Draft Watcher eDPS Draft Watch 2020

[eDPS]

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Can't wait for the 2021 and 2022 editions too.

 

[Billyc]

Veeerrrry interesting Riley Thilthorpes draft projection range..... 1-10

This might give a little weight to those OP concern & Thilthorpe sliding rumours..

Intrigued by his ceiling not being considered elite too. Same as Philips. Would be interested to hear an explanation on that given their draft projections

Really good read

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Pie 4 Life and eDPS.

The crew did well with it.

Another outstanding year and comprehensive too.

I wish the next week would speed on by.

Cheers guys.

Also, if anyone else with Draft Central is on here, thank you.

Let's just say I'm glad it's done. The amount of times we went over every profile, discussed, went through it, adjusted it. Was just nuts. Big sigh of relief haha.

 

[andleanback]

Let's just say I'm glad it's done. The amount of times we went over every profile, discussed, went through it, adjusted it. Was just nuts. Big sigh of relief haha.

Well done mate. Huge effort

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Intrigued by his ceiling not being considered elite too. Same as Philips. Would be interested to hear an explanation on that given their draft projections

Really good read

It's been a discussion across myself, eDPS and Michael our AFL Draft Editor as well. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we don't. Thilthorpe is one who could easily be elite, but there's the argument for above average too. Phillips is more readymade and there was some suggestion to maybe even be an average but I stuck with the above average there because I still think he has some good upside.

I think when we think ceiling is how much they hit beyond what they produce at the moment. It's always the toughest one to judge because it is purely opinion. In some cases if a player is already at a 7 they might get to an 8/9 compared to someone at a 4/5 that could get to the same. I certainly don't disagree with either of those assumptions, but it is more the ability they have already shown.

Even as late as today we were making changes because we knew the colours would be the most discussed and being opinion-based it will always be difficult to get it 100% right in the minds of everyone. The best way we could do it was to get multiple thoughts and came to a mutual agreement by the end of it.

Thanks again.

 

[briztoon]

Intrigued by his ceiling not being considered elite too. Same as Philips. Would be interested to hear an explanation on that given their draft projections

Really good read

Don’t get so caught up in a players ceiling.

They’re basically saying potential to turn in to a Dusty or Fyfe, a Neale or Zorko*. Does the player possess attributes to an elite player in the competition.

Maybe 1 in 20 players with an elite ceiling hits their ceiling.

*Now I mentioned Zorko, because they have Jake Bowey listed as having an elite ceiling. If Bowey reaches his ceiling, he has the potential to be a better version of Zorko.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Isn't someone's "ceiling," "floor" and "wall" just a guide and not something to pin your hopes on?

They can't emulate another player well because, well, they're different players.

 

[andleanback]

Don’t get so caught up in a players ceiling.

They’re basically saying potential to turn in to a Dusty or Fyfe, a Neale or Zorko*. Does the player possess attributes to an elite player in the competition.

Maybe 1 in 20 players with an elite ceiling hits their ceiling.

*Now I mentioned Zorko, because they have Jake Bowey listed as having an elite ceiling. If Bowey reaches his ceiling, he has the potential to be a better version of Zorko.

The only thing bowey has to worry about is his size. I have the same confidence in him as I did in Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

. Elite foot skills hold you in good stead at afl level.

 

[briztoon]

The only thing bowey has to worry about is his size. I have the same confidence in him as I did in Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

. Elite foot skills hold you in good stead at afl level.

Same size as Zorko, similar build (just needs to put muscle on), better skills.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Why is Zorko the go to comparison for short buggers much like how Fyfe and Cripps are for the tall midfielders?

Can we part with nonsense comparisons?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Yeah this year we had four different eyes over it in terms of draft watchers and the three main ones of us went in detail, there was a whole list of different stuff that we weighed up. You'll never find everyone agreeing on everything even when we have similar views on players.

It's a difficult task when it comes to adding opinion to the straight facts, but then again everything to do with rating players on a scale (including power rankings) is opinion. The big benefit we have is being able to ask multiple people and try and come to a conclusion, and that was really healthy this year because we had more time, and had put out a full timeline to have it done a couple of weeks ago and just keep going over it over the past fortnight.

 

[andleanback]

Why is Zorko the go to comparison for short buggers much like how Fyfe and Cripps are for the tall midfielders?

Can we part with nonsense comparisons?

Because zorko is one of the few short players that has made it in the midfield at afl level. Most guys at his height who are midfielders at underage level have to either move to defence or the forward line to get games.

