Will be a fringe player. Once you get a few guns in, he will get squeezed out I think. Will be depth, or bench.
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Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II
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Maybe.
I like the fact that we invested in a young ruckman.
As for the rest - I can't help but look at Richmond, who bested us in the 2020 Grand Final and yet still managed to take 5 swings at the pinata inside the Top 30 draft selections this year.
This is the exact approach I was hoping Geelong might have manufactured 7-8 years ago now in an attempt to match our superdrafts of 99 and 01.
But we've never really committed to that kind of regeneration.
Ultimately our list for 2022 is all but shaped bar one, and we have not been static - the club has made plenty of moves both coaching and list.
But the players that have joined in the wake of our 2021 finals thrashing from premiers Melbourne will not make any significant difference to that outcome I'd have thought.
Next year will come down to the contributions of Duncan, Guthrie, Hawkins, Cameron, Henry and of course Tom Stewart - and about 8 other vital components.
I'm all in for the fast-tracking of the likes of De Koning and Evans, not to mention the '21 draftees - prepared to wait on Conway though; Ceglar was brought in for a reason; let he and Stanley fight it out in 2022 while Conway gets a bit more meat on the bones.
dazbroncos
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Great reasoning and thought process.***WARNING ⚠ THIS IS GONNA BE LONG***
After careful consideration, I thought a bit more about things this morning regarding our draft strategy, and I think on re-analysis - I understand now why we did what we did.
When I think about who we've drafted in recent years and who's left, there's been an ultra consistent pattern - they've been decently rated, the majority have been in the Top 40 picked, and they haven't been able to get a game, so they've left for more opportunity.
Since 2016, we've had all of:
Clark
Kreuger
Fogarty
Vardy
Constable
Lang
McCarthy
Thurlow
Cockatoo
Kersten
Smedts
GHS
all leave for greater opportunities/new opportunities after injury/form loss (26 or under when they left).
We've also had all of:
Kennerley
Taheny
Jarvis
Tarca
J. Jones (got picked up by the Eagles)
Schlensog
Brownless
Hayball
Gardener (got picked up by the Dogs)
be delisted without playing 10 games between all of them (JJ played 7 and Jarvis played 1).
From our 2019 draft, Evans, Stephens, and SDK have played 4 games between them. Close has been the one who has been given the most opportunity and also shown the most.
From our 2020 draft, Holmes was given some exposure, but others like Stevens have not got a look in yet.
Now this is not to say that any of this strategy has been wrong - it largely hasn't. When I think of those who have been given a decent opportunity and who still remain on our list from 2016 onwards, there's quite a large group who has been given exposure whilst our senior players are still around. I also think all the players we lost, have largely not come back to bite us, thus far - bar McCarthy.
While there are differing reasons for all this, one thing is constant - whilst young players are developing, they're largely not being given senior exposure, so they're either wanting to leave if another club wants them - or end up being delisted. On review, this is what I think this draft has focused on most.
Think of all the players we passed over - Macdonald, Sonsie, Taylor, Howes, Draper etc. Would ANY of these players have gotten a look in next year - I suspect not. They're one or two years behind in their development, when it comes to our current draftees from recent years - who we need to give exposure to as well.
So how then do you draft someone and tell them they're no chance of playing senior footy for 2 years - at least - when so many other clubs/draft experts, have rated them so highly? You can't. So then they don't make it/they ask for a trade, and the cycle continues (see GWS as a perfect example of this, and why we might get Bruhn back as soon as next year if they continue this way).
All of SDK, Stephens, Narkle, Simpson, Zuthrie, Stevens, even Schlensog if he comes back, all understand our system, are more physically developed, and can slot in much easier into our senior side - as opposed to a new developing draftee like Macdonald, Taylor, Howes etc.
So what's the best way to avoid all this? Draft either home grown talent who's from the area and knows our program, the coaches, the club, and is happy to take their time as they're not a fish out of water - like Conway, Knevitt and Whyte - or, draft ready made talent like Willis and Kroeger, who dont need any development, and can play Round 1 next year. Ollie Dempsey is a free hit, and a rookie who no-one knew about - so he's going to know he's far back in the queue and should be, too.
This is why I think we took the tact we did, and why we were so heavily linked to someone like Sheldrick. In 2 years, Conway, Knevitt and Whyte will have played a combined 4+ years of footy together - not to mention other recent Falcons like Cooper and Gryan, who have played together too. Then we add in someone like Jhye Clark next year, and suddenly you have a whole midfield of players who know each other's strengths and weaknesses, and come 2024, they're ready to play as an onball unit with some serious synergy.
The other side, is Willis and Kroeger are here for the 'now.' We'll have injuries and we'll have retirements, and they'll play either next year or 2023 (Willis I reckon plays Round 1 next year).
