Analysis Finals opponent - Best to worst outcomes

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It's looking pretty likely now that the top 3 will be Hawthorn GWS and Geelong. Which means that 4th spot is between Sydney and Adelaide. Most likely Sydney. Not the worst outcome for us as it's always good to play interstate team on the MCG in finals. So if the results went the way of ladder positions our run in would be:

QF v Sydney (MCG)
PF v Geelong (MCG)
GF v GWS (MCG)

Not an easy run but I will take it. The fact that all the games are being played at the MCG is the biggest bonus. Whoever wins the flag is going to have to beat at least 3 really good teams in the finals. The premier will definitely have earned it this season.
 
It's looking pretty likely now that the top 3 will be Hawthorn GWS and Geelong. Which means that 4th spot is between Sydney and Adelaide. Most likely Sydney. Not the worst outcome for us as it's always good to play interstate team on the MCG in finals. So if the results went the way of ladder positions our run in would be:

QF v Sydney (MCG)
PF v Geelong (MCG)
GF v GWS (MCG)

Not an easy run but I will take it. The fact that all the games are being played at the MCG is the biggest bonus. Whoever wins the flag is going to have to beat at least 3 really good teams in the finals. The premier will definitely have earned it this season.
These three are the best of the other teams going round, so reckon this is fair task if we are to win four in a row. I can see Geelong beating GWS though, even at Spotless, which sees the PF and GF reversed.
 

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just going to stick to the grannies and point out +'s and -'s of some of who I believe are our potential opponents... (disregarding Bulldogs, West Coast and Kangas who i think are all shot but would obviously be preferential in a grand final)

vs Swans -
Positives:
1-1 with them in grand finals this era, would be nice to edge them.
Love beating an AFL love child.
Drive home the mistake that Buddy made walking out on us for $$$.
Negatives:
they may have the edge over us in this era 2-1
Buddy gets revenge
Would not stop hearing about the media created "BLUDZ KULCHA"

vs Geelong -
Positives:
The 08 rematch the footy world has long awaited (what a spectacle it would be)
Glory would be endless if we were victorious
Ends the 'dead horse' debate about whose era was better (we are already streets ahead)
Negatives:
Lose and the ramifications are huge, stronger claims to matching us during this era
Just the general horrid feeling of knowing they (duckwood, mercenary and "mission accomplished") got one at our direct expense...
MCG advantage is completely nullified

vs GWS -
Positives:
Just like Sydney, love beating an AFL love child... but this would taste sweeter knowing how much the AFL wants them to win it.
Get to be the first team to beat them in a granny and tick another one off our hit list.
Think it would actually be a tough, memorable match where our experience would pip them
MCG advantage in full effect
Negatives:
Would truly hate giving them their first of whats going to be the "dark ages" of AFL... their era could possibly be monumental...
They are a dangerous team, match up well against us and their speed is a real issue, need we bring up our season game earlier this year?

vs Adelaide -
Positives:
A team I wouldn't be devastated losing a hard fought match to as long as we gave it our best.
Tick another one off the hit list.
We have the grand final experience over them going in
Consolation prize is to see 'dangermercenary' regret moving to the handbaggers if the cats were victorious. :p
Negatives:
Very powerful forward line who could cause us big issues
Dont believe our MCG advantage is as strong against them and believe it will be nullified to a degree

just general musings at 2am in europe.... take what ive written with a pinch o' salt
 
Best outcome: We win the silverware.
Worst outcome: We don't.

Seriously, if we start playing our September footy, then I can't see us losing to anyone if we avoid travelling interstate.

Odds against Melbourne: After two rather crap performances, we are dur for a good performance, and that should be enough to put Melbourne supporters in skiing mode.

From there we should start improving, and showing the other contenders just what would be required to beat us.
 
I would yes. GWS travel appallingly but they are very hard to beat at home. Going to Adelaide and ANZ/SCG isn't too big a deal for us as we've done it and won numerous times. We've only been to Blacktown twice so it's more of a step into the unknown in terms of what preparation works etc. Plus GWS match up very well on us, while I think we have Adelaide/Sydney's number

agreed

I have seen gws belt us twice at Spotless... scarred me for life. they also beat t he swans there. for me playing a t spotless must be avoided at all costs
 
No doubt in my mind GWS has an X factor(they have no scarring where Hawthorn's concerned,perhaps the opposite) but meeting them in a final on the G doesn't scare me.Just have a feeling big game experience will hold sway(and nullify big Mummy).
 