 

[eastfreo75]

Do Freo need another KPD? They've got Pearce, Hamling, Cox, and Logue

Possible that Cox goes forward and either or both Hamling and Pearce stay injured.

Hamling retires in four years or less and then Chapman replaces him.

 

[fightingfury_88]

Fantastic effort as always in perhaps the most difficult year of all to scout prospects. Very much looking forward to this read.

 

[Bastyy]

Great work this year Pie 4 Life and eDPS, even better considering all the road bumps that 2020 has had!

 

[THE_GUN]

Fantastic effort Pie 4 Life and eDPS

The work involved is huge and hate to even guess the man hours that it has taken to produce the end result and let me just say - Thank You

Just out of curiosity though, I notice there are alot of players with varying heights e.g Maurice Rioli
He has been posted as being anywhere between 169cm -179cm depending on where you look.
How much do you guys research this and how accurate would this info be ?

 

[eDPS]

Fantastic effort Pie 4 Life and eDPS

The work involved is huge and hate to even guess the man hours that it has taken to produce the end result and let me just say - Thank You

Just out of curiosity though, I notice there are alot of players with varying heights e.g Maurice Rioli
He has been posted as being anywhere between 169cm -179cm depending on where you look.
How much do you guys research this and how accurate would this info be ?

Our heights and weights are correct for the guide

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Fantastic effort Pie 4 Life and eDPS

The work involved is huge and hate to even guess the man hours that it has taken to produce the end result and let me just say - Thank You

Just out of curiosity though, I notice there are alot of players with varying heights e.g Maurice Rioli
He has been posted as being anywhere between 169cm -179cm depending on where you look.
How much do you guys research this and how accurate would this info be ?

Our heights are weights taken are the official ones from the end of yesr combines.

The only cases where they aren’t are those who didn’t go to combines in which case we used their 2020 preseason height/weight or for some mature agers those listed like SANFL for example.

Any of those main draft profiles though are official measurements from the most recent combines.

 

[Billyc]

It's been a discussion across myself, eDPS and Michael our AFL Draft Editor as well. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we don't. Thilthorpe is one who could easily be elite, but there's the argument for above average too. Phillips is more readymade and there was some suggestion to maybe even be an average but I stuck with the above average there because I still think he has some good upside.

I think when we think ceiling is how much they hit beyond what they produce at the moment. It's always the toughest one to judge because it is purely opinion. In some cases if a player is already at a 7 they might get to an 8/9 compared to someone at a 4/5 that could get to the same. I certainly don't disagree with either of those assumptions, but it is more the ability they have already shown.

Even as late as today we were making changes because we knew the colours would be the most discussed and being opinion-based it will always be difficult to get it 100% right in the minds of everyone. The best way we could do it was to get multiple thoughts and came to a mutual agreement by the end of it.

Thanks again.

Thanks for the response. The Thilthorpe opinion is interesting. I'd have thought his ceiling is perceived to be high given where he is being projected when his actual performances to date are not through the roof. I take it your view - or rather the collective view of the authors - is that you do not rate him as highly as it seems some clubs do, given he's in the pick 1 conversation?

A really excellent and interesting resource, well done.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Thanks for the response. The Thilthorpe opinion is interesting. I'd have thought his ceiling is perceived to be high given where he is being projected when his actual performances to date are not through the roof. I take it your view - or rather the collective view of the authors - is that you do not rate him as highly as it seems some clubs do, given he's in the pick 1 conversation?

A really excellent and interesting resource, well done.

I think he's probably that mid top-10 pick for sure. My own personal opinion is regarding the few injuries he's had, as well as when he is out on the park, he is generally as senior made as they come (he was playing senior footy prior to McDonald) compared to others around the same level (particularly when it comes to talls) and what he could produce.

We're talking about the difference between potentially being a top five player in a team and top 10 player in a team. I can 100% see the argument for an elite ceiling. As I said the final rating we put in does not mean we're sold on that rating. If we'd put elite for example, I would not have disagreed with it either. More so the rating of 'elite' should be the least used one, and often it's reserved for those that might be a first round player with the potential of being the best player in the draft, or perhaps a later pick being talked up as a top 10 from the draft down the track.

If we rate Riley at say Pick 4/5, and he has an above average ceiling, he could easily be that Pick 1/2 from this draft. Same with Will Phillips. It's more the ones that might be readymade now say in the top 30 who have an average ceiling, might improve marginally but they're expected to be that 10-18 type player (as a generalisation, it is all opinion).

As briztoon said, I wouldn't get too caught up in the ceiling rating as ideally it would be great to be more options, because if elite was 9-10/10, above average 6-8/10, Riley would be considered an 8. So he's basically right on that border IMO.