If you look at things this way, it kinda makes sense why we've gone the way we did. Once we have all our retirements and more spots open up, then it becomes easier to grab more highly rated players from the draft who expect to play immediately - as there's ample opportunity waiting for them (without waiting), if they're deserving of a spot.
Anyway, sorry for the long rant, haha, but these were just some thoughts I had today - when analyzing our draft strategy as a whole. Throw in covid and lack of exposure into the mix, and it becomes pretty apparent why we didn't stray too far from home/went with safer picks who don't need devleopment - as there's less risk on both fronts.
Hopefully some of these guys turn out, and I really am excited about Willis in particular.
Bring on 2022!
I think a downplayed component here is the Covid restrictions and lack of vision. Recruiters in general stuck to their own back yards - and not just Wells and Co in the Geelong region - the WA and SA clubs did the same thing largely.
Id say that they have backed themselves in to make 90% informed decisions on players they have been able to see over the duration of the year rather than say 40% informed decisions on some they have seen for 2 months or perhaps even a few games. Now.. that doesn't make the Falcons kids the best skilled or most naturally talented - there are better kids out there for sure - but at the place we were taking them it can be explained that these could be the safer picks based on the info available at the time with the value we had to get them with.
It could also go entirely pear shaped or be like the 99 draft year. We wont know until 2-3 years time in reality
GO Catters
MacStradbroke
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Richmond did lose a promising big man that they did not want to lose for one of those picks and got one from us missing out on last years pick so they’re not quite the winners made out. If you asked them right now if they could swap two of those kids picked in the 20s for Coleman-Jones and Max Holmes they‘d snap em up before you finished talking.
MacStradbroke
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My end take, and I’m usually overly optimistic on all things GFC (yes I’m pro Chris Scott). Love the Conway pick, reminds me of Riley O’Brien so if he can end up anything like him that’s a massive win. The others dunno, we’ll see. Not sure on any of them but I am 100% on board. I think we sometimes get romanced by the silky skilled player when we are only viewing highlight vids and none of these picks are that. Possibly a result of previous premiers and the way the game has headed, pure bash n crash and move the ball forward at all costs.
Plenty of well respected posters commenting on trying to get Jhey Clark next year. After watching them through their age groups, if Clark is a 9/10 then Knevitt is a 4/10, and that is not knocking Knevitt at all. Love to see Clark step up again next year as a lot of the impressive stuff I’ve seen has been done as a bottom ager so next year he really should smash them if he is to be THAT player. Thought his height may have been a slight issue but if you can play you can play.
Plenty of well respected posters commenting on trying to get Jhey Clark next year. After watching them through their age groups, if Clark is a 9/10 then Knevitt is a 4/10, and that is not knocking Knevitt at all. Love to see Clark step up again next year as a lot of the impressive stuff I’ve seen has been done as a bottom ager so next year he really should smash them if he is to be THAT player. Thought his height may have been a slight issue but if you can play you can play.
Big little cat
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Maybe also Matt Ling? For last spot
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I am surprised we haven't taken a key back so far. If Blitz and Henry both happened to be injured at the same time, what are we going to do, play Cameron or Ratugolea at CHB 
Was going to post something like these lines. Sure, they got a big draft haul, but it wasn't a free hit...
* Our 2020 1RP (Max Holmes)
* St Kilda 2RP (Higgins trade 2020)
* Gold Coast 3RP (Markov trade 2020)
* Bonus 2RP (Mabior Chol FA)
* Pick 40 (Tarrant/CCJ trade)
* Pick 27 (for 38,40, future 3RP)
To get that, they lost some decent (if not outstanding) players - CCJ would be the pick of that bunch. And while a future third doesn't hurt too much, it puts them a little behind the eight-ball in what should be the first full(ish) junior season of footy next year, when recruiters get a decent look at the talent for the first time in 3 years.
Their approach to the draft was solid, but it helps when you go from dynasty team one year to soft kill the next. Unfortunately, Geelong hasn't been known for that kind of mediocrity, so we pay the price in not getting better picks.
tielgaz
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Turn it up, ‘not knocking him but his a 4/10’. I doubt anyone in the draft is a 4/10 let alone pick 25.
Big little cat
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Very true regarding Geelong's standard draft pick ranges. This, in my view is a reason why the recruiting team look at 'left field' draftees. We are getting the cream of the draft, so we do need to think outside of box. In doing so we are hopeful we have selected say another Corey Enright but we must also accept some unfortunately won't quite make it.
MacStradbroke
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Yeah I wasn’t really knocking him or rating him a 4/10, was comparing him to another kid Ready to go next year.
There are plenty of 4s or less in every draft after a few years. Cant all make it.
Such a good point. They did really well with what they had, but as good as the 4 players they took with 17 onwards could be, are they better than what they gave up to get there?
