Finals predictions

[The Flying Belgian]

We'll win it from here. Bookmark it.

 

[dlanod]

This year looks like a Giants flag to me. They've been answering and taking on all comers. While true that they've managed to sneak a win against Hawks at the last minute, it's their persistence and not giving up that seems to stand out for me. I've noticed they seem to have this extra gear in 3rd and 4th quarters where the smalls start buzzing and opposition can't keep up with them. We struggle on this aspect as well and might potentially be our undoing. They are amazing to watch, similar to Hawks.

It's an omen of sorts that McRae won a premiership in his second year as coach and Kingsley might do the same this year.

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

 

[mpal6]

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

Yep, that comeback aspect looks exactly like Pies last year to me. GWS are just riding the wave and believing the comeback is on, bang they kick a couple and find their run along the way.

We on the other hand look defeated the moment the lead starts crumbling. Not to mention our goalkicking woes and players struggling to stay motivated / focused throughout the game.

 

[McIvor]

Carlton were getting flogged not too long ago. Freo have been on a bigger slide than us. Sydney has had losses 100 times worse than ours in the last month. Geelong just lost comprehensively to the Saints who we destroyed a few weeks back.

Not sure how two close losses fuels that logic. Yes it's disappointing the way they happened with us getting a lead and then getting run over in the last, but pretty much every other team in the top 8 has had games in the last month or two where they've been completely uncompetitive. We have not.

All counts for very little though when yes, you're right those teams have had worse losses, but those worst losses haven't impacted them like our two putrid losses when we were 5 goals up throughout the game. They are all top 4 and one of them will likely win a flag while we've failed again. I'd take a 100 point loss if it meant finishing top two and I certainly couldn't give a stuff if we were uncompetitive in any of those losses and were again top 2 or even top 4.

 

[RU_]

Actually think this ladder might play out in our favour, weirdly enough.

Carlton with significant injury woes in week 1. Geelong likely in week 2 at a neutral venue. Port in Adelaide week 3.

Hawks at the G. What a time to break the drought.




.. a lot of wishful thinking here.

 

[lionsrules]

This is not a post to say the lions are going to go all the way (because I doubt that can happen now) But with the crazy madness season that this has been it still would not surprise me if this narrative has still some playing out to do. With that in mind it wont surprise me if both grand finalists come from the 5-8 group.
based on inconsistent form over the last 10 weeks my list of most likely to least likely of the top 4 going out in straight sets is
Geelong
Port
Sydney
GWS

(I have Sydney v Geelong and Port v GWS 1st week hence that ranking)


from 5-8 (current ladder) the ones most likely NOT appearing in a prelim are ranked as:

Carlton
Hawks (think dogs will beat them first week)
Dogs
Brisbane

with those rankings as is My prelim predictions are:


Sydney V Dogs (friday night)
Giants V Lions (saturday twilight)

 

[dlanod]

Giants V Lions (saturday twilight)

Well that's a great way to ruin my weekend.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

Yes the Giants are weird. They are miles behind in all the premiership metrics. Basically if they win it all this year they will literally force Champion Data to rewrite their entire framework.

 

[Paul Mac]

Feels like we're pretty comfortably the weakest team in the 8

Weakest team? As in the worst side in the 8 or just weakest as in mentally and physically?
Only my opinion but I still think we are the most talented and dangerous list in the 8. Therefore, IMO i would nowhere near rank us as the weakest in the 8.
If somehow we can just get thinks to click for one month because it hasn't clicked all year. ( bar a game against St Kilda at Marvel but the saints were VFL level at best in that game), just one month of consistent buy in, straighter kicking, mentally locked in on our defensive structures, getting numbers around the footy when we desperately need a stoppage and not allowing opposition clearance, team orientated footy, we can maybe just maybe do it, on current form probably not but just one month of it that's all and who knows..

 

[martinson]

For us we need players fit and healthy especially Hipwood and Andrews . I can't see Payne being a factor after his layoff but just perchance he can turn up fit and well that would be a massive boost.

There's some possibility that we perk up for the finals after the week off and really kill it for a couple of weeks.

After that it's about maintaining a healthy list ,not getting stage fright and being able to sustain consistent 4 quarter efforts.

I'm hopeful without having much confidence. We're on a par with a few other teams so it's really a matter of who can turn it on on the day.

 

[McIvor]

Catching up on some of the footy shows and some pretty damning records.

First is our record at the MCG in 5 of our last 6 games there.



Second is our away record since we’ve consistently made finals since 2019



To go with our home record of 4 wins and 4 losses.

And we’re expecting to go one home win and 3 away wins when we’ve only one once away in the finals and also win at the MCG where our recent record is even worse.

Hell of an ask and completely squandered a golden opportunity all due to our past games.

 

[Hanley]

We'll win it from here. Bookmark it.

