Grrr]

This isn't always the bonus that you think it is. They've spent their junior careers being bigger than their opponents.
Now they move into the AFL where they're playing against guys they don't have a size advantage on.

Yes that is always a factor although with Lalor who is 188cm and about 85+kg's that won't be such a factor. Like Petracca and Martin, they don't need extra size, just conditioning and strength. Smillie is a mid at 195cm and 90 odd kg's, so again that is not such a factor. They will need the fitness not the size.

Tall always take longer but in two years time they will be ready if the are any good. Kids we drafted last year are at size now and just need the legs. Others a bit older like Lefau is as strong as anyone in the comp.

 

[Grrr]

You could've saved the detailed rant and just read my post properly.

I said Balta is the only proven good player on your list who will be under 30 come 2028.

Of course some others will make it in some way.

But in 2028 your current list will be:

1) whichever of the current young fringe and VFL types make it
2) a bunch of talented kids in only their 4th year (21-22 years old).
3) Balta
4) Taranto (30), Hopper (31), Short (32)

You compared that to Hawthorn this year who had Sicily, Impey, Amon, Hardwick, Meek, Nash, Scrimshaw, Morrison, Worpel, Moore, Day and Newcombe all in the 23-29 age range. It's a completely different demographic.

How do you become proven if you are just starting. So yes you may be right as far as proven goes, but now that others have been finally given a go and in their best position they are becoming players. 2028 is three seasons away, plenty of time for some of those players to establish themselves.

So yes we are thin right now on talent in that 23-38 age group, there are others that I would consider in the 4) category.
Also top 10 draft picks types get there much faster than later picks. The players you mentioned from Hawthorn, Scrimshaw was pick 7, Day was 13, most of the rest come from a long way back and have taken time to establish themselves.

In two or three years time, when the young crop start coming through, I am sure we will have the equivalent of the names you mention in our side. 2 of them were imports also. How long did it take for Rowell, JHF, Reid, Butters, Daicos, Anderson, Serong, Wardlaw, McKercher etc to become proven players? Not long.

 

[Footy Smarts]

How do you become proven if you are just starting. So yes you may be right as far as proven goes, but now that others have been finally given a go and in their best position they are becoming players. 2028 is three seasons away, plenty of time for some of those players to establish themselves.

So yes we are thin right now on talent in that 23-38 age group, there are others that I would consider in the 4) category.
Also top 10 draft picks types get there much faster than later picks. The players you mentioned from Hawthorn, Scrimshaw was pick 7, Day was 13, most of the rest come from a long way back and have taken time to establish themselves.

In two or three years time, when the young crop start coming through, I am sure we will have the equivalent of the names you mention in our side. 2 of them were imports also. How long did it take for Rowell, JHF, Reid, Butters, Daicos, Anderson, Serong, Wardlaw, McKercher etc to become proven players? Not long.

This is pretty delusional.

Your young crop that you just drafted will be 21-22 in 2028. That's not their prime years.

The older ones are "just starting" mainly cause they couldn't break into a poor side the last few years.

We'll see how things shake out over the coming years.

But I suspect your opinion that Richmond will bounce back fast will look about as good as when you compared RCD to Petracca, called Tyler Young "one of the best defenders in the league" and when you were pumping up guys like Cumberland, Dow and Sonsie this time last year.

 

[Grrr]

This is pretty delusional.

Your young crop that you just drafted will be 21-22 in 2028. That's not their prime years.

The older ones are "just starting" mainly cause they couldn't break into a poor side the last few years.

We'll see how things shake out over the coming years.

But I suspect your opinion that Richmond will bounce back fast will look about as good as when you compared RCD to Petracca, called Tyler Young "one of the best defenders in the league" and when you were pumping up guys like Cumberland, Dow and Sonsie this time last year.

Who said anything about prime years, I said they will be developing, and being top 10 types they will develop quicker than those drafted as late draft pics or rookies, in general.

We've had this argument before about players not being able to break into a 3 x Premiership side, it's difficult, especially when things start falling apart. Coaches are loyal and do not discard established players for young kids.

You certainly pic your quotes, I might have mentioned elements of a players game like RCD being a big mid with good breakaway speed, Petracca like, and that was probably from draft highlights. Sonsie and Cumberland had great first seasons, then disappeared for whatever reason. Fair enough to pump their tyres and have expectations, like all supporters.
Young after 8 games was second in the league for one on one wins, not a chance I said he was one of the best defenders in the league. He came from nowhere so reason to be hopeful. But he did a knee so we will see.

I have been circumspect with naming players who I feel will be good players this season, but have mentioned that quite a few of them are tracking nicely. But again, you know our list better than any one so I will defer to you from now on.