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No doubt in my mind GWS has an X factor(they have no scarring where Hawthorn's concerned,perhaps the opposite) but meeting them in a final on the G doesn't scare me.Just have a feeling big game experience will hold sway(and nullify big Mummy).
Big difference between playing us on their home deck in front of a small and favourable crowd, and playing us on the MCG in front of 80k+ of which there would likely be a heavily Hawthorn crowd (assuming Hawk supporters are able to purchase the unused GWS allocation and the "neutrals" barracking for GWS won't be as passionately loud as us).

Anyone know the biggest crowd they've played in front of? I'm guessing it'd be less than half of what a GF would get.

Our GF experience is worth heaps. It would be the 5th year in a row for the majority of our team. Some of our players will be doing it for the 6th time. Cyril will have undergone GF week as a participating player in 67% of all his career seasons. Burgoyne will be doing it for like an 8th time in his. Hill will out do Cyril with an 80% participation rate. Our players will know the drill and they'll know what works and what doesn't in terms of their preparation.

GWS and even most of the other sides too won't have that experience. Their young players might be highly skilled and talented but that won't give them the experience that prevents them from playing the game over and over in their head all week and the night before. That won't give them the experience to not run around like a headless chook trying to be involved in everything in the opening 5 minutes before realising they're stuffed. To be able to shut out the loudest roar from 2-3x the most people they've ever played in front of as they line up for a shot at goal.
 

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Not afraid of any side at any venue. No team has our experience, and conversely they're all tough combos who match us on paper. A Hawk win in any final will have nothing to do with home advantages and everything to do with how professionally we can overcome the opposition. We've played GWS in the last two games at the Showgrounds giving a distinct impression of not turning up and respecting the opposition 100% - that will not happen in a September matchup. The rest have a track record against Hawthorn which suggests they will be as worried about playing us at their own home grounds, as we supposedly would be playing them on their home grounds. If we lose, it will be because they are better sides on the day, and nothing to do with venue...no extra pressure, because it's all pressure anyway...

We are the only side to have beaten 10 other clubs to rack up our 13 flags...Melbourne on 12 have only ever beaten four...it would be nice to get GWS or Adelaide for that reason, but otherwise it's all about legitimising the season (all the negative crap we've endured in a season we can't say we've dominated), so you'd think we must beat Sydney and Geelong in finals, preferably the big one, to silence the doubters...
 
We are the only side to have beaten 10 other clubs to rack up our 13 flags....

Essendon have also beaten 10 other clubs in grand finals: Geelong, Collingwood (2), South Melbourne, Fitzroy, Richmond (2), Melbourne (2), Carlton (3), North Melbourne, St Kilda, Hawthorn (2).
 
1. Hawthorn
60 points (15 wins, three losses) 124.3 per cent

Two games clear and now with four to play, the Hawks can still drop out of the top four if they don't take care of business from here. North and West Coast within six days of each other are the big ones to come and the 'good' Collingwood in the season finale could cause complications as well. They wouldn't want to play too many more games this year without Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo – both vitally important to Hawthorn's structure.

The run home
Rd 20: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 21: North Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Adelaide, first qualifying final, MCG




2. Greater Western Sydney
52 points (13 wins, five losses), 142.0 per cent

The Giants added a whopping six percentage points after breaking their duck in their destruction of Richmond on Sunday. They should win their next three without complications, but their hold on second place will likely come down to the round 23 game, away to North. Win that and GWS is looking at two home finals, including potentially a home preliminary final – a remarkable performance.

The run home
Rd 20: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 21: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: GWS v Sydney Swans, second qualifying final, ANZ Stadium




3. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, five losses), 140.0 per cent

The Swans also enjoyed a bumper six percentage point increase after their hammering of Fremantle on Sunday and could win all four games from here to the finals. Now in a percentage race with Giants, Cats and Crows for top two, top four and the double chance, so there can be no let-up here. North in Tassie will be their toughest game from here to the finals.

The run home
Rd 20: Port Adelaide (SCG)
Rd 21: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)

Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: GWS v Sydney Swans, second qualifying final, ANZ Stadium




4. Geelong

52 points (13 wins, five losses), 133.1 per cent

Geelong should run the table from here and the next three weeks in particular offer real hopes of boosting its percentage to close the gap on the Swans and Giants. If GWS or the Swans do drop a game then the Cats will be ready to pounce on a top-two finish. But here's the poser for the Cats: Who would they rather play in the opening week of the finals if they don't finish top two? – Hawthorn at the MCG or GWS at Spotless?

The run home
Rd 20: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)

Predicted finish: fifth
Predicted final match-up: Geelong v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG




5. Adelaide

52 (13 wins, five losses), 133.0 per cent

Amazing. By letting Essendon kick three junk-time goals late in the final quarter on Sunday, the Crows threw away their chance to move ahead of Geelong into fourth place. The percentage battle between teams second to fifth is desperately close, but with the hopeless Lions and hapless Dockers in the next two weeks, Adelaide still has a chance to move past its rivals into the top four. The game that will cause the Crows the most anxiety between now and September is the Showdown in round 23 where form traditionally, has counted for zero.