Essentially it's:
OUT:
Holmes (our 2020 Round 1)
CCJ (Pick 27 after all was said and done)
Jack Higgins (2020 St Kilda R2 - originally took him at Pick 17 in 2017)
Chol
Markov
IN:
T. Brown
Sonsie
Clarke
Banks
Gibcus was their own Pick 9 - so they were always gonna get him. The top group vs the bottom group, however, you've gotta say is much more of a loss than the bottom group is a gain.
It remains to be seen, but if you cancel out Brown with Holmes - Holmes easily looks like he's gonna be the better pick (has all the traits to be an absolute star and has already shown a heap in both the VFL and AFL).
If you cancel out Jack Higgins with Sonsie, that's far closer - but Higgins has already shown he has ample talent, whereas Sonsie only has his underage years due to injury, and some footy for Box Hill to go off (it was a big red flag for me that the Hawks passed on him at both their picks).
If you cancel out CCJ, Markov and Chol with Tarrant, Clarke and Banks, that's two young developed talls and a half back/winger for 1 star developed tall (for only 2 years), a crumbing forward and a half back/winger. Again, looks like they're definitely losing that one too.
Will remain to be seen, and they did well with what they had, but honestly, I would far rather have kept all the players and drafted Holmes - than have the group of players they drafted (and I really wanted Sonsie and Brown).
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Who was that, Chol? They could afford to lose him imo.
I reckon if you asked them they'd be pretty happy with 5 picks in the top 30 - this way they get a list regeneration with a bunch of players all hopefully peaking at roughly the same time.
It's the exact approach I've been advocating for a long time and I'm a bit envious that the Tigers have taken that path.
Disagree. All those players they traded were fringe. They are rebuilding on the run.
Mmm, even their own supporters would disagree with that assessment, IMO. With that said, we won't know for 2-3 years whether that was right or wrong.
All I do know is, is that as a club, Richmond publicly stated they did not want to lose CCJ, Higgins and Chol. Markov they were fine with, but the aforementioned 3 they weren't ok with - particularly Higgins and CCJ who they took at picks 17 and 20 respectively, in 2017 - and then lost for Picks 27, 38 and 40 in 2020/2021.
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
Love the enthusiasm guys but can we hold the horses on Holmes a bit
It's something I've taken note of over the last few months; Let’s stop pretending like he's this superstar already, or even star.
Has he shown potential? Absolutely. But as of right now he's panicky with the ball most of the time he has it, and hasn't yet used his elite speed on the offensive side (Although he has for defensive pressure which is a good sign.
I rate him don’t get me wrong, but I’ve seen some comparisons around here saying he could be the next Danger. Without trying to spoil the party he’s shown a lot more Jordan Murdoch than Patrick Dangerfield thus far (Murdoch showed signs early days, just never amounted to much)
Wait and see as all these things are, but for both the kid himself and us as supporters let’s just slow down a bit on crowning him the second coming.
It's something I've taken note of over the last few months; Let’s stop pretending like he's this superstar already, or even star.
Has he shown potential? Absolutely. But as of right now he's panicky with the ball most of the time he has it, and hasn't yet used his elite speed on the offensive side (Although he has for defensive pressure which is a good sign.
I rate him don’t get me wrong, but I’ve seen some comparisons around here saying he could be the next Danger. Without trying to spoil the party he’s shown a lot more Jordan Murdoch than Patrick Dangerfield thus far (Murdoch showed signs early days, just never amounted to much)
Wait and see as all these things are, but for both the kid himself and us as supporters let’s just slow down a bit on crowning him the second coming.
Finally got to look at the footage of the drafts. IMO, Kroeger looked the readiest in terms of size, skills (particularly kicking) and then Willis (AFL physique already, impressive clearance work but footskills looked just okay - maybe the limited footage didn’t do justice), then Knevitt. Kroger’s injury history has me concerned so assume will be careful with him.
Others will need couple of good years in the gym. Conway, very gangly - reminds me a little of Mark Blake (queue the vitriol!)
Others will need couple of good years in the gym. Conway, very gangly - reminds me a little of Mark Blake (queue the vitriol!)
MacStradbroke
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Coleman-Jones
If we find just ONE Boris amongst this year's draft (Conway obviously excluded!) then we'll have done OK. If we get more than one, it will have been a brilliant batch.
Bingo.
If we'd had cap space, I would've given them 24 or 25 for CCJ. Massive upgrade on Esava and he's only two seasons in - would've been an automatic heir to Hawkins.
I understand your point, and I'm one of the key offenders of the aforementioned, but personally, I base this a lot more on what I saw in the VFL last year - as opposed to the AFL.