I agree. I get that sports fandom can lean towards the negative (at the end of the day the person we feel most sorry for when we lose is ourselves) but we still have a great shot here. The difference between 4th and 5th is basically one more away game, and only if we would have won week 1 to Sydney - otherwise it's instead of away, home, away, neutral we will get home, away, away, neutral. And we're probably now on the better side of the draw if results go as expected.

Still a red hot chance for mine and accuracy is some skill but a lot of luck - Champion Data often point to the fact it evens out over time. I'd have us favourites for all of Blues at home, Geelong at G (arguably neutral), Port away (probably no Houston too) and then a 50/50 GF.

 

[Dalions]

Catching up on some of the footy shows and some pretty damning records.

First is our record at the MCG in 5 of our last 6 games there.

View attachment 2085162

Second is our away record since we’ve consistently made finals since 2019

View attachment 2085168

To go with our home record of 4 wins and 4 losses.

And we’re expecting to go one home win and 3 away wins when we’ve only one once away in the finals and also win at the MCG where our recent record is even worse.

Hell of an ask and completely squandered a golden opportunity all due to our past games.

Records are there to be broken.

 

[Squizz89]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely off the back of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

 

[Dalions]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

I reckon 90-95% wrote us off after round 7 and the boys got themselves back into contention by pure guts and determination and talent and by fixing up the poor goal kicking.

We have now had 2 poor goal kicking weeks similar to the start of the year and 90-95% have written us off again.

Time will tell how we respond, but I will back them in for now.
And personally think our best football is as good as anyone’s.

 

[vic_LION]

The pre finals bye can’t come soon enough for us. After a long winning streak we’re looking tired - hard to maintain that for too long. There’s a lot of experience now coming into finals with this group, I reckon we’ll see a newly energised team coming into finals in a couple of weeks, and from there anything can happen.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I agree. I get that sports fandom can lean towards the negative (at the end of the day the person we feel most sorry for when we lose is ourselves) but we still have a great shot here. The difference between 4th and 5th is basically one more away game, and only if we would have won week 1 to Sydney - otherwise it's instead of away, home, away, neutral we will get home, away, away, neutral. And we're probably now on the better side of the draw if results go as expected.

Still a red hot chance for mine and accuracy is some skill but a lot of luck - Champion Data often point to the fact it evens out over time. I'd have us favourites for all of Blues at home, Geelong at G (arguably neutral), Port away (probably no Houston too) and then a 50/50 GF.

To be clear, I don't any real science around my claim. It just feels like it's the kind of thing that is likely to happen in this season.

 

[McIvor]

Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

I want to be proven wrong but I don't think we do; I think the loss to the Giants knocked any hope they had, it all just became too hard for them.

Even with a win or a convincing win against Essendon won't change my mind. Had we beaten Collingwood, I would have been hopeful, but that loss last Saturday was so diabolically bad that they've no hope now. Our finals record since 2019 says as much.

Its all well and good for Lachie and Harris to group them in the middle last week and be saying things like we can't let this happen again and everything else, but when one of those finals away games is in the heat battle and become all too hard, do you really reckon anyone will remember Lachie and Harris little talk in the middle of the MCG?

 

[Dalions]

I want to be proven wrong but I don't think we do; I think the loss to the Giants knocked any hope they had, it all just became too hard for them.

Even with a win or a convincing win against Essendon won't change my mind. Had we beaten Collingwood, I would have been hopeful, but that loss last Saturday was so diabolically bad that they've no hope now. Our finals record since 2019 says as much.

Its all well and good for Lachie and Harris to group them in the middle last week and be saying things like we can't let this happen again and everything else, but when one of those finals away games is in the heat battle and become all too hard, do you really reckon anyone will remember Lachie and Harris little talk in the middle of the MCG?

It may well have been a loss that shouldn’t have happened on the weekend but it wasn’t a Grand Final.
So emotionally there is no reason why they can’t bounce back.
We are still in with a chance.

 

[M Malice]

 

[McIvor]

I'm not

 

[Dalions]

I am

 

[morsie]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely off the back of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

We will get a pretty good idea this week against Essendon.We should dominate this game.If not we are not in the frame of mind to do any damage in teh finals.

 

[McIvor]

We will get a pretty good idea this week against Essendon.We should dominate this game.If not we are not in the frame of mind to do any damage in teh finals.

Are you really going to take much from this game though.

I personally think the damage is already done and nothing from this game will change my mind.

Perhaps it might if we won our home final and then the next away game and we are in good shape but geez thats a lot of water to go under the bridge if we even get the far down.

 

[martinson]

I think it all gets back to the health of our list.

Mental scars aren't an issue if you can get on a roll. It's more that we've failed in pressure situations probably more than we should have so is that because we're not quite good enough and/or don't handle those situations particularly well ? If it's the former then we're not quite good enough, if it's the latter then that's the mental battle win have to win ,which is doable.

I'm more concerned with whether we're a bit tired and spent with too many injured . Any update on Berry ? He's crucial.