The run home
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 21: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: Hawthorn v Adelaide, first qualifying final, MCG




6. West Coast

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 129.1 per cent

Saturday at the MCG could have been a statement game for the Eagles, but the meek final quarter against Collingwood again underlined the view that they aren't quite at the level of the best of the competition. They need to win one more game to make absolutely sure of making the finals, but there are no gimmes for the rest of the season, starting with the 'away' derby next week. There is something about West Coast and white shorts that isn't quite working in 2016.

The run home
Rd 20: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 21: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v West Coast, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium




7. Western Bulldogs

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 115.7 per cent

The spirit was willing, but the bodies weren't against Geelong on Friday night and the injury toll at the Whitten Oval is starting to spiral out of control at the wrong end of the season. The double chance still beckons, but a more realistic goal might be a home elimination final, and they need to win three of their last four for that to be a chance. Indeed, they need one more win to finally book their finals appearance once and for all. North and the Pies in the next fortnight will be tricky.

The run home
Rd 20: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v West Coast, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium.




8. North Melbourne

48 points (12 wins, six losses), 112.9 per cent

The Kangas didn't earn many style points, but they got the win for Boomer in his record-breaking 427th game and more importantly all but cemented their finals berth for 2016. North's fate from here is in its own hands and while the draw is difficult, every win from here will likely elevate it at least one position up the ladder. So a top-six finish and perhaps even the double chance is not out of the question. And after a pair of hard-fought wins, the form and confidence from the first part of the season might be returning.

The run home
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 22: Sydney Swans (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: Geelong v North Melbourne, first elimination final, MCG
How have you calculated the Cats coming fifth given the four spuds they have got to come?
 
If we play gws in the grand final we will batter those blokes physically, they wont know what the hell is going on. It will take speed and quickness on their behalf out of the equation, there will be a few young guys in particular i think will lose the plot under physical duress toby green is a prime example, there is no way we will allow them to run rings around us.
 
Imo the club see geelong as the main obstacle to history being made, there best is better than gws imo and they have the grand final experience in their team that offsets any advantage we would have against anyone else. There is a good reason we are seeing burgoyne featuring prominently in the middle every game the past few weeks, he is the 1 man who can go head to head with danger and hold his own.
 
How have you calculated the Cats coming fifth given the four spuds they have got to come?
I read this earlier in the week and thought the same thing. They seemed to think that Adelaide would build their percentage, but of the two you'd think Geelong would have the advantage there...
 
Given the current logjam in the 8 it would seem that, as it stands, almost any permutation is possible at the completion of the final round. There will definitely be some luck involved in which opponent we draw to face first week of finals. That luck could determine the fate of our season and quest for a four-peat.

As it stands I would rank the order of preferability as follows...

Home final (Finish 1st/2nd/5th/6th)
  1. West Coast (Seem to be our bitches on the MCG)
  2. GWS (Beat us at Spotless but I would back us in on the MCG)
  3. North Melbourne (Came very close to beating us at Etihad earlier in the season)
  4. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
  5. Adelaide (Came very close to beating us at the MCG earlier in the season)
  6. Sydney (Already beat us at the MCG this season)
  7. Geelong (Already beat us at the MCG this season)
Away final (Finish 3rd/4th/7th/8th)
  1. North Melbourne (Unlikely it would pan out like this but I would back us in v NM even if they are at home)
  2. Bulldogs (Came very close to beating us at Etihad. Would back us in in a final at the MCG)
  3. Geelong (Geelong at the MCG should at worst be a 50-50)
  4. West Coast (I think we just match up well against West Coast even if we have to go to Perth)
  5. GWS (Hopefully lack of finals experience would effect them in their first final)
  6. Sydney (Would be a very tough ask)
  7. Adelaide (I really don't fancy playing Adelaide in a final at Adelaide Oval).

Its looking like the options have been whittled down to the following....

Away final (Finish 3rd/4th)
  1. Geelong (Geelong at the MCG should at worst be a 50-50)
  2. Sydney (Would be a very tough ask)
  3. Adelaide (I really don't fancy playing Adelaide in a final at Adelaide Oval).
 
We'll probably play Sydney. I heard it would be at Homebush. Is that true? I would sooner it at the SCG.

Yes their contract still requires ANZ finals even though they got out of the h & a aspect a year early. There won't be an NRL clash so, yes ANZ.

Was a while ago now but last time we beat them there by 90ish points.
 

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Analysis Finals opponent - Best to worst outcomes

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