 

[Mego Red]

Crows nominated Ben Jarman for the ND and took him in the rookie draft when he wasn't bid on, so you don't have to take them in the ND.

Crows nominate Jarman

Adelaide has nominated Ben Jarman as a potential father-son recruit at the AFL draft

www.afc.com.au

That's incorrect.

Google again - we DIDN'T ultimately nominate Jarman for the main draft.

AFL draft 2016: Adelaide decide not to nominate Ben Jarman as father-son pick

Adelaide won't take Ben Jarman as a father-son selection in next week's draft after choosing not to nominate the small forward at the final bidding deadline on Friday.

www.theage.com.au

Like Simpson, we nominated AFTER the main draft.

AFL draft 2016: Geelong and Adelaide to take father-sons as rookies

Geelong and Adelaide are set to secure respective father-son prospects Sam Simpson and Ben Jarman at Monday's AFL rookie draft.

www.theage.com.au

Vader and I have had debates about this on our board, Thetrader15.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Jake Bowey is a player that has me intrigued Ed, where do you see his draft range?

Would Adelaide's #22 #23 be too early? Could he last to our #40?

Given his Saints ties would they look at him with #21?

Nice write-up in the Draft Report...

 

[WeedsMullet84]

I think he's probably that mid top-10 pick for sure. My own personal opinion is regarding the few injuries he's had, as well as when he is out on the park, he is generally as senior made as they come (he was playing senior footy prior to McDonald) compared to others around the same level (particularly when it comes to talls) and what he could produce.

We're talking about the difference between potentially being a top five player in a team and top 10 player in a team. I can 100% see the argument for an elite ceiling. As I said the final rating we put in does not mean we're sold on that rating. If we'd put elite for example, I would not have disagreed with it either. More so the rating of 'elite' should be the least used one, and often it's reserved for those that might be a first round player with the potential of being the best player in the draft, or perhaps a later pick being talked up as a top 10 from the draft down the track.

If we rate Riley at say Pick 4/5, and he has an above average ceiling, he could easily be that Pick 1/2 from this draft. Same with Will Phillips. It's more the ones that might be readymade now say in the top 30 who have an average ceiling, might improve marginally but they're expected to be that 10-18 type player (as a generalisation, it is all opinion).

As briztoon said, I wouldn't get too caught up in the ceiling rating as ideally it would be great to be more options, because if elite was 9-10/10, above average 6-8/10, Riley would be considered an 8. So he's basically right on that border IMO.

I noticed that there were some fairly tight draft projections on some players, eg Hollands with a Pick 1-5 prediction, or Logan McDonald with 1-3

Curious to know whether the 1-10 draft range on Thilthorpe is more to do with injury concerns (OP?) and performances towards the end of the year, or whether there's some intel floating around that he will slide in the draft?

 

[Thetrader15]

That's incorrect.

Google again - we DIDN'T ultimately nominate Jarman for the main draft.

AFL draft 2016: Adelaide decide not to nominate Ben Jarman as father-son pick

Adelaide won't take Ben Jarman as a father-son selection in next week's draft after choosing not to nominate the small forward at the final bidding deadline on Friday.

www.theage.com.au

Like Simpson, we nominated AFTER the main draft.

AFL draft 2016: Geelong and Adelaide to take father-sons as rookies

Geelong and Adelaide are set to secure respective father-son prospects Sam Simpson and Ben Jarman at Monday's AFL rookie draft.

www.theage.com.au

Vader and I have had debates about this on our board, Thetrader15.

I didn't know that.

Interesting, pie4life posted this:

"8.8 Father/Son Rookie Pre-Selection (a) Subject to Rule 8.8(b), where an eligible Father/Son Player has been nominated in accordance with Rule 8.4(b) and is not selected at a National Draft or PreSeason Draft Selection Meeting, the Club with whom he is eligible as a 57 Father/Son Player may include him on its Rookie List prior to the Rookie Draft Selection Meeting in accordance with Rule 10.4."

I am intrigued by the word "may include him on its Rookie List prior to the Rookie Draft Selection Meeting in accordance with Rule 10.4."

 

[Thetrader15]

Because zorko is one of the few short players that has made it in the midfield at afl level. Most guys at his height who are midfielders at underage level have to either move to defence or the forward line to get games.

Treloar, Neale, Ablett, Brent Harvey

Brent Harvey

Age

46

Ht

167cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

8.2

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

0.6

3star

G

0.6

3star

, Sam Mitchell, Prestia, Merrett, Rowell (ok, too early, but he will make it)