I don't usually watch a ton of VFL, but due to covid, I found myself watching every week - due to there being not much else to do, haha. From the first game, I couldn't believe just how dominant this skinny young kid who I knew nothing about, was. He was Walsh like in the territory he covered, and he was much quicker whilst doing it too.
One moment he'd be starting in the midfield and creating space where there was none, then spearing a pass through heavy traffic. Nek minnit he'd be in defence laying a tackle and getting a HTB. Five seconds later he would have pushed forward to crumb a ball in the forward 50 and create a goal.
In every game I watched, he was just head and shoulders above everyone else. For his first 3 games, he was BOG in every one of them - ahead of bigger bodied seasoned VFL performers like Constable, Narkle and Brownless. Clearly the MC thought so too, as he got a debut game in our Easter Monday clash, just 4 games in. This was a kid that was all of 74kg at 189cm - and he was already showing this much 4 games into his VFL career.
He's got speed, agility, height, good leg size, and he's a far better user of the ball than someone like Danger. That goal where he bounced up off the ground and accelerated at pace near the end of a home and away game late in the year, reminded me so much of Danger.
Now admittedly there's a very small sample size, and anything could happen from here. However, the sky is the limit with this kid, as he's skinny as right now, and he's already showing so much. He's played inside mid in the VFL rather than just being confined to the wings, so he's not just an outside player. He lays a decent tackle, so he's got grunt despite his size. And he's also the son of an Olympic track medalist, so he understands hard work and being part of the elite sporting industry (was a competitive runner himself).
When I think of what this kid could be, when he adds 10kgs to his frame over the next few years - it really is exciting and does make me get pretty hyped, as he has all the weapons to absolutely be a top tier player at AFL level.
Imagine someone with height and speed like Danger, the defensive mindset of Corey, and endurance and disposal like Walsh, - that's what I think is his possible level he could get to, if he absolutely works his butt off over the coming years (Murdoch had height and speed - but not much else).
We'll obviously see how he turns out (and I could get this completely wrong), but I haven't been this excited about a player walking through our doors since a young Joel Selwood pulled on the hoops in Round 1, 2007.
Come at me, haha
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Been a long time since our first pick was a ruckman..
I really feel like we looked at 2025 in this draft by going hard at the two early Falcons.
I think we have bemoaned the lack of commitment to draft a young ruck, now we cant say that. For the moment our petri dish is loaded and we will have to see what grows. I get the sense that we have recognised that we had tilted at windmill long enough.
100% I'd take Holmes if we had our time again. Plus, he's already got a year of development in him. Hopefully we see more of him (and Cooper S) in the starting 22 next year.
That said, Brown is hardly a bad pick. I reckon we might have picked him up if he'd slipped down to us.
As for the Tigers, they've done what they've had to do and I agree they've come up a little short - for now. But that's the thing about draft picks - you have to see how things play out. Maybe they've ultra-mega-nailed it. Hope not, but we'll find out in 3-4 years.
So, after the drafts are done and dusted we can now look at the list and also look into the future at the likely list changes coming at the end of 2022.
I’d say the following are either certain or likely to finish up -
Higgins, Dahlhaus, Selwood, Smith, Narkle, Z.Guthrie and possibly Tuohy.
That’s 4 mids, 2 back flankers and one small forward.
We are clearly also deficient in tall defenders already and probably a quality young KPF albeit Neale shows some signs.
What we do need though is elite quality. We are going to lose a fair bit of it over the next couple of years.
Reckon we just pay what it takes to get Jhye Clark. Even if that is 2 first round picks. Then look for further mid sized players as well as a KPD. A couple of decent FA’s may also be useful as I doubt we can cover all our list changes through the draft alone.
I’d say the following are either certain or likely to finish up -
Higgins, Dahlhaus, Selwood, Smith, Narkle, Z.Guthrie and possibly Tuohy.
That’s 4 mids, 2 back flankers and one small forward.
We are clearly also deficient in tall defenders already and probably a quality young KPF albeit Neale shows some signs.
What we do need though is elite quality. We are going to lose a fair bit of it over the next couple of years.
Reckon we just pay what it takes to get Jhye Clark. Even if that is 2 first round picks. Then look for further mid sized players as well as a KPD. A couple of decent FA’s may also be useful as I doubt we can cover all our list changes through the draft alone.
If we get Jhye Clark next year (which given our drafting bias towards Falcons this year/not trading our Future 1st, I'd be incredibly surprised if we didn't) - then our 2024/25 midfield starts looking a lot more impressive.
Something like:
C: Holmes, C. Stephens, Knevitt
FO: Conway, Jhye Clark, Parfitt
INT: Simpson, Whyte, Willis, O'Connor (if we want to continue his midfield development)
This is before any trade ins/FA/2023 and 2024 draft. It's not a bad start IMO (especially if Bruhn gets kept out at GWS and we bring him home end of next year)
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